>>41426954
“Russia Momentum / Ukrainian Pressure” (~ Moderate probability)

Russia gains incremental ground or pressure, exploiting Ukraine’s economic, manpower or material constraints. For example, analysts note Russia’s high losses but also its commitment to long objectives.
Institute for the Study of War
+2
JPMorgan Chase
+2

Ukraine struggles to sustain pace of operations (especially if Western aid weakens or logistical issues mount); this may force Kyiv to accept terms less favourable.

Russia uses both kinetic and hybrid warfare (cyber, disinformation, economic coercion) to increase leverage. The U.S. intelligence community warns Russia is accruing leverage.
Politico

Implications: A deal may be struck, but heavily skewed toward Russian aims; or Ukraine becomes locked into long -term attrition.