Thread 151521586

so you're saying there's a chance edition

nba is back baby!

>>151500998
3 out of 3 wins. Sun won 2-0 and McNally won in a 2-1 but both of her set wins were pretty convincing. Glad I noticed that Timofeeva immediately entered another tournament after winning in Portugal. Grant destroyed her. It wasn't even close.


Picks for Wednesday:

Dzumhur to beat Moutet @2.5

Sun to beat Wang @1.55

Mboko to beat Lys @2.1

>>151521586 (OP)
Goys, the Bears are getting 6.5 points against a possibly Lamar-less Ravens. They've won 4 in a row. Is this bait?

>>151522592
Yes

What is the least Jewish online sports book?

>>151522592
Easy money.

>>151522852
from least most kiked
fanduel
draftkings
bally
mgm
epsn
caesars
rivers
365
fanatics

>>151522592
jackson is playing.
but lets pretend hes not. as soon as its announced the line will drop to -3.5 ravens and you can hedge out.

>>151521534
Spamming overs was inspired today.

Bolivar & Club America mccombo @1.92

>>151523511
i didn't win. i lost my bankroll on over 0.5 in kairat almaty - pafos

>>151523570
Before or after the disallowed goal?

>>151523721
>the disallowed goal

Imo i've never seen a worse display of "football" than what the slugs of slavia prague practiced in their last 0-0 at home to mighty Zlin, so Scatalanta should win tomorrow @1.45. Then, i saw a little clip of a Bodo/Glimt player saying when the harsh weather comes they can feel their opponents are struggling and that they are better than them (see 6-2 v roma), that is if they play in norway. But they're still an over team, even if they got outplayed twice in away games (to crvena zvezda and olympiakos) , in both being outshot like 23 to 1. And Galata had struggled to a norwegian team before, to Molde, in qualifiers 2 seasons ago, so could be again a game with goals where both give and take, so over 3.5 there @1.90 . Think Real wins again @1.47 , and Shitpool also @1.60 . In Sporting v Marseille over 2.5 or btts @1.33 cause "OM" is an over team now, so i expect 2-1 , 1-2 . I expect Chelsea to destroy Ajax BUT could be also an over game so over 3.5 @1.97 and Bayern Brugge also a game with at least 4 goals, over 3.5 @1.68 .
Odds total @28
Add for thursday FCSB v Bologna @1.67 . Odds already fell like crap, they were 1.80 and before that even 2.00 ; it's a vegetable soup of vs a real team. I think 0-3 correct score.
Red Star Belgrade is a fantastic team and at struggling Braga to score one goal is worth a shot, so zvezda over 0.5 @1.44 on the coupon to bring it to a total odds @67
Roma @1.39
Lech Poznan away at amateurs @1.26
With these two is @117

Chargers -

Panthers +
Eagles -
Bengals -
Browns +
Falcons -
Ravens -
Niners +

Saints +
Colts - (free)
Cowboys +
Steelers +

Kc -

esta posible de club america goleadores. mas de 2.5 , 3.5 i 4.5 equipo totales

correcto resultado 5-0

¿america gañar 5-0 in 5 minutos?
VAMOS

2-0 3-0 de primo tempo

Aspinall by sub

Merda

>to play so horrendous
I don't think there's ever been a team or a player who hasn't dissapoint ne

Ok rommy i gave in and gsve Stake my passport to use the 34 bucks i had on there (from them).
Normally I wouldnt bet CL for profit but yknow, I dont like todays games but the one game i thought seemed interesting to bet was sporting marseille. Surprisingly Msrselle were @3.25 underdogs when i first looked, looked up their injuries and they have some missing players but not all of them seem important. If they can field the team vs le havre today that seems decent, where ive actually heard of most of the players.
So back to the same old tricks it is, 30 bucks on Marseille o1.5@2.31, 4 bucks on Marseille @3.25. Hopefully no red cards for me.

If i get a bankroll going on stake from this I thought Fenerbahce vs Stuttgart looked the most interesting on thursday. What do you think there, and about Stuttgart o.1.5@2.19? If the odds on total match goals over 2.5 were better than @1.60 i might have been more interested in that.

did my european bets for europa league and comfyrence league.

games are on thursday.

>>151529718
Norway bro, this is what i wrote about fenercrapche about 2 weeks ago
>Fenerbahce is no longer a team, but a pile of turkish garbage
After mourinho left they're dead in the water

You'd say "who the fuck quotes himself?" . Remember when Munar chocked to injured, barely moving Djokovic?
https://archive.4plebs.org/sp/search/text/Munar/country/RO/
>archives
>munar
>by romanian poster
What did i call him, months in advance? A bum gladiator?

fucks sake second yellow for diving

>>151535515
>from penalty to red card

>>151536013
Dunno if marseille can counter in a second goal with 10 men, but since its the first bet it would be sad to instantly get owned by a red card so I cashed out the biggest bet for a 5 dollar loss and tossed it on Stuttgart over 1.5. Surely i wont be red carded two games in a row.
Feels like theres even more red cards nowadays than a few years ago when i kept getting owned by red cards

disgraceful tottenham slurper

>>151536066
Ok, but don't do that ever again : cashing out on a loss. Cause you'll die if the initial bet comes through. It's ok now for 30€ if you're just testing stuff. I'm sure it's not life or death for you. Btw norway my biggest regret in all these years posting here is not being more supportive of you when you were betting that high stakes. Wasn't even envy, i just hated that you bragged without posting the slips before the match. And i was wrong cause i myself don't feel like posting important bets and risking to be ridiculed on top of losing a ton of money. In a sense, i feel responsible for your bad run at the time, as you said yourself back then and i hope you forgave me. :(

Scatalanta on the permablacklist, next to medvedev.

>>151522427
Mboko won in a super lopsided 2-0. Looks like she's finding some form again. Might take her to win a set against Rybakina if Rybakina presumably beats Fernandez. But Dzumhur lost in a quick 2-0. Couldn't even win a single game in the second set. Great effort against a player who just played a final and had to travel from Kazakhstan. I got the date wrong for Sun. She plays tomorrow so still waiting on that outcome.


Picks for Thursday:

Opelka to beat Van de Zandschulp @1.85

Seidel to beat Putintseva @2.35

Gracheva to win a set against Bencic @2

I would take Gracheva to win the whole match but I fear that Bencic might retire. She seemed injured in her match against Paolini in Ningbo. Not sure she has had enough time to properly recover since then.

Toluca maybe

OK, deportivo toluca @2.17 worth a shot

I just dont know how the cowboys lose to the broncos this week. Everyone's on the broncos and I just cant see it

>>151536743
Yeah that was a nutty parlay, almost made a lot of money tailing you

>>151540415
Yeah. And there's so many games today you don't even know where to start

>>151536830
Very strong gg

mboko 3.70 but i haven't got the highest faith in it

>>151545928
You mean Seidel?

>>151546196
Yes, I think the odds are bit too high. Mboko has been pretty bad since winning Montreal but the odds have reached a tipping point where she's worth betting on again. But I'll only take a set win as I said. This looks like a Rybakina 2-1 to me.

>>151522852
>>151522992
mgm is actually extremely jewish

NBA just heemed itself with betting there's going to be a big ass investigation and crackdown

>>151547876
dont be silly. im sure they caught eveyone this time

>>151547876
rozier salary is $25M. whats his motivation?

>>151548038
He's got mob debt

For all the harm they did this year FCSB (known as wcsb) deserves to get raped today. I lost money on every single game they played this year. When i put overs they defended a 1-0, when i bet on them they conceided from all the literal whos. Personally i'm on Bologna win and overs (2+ 3+ 4+ 5+) with a vengence. They are playing "Baba Al Hassan" as centre back, who's a mediocre midfielder and will be solely responsible for like ... 3 goals today.

>>151547876
starting to think blind under player props is a viable strat.

All sports rigged

>>151548106
These are Italians theyll probably stop at 2 0 at best, if they even win.

