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Geopolitics & Economy
>>> Refinery campaign: Ukrainian strikes disrupted about 17% of Russia’s refining capacity (near 1.1 million bpd). Fuel shortages grew in several regions.
>>> Syzran Oil Refinery, Samara Oblast: five drones damaged the AVT-6 primary unit, the L-35-6 secondary unit, and a pumping station. Processing fell sharply.
>>> Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery, Rostov Oblast: satellite images showed heavy damage across the western tank farm. Up to 16 tanks were destroyed or gutted. The main blaze went out; minor flare-ups were reported later.
>>> Oil markets: global prices rose after the latest attacks on Russian energy assets. Traders priced in additional risk to exports.
>>> Politico outlined five high-risk conflicts over the next five years. The Ukraine war remained a central trigger for escalation paths.
>>> Bloomberg argued that EU membership could give Ukraine a stronger security shield than a slow NATO track.
>>> The Washington Post reported that Kyiv assessed a possible front-line freeze as one of several scenarios. Officials did not confirm a decision.
>>> Financial Times warned that European concessions to Trump would weaken deterrence and Europe’s future stability.
>>> Russia’s economy: analysts forecast a recession risk and the worst harvest in 17 years as war costs, sanctions, and strikes on infrastructure compound.