BREAKING : WE ARE IN RECESSION, BUT GOVT RELEASING FAKE NUMBERS TO HIDE IT
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1951260821671006405

So govt's trick seems to be release fake high job numbers when everyone pays attention. Then 2 months later revise it down, when no one cares about past numbers.

>>60721683 (OP)
has this been fact-checked?

This was already known. At the tail end of 2024 they revised the entire year's numbers and eliminated 1 million jobs they claimed had been created in that time frame.

>>60721683 (OP)
No shit

>>60721691
fpbp
this smells like disinformation

Fuck yeah, lets pump for lower rates

@grok is this true?

>>60721691
It's on all the majors. Bloomberg, CNBC, it's real.

>>60721683 (OP)
OMFG ITS FUCKIN HAPPENING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
EVERYONE SELL YOUR HOUSES, GOLD, FOOD, GUNS, COINS, SOULS.
SELL EVERYTHING QUICK, JESUS IS RETURNING TOMORROW BY 4 PM THE APOCALYPSE IS BEFORE OUR VERY OWN EYES WE ARE GOING TO HELL NEXT WEEK AFTER THE JUDGEMENT DAY PHASE!!!!!!!!!!!! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>>60721762
Why does it feel like this though? I remember a lot of euphoria for both of the last cycles. We are in a weird place now.

>>60721683 (OP)
yeah no shit. the job market has been in the fucking toilet for the past 3 years. im a middle management six figure nigger (not a tech industry faggot) and it's SLIM PICKINGS when i look at job postings.

the numbers were fraudulent under niggerbama. they were fraudlent under biden. they're fraudulent under drumpf. if you dug into it, you would probably see less integrity in reporting than in the latter days of the USSR.

>>60721740
Just to be clear, the report is real. The numbers are fake and gay. How the fuck do you go from 145,000 jobs reported in may to lol no ackshually it's 19,000 sorry 8 weeks later?

Not credible numbers. What the fuck.

>>60721683 (OP)
How could they have released such totally inaccurate jobs reports originally?

>>60721838
Knowing this admin, the original report was probably AI generated

>>60721838
You're asking the right questions.

>>60721811
It's called, lying. They don't call the USA great Satan for nothing.

>>60721683 (OP)

>>60721768
it feels this way because it is this way. we all saw the last WEF conference and how they talked about the new economic model is going to be based on the internet of bodies.
we all saw how trump is shilling crypto like there is no tomorrow or yesterday.
we all know what agenda 2030 is.
I was mocking OP because it just can't happen fast enough. C0vid 1984 was fun (minus those people who were forced to take the shots despite not wanting to take them), but turned out to be a nothingburger soon after. i just wish something would finally happen.

>>60721838
>Each month the CES program surveys about 121,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 631,000 individual worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls. The active sample includes approximately one-third of all nonfarm payroll jobs.

there are 160 million nonfarm wageniggers in the jewSA. they claim to have sampled 1/3 of all workers (55 million) by surveying 121k businesses? this sounds extraordinarily optimistic and probably a lie, which is why the numbers are revised downward all the time.

>>60721838
>>60721907
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

>>60721683 (OP)
Jesus christ, minus like 120k? Has it ever been this bad?

>>60721683 (OP)
Anyone with an IQ above 93 has known we've been in a recession for years, since around late mid trumps first term and continuing on. The real question is when is it going to turn into a full blown depression?

>>60721907
At this point I can't tell if they're lying to put pressure on Powell, or if they were lying before and things are actually this bad. The only thing I'm sure of is they're lying.

>>60721941
won't July jobs report probably also be revised down fi they havent changed their emthods in the past 3 months?
I wonder, what is the difference between the pre-revised May-June versus July job report? Will it be even worse?

>>60721683 (OP)
>BREAKING : WE ARE IN RECESSION
I mean firing people en masse and tariffing the entire world ofc we're in a recession, the only question is if we have another squeeze to squoze before bear

>>60721941
It could be we're finally seeing full effects of the tariff shenanigans on the economy.

>>60722022
I would say all we have been seeing is a minor effect Tariffs could have on the economy because Trump kept jumping back and forth. Now that various countries have them in effect as of today we could start seeing what real effect tariffs will have and not just the on and off again talk of tariffs.
I feel like part of the reason the Feds won't do anything about rates is because only a few countries such as Canada were facing active tariffs during the last few months while everyone else just knew they had tariffs coming. Now anything coming into America is facing 15% at the very least.

> this is good actually!

MIGAtards on suicide watch, Zion don the child rapist making you all poorer and you’re still defending him hahaha. You don’t have to reply agreeing with me, I would hate for you to end up on Loomers palantir generated deportation list.

