>>938704962 (OP)
The only way Vance wins is if the upcoming recession hits soon and then within a year Trump dies so Vance takes over and the business cycle swings up fairly quickly so he can take credit for the improvement and can get rid of tariffs and denounce trumpism.
Even then, there is a pretty decent chance that Don Jr runs and if it looks like theil, etc have Vance in the bag for a repub nomination, Jr runs on a new trump party grift machine and splits the republican vote.