>>151546255
Yep, 2 0 and never in doubt. But I meant it rather in general, your picks are good.

>>151548240
I have a feeling that player Thijs Dallinga will score a hattrick.

Of all the Europa League 1st games favorites, only Braga is fielding a full strength team, the rest are resting at least 2-3 main players.
Also Braga at home vs weaker Red Star @2 is good value. Small leftovers bet on Braga -1 @3.25 too.

>>151548600
Bro 3 goals Bologna is just a 3 odd, doesnt seem value at all idk
>>151548641
Lost all respect for Braga when they played Levski this year and barely beat them in ET

>>151548600
one goal one assist in 12 min

Romania bro is cooking

meanwhile stuttgart havent done shit so far, ugh

>>151548815
>>151548824
Bro i'm sick. Ball was at Orsolini and him and Dallinga escaped 2 v 1 with the keeper and instead of passing to Dallinga for a tap in, Orsolini shot directly at the keeper.

>>151548995
Stuttgart doesnt seem like its it, so i changed my mind, think ill yolo for a big strasbourg win since it seems like one of the few games where its one way traffic and still 0-0.
GL

>>151548995
Had Fermin hattrick @61 vs Olympiacos marked, reconsidered and took Rashford hattrick instead

>>151549033
They woke up though

Bologna could be 4 0 up already these bastards

>>151549033
GL la
>>151549046
So you lived through that horror. Had a feeling Mastantuono might get his first goal in that game at Levante. At ~3.00 iirc. I rekt my bankroll on over 0.5 in first half in benfica rio ave. Mastantuono scored.
>>151549083
I'm afraid they'd get a second yellow. Anyways this >>151548995 will come back to haunt me as i did put the correct goalscorer, 2+ and hattrick

varga will score against portugal but miss a pen against salzburg

If you have a hunch, put something on it. Better lose on Mbappe anytime goalscorer tonight than on over 0.5 in a game in India the next morning.

betting isnt for me anymore :)

I need Stuttgart goal from el Hanus @7

Orsolini fucking faggot

>>151549516
Did u hit ur big ween

i need another goal in this salzburg match

the absolute state of aston villa too kek

how is the lpl so bad brooo
how did top esports get 2-0'd by both korean teams

You were right Bulgaria. Shitalians are protecting the lead. Wcsb had 20 minutes where they look dead, that was our chance but Orsolini wanted to score. I'll be in a mental hospital mumbling "orsolini"

>>151549664
Wasn't even close. GenG will win worlds this year finally

The great Orsolini missed a tap in into the empty net not even making this up

Brooo Stuttgart so helpless come on man

>>151549863
He hit the post before being subbed off like a bitch

Is there a worse feeling than bet365 closing the bets and then opening them with nothing having happened

what do you think about btts+O2.5 young boys/ludogorets

>>151550108
I like it

anyway it was fun placing some bets after god knows how long. was bad game selection by me, should have picked brann or fiorentina over 1.5 instead today, both between @2 and @2.2.

Scottish teams got owned today so maybe you guys could keep an eye on how celtic-sturm graz goes, im going out for a walk

I put on roma 1.33, lech poznan 1.27, freiburg 1.52 and in feyenoord panathinaikos over 2.5 or btts 1.40 for total @3.56 - 20 €

Even Midjtylland .
Or CRAIOVA. Who the fuck is Noah? The big boogeyman "Noah" oooooo i'm so scared

>>151550144
Your best results were when you spammed goals across multiple games and then waited for red dots from all angles. Remember

fuck roma

Also just wanna share my latest thesis. There's different types of football games, and even thou it doesn't mean necessarely some have goals and some are slurpers, it's important to recognize which type of game are you on. So there's what i'd call modern games, where the pitch is good, the teams have quality, there's good lightning from the stadium, etc. Like the UCL games, or Real v Barca, or Liverpool v Bournemouth. Teams know what to do, they pass the ball with precision, and create well drilled chances, that are only stopped by the well organized and disciplined defence of the other team. And then there's the lumberjacks that play hoof ball, usually in a swamp with a ref that stops the play every 20 seconds. Usually here the goal arrives from a penalty from VAR. The passes are not precise, and you'll get the infamous 4 minutes of extra time every single time cause while you desperately need a goal, the ref wants to end this without any more events to catch his bus. For Chelsea v Liverpool when you win with a goal in extra time, when does the goal arrive? In 90+7. But in Banik Ostrava v Mlada Boleslav we never get to the 7th fucking minute, do we? So i think it's important to recognize where on this spectrum does your game sits on.

>>151550598
Fml

Already preparing the weekend.
>Antwerp v Club Brugge @1.57
I think antwerp have such an abysimal team atm, and club brugge come after playing bayern away, so this will feel so much easier here. They don't have another game to focus, so from what they shown this season Club Brugge is BY FAR the better team (and could even get 0-2 0-3 at half time)

>Galatasaray @1.44 v Goztepe
That is unless "Bekiroglu" or "Kurtulan" or "Bayir" have something to say.

>Metaloglobus v Craiova @1.52
The team who got a fluke win over FCSB with: an offside goal, a goal gifted at var, and a stolen goal of fcsb at var, are still not good and in last place for a reason. Whatever Craiova do tonight in europe, they are capable of rotation, and will field their best possible 11, with captain Bancu on the left for example. So expecting to get the job done here, 0-2 or 0-3

>>151548253
Thanks. Took a break because I was tilting and not hitting anything but think I've been doing a little better again lately.

>Fortaleza v Flamengo @1.65
This game comes between their tie with Racing in libertadores semifinals, but since they won the first leg 1-0 they might feel they can take this league game seriously also, to secure another 3 points in the tight race with Palmeiras for the title. And Fortaleza are on that place for a reason.

>>151550108
>>151550130
a nice hit. now i just need a 3rd goal in this exeter-plymouth match

>Lecce v Napoli @1.50
Saw their whole game in CL and they were actually doing alright, just that PSV were on fire at home with some meme goals and a red card and at one point they stopped caring, so expecting De Bruyne and Conte to bounce back at the weekend. Lecce are not good, as we all know, they usually need teams like AC Milan to get 2 goals disallowed every time they play against them just to lose by 1 goal. So 1-2 here for Napoli my prediction

>>151536830
Sun and Seidel both won convincingly. Opelka won 2-1. Traded two close tiebreaks and then got the first and only break of the whole match in the third set. Only thing that didn't work was Gracheva. She actually had a lead in the first set but of course fell apart pretty quickly.


Picks for Friday:

Berrettini to win a set against De Minaur @1.8

Volynets to beat Zhang @2.35

Mboko to win a set against Rybakina @2.05

Selekhmeteva to beat Friedsam @1.4

I also kind of want to take Sun to beat McNally but the odds are bit too low for my liking. Think Sun is on a roll here and I will probably take her to beat Seidel in the next round if they both win their upcoming matches.

>Mazatlan v Club America @1.63
Even if they were slugs in the last game, they did get the win in the last minute and with key players like Saint Maximin always able to make the difference, Club America still have a top team capable of getting these wins. 0-1 prediction

>Ind. Rivadavia v River Plate to qf @1.44
Esta un semifinal de copa argentina, per un estadio neutro. Vamos River ganha (qualificao)

Over 5.5 in Avalanche v Hurricanes @1.76

And Al Ittihad v Al Hilal, being a saudi game, has potential for overs.
Over 3.5 @1.97 and onwards
Could be like 2-5
over 6.5 @10. you'd look good hitting odds 10, don't you think? ;)

took Vikings team total O20.5 @ +100

Checky unit on LDU to win tonight @3.6

>>151551376
>they can take this league game seriously
today I heard flamengo is not taking some of the the starting players to fortaleza.

>>151553430
Oh, thanks. Will wait for lineups then
>>151553401
Madman. What are the chances Palmeme scores 3 at home now?

>>151552521
Rip. Don't bet on Vikings this season

>>151557736
>What are the chances Palmeme scores 3 at home now?
IDK.