>>60721937
??? yes lil bro. biden announced 3mil jobs in 2024, but it was 2mil.

>>60722056
>Trump kept jumping back and forth
I think that's even worse, cause companes can't plan for the future. If trump would stop TACOing, it would suck, but atleast you know what to expect 3 months down the line.

>>60721838

> why would a narcissistic retard who takes credit for every minor gain but blames every drawback on his predecessor stuff govt agencies with yes men who’s job is to massage his image

Gee I wonder

>>60722056
??? did you not see the record tariff revenues collected this year?

the absolute state of zoomer biz.

> Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past

Uneducated magats voted for it

>>60722098

Paid by US citizens, you complete fucking retard.

>>60721811
Woaw who could believe Trump would ever lie to that extent wtf. Who could have seen it coming

>>60722108
nope. all my prices have been the same, or even lower.
i'm not poor, so i spend a lot of money.

>>60721811
wait until you find out how they've been calculating inflation

>>60722126
Please give examples of "all your prices".

>>60721691
@gork is this true???

>>60722126

Jan 25 CPI: 317
June 25 CPI: 322

That’s up almost 2% in 5 months, without the influence of any tariffs since trump is such a homo he has chickened out multiple times, it’s only up from here retard, dramatically up.

>>60722098
the tariffs are a tax and the benefits are fuck all relative to our amount of deficit spending. keep in mind that we would be in a net loss position in a normal month due to timing adjustments, and keep in mind that the 2026+ budget will further increase in the monthly deficit.
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/current.html

>>60722146
just ordered another apple macbook. go check the prices, lowest yet.
all consumer electronics are lower. all my grocery prices are the same or even lower.

>>60722111
its not just trump

>>60722146

> dialators
> bad dragon toys
> funko pops
>

>>60722166
fucking lmao at this larper
>hmm what's a luxury good that i can use to flex... how about... hmmm... a macbook... yeah, that'll do
OHHHHHH SAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAR

>>60722165
muh deficit spending deflection.
>>60722176
i can tell you are poor, lol.

>>60722197
do you have a learning disability?

>>60722194
huh? you can't even afford a macbook? good news they are cheap right now.

>>60721683 (OP)
I'm not american but I know (thanks to /biz/) that they've been doing this for a while. even the biden admin did it. they "revise" the reports all the time...

this is about last years report: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/21/economy/bls-jobs-revisions
>When spread through the prior year, the average monthly job gain from April 2023 through March 2024 was 173,500 versus nearly 242,000, an analysis of BLS data shows.

but yeah, that seems to be a rather big drop

>>60722210
do you?
>well ackchually i know the tariff revenues are at record high, but let me tell you about something else instead...

>>60721683 (OP)
This has been happening for years. They even changed the definition of a recession and locked the wiki.

OP is not correct. Jobs numbers are a statistical estimates based on surveys by reports of a sample comprised of reports from hiring managers. Later they are revised on followup surveys.

This is how modern nations do things. Getting accurate long-term historical data is really important.

Now, some nations don't use modern statistical methods. They do not revise, and their historical numbers are garbage. Consequently no one invests there. You can guess which nations these are. They're the ones where no one knows what the real numbers are and the data they have is useless.

>>60722056
Lol, he just added another 10% tariff in canada because they plan recognize Palestine. this makes the total 35%

>>60722277
Don't forget about the 50% Brazilian tarrifs because they're prosecuting one of his friends

>>60722071
That's for a whole year though. If we keep going on this rate we're barely gonna break 1.5 million.

don't be a panican, trust the plan

>>60721691
Here you go bro, bottom paragraph
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

>>60722056
>Guys he's totally not gonna start going on and off again this time
Yeah I don't believe that. Trump has economical schizophrenia; no deal made with him survives 2-3 months before he starts on something again.

>>60722277
why Canada but not France and the UK too?
Has no one told him yet? is that incoming?

>>60722296
With 75% of the itens that Brazil export being exempt, the only thing getting the tariffs are coffe and meat (of all kinds, from fish to beef).

>>60722239
hey dummy, tariffs are the "customs duties" in my graphic.

>>60722323
phew its a good thing we dont drink coffee or eat meat here

>>60722343
ground beef will soon be a luxury item.

>>60722303
What plan?

>>60721691
Yep, we've got a left-wing disinformation campaign going on rn

>>60722369

>>60722343
>>60722358
Yeah, the prices are already up, and considering Brazil is the largest producer of both beef and coffe, I would expect the prices to explode.

>>60722389
"It will be very painful...for you"

True.

