Thread 938015844

How smart is /b/?

>>938015844 (OP)
50%

>>938015844 (OP)
Low-effort logfag thread, if you reply to it you've been trolled and you're a newfag

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1/3

The answer is of course, nigger.

>>938015869
Wrong

>>938016067
Seethe more, retard, this isn't a logfag thread.

>>938015844 (OP)
Stock check on who gives a flying fuck.

>>938016591

It's not wrong you numb fuck

>>938016591
>Thinks a coin can be more than 50%

>>938015844 (OP)
> incomplete problem statement
Someone always takes this bait.

>>938017077
>It's not wrong
Yes it is, you fucking brainlet.

For a 2 coin flip, there are 4 equally probable outcomes
HH
HT
TH
TT

At least one coin lands heads, so that only rule sout TT, leaving 3
HH
HT
TH

1/3

>>938017590
>TH
Lol

>>938017643
Does it have at least one heads?

You see how you are retarded?

>>938018126
>Flips coin.
>Tails
>WELL NEXT COULD BE HEADS!!!!
The antecedent in the story problem can only be valid if there's a heads in the coin dipshit.

>>938017230
>thinks two coins can't be

>>938018233
>assuming the first coin has to be heads

You're are a fucking retard

>>938018577
The first coin is already heads.
The second is 50%

>>938018611
Nice memoir.

>>938018658
>The first coin is already heads.
Where does the question say that retard?

>>938018901
How can you ask if they're both heads if the former is not?

>>938018967
There is no former, retard. Either ocin could be heads.

>>938019214
Where does it say that?

>>938019368
Is English your first language, fag?
"at least one coin" implies either coin.

1/3

>>938019707
But TH implies a tails on the first flip that doesn't make sense.

>>938019752
>But TH implies a tails on the first flip that doesn't make sense.

How does it not make sense, anon? The question asks what is the probability that both coins land heads if at least one coin lands heads. It doesn't ask what is the probability that both coins land heads if the FIRST coin lands heads. Your problem is that you are misunderstanding the question being asked.

The thing that confuses people the most about this problem is what is asking is different than how its worded from a common language and realistic scenario standpoint.

When you tell someone at least one coin is heads, we know then that okay, obviously we can discount one coin so it *should* be 50%. Pragmatically and functionally speaking it is 50%. HT and TH are for all intents and purposes the same result.

When you look at it from the theoretical/academic angle though thats how you get the 1/3rd answer. Its technically correct, but its also a statistic that only exists inside of a theoretical word problem. On paper its 33% but in reality its 50%.

>>938019956
It just doesn't make sense to me because if a coin is tails then why would it graduate a heads?
It says one has to be heads.

>>938018967
Pretend the coins have numbers 1 and 2 written on them. The question is asking "If atleast one is heads". can you have a situation where coin 1 is heads and coin 2 isn't heads and the condition "atleast one is heads" be true? Yes of course. Can you have a situation where coin 1 is not heads but coin 2 is heads and still have the condition be true? Yes
>>938020050
Do you seriously think that the 1/3 answer cant be tested?

>>938020115
guarantee*

>>938020118
That's fucking weird though.
If you flip a tails it just seems like it's over at that point.
Do the whole thing over again because one is already T.

>>938015844 (OP)
let's see...
there are four possibilities
HH
HT
TH
TT
we can remove TT, because we know at least one is H
that's leaves
HH
HT
TH
so if at least one is heads, the probability that both are heads is 1/3rd

>>938016591
It's not wrong you poopyskin, if it states one coin has already landed and it's heads, then it's 1/2
>>938020050
It's the balls and boxes problem all over again

>>938020236
>if it states one coin has already landed and it's heads
it doesn't state anything of the sort

>>938020172
>If you flip a tails it just seems like it's over at that point.
Ok, lets pretend someone else is flipping them for you. Theyre trying to replicate the problem. They flip one coin and its tails, are they going to give up? No, they're going to flip the second one because the question says two coins are flipped, and if it lands heads they're going to say to you that "at least one landed heads".

>>938020050
>When you tell someone at least one coin is heads
this is wrong though. It's not "one coin is heads", it's "IF one coin is heads".
>On paper its 33% but in reality its 50%.
I hope you don't vote

>>938020118
it depends on the methodology of your test. you clearly dont understand what im saying. If you flip 2 coins 10000 times discount all TT results you will see that you get HH 33% of the time. You can put that on paper and say well look there are 3 different options so the answer is 33%. The question is not asking what is the possible number of outcomes on a per coin basis that you will get heads on both coins. The way the question is worded would leave any reasonable person to believe you flip 2 coins in succession. We know the first one is heads, therefore what is the chance both are heads?

A better wording would be if you flip 2 coins at the same time, and know that at least one of them will be heads, what is the chance that both coins will show heads?

In real life though we dont care nearly as much about probability as we do about outcome. To a normal person and in a real world scenario, if we flip 2 coins and we know one is heads, it may as well be a 50/50 shot the second coin we flip is heads.

>>938020376
i hope you dont vote because you're clearly too retarded to understand what im saying

>>938020381
>if we flip 2 coins and we know one is heads
You keep saying this as if that's the information the question is giving you. Its not, the question says "if at least one is heads" that's not the same thing as being told that one specific coin is heads or being shown one specific coin and it being heads..
>discount all TT results
So you know how it works already. The thing is though is that whats left after you eliminate the TT results are the possibilities that fit the condition of the question. TH, HH and HT all fit the statement of at least one is heads. Thats why they're counted.