>>151552521
Imagine betting on Carson Wentz to win

>>151546196
lost
oh well

>>151558295
Fucking cuckson intz couldn’t even hit 150 passing yards.

Do I have to understand this line?

Added some more picks to those posted above to create the Family Parlay for the weekend: (16 legs @354)
Partizan @1.28 v Mladost
Al Ittihad v Al Hilal | over 3.5 @1.97
AC Milan @1.32 v Pisa
Ind. Rivadavia v River Plate to qf @1.44
Mazatlan v Club America @1.53
M'gladbach v Bayern @1.28
Chelsea @1.41 v Sunderland
Brest v PSG @1.35
Brentford v Liverpool @1.75
Benfica @1.19 v Arouca
Metaloglobus v Craiova @1.53
Antwerp v Club Brugge @1.57
Arsenal @1.45 v Crystal Palace
Galatasaray @1.43 v Goztepe
Tondela v Sporting @1.28
FCSB @1.53 v UTA

>>151561885
lamar jackson is playing

Texans Saints cowboys packers

Texans Saints cowboys steelers

Live bet currently ht Montana - Arda Bulgarian first league. 3.1 Montana to win, they play well but get very unlucky in their matches whilst Arda is in a total form hole

Bremen - berling over 2.5
Heereenveeneen - Breda - over 2.5
all erste divisie games over 1.5
milan to win

took BTTS+O2.5 in termalica-zaglebie polish league match. finished 1-1 i am absolutely seething. 1H goal called off for offsides. get a penalty to even it up. then a red card at 70th minute, but they waived off the penalty shot. then the ref only gives 5 minutes added time.

>>151562378
...and?

>>151563832
>Heereenveeneen - Breda - over 2.5
they're slurping

world series spread, dodgers - 1.5 games @ 1.71
jays win 1 maybe 2, dont see any way this gets to 6 or 7 with the way the dodgers are pitching now.

>>151565720
and the bears suck.

anyone know why the capitals/blue jackets game is priced so evenly?

>>151563832
>Bremen - berling over 2.5
i feel physically ill for taking this one. ruined an otherwise good day.

>>151551675
1 win and 3 losses. Only thing that worked was Selekhmeteva with the lowest odds. Rough day. Definitely think Mboko could have won that second set. Even had a set point. Just wasn't clutch enough. Volynets and Zhang both with a disgusting chokefest. Zhang had plenty of opportunities to close out the match but always let Volynets back into the match. Yet Volynets was still too bad to take advantage of it.


Picks for Saturday:

Humbert to beat Davidovich-Fokina @1.6

Noskova to beat Rybakina @2.75

Been fading Rybakina a a lot lately. Going for it again here because by beating Mboko she has successfully qualified for the tour finals. Given that he has spent a lot of time on court lately and has already won a trophy last week I assume she will take it more easy now until the tour finals. Watch her dismantle Noskova in a quick 2-0 now.

>>151567345
In my experience with NHL, a bullshit line means:
>the books know something, so don't question it.
Basically, what they know is that the underdog is winning.
For example, they had the Preds at like -142 ML over LA last year for no apparent reason. The Preds were terrible and LA was rolling. Preds cruised.
That said, I'm just making a general point. Maybe Lindgren will be in net, Columbus can score, and it's in Columbus. But if you think the line's totally wrong, I'd be wary.

Kind of want to go for Zverev to beat Musetti in Vienna but Zverev has been so shit most of the year I can't bring myself to actually bet on him.

>>151565720
I was thinking the same thing. Already put money on the Bears though. The over on points seems legit though, both teams play ass defense.

Its so retarded I can gamble on college football through robinhood (my investment app) from Japan

>>151569435
Also im the draft kings guy and what is it 5 months out? Spent $20k in year out shorts on dk a month ago. Im convinced trump is going to ban this gambling shit and he should

>>151569615
yea because the books cant afford to grease him, right?

>>151569615
It shouldn't be this widespread and its actually killed vegas' tourism so if trumps smart he will ban it.

>>151569655
They really can't. He's an aging god emperor with infinite money at this point. His goal is the empowerment of humanity. He will snap his fingers and fuck the evil empire

>>151569723
It should be Vegas and maybe some special zones. There needs to be some shame attached to it

>>151569779
just like he wanted to do with universities like harvard? their endowment is a fraction of what books make and he has barely effected them. they kissed the ring and he already forgot. you are delusional if you think the books wont kiss the ring and play his corruption game too.

>>151569908
He literally withdrew funding and browbeat them into not being subversive anti American opposition factories. How is that relevant faggot

>>151569947
so he didnt snap his finger and shut down an entire institution like you claimed. they still exist and function today. literally nothing happened. and harvard was one institution that he hated with a passion. hes never going to snap his finger and end gambling when he couldnt even do it to a university. books can afford to pay him and congress off.

>>151570033
Would you suck gamblings dick if give. The opportunity. Like a physical manifestation a sexy slot machine with female features and a 6 inch penis hard? Sounds like you would. You gobble up the chips damn well knowing they dont fit down your esophagus

>>151570033
You'd fellate a slot machine

>>151570063
im not naive enough to think congressmen will suddenly put moral ideals ahead of money but you do whatever you want.

>>151570218
Pretty outdated cynical way of viewing things. The republican party is pretty monithic nowadays besides like 2 really gay libertarian guys. Trump and his guys will bully any dissenters. Im sure they'll grab some dems too

>>151569615
>Im convinced trump is going to ban this gambling shit
kek

>>151569723
>its actually killed vegas' tourism
Vegas killed itself when its response to gaming competition was to decrease spending on non-gaming amenities and increase the house edge by adding dogshit variants of games that already exist online. Making yourself less unique of a destination is not a good answer to competition when the only reason your competition is thriving is its closer proximity to the customer base. I can lose my ass at blackjack on the inernet. I can’t chill at Caesars on the inernet.

These are the same establishments that have spent decades spending more money chasing card counters than they’ve actually lost to said card counters. They are shortsighted and quick to the trigger. It’s a good way to get shot in the foot.

>>151570938
this guy fucking get it.

im with the weeb on this. gambling needs to be banned and driven back into the isolation of the nevada desert. y'all cant handle it

>>151571362
Even if you completely ignore basic marketing strategies and simply talk about probabilities, Vegas is retarded. They have a money printer that is statistically weighted heavily in their favor, and it is fueled solely by bringing more people to the casinos. Instead of expanding their customer base beyond the one established for them decades ago, they aim to milk a dwindling one even further? It’s the equivalent of a cafe cutting its menu and staffing in half and seeing a decrease in expenditures as profit. This is the sort of thing people give private equity firms so much shit for. They purchase a struggling business, cut expenditures, and then sell the “now profitable” business to an unwitting dope while making off like bandits. It is horrendously idiotic.

Virginia Tech vs. Cal is funny because the line might as well be -5000 for VT. 2-5 vs. 5-2 where the 2-5 in the same division is all time chungus bait

Damn I knew the jays were winning this year should have put some on them 4 months ago

You gambling freaks are all annoying as fuck. They never should have legalized it, they never should have given you airtime, they never should have put your logos everywhere, never should have ran your unrelenting ads, never should have taken your money, never should have let you have a seat at the table. You all never shut the fuck up about it. You've taken over and raped to death whatever little good was left in sports fandom. Not only are you ruining sports, you're ruining the economy, you're ruining public discourse, you're propping up criminals and enabling evil. You're all worse than a plague. I hope it's ruining your lives, and when shit hits the fan I hope you are all publicly shamed like the compulsive asocial addicts you are.

>>151575297
casinos are owned by incompetent retards now. The old hard rock in vegas is now divided between 28 companies, it is a hilton property with some native american group running the gaming, and its labeled a Virgin brand. Too many leeches got into vegas and sucked as hard as they could without providing anything other than the money to get their leech spot. These retards also hire more retards because they don't understand how businesses are supposed to run. The word kakistocracy defines casino management talent. Retards who run off players and talent while making brilliant decisions like let's close the poker room lol let's get rid of the comps lmao

The /pol/pill is that its also purposefully done so gambling in countries outside of America becomes more profitable.

