Anonymous
ID: Ivnz9RNX
6/14/2025, 12:06:44 AM No.60501933
Stagnant wages + inflation means two things:
>every person's real income peaks at some point, usually a while before they're supposed to retire
>every person has an upper bound on how much of any asset they can accumulate over their lifetime
If the upper bound of a person's potential asset holdings is below the minimum amount of that asset they'd need to live comfortably off its passive returns (say, 10 BTC or 5000 shares of SPY or something), there will be no use in further investment and they will become net sellers of that asset soon after their inflation-adjusted income peaks. Think about it: 1/10th of a house is not worth 1/10th of it's price, it's worth far less. The utility of a small fraction of a thing is way less than proportional to the fraction. If a 55 year old has 200k in the S&P, there's literally no point in continuing to build that "retirement" fund as it'll never be enough to retire in the first place. He will rationally sell it for luxuries and hedonism to dull the pain of working until death.
This is how the music stops on the "doombull" run and a massive crash occurs even with high inflation and no catalyst. And since our age demographics are steeply top-heavy, we are in for a long, long stretch of net asset selling. That's not even counting what estate/inheritance taxes will do to boomer coffers, nor any of the dozens of things that could suddenly upend the markets in the current horrendous macro.
They will never, ever, ever let you get rich so easily.
>every person's real income peaks at some point, usually a while before they're supposed to retire
>every person has an upper bound on how much of any asset they can accumulate over their lifetime
If the upper bound of a person's potential asset holdings is below the minimum amount of that asset they'd need to live comfortably off its passive returns (say, 10 BTC or 5000 shares of SPY or something), there will be no use in further investment and they will become net sellers of that asset soon after their inflation-adjusted income peaks. Think about it: 1/10th of a house is not worth 1/10th of it's price, it's worth far less. The utility of a small fraction of a thing is way less than proportional to the fraction. If a 55 year old has 200k in the S&P, there's literally no point in continuing to build that "retirement" fund as it'll never be enough to retire in the first place. He will rationally sell it for luxuries and hedonism to dull the pain of working until death.
This is how the music stops on the "doombull" run and a massive crash occurs even with high inflation and no catalyst. And since our age demographics are steeply top-heavy, we are in for a long, long stretch of net asset selling. That's not even counting what estate/inheritance taxes will do to boomer coffers, nor any of the dozens of things that could suddenly upend the markets in the current horrendous macro.
They will never, ever, ever let you get rich so easily.
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