>>60722339
yes, and???

that anon said:
> only a few countries such as Canada were facing active tariffs
which is false. which is why we collected record tariff revenue. lol.

>>60722313
Because Trump has a very specific bone to pick with Canada which is why they are likely not going to get a deal because he doesn't seem to want to give them a deal. The reasoning for the jump to 35% is because Canada isn't doing enough to combat Fentayl, in America's own statement, meanwhile Mexico, where far more drugs come in from, got a 90 day extension because they are being more cooperative.

>>60722417
i'm done, can't be bothered to translate my thoughts into something an 80-100 IQ can understand.

>>60722440
>why won't this anon allow me to change the subject!!!
heh

A trillion miggers can screech and foam aboit how flawless and perfect king migger's economy is, it doesn't make the recent crop of homeless young white women begging on the same street corners in my town that were once only occupied by the worst fent zombie niggers just two years ago disappear from my memory
We are F U C K E D
I wish there was a futures contract expiring 2029 on whether all internet migger shills are on thiel's payroll

The US economy needs to collapse already

>>60721941

>>60722457
>homeless young white women begging on the street corners

I just got a boner. Am I a bad person?

>>60721683 (OP)
sometimes they lie for an entire year

>>60722472
No you're just an israeli op

Someone say it isn't so I feel physically ill

>>60721941
>>60722467
So, were the previous numbers just straight up lies or absurd incompetence?

>>60721720
oops i just posted about this

>>60722277
>The White House has said the tariffs won’t be applied to goods that are compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade, also known as CUSMA.

>Companies can claim preferential treatment under CUSMA if they meet its rules of origin. While it is different depending on the product, generally it requires a specific amount of the goods be made of products or with labour originating from Canada, Mexico or the United States.

>About 80 to 90 per cent of Canadian goods might be able to comply with CUSMA’s rules of origin, said Michael Dobner, the national leader of economics and policy practice at PricewaterhouseCoopers Canada.

>>60722494
So, like the tariffs on Brazil, that are absurdly high but affect very few itens.

>>60722464
Trump's working on it as fast as he can, give him a break he's only been back since January

>>60722421
so why the Canada hate?
They are not actually going to become the 51st state so whats the objective here?

>>60722531
he's probably assmad about some real estate thing they blocked 20ish years ago, kinda like how he spent a good chunk of his first term shitting on the NFL over his failed bid to buy a team ages ago

>>60722517
There was also huge exemptions for important categories of Chinese goods
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-excludes-smartphones-computers-reciprocal-tariffs-2025-04-12/

>>60722546
We all get to pay the price for things Trump didn't get 20 years ago, great

>>60721937
Yes, April 2020. Other than that, no.

>>60722593
How are these tariffs supposed to incentivize industrial expansion in the US when all critical industries are exempt? And at what point does the world just ignore them wherever possible because tariffs are now imposed on non-trade issues and there is no stability for rates based on prior announced agreements and....ah fuck it.

>>60722614
According to game theory, once in power, proponents of protectionism are guided less by a pure search for empirical truth and more by the logic of maximizing their relative advantage in a strategic, interactive political and economic game. Their incentives are not to objectively prove, once and for all, that protectionism “works,” but rather to manage the payoffs and responses that maintain their position and satisfy core supporters

>>60722614
The tariffs are paying for Trumps 400 million jet refurb and 200 million white house ballroom

Guys I just got a job offer for a US company. Should I be worried?

This isn't new and we have been in a recession for a while now

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/nonfarm-payroll-growth-revised-down-by-818000-labor-department-says.html

They covered it up by importing in 10 million warm bodies to simulate growth

>>60722690
enjoy your 15 days of PTO a year kek

>>60722614
Rejoice, O American manufacturers, for the USA now has the world's most expensive steel prices, more than twice as expensive as China's, and very high prices for many types of input goods and capital goods

>>60722614
>incentivize industrial expansion

>>60722489
Probably a lot of both
You can't trust an economy based on debt. Simple as.

>>60721683 (OP)
I get it now, the orange retard wanted to keep a good image but now he wants the Fed to cut rates... and so, he had the numbers "revised" way down

american politicians have no shame kek

>>60722748
That steel price comes with the guarantee the alloy you're buying is exactly what you're getting
Chinese steel is cheap for a reason. Those purchase orders are lottery tickets
>t. auxiliary to manufacturing

>>60721941
Good jobs numbers put less pressure on Powell

>>60721683 (OP)
its worth lying if it prevents total collapse. fake it until you make it.

>>60722763
KEK. fucking gay ass niggerscam service ecoonomy.

