https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-17e9c07b-93f4-45b3-9558-7590b9eaf3ad
US stock prices tend to gradually rise in the early stages of a presidency. But in Trump’s case, they remained stagnant and progressively declined as his rhetoric over trade tariffs intensified. They suffered a dramatic drop when he unveiled a range of these import taxes, applying worldwide, on 2 April.
Trump rowed back on some of these tariffs a week later, causing a slight market rebound. But the uncertainty created by his sweeping efforts to remake global trade has been blamed for worldwide economic turbulence.
Another important consideration is how Americans feel about the economy. This question has been tracked for decades by the University of Michigan, which surveys hundreds of households each month for its Consumer Sentiment Index.
The score has fluctuated during recent presidential transitions. Under Trump, it has declined by a notable amount. Four consecutive monthly drops culminated in a score in April that was the index’s second-lowest ever. The all-time low came in June 2022, under the presidency of Joe Biden, and widespread pessimism about inflation after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Consumers in April said they were worried about a trade war, with worsening expectations around incomes, inflation and personal finances. Trump himself has refused to rule out an economic recession but has vowed that his agenda will reap longer-term rewards.
Other aspects of economic performance are harder to assess at this stage – including inflation, which the US Federal Reserve has suggested could rise again as a result of Trump’s tariff policies.