>>151577068
Genuinely go blame the small hat tribe from the middle east

>>151577068
>I hope
KWAB

betMALTHUSIANS run this webzone and also your world

>>151577068
>frogposter can only bitch and moan
Like clockwork.

>>151567776
Noskova got a walkover because Rybakina withdrew. Knew she would take it easy after qualifying for the finals but didn't think she would immediately withdraw. Definitely think she would have lost now if she had actually showed up to play.

>>151577080
>The /pol/pill is that its also purposefully done so gambling in countries outside of America becomes more profitable.
I would be pleased if Monte Carlo got big again. Idgaf about Macao since those dorks only care about baccarat. French roulette deserves more love than whatever quintuple zero monstrosity Shitting Bull and Bergstein are dreaming up.

Doyers go 4-1 so they can win at home this is so easy
>omg the jays won by 7 game one hurry go bet the jays
Chaim your tricks are stale

kyoto sanga vs kashima antlers under 2.5 goals @ 2.00

championship predictions for today

premier league

>>151581516
Where did you get these comical probabilities from?

>>151581561
Elo ratings with a few other factors thrown in.

Osnabruck plays the bottom ranked team with 6 losses in a row today.

Alrighty, imo it's a good game to try some bayern overs 3+ 4+ 5+

>>151582205
those top vs bottom games can be tricky - borussia could play super tight and just focus on defending.

>>151577541
Sharing this now because I suspect that the line will drop: Noskova to beat Bencic in the Tokyo final @1.85

Bencic has spent way more time on court than Noskova. Having to grind out several 3-set matches. Looked like she didn't have much energy left at the end there against Kenin.

>>151582417
Ironically, the red card did more harm

Why does it have to be 0-0 ??

>>151584512
i can see there maybe being just one goal here. I laid the draw, but I cashed out and made 70p. I'm not sure what way this game will go.

>>151584557
It's Jackson's fault. He's there useless. I hope he never walks again.

Any cheeky college bets today

Jackson and Olise and all these fucking faggots who did fuck all. 45 minutes 0-0. That first goal was pivotal to open the flood.

>>151577576
love me some french roulette

sweating a bet on the welsh league

UVA to cover?

After that broncos game idk who's jewing who anymore

Leksand-Djugarden O5.5 goals @ -118

Since i put the last k on bayern 2+ @1.38 at 0-0, managed to break even. It's ok i guess

>>151586170
do you not lay off your bets on an exchange?

>>151586852
What does it mean?

Saints upset bucs

need a brighton goal

Revenge spot javonte Williams at broncos over 1.5 tds for +475

BREAKING
Take Al Nassr team totals: 4+ @2.37 and 5+ @4.00
Their opponents team's chief shepard just reported the herd lost the team's favourite sheep.

>>151585692
>>151586127
2 hot turds

That fucking arab chant gives me mogadishu flashbacks

blue jays have the best winning % in mlb as the books home underdog and the books dog in general. going to be a sweaty bet in you bet against them today with the bottom of the lineup batting .400.

Var will save live, bet your house on them

>>151562378
Lamar ruled out vs Bears for anyone thinking about betting this.

>Arkansas
>South Florida

Just absolute disasters. RIP to my day.

>>151595060

Add SMU to that as well. God damn.

Swear i only posted garbage lately

>>151595023
Also, fucking knew it. You don't go from your first practice in weeks on Monday, to playing a full NFL game on Sunday. The Ravens even retroactively changed Lamar's practice status on Friday from Full Practice to Limited Practice. Either Lamar woke up today with some soreness he didn't have the day before, or the Ravens are pulling some bullshit.

>>151567776
Both picks ended pushing. Already talked about Noskova and Humbert retired once he was down in the second set. Seemed to have issues with his back. Wasn't really aware of that or I obviously wouldn't have picked him. What would have likely been a win and a loss turned into two voids. Lots of retirements in general lately. Plenty of players who are struggling physically near the end of the season.

Picks for Sunday:

Fonseca to beat Davidovich-Fokina @1.7

Sun to beat Li @2.1

Obviously on top of Noskova to beat Bencic. Line seems to have barely changed which surprises me a bit. See Noskova @1.8 now.

>>151568647
By the way Zverev won 2-0. Wasn't even particularly close. Knew it was about time for him to have a decent showing again but was too scared to go for it. Typical.

What did y'all get Chicago at? I got $260 at +265

Lol no contest in aspinall fight. Dirty Gane poking eyes

>>151601684
You finna boutta hedga?

>>151602105
I don't believe my brick and mortar casino does hedges and I am not interested anyways

>>151553430
Colombia, I took Flamengo

You know what i realised? Not all tips i posted itt lost. There's still 6 games left from the ultimate acca. If your bookie/ trader accepts it, this is the bet. :)

>>151602533
you dont tell them you just go place a $400 bet on the ravens and make at least $30

In our league today, one game was stopped at VAR in first half for a total of 6 minutes and 12 seconds. (because we bought the cheapest var technology). The ref, who is the goofy son of another ref, awarded 5 minutes of extra time for the 1st half. Not even 6, but also it's not like the rest of the time it was played in supersonic speed and there was some other time wasting as well. He gets paid, no events, goes home.

>>151604001
Or just let my bet play out and win $689 if they win. It's all the casinos money anyways

>my buckeyes have a bye
>throw my typical $50 OSU money on IU instead
>win $200
>about to win another $100 on a 3 game O 48.5 with ass to mouth and lsu being the last leg
I won the bye

jonathan taylor over 102.5 rushing yards @ 1.90
i know this is a high line but the titans are missing important players in their defense and hes dominated the titans over his career

>>151611558
The only problem is winning too hard and them putting in other running backs. Taylors rushing yards was the last leg of my +5000 bet last week and i only got it because he had a 21 yard run to seal the game when they only needed 5 to run out the clock

>>151602549
>Palmeiras x Cruzeiro
X2 @ 1.9
IDK if palmeiras is using the starting 11, but even if they do; those players should be fatigued. Also Cruzeiro is a strong team.

>In 2024, US sports betting revenue reached $13.71 billion, a 25.4% increase from 2023’s record of 11.04 billion.
>In addition, the fall sports calendar propelled legal sportsbooks to their most lucrative quarter on record for the sixth year in a row, earning $3.66 billion, up 7.3 percent from the previous record set in Q4 of 2023.
>Both New Jersey and Illinois exceeded $1 billion in annual sports betting revenue for the first time.

it grows

>>151614315
Can you post or link historical charts going decades back?

>>151596765
Atrocious picks for both WTA finals. Sun choked away the first set in a tiebreak and then gave up in the second set. Noskova couldn't even put up a fight against a tired Bencic. Laughable record in these smaller tournament finals for me lately. Definitely need to rethink my approach. Watch Davidovich-Fokina destroy Fonseca now for his first tour title ever. He has never managed to win a single trophy before. Had some disgusting chokes in finals. He'll play flawlessly today because I picked Fonseca.

any swedish anons here? have elfsborg literally just quit on their season?

NJY-CIN under? CHI +2.5? thoughts?

Big upset day for nfl. If you play it right you can get yuuuuge money

>>151619194
Justin fields is playing so the offense isn't doing shit and Flacco doesn't have the storyline boost for the game. Also stay away from Chicago their entire team is injured and the Ravens are fully health sans Lamar kwabson so they have something to prove

>>151617113
Fonseca won 2-0. Wasn't even particularly close. Worried for nothing. Davidovich-Fokina is so insanely bad in finals I think I will always bet against him regardless of odds. His performances against Kecmanovic in the Delray Beach final and De Minaur in the Washington final earlier this year were some of the worst chokes of the 2025. This time he just got outplayed by Fonseca. Wasn't much choking involved but his awful finals record continues anyway.

