>>103960756
True, but what is measured here is "probability that after x tries she fails to catch a single shiny". Technically you could roll a dice 100 times with it never rolling '6', the chance to get '6' on the 101st roll is still 1/6 but it's extremely unlikely that 100 dice rolls in you didn't even get a single '6'. That's the idea expressed with that probability.
Probabilities are weird.