>>60721683 (OP)
I literally made a thread 2 days ago about the 3 percent GDP growth being an obvious lie because the real economy is imploding. Turns out I was fucking right like usual. Bitcoin 90K by september

>>60721683 (OP)
QUICK. WE NEED 510.000 MONTHLY JEETS TO SOLVE THIS.

>>60722891
The job market is no longer a good indicate for strength of economy because AI

>>60722926
2030 headline: triple digit quarterly GDP growth, mass starvation

>>60722926
this is no different than china juicing its gdp with empty buildings

>>60722945
>mutt cope #3283094509

>>60722748
china has more lax environmental laws. they also get most of their electricity from coal while we phase coal out.

american voters say they want a cleaner grid and to protect the environment it would be hypocritical to import dirty chinese steel too.

>>60722951
im glad i dont live in either of those countries

>>60722951
Orthogonal information.
>>60722926
>>60722940
The purpose of America is to turn data centers into healthcare for boomers.

>>60722957
yeah the absolute horror of living in a 95% racially homogeneous country controlled by a strong central government that doesn't rape children on an island controlled by israeli intelligence.
>>60722958
so true. what's good for the jewish LLM CEO and cloud service provider is good for the goy.

>>60722971
i dont want to live in china or kazakhstan. its not really up for debate.

do you think this july figure is accurate? they overstated may and june by over 1,000% or some shit.

>>60722952
I don't think that really applies to steel making. Metallurgical coal is the fuel for both blast furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces.

It might apply to electrical furnaces used to recycle scrap. However, I think the main reason the US has been phasing out thermal coal is because fracked natural gas is cheaper.

>>60722980
rent's due, goy

>>60721691
>UHM SOURCE?!?!

>>60721683 (OP)
this is bullish. it's government job cuts and immigration crackdown, nothing more. ofc jobs will go down.

private payrolls for native workers were up 300k in July.

>>60723075
american voters say they want a cleaner grid and to protect the environment. it would be hypocritical to import dirty chinese steel too.

you can read about more environmentally friendly steel efforts here in the US from many sources.

https://www.ussteel.com/sustainable-steel

>As for thermal coal, I think the main reason the US has been phasing out thermal coal is because fracked natural gas is cheaper
this is wrong. US voters want to stop using coal for power generation. we are shutting down perfectly economical coal plants and replacing them with more expensive wind and solar (as well as building new billion dollar nat gas plants)

>>60723113
keep coping.

>>60723105
you should move to china or kazak and be happy for once

>>60723134
As far as I can tell, "verdeX" and "induX" are just US Steel brand names for steel that is made with a large content of recycled scrap. Recycling scrap is a very a common practice all over the world.

According to this, induX production line will be 200k tonnes per year, which is basically nothing. American steel production just in the month of March was 6.7 million tonnes
https://www.ussteel.com/newsroom/-/blogs/u-s-steel-introduces-indux-electrical-steel-at-ceres-global

For the last ~20 years, natural gas prices have been dropping due to improved extraction technology, while electricity generation has remained flat. It's only natural that the electricity generation mix would shift to more natural gas

China is building some "green steel" capability as well, which I think is mostly to circumvent the CBAM tariffs the EU plans to levy starting in 2026

>>60721683 (OP)
>Fakes the job numbers
>Powell doesn't cut because fake job numbers are good
>Revise the fake numbers a day after the non-cut
This is so fucking retarded man. Clownworld bullshit.

>>60723232
>For the last ~20 years, natural gas prices have been dropping due to improved extraction technology, while electricity generation has remained flat
In the US, I meant

BUT ANONS THE GOVERNMENT HAS BADE BILLIONS FROM TARIFFS ALL IS WELL

>>60722369

>>60722531
>so why the Canada hate?
a pro-trump candidate was almost certainly going to win the election
then trump started sperging out about annexing canada
this changed sentiment so much, it made an anti-trump candidate win the election, out of nowhere, against all odds

he is probably anally devastated for this

>>60723298
People also speculate it was about Trudeau since Melania was apparently getting a bit too friendly with him and Trudeau had bad mouthed Trump once Trump was out of office, but the fact that this stuff has continued under Carney implies that it's likely a bit more than that even if Trump is an incredibly petty person.

>>60723298
Do you think Donald took this as feedback and became less Trump-y?

>>60721683 (OP)
Yerp seeing as how the Don is acting the real GDP is probably half of guv number. He needed rates down to renegotiate some of the debt and to blame the other guy. Trump yelling on mt.doom to lower the rates. JPow though has everyone by the balls and said 'No'.