Also interesting to see that Zverev put up a good fight against Sinner. He seems to be finding some confidence again. Maybe I can allow myself to bet on him in certain matches in Paris if the odds are high enough.

I betted on three 0-0 today. All three 3rd world 4 minutes extra time

>>151619756
>Big upset day for nfl. If you play it right you can get yuuuuge money
SF moneyline?

>>151622025
No bad san fran spot today

Chicago already kwabbing in the red zone

>Didn't have Saquon, Skattebo, or Achane today (retard.jpg)
>Flacco runs one in himself
>Bears, Bills, and Patriots settle for FG's

Yeah, I'm cooked.

>>151622414
What about New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seems like New Orleans are dead in the water

THANK YOU REAL MADRID

>>151623099
Good Saints spot today they play well at home and bucs are starting to feel the injuries

Mayes getting exposed by a good defense browns win

Ravens are looking good with the 3rd stringer he plays like Lamar.

Texans are gonna stomp the niners

Eagles game goes to the wire

Browns expose maye

Phins win

Panthers are at least covering

Skatt just blew his ankle apart eagles are gonna heem

4 0-0's i wanna die

Feel bad for everyone who fell for the riggi bears kayfabe

5 0-0's

bengals defense is ass. took cincy to cover when it dropped back to -5.5 but i don't think they are going to hold it.

>>151626276
I've never been more convinced this shit is rigged till now. Gayleb just threw a ridiculous interception that is going to destroy all the spreads.

>>151627828
It's all soft rigged and they hard rig when necessary.

>go ahead eagles
>can't get ahead

>>151627503
and they immediately give up ANOTHER touchdown to the worst offense in the league

>>151602886
I fucking lost this parlay with 2 shots in the post on craiova.

>>151628493
and now it's busted. should have cashed it out.

>>151627828
They then string together a bunch of defensive offsides so that the Ravens score instead of run the clock out. These fucks need to be shot.

>>151627828
I wanna see the FBI arrest some refs so bad just to see the leagues take the damage

>>151629153
Im sure the trump administration is building a case on them as we type. Trump never got into the nfl so he has a petty hard on for them and now that the NBA is fucked it should domino accordingly. These betting sites are poison for the normal retards

>>151629153
God i hate refs

>>151627828
I didn't see the play but Gayleb throwing a retarded pick sounds like the opposite of rigging

>>151596765
1 win and 2 losses in total. Already complained about everything so not much more left to say. I do still think that Bencic is tired and even though I've been burned pretty badly trying to fade her lately, I might go for it again in Chennai. Especially after having just won a title and with such little turnover time in a different country. Still got a day or so to consider everything.


Picks for Monday:

Korda to beat Sonego @1.55

Charaeva to beat Iatcenko @1.9

Hartono to win a set against Garland @1.9

how bout them chicago bears

>>151634144
I meant Hong Kong, not Chennai. There's also a WTA tournament in Chennai but she's playing Hong Kong unless there's a late withdrawal.

Wasn't expecting rattler to shit himself today hes been having a decent season

Is there a play for SNF? the over maybe?

>>151636432
Steelers ml

>>151637150
good guess so far

>Winless weekend again
>But a lot of teams I wanted to lose for non-gambling reasons lost

I'll take it

got fucked for $200 on a regrade but i got my money out first so im still on track for my biggest month ever. 69% to goal and still got over 3 months to go.

they gave me a bonus bet for the kudermetova retirement

is marozsan really going to choke this set away?

>>151647947
he sure is. from up 3-0, then 5-2, to losing the tiebreak. what a chump. now he'll give up.

>>151648107
Marozsan has been on my shitlist recently. Anytime I pick him he finds a way to disappoint. Same with Arnaldi.

Crazy how blatantly riggid the nfl has become they need the nba treatment stat

https://youtu.be/IWwV07Tz66s?si=s6dOWQk6H5Q9jJOW

They're also gaslighting the population with this tush push shit which needs to be banned. People are too retarded to deal with the 24/7 gaslighting

I may be retarded, but I don't think it's too too retarded, not my own money anyways so whatever.

CSKA-Ludogorets BTTS @ -125

You can legit just house it on the Dodgers the next 4 games

>>151648417
i should have put way, way more on this

Im thinking the tits get a cheeky upset over the chargers this week

>>151648950
Yeah right

>>151648317
yeah i dont know what they were thinking with that one. new york makes exceptions to the not reviewable rules every week.
only path I can see to restore legitimacy in NFL is fining and supsending refs. that whole crew should be suspended for 9 games without pay

>>151569779
You're a retarded fucking mark lol. His son is literally with Kalshi LMAO

>>151612924
Bro i'm gonna be honest. Soon after Flamengo lost i thought there's no way Palmeiras won't win, so i already had a bet on them at the moment you posted this. But congrats on the good call

odense is fucking pathetic. down 3-0 and brondby gets a red card, so of course odense immediately concedes another. i should have just taken brondby on the ML instead of getting cute with O3.5+BTTS

>>151651529
they got 14 minutes of injury time and have already wasted half of it doing fuck all. i don't know how they've scored 20 goals on the year.

I like Texans again over the broncos. Sketchy line and Texans are good at home.

>>151634144
The Charaeva and Hartono matches got moved to tomorrow due to rain delays. Korda however completely shat the bed today. I think I'm done ever picking Korda again. He's going on my perma blacklist. He should have landed there a long time ago, but it's truly time now. I know I'm just being emotional but I don't care. The amount of times Korda has delivered the most anemic and careless performances is ridiculous. Doesn't matter if he's the favourite or the underdog. Every single time I tell myself that maybe I should give him a chance again to see what happens and every time he disappoints. At the end of the day it's my fault for making bad picks but he's still going on my list. Still remember USO 2024 when he was obviously struggling with an arm injury and refused to retire against Machac for no good reason at all. Ended up losing 3-0 to ruin my over 3.5 sets. He never seems fully fit and even when he does seem fit, he will still randomly choke or not even show up at all. Posting my picks for tomorrow shortly. Fade them all if you want to make money.

>>151651529
I think you should take only total overs and stop with the btts

>>151652551
Game ended 1-4 though so he won
>>151652474
Keep up the good work Germany bro, downs are part of the game

>>151634144
Picks for Tuesday:

Lehecka to beat Vacherot @1.45

Erjavec to beat Zhang @3.4

Sasnovich to win a set against Bencic @2.2

Rakhimova to win a set against Kalinskaya @1.9

>>151652691
Wasn't even trying to fish for sympathy. Just genuinely tilted about Korda. But thanks, I appreciate it.

>>151652551
i do, when the odds make sense. but i typically don't like betting when it's -200 or worse.

Probably not gonna keep my word, but i'm trying to quit betting football because i can't deal with VAR anymore. I put over 2.5 in Porto game and the pig checked not once, not twice, but three times at VAR for a penalty (2 moreirense, 1 porto) and gave decision: no penalty, on all 3. Then when Porto finally scores in 90' , there's again a VAR check. Fuck . This. Shit.
I'm done, legit done. Ok, i won several times with the help of var, and i'm probably not being objective, but i think i'll focus on esports from now on.

>3 drives
>3 turnovers

Might have spent all that time overthinking touchdowns today for nothing.

>>151656456

>4 turnovers

Yep. Fuck this.

>>151653567
you're not wrong.

>>151521586 (OP)
Got destroyed this weekend by the Bears. I then tried to get it back by loading up on my Cowboys +3.5 bet. In an effort to get even, I put my entire account into Chiefs -10.5. This will be two weeks in a row I've done this. I got it all back in the Panthers/Jets game last time. It's depressing to have no self control. And I know deep down that I don't want to change. But at least I'm even, for now.

adkar 23.00

>>151661116
Nicely done

>>151648317
The Lions have been absolutely hosed by the refs the last two years. Defenses are allowed to late hit Goff because he has a punchable face. Plus that Goff receiving td overturned bs. That would be like retroactively calling a false start on a lineman after letting the play go off. It just shouldn't happen.
Also, dudes need to start holding the ball tip forward. Virtual placement heemed Ertz tonight.

