>>514139471

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1960304012143518164

Sanctions, drones, Nord Stream - how the war collapsed Russia’s oil and gas revenues.

As in any resource-dependent economy, the main source of replenishing the Russian treasury was revenues from the export of natural resources, primarily oil and gas. The raw materials industry provided up to half of the budget’s income.

Putin’s military aggression, along with the subsequent sanctions and the loss of the Western market, led to oil and gas companies’ profits being cut in half by the fourth year of the war.

▪ According to Rosstat, in Q1 2025 oil and gas corporations earned 789.5 billion rubles compared to 1.445 trillion a year earlier.

The profitability of refineries fell almost to zero - 4.5 billion rubles, which is 23 times less than in the same period in 2024.

Redirecting exports to the Asian market and the use of the “shadow tanker fleet” does not help, with half of that fleet (426 vessels as of June) already under sanctions.

According to Financial Times, Ukrainian attacks on refineries could cause irreparable damage to Russia’s oil processing industry.

Last year, through regular but scattered raids, Ukrainian drones pushed Russia’s oil refining to a 12-year low - 267 million tons.

The current campaign is focused on all plants in key regions of consumption and processing.

Since the beginning of August, due to drone attacks:
▪ the Syzran, Novokuibyshevsk, Saratov, and Volgograd refineries (among the largest, 14.8 million tons/year) have been completely shut down;
▪ another heavyweight, Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery (13.8 million tons/year), has halted half its capacity;
▪ the Slavyansk, Afipsky, and Novoshakhtinsk refineries have been damaged.

>part 1