Thread 23285192

can an american help me solve this

0.50

>>23285192 (OP)
100% because i ordered 2 big macs and mcdonalds never disappoints

>>23285192 (OP)
All I know is I couldn't even afford all that food

2/3

The answer is Quarter Pounder. #USA

>>23285192 (OP)
2/3

>>23285192 (OP)
Americans will use anything other than the metric system.

>>23285193
no... this is just the monty hall problem in a different style

>>23285196
>>23285198
>>23285200
How? You picked big mac so it's either box A or box B and your set size is reduced to 2. We don't have to calculate the probability of picking a big mac first.

>>23285192 (OP)
The answer is AMERICA.

>>23285192 (OP)
50/50, you've ruled out the 2 cheeseburger box by picking a big mac already.

>>23285201
That is a logical conclusion, but you need to consider the percentage of the box you chose first.
>think “I saw a big mac, so now it’s either the Mac-Mac box or the Mac-Cheeseburger box. That’s two equally likely options, so the chance of the next one being a big mac is 1/2.”
But that’s not quite right, because the act of drawing a big mac doesn’t give equal evidence for both boxes:
>If you picked the MM box, you were guaranteed to see a big mac on the first draw.
>If you picked the MC box, you only had a 1/2 chance of seeing a big mac first.
So this increases it from 1/2, as you are more likely to of taken the mac from the MM box for your first pick, than grabbing the mac out of the mac-cheeseburger.


Think of the OP's question needing to also solve this question

>"You pulled out a big mac out of a box, which of the box did it likely come from. DId you pick the 1 mac box and get lucky, or the 2 mac box?"

>>23285204
>>"You pulled out a big mac out of a box, which of the box did it likely come from. DId you pick the 1 mac box and get lucky, or the 2 mac box?"
Ok worded like this it makes sense. Thanks chatgpt

>>23285205
As a large language canadian, Im here to help.

>>23285192 (OP)
2/3 since you picked up either big mac A, B or C with A and B being in the box with another big mac and C in a box with a cheeseburger

>>23285192 (OP)
public deficator

>>23285204
You dont need to consider the probability of the setup becuase you're tild what happens.

The question is "given situation X what is the probablity of Y happening.". You're answering 'what is the probability of X and then Y happening'

It’s 2/3, and I’ll help you low IQ idiots intuit why that is.

Imagine each box had 1000 burgers in it. Box a is all Big Macs. Box C is all cheeseburgers. Box B is 999 cheeseburgers and 1 Big Mac.

When you reach into a random box and pull out a big Mac, you have to account for the probability that you had grabbed the big Mac. For box a that is 100%. For box B, that’s 0.1%. So you can realistically conclude that you are in box A, because 1000/1001 Big Macs are in box a.

In this scenario, that means 2/3 options of selecting a Big Mac are in box A, so you have 2/3 chance of drawing another Big Mac.

>>23285220
To help with all the autists figure out why you are wrong.

This is a critical thinking question more than a mathematical one. There are superfluous details that can be disregarded. This question boils down to getting you to realise that Box C is a red herring and to ask yourself "do I have box A or box B infront of me". It doesn't need to be turned into a hyperthetical "Well what if the boxes had a million burgers in them" because that was not included in the setup. The box infront of you can only contain one of two outcomes, either there is a Cheeseburger inside or a Big mac, there is no third option, you are simply deciding is this box A or box B.

>>23285192 (OP)
1/2 or 50%
I don't see what's so difficult about this problem.

if I scooped out a big mac there is a 1/3 chance I picked the double big mac box
that means if I change my answer there is a 1/2 chance to choose the shitty tiny burger box
therefore, requiring two big macs to feel full, I will stay with my chosen box and analyze the worldline where I chose a different box

*muttleaps to the β timeline*
I chose the wrong box with a 2/3 chance
intuition leaving me disgruntled, I destroyed everything in front of me, revealing which box was right
hitting my head and brain converging with the α timeline, I epiphanize that there was a 1/2 chance that box was a shitty tiny burger box
using grade school math, I add up the odds: two thirds of one half of all outcomes lead to the β timeline, hence 2/3*1/2
using my phone as a calculator, I enter 0.6666*0.5 and get 0.3333
if there are 0.3333 math points that I'm on the wrong timeline, there must be 0.6666 math points that the α timeline has my burger

*muttleaps to the α timeline*