https://x.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1955162410391658550
>#Analyse
>The coming hours are decisive for the fate of the 29% of the Donetsk region still controlled by Ukraine.
>Russian troops have, since the weekend, initially on foot or with light vehicles (motorcycles), driven a wedge approximately 18 kilometers deep into the Ukrainian defense north of Pokrovsk.
>In doing so, they have bypassed Dobropillia and reached the highway connecting Dnipro with Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
>Ukraine now has only a very small window of time to cut off and destroy these units—ideally advancing from the direction of Dobropillia.
>This would be possible if Kyiv manages to assemble a few hundred mechanized soldiers and lead them in a frontal assault, as the Russian troops currently lack FPV kamikaze drone support in this area.
>If this fails, it is to be expected that drones will soon be deployed—along with mechanized units that would secure and permanently occupy the newly captured territory.
>Should this worst-case scenario occur, the last two major cities in the region—Sloviansk and Kramatorsk—would be cut off from the greater Dnipro area and could only be supplied via Kharkiv.
>It must also be clearly stated: If Ukraine fails to eliminate a few hundred Russian soldiers—on foot and far from their own logistics—it is unlikely that the Ukrainian army can hold the region in the long term.
>We are thus in critical hours that will also have significant impacts on the morale and motivation of the remaining civilian population and Ukrainian troops in the region.
>Ukraine must now act decisively and, within a few days, recapture at least an area of approximately 15 x 5 kilometers. If this does not succeed, the cycle of thinly manned front lines and further territorial losses will continue and accelerate unchecked.
>In this case, it is highly likely that Russia will withdraw its offer of a Ukrainian retreat from Donbas in exchange for a ceasefire elsewhere.
isch over