Checked the world map of my run since I couldn't stand it any longer.
Genoa and the Pope in Colombia, Brazil has a whole million pops and it seems Portugal didn't think to bother colonizing anywhere else. Britain is colonizing East America.
In another 20 years or so I should be able to properly interact with them, get corona, and finally some fucking institutions.
Right now I am exactly as strong as Castile in terms of tax base, number of levies, and pops. That'll stop being the case when they sneeze on me.