Thread 60537984

In 2008, cdo's (collateralized debt obligations) full of junk mortgages in disguise imploded. The aftermath is still felt to this day. As we speak. clo's (collateralized loan obligations) are being filled with junk crypto debt. SBF was a pioneer in this. SBF wasn't just another crypto scammer. He was running a 21st century equivalent of bear stearns cdo fraud. SBF wasn’t an outlier—he was the logical endpoint of a system that rewards:
>"Genius fakery" (Epstein/SBF)
>Regulatory bribes (Bear/FTX)
>Institutionalized gambling (CDOs/CLOs/crypto)
What does epstein have to do with this, you ask.... google where he worked after being a school tutor. bear fucking stearns. despite quiting, he had regular visits to the office until the end. guess who sbf hired as a lawyer? Same guy epstein had. Deustche bank, hired steven williams (ex-bear stearns CDO chief) and put him in charge of their CRYPTO division. Deustche was also laundering money with epstein, then ftx. Apollo, a company sbf bought shit tons of clo's from. a company that gave ftx 400 million months before collapse. Well, Leon Black gave epstein 153m for very vague reasons. He also participated in the bear stearns fraud. His son, "josh black" sat on the ftx advisory board. they are CURRENTLY doing bear level fraud with crypto CLO's. Imagine the 2008 recession but far worse, and all the normies blame YOUR coins for it. The next SBF is already trading ai tokens or climate derivatives, and it's you who's gonna pay the price when his junk explodes. Oh yeah and elons involved, he's filling clo's with his fucked up twitter debt

TLDR; cdo's never went anywhere they just changed name, and they can be used to pop your crypto bags like a balloon whenever. do your own research, and you'll see I'm right. 2008 but worse. you can probably pull off a modern-day big short from this, but I doubt it. Most likely just pain and suffering for us all

>>60538003
brainlet

>>60538006
I don't doubt the connections, New York has strange religious networks.
But Josh Black and Steven Williams and the likes sneaking in crypto debt at institutions, is that speculation drawn from their history and current position, or is there more to it?

>>60538006
I mean, when I found out about staking and institutional repackaging of crypto assets in early 2024, I immediately thought "well, that's the next crash then". But to this day I haven't tried to look it up in detail, I don't have the time to dig into this for weeks.

>>60538034
Sbf's trial revealed apollo referred to ftx notes as "grenades." They knew they were worthless. Josh black is the son of apollo's leon black. Whilst being adviser for ftx. bear stearns called them "banana republic paper." It's the same pattern forming and the same people tied to it. Bear buried subprime debt in cdos. Apollo/deutsche have buried crypto debt in clo's. Blackstone/Elon are already packaging twitter purchase debt in "bespoke tranches." Every single warning sign you need is right here. do more research on the individuals, and you'll see it always links back. There is whistle-blower testimony that williams knew ftx was a house of cards but still pushed it.

>>60538084
So essentially we are betting that people never change?

>>60538130
It's the exact same companies and people who enabled epstein, who are securitizing the erasure of the middle class as we speak. deutsche is moving toxic clo's just like they moved epsteins cash. Apollo is peddling "CLO Grenades" like espteins "finder fees" that vanished. The individuals are mostly involved, but it's not about them. It's about the entire system descending into greed once again.
The only advice is to take your pensions and investments away from anything tainted by CLO's. CDO exposure in 2008 was 700b. CLO exposure in 2024 was 1.3T. The banks have nearly doubled the leverage rates on that also. It will statistically be far worse when it pops

ok. everyone knows the music is going to stop one day, and that it's going to be fast and brutal. Even if you know the reason it will, it doesn't make it any easier to leave the ball because you still have no idea when.

>>60538186
and you have to gamble to keep up with the Joneses.

>>60538163
Anyways, OP, maybe you will come back in a few days or a year or two, when this has happened. I will keep it in mind.

>>60538163
I will look that up for companies I invest in. I think the official tender for useful 4chan posts is cat videos and insults, so I'll post a cat video.

A shit ton of private equity debt matures this year and next year. That could be the match for the double amount of kindling. I have no idea when it will pop, but I'll be here
>>60538214

>>60537984 (OP)
you're wasting your breath
everyone is just full on 100% normalcy bias now
only reality actually crashing the market will get people to snap out of it

>>60538225
Thank you, anon. I feel schizophrenic but this all lines up for total disaster. I'd love someone to explain that I'm wrong, though

I'm not american but, they saved SVB. what makes you think they give a shit? just print some more money to save banks and buy stocks, and everything will keep working as if nothing happened. the public will pay, but the american public elects clowns, and it's not like they have options either...

>>60538235
you're not wrong but if you're a long term investor it also just doesn't matter. crashes are noise in the long run, you'd have to be overleveraged or have panic sold in 2008 to actually have lost any money. We will crash hard, then recover, whether it takes 1 or 10 years also doesn't matter much because the longer it's down the harder it will revert to the mean upwards (think everything following the lost decade), and the longer you have to accumulate more at a discount.

The crash should really only matter to you if you've got a lot of leverage, or you're just trading because that's the opportunity of a lifetime if you can time it (you can't)

>>60538255
But one wouldn't recover from investing into some non-bank company that holds these poisoned assets. They even let go of FTX and put SBF in jail for a few months for ruining a million lives, so only really, really big institutions get away with it without a slap on the wrist. And even then, they will pull every string to make the small investors pay for the big ones to keep their profits.