>>60721838
because all humans are corrupt and everything is a fucking lie to save face and keep the populace pacified

>>60722987
Considering they consistently lie and then publish "le revised numbers," of course not.
>fake and gay inflation calculations
>fake and gay unemployment statistics
>fake and gay job creation
>why does the wagie hate his cagie??? the numbers are so good!

>>60723817
>this isn't a recession, its a
>V I B E C E S S I O N
never underestimate the bullshit propagandists will put out

>>60721683 (OP)
So is it true that 100,000 of those jobs were illegal immigrant jobs and thats the reason they revised it?
kill illegals btw with guns in real life

>>60721683 (OP)
We've been in recession for 3 years thoughever.

>>60723893
What lost jobs? There are no lost jobs under Trump. Those are Biden lies.

I dont trust any financial reports anymore, elites know to manipulate the figures to prevent panic and unrest. They only 'revise' the numbers long after the market impact can account for it.

Meanwhile you can ask everyday normal people about their economic situation to get a better gauge on reality. Worse economy in decades, but they wont say it on TV.

>>60723893
And John Boomerberg, the business owner that employs both of these laborers? The one that drives a brand new 911 gt3rs and buys a new rolex every few months?

Surely this will help the market recover.

>>60723984
>Meanwhile you can ask everyday normal people about their economic situation to get a better gauge on reality. Worse economy in decades, but they wont say it on TV.
Yes. This isn't strictly a US thing. I'm from Croatia and our government does the same. Also, a few months ago the US changed the way they measure basically every economic indicator so the US wouldn't be in a recession, but it is. Just like you said. We all are. It's a global meltdown at worst, a recession at best.

Given that the whole West seems to be moving in lockstep trying to censor and control the Internet 8UK the most because it's utterly fucked) it's possible we're in for a total collapse.

>we

>>60724129
>we're in for a total collapse
Definitely
But I suspect it won't happen on this spin of the cycle. Look at how compliant the masses were under the lockdowns. There's a ways before critical mass. Crypto, if used intelligently, could actually navigate us out of total collapse by refocusing on sound money. We *won't* go that route, because the greed and corruption is far too entrenched, but the option hasn't expired yet

>>60724380
>Crypto, if used intelligently, could actually navigate us out of total collapse by refocusing on sound money.
Man you had me until then

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/trump-orders-firing-bls-commissioner-weak-jobs-report-rcna222531
it's happening?
next month, you won't even get to know the corrected numbers!

>>60721683 (OP)
schizos were right again. i and many many others have been saying this for years but now it's official.

>>60721720
that was the most egregious one but they've been doing it since at least 2021
the big secret is that all numbers are manipulated.
the one that's most obvious to me right now is how they are manipulating the bond yield curve and 10y yield.

in a bigger sense, they've been doing this with every financial number, for fucking ever. remember the LIBOR rigging scandal (aka the base number for every interest rate in the world)? or how the world gold bullion price was set every morning by a small group of men in the rothschild bank in the city of london for a long time? not making that up- look it up.

>>60724423
if you read between the lines, this means that ww3 is going live. economic warfare is part of ww3 so these numbers are a matter of national security. we're moving onto a wartime footing but they can't say it out loud without triggering a panic.

>>60721683 (OP)
how the hell can they be revised that much

>>60721691
If the President doesn't confirm it, then it's not true.

>>60723934
>>60723999
the level of discourse on this board is beyond retarded holy shit.

What cave did you crawl out of?

>>60721683 (OP)

>>60724423
ADP the payment processing company already provides better data than the BLS. If you see Trump going after ADP in the coming months, that's when you panic.

>>60721683 (OP)
Bullish. Can we start printing money again?

>>60721720
That wasn't even too bad. That was 33% over an entire year; this is 90% over a single month.
>>60724816
They really fucked up.
>>60721941
They weren't lying to put pressure on Powell. Apparently, economists at the Fed were scratching their heads at the abnormally high jobs numbers, since most of the other indicators they were following were giving off warning signs. Now it turns out the jobs numbers align with the other economic indicators, for better or worse.
>>60722489
I think they just counted wrong. Perhaps their sample wasn't actually as representative of the greater economy as they thought. Last time they screwed up this badly was COVID, and the tariff situation has been similarly chaotic FOR SOME REASON, so it makes sense they'd drop the ball here, too.
Unfortunately, with the rise in inflation combined with the lack of job creation, it's safe to say the US has found itself in stagflation. Lord have mercy on the American people.