Kill me

Betting on NBA spreads is probably the worst general bet you could do. Just go for ML for the obvious winner if you must bet.

>>151666027
Keanu Reeves in Hardball made it look terrible.

>>151666027
Basketball is probably the most corrupt sport on earth after boxing and horse racing. I'd steer clear completely.

Anyone got any spicy daytime bets? I'm bored as fuck. Any sport (besides the aforementioned of course).

>>151671334
You could go for a livebet on Rakhimova right now if she gets a break here. Think Kalinskaya is starting to lose control of the match.

>>151671396
Rakhimova actually broke while I was posting. Maybe she'll actually pull off a comeback now.

>>151671405
You think Medvedev beats the batty boy?

>>151671424
I was eyeing Munar to win a set but didn't like the odds. Think Medvedev should win this since he's had some time to recover from Almaty and Vienna.

>>151671405
Was on the verge of going up 5-4 and then fell apart. Great showing.

Dortmund + btts looks decent.

>>151663885
It's because Campbell isn't a good boy who plays by the script. If I had to name two coaches on the ends of the script spectrum it would be Campbell for never following and Sean Payton for always following

Broncos lost surtain so Texans should win this week. They're keeping the 1st seed in the afc west so chargers and chiefs records are all linked with them

This nfl thing is easy

somehow home run under season has returned

going to lose $50 on dortmund-frankfurt BTTS+O2.5

Atalanta or AC Milan bros?

>>151653252
4 out of 4 losses. Mindblowing stuff. Couldn't do worse if I tried to intentionally lose. Not a single set was won by a player I picked for today. Lehecka in particular was atrocious. Also great stuff by Sasnovich for throwing that second set.

The Chennai matches I'm still waiting on got moved again due to rain. Weather looks rough there. They might have to think about indoor matches if this continues. I'll wait on Charaeva and Hartono to inevitable lose their matches 2-0 and otherwise I think I'm done for the week.

HUNCH® - analysis and rants - your online tipster magazine

You fellas trust me? That i will get back to posting overs that land?
>Nashville v Inter Miami | 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+
These two played their last game of regular season in Nashville, and it ended 2-5, a game i watched in fully. So in first half Nashville had a lot of chances to score ,(xG rats can verify that), and only they attacked, except Messi opened the score in 30th min with a clean strike from outside the box. Nashville then quickly found the back of the net, and with 5 mins of extra time, made it 2-1 before ht. Then second half it was only Miami in control and they equalized, then Messi made it 2-3 from a gifted pen, then again Messi 2-4 , and also he created the 2-5 goal in 90+2. Then these two were also set to face each other in the first round of play-offs, and it ended 3-1 for Miami, a game that was different from this one. More time wasting from Mascherano, Nashville also missed a huge chance to open the score. It was 2-0 going in ET with 11 minutes. Nashville's gk dropped the ball from his hands to Messi to make it 3-0, and in 90+11 , Nashville's #10 made it 3-1 from a beautiful free kick. Which is also the reason why i believe the return leg will be a goalfest. This last minute free kick opens the chance for a comeback, so Nashville will have the belief they can overturn a 2 goal deficit. With Miami's poor defence, and playing at home, Nashville can score. But they will also be vulnerable on counters, where it looks like they cannot defend against the GOAT. The first leg was kind of like the first half, playing cautious, and it ended 3-1, now both will go all out. I'm expecting a 4-4 kind of game. Posting it 4 days in advance so whatever happens keep some bankroll for this, cause we could really hurt the bookies here (don't forget to bring some lube :) )
Staking strategy:
Over 3.5 @1.90 - 1000
Over 4.5 @3 - 700
Over 5.5 @5.25 - 500
Over 6.5 @9.80 - 500
And something on Messi anytime, x2, hattrick

>>151675906
i do not trust you, no.

>Palmeiras v LDU Quito
Will need to get confirmatiom from our Colombian tipster, but to overcome a 0-3 result, Palmeiras need to score 3 goals, and without watching the first leg, i still believe they're capable. That's odds 2.00, just for Palmeiras goals. If we take totals, over 2.5 in game: @1.62. That's safer and looks way better, to be able to include both team's attacks, although i believe Palmeiras will dominate the game like 20 chances to ... 3 ; Libertadores semifinal, have to give everything. And if they don't find the goal early, we can double down on over 1.5, or if they do get it, even 2-0, we can double down on another goal late in the game, cause they do need the 3 goals. The risk? The goal doesn't arrive and it ends 0-0, but i used the reverse jynx right now so we should be fine.

>>151675982
Fair

>>151675520
I'm betting on a group on longshots. I only need one to win or an injury to occur to make a profit.
Naklo > Perry $9 ->$100
Adkar > Vekic $6 ->$100
Morvayanova > Joint $9 -> $100
Bergs > Sinner $10 .> $200

>Puebla v Cruz Azul
I do not rate Puebla just one bit, so away win here @1.65

>Volos v Panathinaikos
The game between these two will always be special for me as i did put (1000 @1.20) + (1000 @1.25) + (1000 @1.30) + (1000 @1.33) + (1000 @1.40) + (1000 @1.50) + (1000 @1.60) on Panathinaikos to score , until Jeremejeff did in 65' . 7k on them to score (wouldn't do that again). Lost 5k on olympiakos the next day iirc.
@1.65 for away win, sounds good

>Verona v Inter
And yeah this looks like 0-4. We had this marked as the lock of the week? @1.42 not bad

>>151676243
Wouldn't rule out Zheng beating Putintseva as a longshot but I've been wrong about everything lately so it's probably a lopsided 2-0 for Putintseva. Really mad I didn't go for Norrie to win a set against Alcaraz. Psyched myself out of it. Was thinking all day the odds are too high. Same with Ugo Carabelli. No clue why he he was a @5 underdog against Etcheverry. Thought he must have some injury or something I'm not aware of. Wins 2-0 of course.

Philadelphia 76ers

Im really feeling titans this weekend. Last time I had a weird titansense they beat the Cardinals

>>151677852
Titans are tanking. They just traded their best CB. Their secondary is all randos. Put it on ladd receiving yards.

>>151677693
I was only able to watch my PHI -4.5 bet play out thru scoreboards. Absolute degeneracy. A comeback, OT, and pointless points at the end. Kino.

>>151680017
Right its screaming trap though and im seeing movement on the titans spread. I wont be surprised if they Chorge here

anyone like the LAK-SJS over?

>>151676465
I've been betting on Bu Yunchaokete in Seol and he's been smashing it
He also always does worse in the second game so the odds go way up so you can get in around 1.6.
I'm betting on him right now

>>151685062
Also, Fuck Koreans
They clap for anyone who isn't Chinese, so when Bu Yunchaokete plays it's dead silent when he scores and clapping when he loses.
They're really hating on a 23yr old kid who came to a foreign country by himself to play a game of tennis.
Fucking shameful

Betting India under 182 runs in this 20/20. They have to break the international ground record to do that and Australia have been great lately

>>151685062
Nice call. Bu has been kind of struggling on the main tour lately so makes sense he's focusing on some Challengers now. I think he's been injured for a longer while. But Seoul just started? He beat Park in the first round who he's obviously supposed to beat and now Hüsler. Not sure I'd call that smashing it so far but I'll keep an eye on him.

Serious question: do you guys also bet on movies? LIke do you go to a film and bet on what the character is gonna say next, even tough you've seen the film before and know exactly what he's gonna say ... but it might be different this time?

Colts
niners
Texans
chiefs
jags
Seahawks
Cardinals
Ravens-
Vikings+
Titans +
Packers -
Bengals
Rams

Albanian league, 1st place Vllnazia is @ -106 against 10th place Flamurtari.