>>60538255
tainting public perception of crypto will fuck a lot of people on here, but you're correct. it will bounce back like last time. then the countdown continues until the next unchecked round of laws pass for wall st, and we end up here again

>>60538225
AI is getting out of hand

>>60538229
>>60538235
Given FTX went under 2.5 years ago now, I'm wondering if it's possible that this doesn't pop? If it does the catalyst must be huge. What actually triggered the pop in 08?

>>60538332
The shitty mortgages were adjustable, I believe they started adjusting in 06/07. people who hadn't seen any increase in wage, which were suddenly expected to pay twice the interest for their home/homes. By late 07, the writing was on the wall, and defaults were rising. In 08 it all collapses. Pensions across earth collapse with it. My theory is private equity defaults for this one, but I really don't know.

BIG SHORT TARGETS ( I have no money to actually do this, do I loan max?)

>CalPERS (USA) / CLO = $48b / junk = 38%
>USS (UK) / CLO = £32b / Junk =41%
>CPP (CAN) / CLO = c$67b / junk = 45%
(All according to various sources, take with shot of salt)

The real question is when you'd short these. Are there any asian quants here?

>>60538404
>were suddenly expected to pay twice the interest for their home/homes
Isn't this a direct result of increased FFR? Rates peaked in late 06, starting the collapse thereafter. This time FFR peaked in late 23 and is already on its way back down. That seems to imply the implosion is either happening like right now or won't be triggered the same way?

>>60538509
Mortgages don't fill up the majority of junk in clo's now. Houses won't trigger it, major events or mass defaults would.

>>60538525
I know houses won't trigger it. My assumption is these crypto backed loans, like the mortgages in 08, aren't fixed-rate and thus will have rising payments with rising FFR.

>>60538540
I see what you mean. My issue is if the crypto itself is dead. A "bbb" rated clo that's filled with dead crypto debt. If every triple b clo is like that, what happens when moodys finally gives in and lowers the rating? Or the SEC gets feisty?

>>60537984 (OP)
It dumped a bit, but the loans are rising again

>>60538006
Why are you an antisemite?

>>60538251
"Elects"
You retard: there are no choices, only illusions.

>>60537984 (OP)
Nice, informative thread for once, thanks OP

>>60537984 (OP)
Interesting thread op...
I'm curious as to what specific CLO funds are currently holding crypto-backed debt?
Can you give us any CLOs by name or CUSIP?

Apollo held Celsius network debt. A goldman sachs CLO held genesis capital debt. It's hard to find a lot of it, as its stuffed into triple b's quietly. The problem is that it isn't just crypto tainting these, my prediction is crypto gets the main blame. Normies already hate it.

>CLOs Desperate for Collateral Are Loading Up on Junk Bonds
>Bonds now make up record 16% of CLO portfolios in Europe
>Addition of fixed-rate debt risks mismatched payments
>Fund managers keen to restart the lucrative CLO-making machine are having to stretch the bounds of what counts as collateral behind these deals.

This is from bloomberg, September 2023. I'd assume it's gotten worse since then
>>60538775

I'm going to bed, so I'm gonna post this one more time. It's the most important thing I said

>The only advice is to take your pensions and investments away from anything tainted by CLO's. CDO exposure in 2008 was 700b. CLO exposure in 2024 was 1.3T. The banks have nearly doubled the leverage rates on that also. It will statistically be far worse when it pops

I mean, treat the shit like aids. I don't think anything makes it worth the risk

>>60538324
if public perception on crypto is currently that it's not as risky as it truly is, that's a perception built on a lie which will cause more harm than good.

don't let this thread die, fags

>>60537984 (OP)
Alright the big question, how do I profit from their stupidity? Short crypto and relevant companies that hold it?

>>60537984 (OP)
>What does epstein have to do with this, you ask.... google where he worked after being a school tutor. bear fucking stearns. despite quiting, he had regular visits to the office until the end. guess who sbf hired as a lawyer? Same guy epstein had. Deustche bank, hired steven williams (ex-bear stearns CDO chief) and put him in charge of their CRYPTO division. Deustche was also laundering money with epstein, then ftx. Apollo, a company sbf bought shit tons of clo's from. a company that gave ftx 400 million months before collapse. Well, Leon Black gave epstein 153m for very vague reasons. He also participated in the bear stearns fraud. His son, "josh black" sat on the ftx advisory board. they are CURRENTLY doing bear level fraud with crypto CLO's
How can we verify this is true? if not, how do you know it is?

First post I've seen in a whole that doesn't feel like brain liquifying slop thanks OP

>>60537984 (OP)
>junk crypto debt.
what's this

>>60537984 (OP)
you're fucking retarded and you don't know what a CDO is lol

>>60543132
he made it up

>>60538855
if this is true op, you are the next michael burry. thanks for this post. going to sell all of my crypto soon.

>>60543427
elaborate

>>60538225
It's a cool evening and the kots like the feeling of the warm light.

>>60538163
>CDO exposure in 2008 was 700b. CLO exposure in 2024 was 1.3T
eh, yawn. the money supply has tripled so exposure is relatively lower than 2008