>>23317920
If you're a adherent of the Talmud, 1/3. If you're not a hook nose, it's 50/50. Jewish math dictates that when flipping 3 coins (with clipped edges) previous events count towards future outcomes. Humans know that previous events can identify a trend, but only have limited bearing on future outcomes; flipping a coin is always 50/50 no matter how many you flip. You also aren't picking a ball, you picked a box. You picked a box and then grabbed a gold ball. There's 2 boxes with gold balls, you're in one of them.