>>60725114
i already edited the stagflation wikipedia page to change its definition so the crisis has been preemptively averted, thank me later

>>60721683 (OP)
In less than 2 years it will not only be allowed to beat up, torture and murder any and all trump supporters. It will be encouraged. And that's unironically a good thing.

>>60724423
They will be the best numbers. The bigliest numbers, much better than under Bidens failed woke regime

>>60721683 (OP)
Lol all the warning signs were there that this orange retard was going to tank the economy but nobody listened. MAH TARIFFS GOYIM.

There is no recession in Ba Sing Se.

>>60725300
Based Avatar fan. What kind of bender would you be? Personally, I’d be an earth chad

>>60725458
>picks the gayest element
ngmi

>>60721877
I just realized it's actually pretty cool that others outside the US see us as gunsligning, hot-headed lying son of a bitches that have managed to dominate the world. Like how cool being on the right side of that

Sorry nopt sorry, pajeets

>>60721939
2019 was the last year the economy was truly good.

>>60722056
I think there are a lot of people who haven't priced in tariffs because they fell for the TACO meme. Buy signal is when these people start freaking out.

>>60721683 (OP)
Believe the same woman who had jobs up 140k for election and then revised them down, then revised jobs 800k to almost nothing and got away with it. She was fired because she sucked.

>>60721683 (OP)
copper shit the bed in the matter of one or two days, down over a dollar now

>>60722531
Canada made the mistake of thinking they were a nominally equal voice at the table instead of properly realizing that they're at absolute best a junior partner and should largely shut the fuck up and do what they're told. Its not personal, its just business.

>>60722531
Canada was already a piñata for conservatives to beat on for... having healthcare or something, I don't know. So he's playing to his base.

wow they should fire whoever did such a shit job and replace them with someone competent

>>60723893
>kill the people that make the jobs we don't want to do
The US will collapse under Dontarded policies kek

>>60722475
>woopsie doopsie :3

>>60722531
>so why the Canada hate?

>>60722958
>The purpose of America is to turn data centers into healthcare for boomers.
how are they gonna achieve this?

>>60725963
>That makes me a sad panda!

>>60725972
Have you ever seen the first Matrix?

>>60726031
oh.. i mean, that's not even so crazy to think about these days..

>>60722971
meds

>>60722303
Im a Planican.

>>60725180
This anon saved the economy and didn't even get a (you)

>>60725300
Kek

>>60725458
Water bender for me

>>60721683 (OP)
Why should I give a heck about american job numbers, I'm just going to hold BTC for 8 years and make money that's about it, you guys are so incredibly stupid it's unreal

We've been in a recession since 2022, but this time we live in a extreme government gaslighting timeline so there won't ever be an official acknowledgement of the recession.

>>60721911
>https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf


>Job losers and people who completed temporary jobs..

Fake timeline

>>60724008
>words are very important and can often lead to unintended consequences

No way trump wrote this.

the fuck is this wording

>>60721683 (OP)
>WE ARE IN RECESSION
No shit. Everyone has known this since 2020.

>>60726901
Yeah i dont think he's that self aware

>>60722987
It was probably negative, revising these is a normal practice firing the department because you demand the numbers be good is a new chapter in the U.S. though

>>60727310
The timing is suspicious. Biden gets a whole year to fix shit before they revise his job numbers, Trump's numbere are revised -90% right after the fed decides not to cut rates because the numbers are good. I'd fire that Biden appointee too.

>>60721683 (OP)
WHY COULDNT THEY REVISE IT BEFORE THE FOMC? FUCK

>>60722614
>incentivize industrial expansion in the US
StonetossBurgers?. jpeg

>>60726907
It is a term in labor market economics. Discouraged workers are workers who could work and would prefer to work but have given up on actively seeking work

>>60725684
I think that was because Trump's copper tariffs turned out to be a lot less expansive than expected

>>60727402
Job numbers were revised down -818k in August 2024, not long before the election, I don't think Biden appreciated that

>>60721683 (OP)
Okay so lets assume that we ARE in a recession

What do I go all in on? Physical gold?

>>60727402
I mean would you rather have had a whole year of rates based on false numbers before "Oh by the way we've been getting less than 20k jobs each month"

>>60724803
>LIBRO scandal
Yea, wasn't that all done by the sandy hook kids dad?

>>60723934
Kekaroo

>>60722056
As someone that pays tariffs...it makes me want to import WAY less and in practical terms I HAVE to import less of what I want.

If he keeps getting tariffs removed from other countries on the US like he's been doing this will take effect in a major way.
So far about a billion people have moved from massive tariffs on US goods to zero tariffs on US goods. (europe, vietnam, indonesia)

>>60722160
Tariff payer here. They've been in full swing for months.

