5. America’s Strategic Interests

He posits that the U.S. wants Russia back under its sphere of influence, separated from China, by engineering a situation where both Russia and Ukraine lose. So far, this strategy isn’t working.

6. Meetings Will Force Recognition of Legitimacy

A potential meeting in Minsk could force Russia to acknowledge Zelensky’s legitimacy, undermining prior Russian rhetoric. Previously, meetings might have bolstered Putin’s legitimacy; now they risk the opposite.

7. Nothing Will Be Signed—The War Will Decide

Girkin expects the entire peace process to be a Pyrrhic exercise leading to nothing. Real decisions will come only on the battlefield, and the war, not diplomacy, will determine the outcome.