Slovan Bratislava
PSG
Juventus
Inter
Celtic
Marseille
Como
Roma

>>151676136
>Palmeiras v LDU Quito
I don't feel like doing prematch bets on it

Today I have the checky unit of the week on Racing to win. I don't feel as confident as the last week bet on LDU tho. Racing is playing its most important match in 30 years while for Flamengo is just another semifinal.

>>151687849
>have these monkeys on every acca

>>151688138
I'll be rooting for Racing then but won't touch this game

why are people throwing money at Crystal Palace all of a sudden?

anyone like BTTS in celtic-falkirk?

>>151689861
Well well well

>>151689861
crystal palace can be a weird team that plays good against the good teams and bad against the bad teams hard team to bet on or against

Chiefs are gonna shit on the bills.

>>151691957
It was cause liverpool played reserves

>had 100 € on koln to score 2 goals @3, and the ball hit the post
Losing my mind

>>151691819
>VAR'd
You okay bro?

>>151692576
just one of several losses today.

>>151689861
Crystal Palace are the gods of unexpected cheeky wins, they've made me a load of money

>>151692624
i am actually seething more about the BTTS+O2.5 i took on newcastle-tottenham as i was deciding between that match and the chelsea one

Easy, just picked the big teams to win.

When the ball hits the post who do you blame? I can't blame the ref. Back in bet school, there was a psychiatry unit in the basement. Don't wanna pull numbers out of my ass, but i think 95% there were for losses that were close, or ref robberies. In class they thought us this trick to ease the nerves: a video of a ref burned alive in a mattress in a favela. Didn't help much desu.

>>151550629
And on this topic, especially if you are able to watch live (unless you can predict this prematch - which you can) , be aware there are 2 types of games: open, or close. Close for example was the latest Red Star Belgrade match. They played away at a team at the bottom of the table. Red Star are first and winning each game at home 6-1 or so. This time, this team Radnicki defended with 6 at the back, and 4 in front of them. It also rained, and they didn't have an intention to go forward, AT ALL. I lost 1k on over 0.5 at the 60th min because i thought there's no way zvezda doesn't score. When i opened the stream, i could tell at first glance what a mistake i made. Cause if you're watching 2000 games a year you can tell. In contrast, Koln v Bayern. Cup game, so not much pressure. Drunkard fans pushing home team forward, big spaces in the back, world class players in bayern for the counters: recipe for goals. It all comes down to how compact the teams stay. Look for example at Betis Atletico. I knew betis as an over team, and at 0-1 in min 2' for atletico you'd think it's a good sign. It wasn't, cause simeone dragged his team back, and defended there with 11 players, barely going with 3 , 4 guys on the counter, and in 2nd half even worse, risking nothing. And betis had their chances but not enough. In other words, if one team is parking the bus, the goal isn't coming. See Lorient - PSG. If they defend with 10 men you don't have space to do anything.

I will say the league that plays the most beautiful football, with great rhythm, precise passes, chances to score, good pitches everywhere, where they prioritize the attack over defence? Indian Super League.

>>151692988
Jk, it's eredivisie.

It's an ambitious project, The Parlay of the Gods, 12 events over 3 days, odds 60. But hear me out. Tomorrow i say we go on Red Star in Serbia. They're the best team, they can get it done. Then, as i said: 3+ at Palmeiras. Next, i saw Al Hilal, they're good, and with Inzaghi, they are result based, so they'll be looking for the 3 points. Puebla Cruz Azul talked about it. Decided to skip Panathinaikos though. Arsenal, in pole to get the title this year. Burnley, again with disgusting bus parking, but hopefully it's 0-1 FT. If we get past this, we can see the light at the end of the tunnel cause Atletico should secure the win at home. PSG, again, at home. Copenhaga need to bounce back with a win, and their opponent is weak, saw them several times and they're having difficulties in the first division. Club Brugge against the bottom of the table, Real Madrid the same, always delivering at home v valencia. And then we put the trust in Mourinho's Benfica to have their best game yet and get the W here, on a sometimes tough visit. Sometimes not. Finally, i say we close it out with a bang, but for safety going on the first line, the over 3.5, besides we'd also have the higher overs separately. So this is it. GL

>Auxerre v Marseille @1.71
Bit of value here, from what i heard auxerre are very poor (but will park bus) and marseille are quite an OP team in french league atm, would be nice thou if they recover some key players who are currently injured: balerdi (c), medina, weah ..

I messed up bros. Cashed out when Paris scored and got a red card

>>151696256
forgot pic

From european cups in a week
>Utrecht v Porto @1.83
Mighty Utrecht might be in trouble here. Don't think their 18 y.o antilopes will manage to get something against a real team like Porto is this year.

>Ajax v Galatasaray | over 3.5 @2.15
Seems like the obvious over in CL. Cause Ajax is such an over team. They know what to do in attack, while also conceiding. And turks? Got 4-1 by alkmaar, and 5-1 by frankfurt, when travelling. This time i expect Galata to win desu, a 3-4. So 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+.

>>151692911
And another thing. The red card doesn't help a team scoring, it makes it even harder. It's counter intuitive, but the team on the red will overload their last third, and never leave. And suddenly their not defending with 6 players, but with 9. Like Flamengo is doing right now. Especially that the result is favourable. And they'll hope to last 30 minutes. Plus they'll employ the dirty tactics of time wasting.

Okay, this player is valued at 46k, and Vini Jr at 177 mil, but if the bum is laying on the ground "injured" and the ball is never in play how are we going to score?

Surely the ref will give at least 8 minutes ET

6 minutes in racing flamengo is a joke. The play was stopped at the var for red card for at least 4-5 mins

>>151676465
kalinskaya-zhang, who do you like?

>>151700737
Kalinskaya, so take Zhang.

>>151701850
i was leaning zhang anyway, but she's getting destroyed

Australia to beat India in the ICC Womens Cup tonight
Waiting on an announcement about the captain Healy on whether she's playing after an injury but if they announce that she's playing which is likely, the odds will drop a lot.


>>151701850
What are your thoughts on picrelated coming up?
I've already won twice on my boy Bu

>>151702226
That's what I thought would happen so I thought the opposite will occur.

>>151702347
Assume Bu wins. Think Wong has been shaky recently.

>>151702487
>Assume Bu wins.
Done

check out Frankie Dettori’s Breeder’s Cup rides - he’s retiring after and I suspect he will want to go out on top.

Cagliary whoops sussolo

Love the ravens tonight, fuck miami

Raiders beat jags.

>>151693574
Step 1 of our plan begins t

>>151704353
its a big spread, is jackson starting?

>Trusted the Dolphins to score a TD
>Let alone possibly two
>Charlie fucking Kolar instead of Lamar/Henry/Bateman/Hopkins

I normally do okay on Thursdays but it was just a total waste tonight

>>151705699
probable

where can I find accurate lineup and injury data for the nba? I swear there are so many last minute scratches this shit feels rigged even more than what's standard

>>151711574
nba injuries on telegram

Thank you Victor Wembanyama for more than making up for all I've lost to College Football (definitely done with that) and the NFL in the past month.
I'm going to enjoy the ride until your knees explode in about 3 weeks or so.
https://youtu.be/eALDhCjpa-U?si=oKFmN2t4-ajVOpC9

bucsa 3.75

>>151712170
another void.... bencic withdrew

dodgers blue jays under 7.5 runs @ 1.90
dodgers absolutely ice cold, leading the majors in strikeouts in the playoffs, cant even buy a hit to save their lives. only 3 players in mlb history have ever thrown 3 consecutive complete games in mlb playoff history, even if yamamoto manages to join them tomorrow, i dont even think the dodgers manage to score more than a few runs. dodgers have a mountain to climb here.

Hello bet
In nascar , Either Hamlin (3.35) or Byron (3.5) will the the nascar championship. Not the race, but the championship. The writings on the wall.

bet365 finally did something about their broken odds in ncaaf bttsX markets. the losers stopped offering it. lmao, even

>>151714718
how much did you reap?

