I spent a lot of time dicking around with various rolls in between other activities today but came to three conclusions:
1) Numerical performance means something beyond just "higher = good" - I intend for the rolls to actually correlate to race position, so a visual schema is needed to keep track of all the various shenanigans in this event. See pic for current abstracted race positioning, separated into bands. Only Hippomedon and Hyper are listed for now; you'll note that Hippomedon's excellent performance has moved him a rung above Hyper's (also excellent performance)
You'll additionally note that there a "spacer" between bands, worth 10 performance units. Basically, it takes some significant overperformance to move up a slot.
2) I shouldn't roll behind the scenes at the same time I'm introducing new mechanics - this is confusing and may create the appearance of impropriety on my part. Better to roll openly and slowly through regular post updates.
3) I forgot to give Nicodromus a legitimate counterattack (which I will handle in a short post) and made a couple of other minimal errors elsewhere in roll calculations, but nothing that would change events so far.