For your consideration, a NSF member's SpaceX Mars in 2026 Timeline.

Hate to admit it, but the first part looks right. Masseys went straight to rebuilding to handle v3 and Pad B should be online. V3 will be available to "launch" but they're restarting the learning curve on those, so expect a series of fireballs.

Think he's off on Tanker. Need a working v3 before modifying a variant. Much time and pain before that happens.