You need to remember that politics largely works on vibes these days. The overall impression, especially high-profile events and flashpoints, dominate narratives and opinions even if they aren’t actually representative.

So here are a few vibes:

(1) Anti-woke backlash. This isn’t trans specific, but it’s been a long time coming. I think even /tttt/ will agree that woke culture hit a point of true absurdity within the last 5 years. Things like “latinx” getting promoted as more tolerant language when even latino people don’t like it. Things like Harvard students complaining that the bahn mi in their dining hall is cultural appropriation. And, for our part, things like “birthing persons” or “people who lactate” replacing “women” to be trans inclusive.

(2) Bad trans optics. Megahons winning swimming competitions. Gigahons screaming in Gamestop. Dodecahons demanding that their balls get waxed. Even people who aren’t terminally online know of these. Most recently, we even have shooters. Again, it does not matter if it’s unrepresentative; these are the instances that live in the public’s head.

(3) Lies. When we were at peak trans, there were some genuine lies which were not only being held up as truth—but to even question them meant you were a Transphobic Bad Person who should be fired. I don’t mean “they’re really a woman and not a man,” that’s just semantics. I mean lies like “puberty blockers are completely reversible with no long-term consequences.” I mean lies like “nobody would actually claim trans status just to get away with mischief.” I mean lies like “there is no such thing as social contagion as a cause in some cases.”

(4) Scapegoating. As another anon pointed out, the trans population makes for a relatively convenient target / distraction. Public opinion going south is, to some degree, a deliberate tactic in that regard. But it’s only possible with (1), (2), and (3).