https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1964090520558522675

Sino-Russian Energy Cooperation and Its Implications for the EU

Key Facts
•Russia and China have agreed on a memorandum regarding the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline (50 bcm annually from the Russian Arctic via Mongolia).
•Contract parameters (price, take-or-pay, financing, timing) remain undefined, but the very existence of the memorandum carries geopolitical significance.
•China is strengthening its position as a swing player in the global gas market, while Russia is further tying its exports to Beijing.

◾Potential Implications for the EU

1. Market and Economic
•Reduced Chinese LNG demand in the 2030s (by up to –35 Mt/year) global LNG oversupply, prolonged low prices, potentially derailing new export projects in the US and Qatar.
•Increased competition for the European LNG market: suppliers unable to enter China will attempt to secure market share in the EU.
•European companies planning long-term LNG contracts face growing price uncertainty.

2. Geopolitical
•Russia has fewer incentives to return to the European market, focusing instead on the East, complicating any prospects of “normalisation.”
•China is consolidating control over global energy flows, gaining leverage not only over Russia but also over Western exporters.
•The US may tighten sanctions against Russian projects (e.g., Arctic LNG II), but the response remains unclear.

3. Strategic Risks for the EU
•Dependence on LNG: oversupply may appear beneficial (low prices) but increases Europe’s vulnerability to global fluctuations.
•Financial instability of the LNG market: the potential freezing of new projects could mean that after 2035 the EU faces a shortage of alternatives.
•China’s energy policy: Beijing is becoming a key “arbiter” of the market, and any changes in its demand will directly affect European security.
>part 1