>>60727559
>So far about a billion people have moved from massive tariffs on US goods to zero tariffs on US goods. (europe, vietnam, indonesia)
Those deals haven't been implemented yet. Not to mention they include a higher tariff rate on US goods going out.

>>60723277
kek

>>60723999
Checked. He goes out of business or makes less money.

>>60727559
What massive European tariffs? The EU's average tariff rate on US goods has been about 1%
VAT is not a tariff

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_25_541

I think Vietnam's average tariff was 7%, Indonesia's was 8%, however their demand for US goods is small anyway so it doesn't really matter

>>60724008
>>60726901
Firstly everything Trump says is for effect and to think he doesn't know the effect seems unlikely to me.

Secondly, taking his words seriously as if he doesn't understand them...
>words can have unintended consequences
>basically threatens to nuke russia
Nothing unintended could come from this obviously.

>>60723893
This chart is so genuinely retarded
>Yeah John Legal makes more money, but then he spends more money on things that Juan Illegal somehow gets for free
>Why John Legal doesn't use those same programs to get things for free and keep more of his money is unclear
>John Legal is just wasteful with his money.

>>60727567
Um, yes they are.
I deal with CBP. Europe one is probably still being rammed through, but the Vietnam deal is for sure in effect as I import little (useful) pieces of shit from Vietnam.
The deal is for sure in effect.

Now the effect of them not tariffing us probably has not had time to do anything, but it is for sure in effect.
And with these being in effect a shit ton of activity is moving to Vietnam over China because 20% is (does math on a piece of paper for 5 minutes) 5x less than the tariffs in China.
These other countries are getting a LOT of business for opening up.

Really no one here does imports so they just discuss based on the news.
I talk on the phone to CBP and logistics/drayage corps two times a week.
The information in the news is not even close to accurate and even the HTS website is not reflective of the new policies.
It's been a total shitshow and it's half hilarious because you can tell they are at their wits end and constantly front run every conversations with "blame Trump."

I'm not on the phone to blame, just to understand, but it's a theme. They are probably dealing so many super pissed people they just default "Hello, what would you like? And remember it's not me it's Trump." at this point.

>>60727579
This is why Trump talks about "non tariff barriers."
They dropped all the stuff that was designed, in a non tariff way, to basically make all our products impossible or illegal to import.

>>60727597
>Guys we can sell cars more easily in vietnam now!
>We just have to pay more for everything from vietnam!
So we're more free to sell things Vietnam doesn't buy in the first place, and it's more expensive to get the things we've been buying from them. This is retarded.

>>60727619
I was referring to Europe which was what the other anon commented about specifically.
So...

If you want to be not retarded and talk about what's happening then you can look at what I said about businesses moving production to Vietnam and countries that are getting a better deal than China.
It's a geopolitical move on this end to encourage the foreign manufacturing that will for sure continue to diversify and move out of the singular location of China.
This makes it easier to control and shifts world power because world manufacturing resources are spreading out a lot thinner.
This has been happening for ten years.

Now, how's your latest shitcoin doing son?

>>60727619
Also, given your retardation I expect a retarded response to this. But I expect there will be another tax cut on low income towards midterms once they've shown they can collect it from corporations and generally rich people (me) instead.
I think they are heading towards 400 billion in this calendar year.

Maybe not, but regardless. I pay the tariffs and they are a tax on me specifically, but I don't just whine like a baby because I have kids and really quite a few things need done for them to have any chance.
They've alluded to the External Revenue Service for years and about 25% of IRS agents are gone. They don't plan on needing them it appears.
And at the very least they won't have the resources to keep up. I've just filed 2023 (after an extension) and I'm still getting my refund with no penalty.
There are a lot of business costs being eliminated. The IRS alone is a trillion a year drain on economic activity.
You would know this if you did economic activity of any regard.

>>60727597
> to basically make all our products impossible or illegal to import
As was mentioned in the link, the EU buys almost as much from the US as the US buys from the EU (taking into account both goods and services)

According to the EU commission, this what was agreed on in terms of non-tariff barriers:

>Reducing non-tariff barriers, including via cooperation on car/automotive standards and SPS (sanitary and phytosanitary) measures, and by facilitating mutual recognition of conformity assessments in additional industrial sectors.

No more details are given and apparently no legally binding documents have been or will be signed

Its the sahm rule. Remember when the lady lied to help Biden.

Now everyone is taking a second look at it and are now saying its ACK-tually real data after they finished pumping fake numbers in.

>>60727656
i laugh whenever i remember that.
>ERM UMM... ACTUALLY UHH -- IT'S NOT A RULE AT ALL!!!!!
they must have threatened to kill her o algo.

