Thread 60502019

What's your base case for the next FOMCs?

I'm eyeing September as the deal breaker, what do you think will happen

>>60502019 (OP)
Powell will fly his dick into a helicopter and sexually assault an obese woman in public and declare a 25 point rate cut.
He is not the hero we want, but the one we need.

>>60502025
I think that's too predictable my friend

>>60502019 (OP)
It may be hard to believe but you can go through life just fine without having a personal base case for the next FOMCs. Realistically, there are so few factors at play that unless you are golf buddies with one of the federal reserve board members it’s a futile waste of time to even try to predict. You can just look at the “market implied” odds and it will be just as good.

jerome is dropping rates to 0 next week, dont listen to this >>60502059 loser

>>60502059
If you don't like the question avoid this thread.

September is psyop showtime, the Iran attack is not a case, I would agree with your point in general but in these times is where money is

>>60502059
Especially considering the long hold phase, indicators point to a looming recession, and while the ECB cuts steadily, Jerome holds? Fishy af, after a pivot cuts usually last much longer. Holding rates through all this shitshow jus to delay the recession to 2026? I don't buy it, something is about to go down in any direction

>>60502019 (OP)
>KET up 1500%
>mom asks what I’m doing
>tell her I’m staking my trauma
>show her the dashboard
>son, why is your soul in the red?
>KET hits new ATH
>still feel empty
>price goes higher

>>60502107
Why does not cutting now delay a recesion? wouldn't it be the opposite? companies are refinancing at higher interest rates, so this increases amount of bankruptcies and thus of a recession, which then ends in panic cuttings, which is what has happened since the 2000 if you chart FFR vs SP500.
So I don't know why he is not cutting already. I only have 2 theories:

1) He is genuinely worried about inflation. He thinks that if he cuts, inflation will go up
2) He wants a controlled demolition, he is just waiting for shit to hit the fan to have an excuse to lower rates. This way, he will be doing "what's needed" and he will not look bad vs cutting rates and then seeing inflation go up again and have to hike even more (second wave inflation thing). But if there is a hard landing, wouldn't he look bad anyway and would make Trump's "mr too late" take valid?

>>60502019 (OP)
Jerome will cut to finance help to israel

>>60502588
>Why does not cutting now delay a recesion?
Because holding for longer allows market makers to use retail as exit liquidiy for longer at a reasonable price, with steady cuts there'll be more upward volatility short term but the exiting timeframe is significantly shorter
>So I don't know why he is not cutting already
Cutting now would signal market cycle top, I'm not saying cuts aren't coming but after 50 BPS market makers would be on hard exit mode instead the soft exit that is it now so it makes sense to kick the can along the way until you're forced to cut by fundamental reasons, interestingly the current increases in oil prices sustain the current wait and see stance.
>>60502701
He doesn't need to cut for that, treasury bonds will do the trick, also BOJ is expected to hold hikes until September which confirms that September is the FOMC to look at, but I'm not quite sure it'll be a predictable 25 bps cut