This cycle is getting old.

probably etfs liquadtion cascades in the next year

Governments and central banks have demonstrated over the past 15 years that as soon as cracks begin to form in the financial system, they'll turn the moneyprinter on full speed to try to patch it up. It works with moderately high inflation until the cracks become too big and too numerous to patch up.

Hyperinflation is much more likely than a regular recession

>>60757251 (OP)
Ruh roh

>>60757260
>Hyperinflation is much more likely than a regular recession
This. They have learned a lot since the 2008 financial crisis. Same with the housing market. A lot of permanent online little wolves of wall street and redditors are expecing a crash. Sorry, but not gonna happen. There's an endless supply of Latin Americans and Indians. And they just have to let them in. Number must go up.

>>60757260
>Hyperinflation is much more likely than a regular recession
I dunno, I think the Fed is pretty aware of how bad inflation could get. It could be better to pop the AI bubble instead: blame it on NVDA and China collaboration, that they both basically grifted the entire US stock market, maybe throw in a couple of US investment banks to blame as well (for all of the derivatives action) and then you can erase all the inflated values that went into the stock market during Biden's term while escaping blame for having printed it.

likely catalysts:
.China making a big public deal about cancelling their H20 orders with NVDA on Monday or Tuesday before the upcoming earnings report, citing security concerns.
. Intel CEO (or allied media) essentially blowing the whistle on NVDA's shady dealings with Chinese chip smuggling in an attempt to deflect from Trump attacking him recently over his own dealings with China (next week?).
. Trump semiconductor tariffs being (finally) released (next week?) which put a company-by-company tariff on semiconductors proportional to the parts used in them being sourced from this-or-that country.

any of these could provide the shock that we need to kick off the recession, avoid US being blamed too much, and set the stage for kinetic with China.

>>60757260
What if they want it to crack?

>>60757362
Why would they? Hyperinflation solves the biggest problem of all by inflating away their rapidly growing and unservicable debt. They’re making the best of a very bad situation

>>60757377
How are people going to pay for their groceries?
Is very bad already, what if things start to cost 2x or 3x? People would be starving.

>>60757377
>inflating away their rapidly growing and unservicable debt
...war with China is the other way to get rid of their debt. Has the added benefit of being able to do away with the in-country illegal aliens using the military as well.

>>60757290
Based take.

>>60757406
Poverty would rise on par with a regular recession, but most people wouldn't starve. People and businesses would adapt quickly and use other currencies as temporary safe havens.

Just look at how life for ordinary people was in Argentina during their hyperinflationary period. If it were to happen in US/EU, the governments would already have a plan B currency in place to replace the old one, so the transition period from hyperinflation to new currency would probably be like a year at most. Meanwhile the Argentinians have had hyperinflation for like 7 years. Turkey has also had like 70-80% annual inflation for a few years and people adapt quickly by using other currencies than the local one

>>60757251 (OP)
We're currently at 1929-era (not really applicable anymore) and post-covid mania (applicable). So let's say 9 months if we don't go into internet bubble era mania. 2 years maybe if we if we enter internet bubble mania again, but you REALLY don't want to see the cooldown that comes with it.

>>60757406
Study Turkey. It recently went through 90% inflation after Erdogan took over its central bank, and inflation is still double digits in a way that wouldn't be acceptable, yet the people still live, it seems, and the country still exist.

>>60757500
>yet the people still live, it seems
the use Euros and USD.
USD is global reserve.
What are americans gonna use, EUR?
and no, cryptocurrency is not gonna be used: USD is what pays the workers who maintain the electrical and telecom grid that allow crypto to exist.
It's stupid to point at argentina and turkey for an indication of how hyperinflation would go down in USA, these are little tiny shit countries, America is a big big poop, who would americans leech off of? German tourists?

>>60757526
The Turks and Argentinians use a lot of stablecoins both for savings and daily spending. Super easy with apps on their phone.

If it were to happen in the west, it would only take a couple of weeks for large corpos like Circle, Tether or even big banks with access to gold reserves to create a new gold-backed stablecoin that westerners could use temporarily as a stable alternative until their own governments created their new currencies backed by other things besides air and lost trust

>>60757594
dude you can't pay for the grid using crypto. you have to give people real things in order for them to maintain the real things which crypto pretends doesn't exist.
in america, the real things are the military and the infrastructure, among others. You can't pay either of them in crypto.
And all of these stablecoins they use in Turkei and Argentina ultimately get converted into either local fiat or USD, so it boils down to the same thing anyway.
Basically, proposing a hyperinflation scenario that tries to use crypto is just saying that a new class of middlemanning leeches is being created...you can only do that so many times before people figure out they can just kill them. It won't work in america, the average IQ is too high.
and yes turkei's is "supposedly" 99.1, but anyone who's been there knows that's bullshit, they are dumb as shit

I hope it takes a long time to arrive. After all, I can still squeeze my dogs and my shido, I don't want this to end until I can at least buy myself a fucking car

>>60757362
that makes no sense
they can "save everyone" and then leave the bill for the next sucker in line

>>60757632
>You can't pay either of them in crypto.
you can pay anyone with anything

Warren Buffett always talks about how patience is the most important thing.

Eventually investors will do something stupid and it will open up an opportunity.

>>60757251 (OP)
end of septembear

>>60757251 (OP)
I just feel uncomfortable, usually this doesn't last long, and I don't know what it really means
Even if I only have memes and my useless bag, I don't even know what the best move is in these situations

>>60760055
You can pay with virgopay.