did some digging and it seems youtube has change three major things that is fucking up everything.
1: if you a 10 seconds behind in a livestream you don't count to ccv
2: youtube just rolled out age verfication for the upcoming internet laws in australia and britain that are global and effect everyone. (so if you aren't verfied by the ai as an adult you don't count towards ccv or views)
3:to "fight bots" youtube is focusing more on engagement (likes, subs, memberships, comments, chatroom comments,donations etc) than watchtime.