>Possible arc
>The U.S. and its allies quietly pivot from free trade rhetoric to industrial policy nationalism. Supply chains decouple not just for chips, but for anything with strategic leverage — critical minerals, fertilizer, micro-reactors, biotech reagents.
>Middle-tier states (Australia, Chile, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, DRC) become geopolitical battlegrounds as both blocs compete for control and long-term off-take deals.
>By 2026–27, commodity inflation returns without broad consumer inflation — a stagflationary echo where “hard goods” outperform “soft economy” assets

God I love ChatGPT for analysis. Picrel seems to be actually happening, so this feels credible.

>fertilizer