>>60721683 (OP)
End the FED.

>>60727597
?
two deindustrialized economies do not trade with each other

>>60722160
I don't think CPI numbers since April can be considered particularly reliable. The BLS has apparently started using imputation on a massive scale in lieu of actually collecting data

there is no such thing as "discouraged from finding work" everyone has to make money to live

>>60727633
>>60727649
>Guys they'll totally shift away from China instead of shifting away from the US.
>Trust the plan
The plan isn't working.

>But I expect there will be another tax cut on low income towards midterms once they've shown they can collect it from corporations and generally rich people (me) instead.
Wow, rich retard out here like "Hmmm, you peasants will probably get a tax break next, don't worry". Even though you just got your taxes reduced. Fucking parasite.

>>60727654
Okay.
Get ready for your chlorinated chicken regardless.

>>60727717
This is happening and has been for 10 years.
I literally do this for a living. I don't know why you want to be combative instead of learning.
Vietnam processing and manufacturing up 10% year over year.
Again. I literally do work with these people and Taiwan, China, etc.
There are discussion non stop going with everyone on how and where to produce.
I just sourced ceramics out of both Vietnam and Taiwan when five years ago they had zero options whatsoever for ceramics.
https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/vietnam-manufacturing-tracker.html/

>>60727736
Considering how much EU politicians gush over Trump in public, you would think they would have announced it by now if they were planning to do it. This was all that was mentioned in terms of US food exports

>>60727717
DOGE savings checks will be sent out at 1,000 bucks a pop mark my words

>>60727633
>>60727744
Just because Vietnam is going up doesn't the US is successful at making China go down. Chinese goods exports were at a record high in 2024. We're way past the temporary covid bump now, so there is clearly an enduring trend upward.

It's natural that some types of manufacturing is shifting from China to elsewhere because Chinese wages have been rising. Vietnam is a natural place for such off-loading because it is close to China and thus easy to integrate into Chinese supply chains.

Imo Trump's recent tariffs on countries like India and Vietnam just demonstrates that relocating manufacturing out of China just for the purpose of access to the US market is an exercise in futility. It's impossible to plan when the tariff rate on each country depends on some recent political slap fight or on suddenly announced "secondary tariffs" or on how this morning's Egg McMuffin went down. So many people will probably now think it is better to just manufacture where costs are lowest (which in many cases is China) and then just face whatever tariff rate is proclaimed for the day when selling to the US or fraudulently relabel the goods

>>60727773
Most recent data
>China's yuan-denominated exports in June rise 7.2% y/y
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-yuan-denominated-exports-june-rise-72-yy-imports-grow-23-2025-07-14/

>>60722489
This has been going of for years. Noticers noticed it a while ago. Niggercattle are only now talking about because media jews let it slip in a effort to sabotage the current right wing admin.

>>60724816
100k jobs in a country with hundreds of millions of jobs is not a lot.
>>60725114
The percentage difference is not a useful metric. If I predict I will have income of $10,000 and expenses of $9,990 then I predict a change in my net worth of +$10. If I end up having $9,998 of income and $9,997 of expenses then my true change in net worth is +$1. I'm "off by 90%" despite having a highly accurate prediction. Job creation numbers are the small difference between two approximately equal large values: created and deleted jobs.
>>60725628
You can access the historical revision number through 1980 on the BLS website. May and June's numbers are higher than the mean error but not shockingly so. We expect deviations of that size every so often because we are drawing from a random distribution. Learn basic statistics before posting about economics.
>>60727402
The percentage difference is not a meaningful metric and the revisions happened on the same schedule under Biden as they are under Trump. Your disinterest in BLS statistics is not a conspiracy. All of their methodology and results are published on the BLS website. It is an extremely transparent government organization.

>>60727590
its all good until don accuses you of troonshipping. he doesn't want china circumventing the tariff

>>60727579
vat however is economy slaughtering robbery. a whole quarter of the price is just fucking taxes to pay for useless assholes in government offices

>>60722126
I'm sure your anecdotal experience means more than the actual data

>>60721683 (OP)
Thats been the situation since '07 (some would say since '71) Bullshit economic numbers and markets still reaching ATH despite widespread economic devastation. Fundamentals really dont matter for shit when funny money can prop up the market. It wont last forever, but sure as shit the delusion will be shilled for as long as possible to prop up the markets. I'll start getting worried when oil loses relevance.

>>60727846
Just because they are clear how the stats are calculated doesn’t mean the variables going into them aren’t cooked like (((seasonal adjustments))).