>>938020412
you're saying that these statistical problems are only "theoretical" and so don't matter, yet we live in a time where statistics are used to blatantly lie to the populace.
these weird counter intuitive things matter

>>938020050
>what is asking is different than how its worded from a common language and realistic scenario standpoint.
No it's not you fucking retard. Allow me to demonstrate; i just flipped 2 coins. i looked at them and I am telling you that at least one coin landed heads. now you tell me what is the probability that both landed heads.

protip: it's 1/3

>When you tell someone at least one coin is heads, we know then that okay, obviously we can discount one coin
NO, retard. you can't discount one coin because you don't know which coin landed heads or if both coins landed heads. All you know is that at least one coin did, meaning TT is the only outcome no longer possible.

>so it *should* be 50%. Pragmatically and functionally speaking it is 50%
Fucntionally and pragmatically you are a fucking idiot, anon.

>HT and TH are for all intents and purposes the same result.
Holy shit you are a fucking moron LMAO

>When you look at it from the theoretical/academic angle though thats how you get the 1/3rd answer. Its technically correct, but its also a statistic that only exists inside of a theoretical word problem. On paper its 33% but in reality its 50%.

Nigger, do you think that math doesn't match reality? Are you really this fucking stupid. Let me help you, you fucking simpleton.

Go grab 2 coins right now, make sure they both have a heads side and a tails side. Flip them 100 times and write down on a piece of paper how many time there was at least one heads, and how many times both coins were heads.

On average, the results would be

HH - 25 times
HT - 25 times
TH - 25 times
TT - 25 times

Now how many of those had at least 1 heads?
Answer = 75

How many were both heads?
Answer = 25

25/75 = 1/3

Go and do it to see how fucking retarded you are. Literally everything in your post is incorrect so it's hard not to suspect you're a troll. Surely you can't be this dumb.

>>938020671
you must have autism. do you fail the where will sally look for the ball test? I know what the question is asking, but its worded in a very academic way. When you blankly say to a normal person in normal context I have 2 coins and at least one of them is heads, no one cares or think about oh hmm, well coin 1 could be H or coin 2 could be H meaning we have HT or TH. A normal person in a realistic scenario would think "i have 2 coins and i know one of them is heads". In the real world HT and TH are the same from the perspective of outcome, which is what people are wired to care about. By wording the question differently it would make the average person realize you are not asking about the raw outcome, but every possibility that would lead to a specific outcome.

>>938020820
if youve ever taken a collge statistic class or taken a graduate or higher medical class where you learn to draft and decipher studies, the first thing you learn is that statistics are essentially bullshit. with the right narrative or methodology you can pretty much get any set of data to tell whatever story you want it to. A hypothetical math problem like this is just theoretical and it is 100% just a text question with no real world application. If you were to actually think of gambling or assessing success/failure rates, then yes you would absolutely look at and generate every potential outcome - but the question would be framed significantly differently and with a different context.

>>938020942
you have autism and dont understand how normal people think.

>>938020115
>It just doesn't make sense to me
Think harder.

1/3

>>938020236
What's it like being stupid? Genuine question.

>>938021017
>A hypothetical math problem like this is just theoretical and it is 100% just a text question with no real world application.
if you can't understand a simple problem like this then you're ngmi, and sadly that's most people.

>>938020381
>The way the question is worded would leave any reasonable person to believe you flip 2 coins in succession. We know the first one is heads
Bit that's where you're wrong, dumbass. the question never states the first coin is heads. If it did, then the answer would be 1/2. But it doesn't, so either coin could be heads, and the answer is 1/3.

Pic Related: (You)

>>938021045
>thinks someone being able to answer a basic conditional probability question correctly means they have autism

KEK

1/3

>>938021258
It is worded badly.

>>938021017
>When you blankly say to a normal person in normal context I have 2 coins and at least one of them is heads, no one cares or think about oh hmm, well coin 1 could be H or coin 2 could be H meaning we have HT or TH
Cool guess what? if a person thought like that then they'd be WRONG. If they were told to bet on both being heads or just one being heads and picked HH because they thought that its equally likely then they're going to los most of the time. Just because one answer seems intuitive and might be widely believed among everyone doesn't make it right. People for a long time including mathematicians didnt believe the correct answer for the monty hall problem until it was explained in excruciating detail.

>>938021017
>In the real world HT and TH are the same
In the real world they are not the same, you absolute simpleton. Use a penny and a quarter

how is
penny=heads, quarter=tails
the same as
penny=tails, quarter=heads

Are you genuinely mentally deficient?

1/3

>>938021566
Why are you changing the coins?

>>938021375
It's worded succinctly and concisely with the exact amount of information given to answer it correctly. You're just dumb, anon. You are the one adding superfluous information that is not given, such as "well the first coin landed heads"

You are stupid. Too bad for you, I guess.

>>938021634
To make it easier for brainlets to understand that 2 coins are 2 coins. you must be a brainlet too if you have to ask that.

>>938021634
So you think changing the coins changes the answer? We could just as easily draw a 1 on one coin and draw a 2 on another. Shouldnt that clue you off that maybe the logic behind the 50% answer is wrong if doing something as simple as marking 1 coin all of a sudden changes the numbers for you?

>>938021720
>>938021801
>>938021836
Grow up.

>>938022037
LOL

>>938015844 (OP)
Well he's pretty good and understanding your feelings and thoughts so I would rate his intelligence about your feelings and thoughts as well as 7