I feel really jealous of you Europeans and South American bros that don't have to pay taxes from gambling sites.
I've been making a good net profit but if I keep going for this season there's a very real risk that I will lose my health insurance.
There are even some states that charge an extra tax for gambling winnings, which is effectively a (((tax for paying (((tax))) even))).
We are the most Jewed country of all-time.

>>151521586 (OP)
Does \bet\ have their favorite sports cappers to tag or support if they have 70% percent win ratio?

>>151714718
Looks like Draftkings still offers it, for now.

>book gave me a 10 dollar freebet for a single
help me pick
>doyer ml -145
>doyer -1 -110
>doyer -1.5 +114
>NFRI -132
>doyer F5 ml -104

>>151717468
There's an automatic tax here charged for every single bet you place. You don't have to declare it but it's like going to a store and having to pay taxes on top of the actual price. There are countries like Poland with ridiculous tax rates.

>>151717028
only a couple hundred because they restricted me after week 2.
>>151717949
its a shit bet on its own. value was in arbitage because bet365 uses different math. mgm and fanduel still have the prop and sometimes can find an edge but its much smaller and takes too long

>>151717468
this is a complicated subject but Im pretty sure you lost everything at the blackjack table yesterday. did you forget to write it in your gambling diary that satisfies IRS requirments for proof of gambling wins and losses?

Suns-jazz over? Markkanen O24.5 pts?

anyone have any insight into why the odds are so good for frankfurt tomorrow against heidenheim aside from being an away match?

portugal 2nd division
sporting lisbon b @ 1.95

3/6 so far. need 4 for a payout.

A few weeks ago I was looking for a casino games gen on 4chan and I was directed here. After asking, an anon said it sort of fit the theme so I'll post my update here.
Starting from zero blackjack knowledge, I've practiced about 90 hours counting cards at home in the past month. Tonight on Halloween I don't have any kids and no friends so I decided to try out at the casino for the very first time mostly to see what it's like in a real casino. I've never gambled anything in my life or been in a casino before.
I started out just flat betting minimum and trying to keep the count. I lost the count on the second hand of my first shoe. After a few shoes keeping count I felt confident enough to start increasing my bets on high counts.
I lost $200 and then cashed out. I definitely need more practice. I lost the count a few times and made a couple basic strategy mistakes (I stood my 12v3 once). Also I think the dealer didn't pay me on a $30 bet when she busted but I was distracted talking to the girl next to me and didn't notice in time.
It was kind of easier than at home because it's actually slower than how I practice. But also more difficult at the same time because of all the distractions.
I'm going to spend another month training at home before I go back again. It was a $200 learning experience.

>>151727758
4/6 with 2 to run. guessing everyone chose those tho so probably a small payout.

Etienne vs raiders or Kai Mongai vs Cincinnati (worst against the run in the league)

I like Colorado Avalanche incl ot @1.43

whew 5/6 might actually get a few dollars for this

$10, that's a lot of 20 cent bets!
also, easy week then, 504 winners in the $100k pool when it's usually 0 to 2.

>decide to yolo the $10 on a 1.30 place
>horsey decides it doesn't want to run
every
single
time
not a void all bets stand once it starts

>>151727860
get a job

Premier League Elo ratings

Championship Elo ratings

>>151729414
Which formula do you use for this?

>>151727860
focus your efforts on learning the strats for high counts. youll want to stand more often when theres a lot of 10s in the shoe. and dont stress over losing the count. close is good enough. even if you do everything perfect its still gambling. make sure youre doing the loyalty program, then you can profit by breaking even at the tables.

>>151728183
i like your style

China superleague live
Meiju to win @15 odd
Currently 0-2, guest plays for nothing but home needs to win for chance to avoid relegation

>>151729575
Each team begins with a rating of 1500.
home team gets +50 points added to the rating for that match
I compare the two ratings (with the home boost) to see who should be more likely to win.

I then consider the wins and how big the wins were: I also look at goal difference, not total goals scored. winning 3–0 is +3, losing 1–2 is –1.

Teams that consistently win by bigger margins get a small extra nudge in the prediction.
The final prediction is mostly based on ratings, with some recent goal differences: about 80% ratings + 20% goal-difference info.

I also look at goal difference in recent matches (not just total goals scored).
Winning 3–0 gives a goal difference of +3.
Losing 1–2 gives –1.

Teams that consistently win by bigger margins get a small extra boost in the prediction.

The final ratings are basically (80%) — overall form and strength and goal difference (20%) — recent winning margins.
This means a team with both good form and strong results gets slightly more credit.

If an underdog wins, their rating goes up more.
If a favorite loses, their rating drops more.
Expected results change ratings only a little.

this is why we have given hull higher in chance of winning - hopefully they will perform well.

and it looks like the ratings are completely wrong as Leicester are getting beat and it looks like norwich are piling the pressure on hull - not good!!!

>>151729719
Do you include injuries and suspensions as well?

>>151729590
1-2 81min we need a miracle boys

>>151729828
2-2 86min will this be the day grandma

It was not our day again grandma

>>151729814
no. I just work on goals and goal difference.

I see hull are winning 1 - 0!

PL > 2.5 probabilities

>>151729719
So you use completely arbitrary criteria which gives you lines that are completely different from the mainstream, proven to be correct over decades exchanges? How's that going?

champ > 2.5 probabilities

had a dream united lost today 3-0 but won next week against sunderland again. take that as you will

>>151730079
>arbitrary
explain this please. the explain Elo.

>>151730097
What's not arbitrary about starting each team on the same amount of points and arbitrarily choosing 50 points for your home advantage? It seems your entire 'method' is looking at recent form. One glance at the actual market will tell you these probabilites are wrong. You aren't finding an edge on PL football by looking at flashscore's recent results

>>151730235
it's obvious the Hull probability was right. Plus, Elo ratings have been around for a long, long time. They have been proven as a "method" lol. If you read my explanation, it's not just about recent results.

Anyway, enjoy your 1.30 odds bets.

>>151730381
>it's obvious the Hull probability was right
Bad bets win, good bets lose. One result doesn't define anything. Would you have said the probabilities were wrong had Hull lost? That's how fickle you're being. I'm telling you this in good faith, not only are you making shit bets but you're spending a lot of time looking up numbers and arriving at incorrect conclusions. A lot more information goes into pricing these markets than what you're doing. If you think PL markets are 20-30% off you have to ask yourself if you're in the wrong or they are and there's only one answer there.

>>151727399
uzun subbed off with injury and immediately down 1-0. yeah i'm thinking this one's busted already.

>>151730664
>Would you have said the probabilities were wrong had Hull lost?
no. they are what they are based on the available info.

>If you think PL markets are 20-30% off you have to ask yourself if you're in the wrong or they are and there's only one answer there.
Not sure where I said I think the markets are 20 - 30% off.

carson beck O1.5 passing TD @ -130. apparently this was plus money earlier in the week.

>>151730664
Bro you think the books have some magic formula? Its all an algorhitm and of course there are ways to expose it, as some have already done in the past big time.

>Vanderbilt +7.5
>Houston -12.5

That was quick

>>151730785
this is two weeks in a row heidenheim is raping me

ATTENTION!
Value odds on Ante Delija at -130 for today's UFC fight. Smoked the division gatekeeper in his last fight and is now against a ploddy bum who is coming off a loss and a split decision robbery.

>>151734377
Give me your picks bro
I got a 3 leg on dulgarian, donte and nascimento.
A lot of the odds don't make any sense in my opinion but i think that i'll add elekana to the mix.
Think there's big money on dogs again this week

>>151734662
I don't have any other picks than that one. I'm not even going to watch that dogshit apexslop card.

flames-preds over or under?

Cardinals beat cowboys

>Minnesota pulls a win out of their ass just for Arkansas to absolutely collapse

That lone CFB win I had back in week 2 feels like an eternity ago.

>>151734377
Fuck you

I created my own lil tool to try and help me with bets, try it free on my site. If you want you can contribute on GitHub too. Only nfl and nba so far, mlb too but it’s end of season I took it down