It's the Classic tale:

Fortune (Georgia, Belarus, Crimea)
-> causes
Hybris ("nobody can stop me! Time to take all banan!")
-> causes
Transgression (full-scale attempt to annex Ukraine)
-> causes
Nemesis (every Western country acting upon the realization "ziggers, ziggers never change")
-> causes
Calamity (see russian economic/demographic figures... except you can't, because they've been censored)