Thread 60776709

if July inflation drops = Fed might cut rates in September to help economy.
if July inflation stays high or goes up = Fed gonna keep rates or even raise them, no cuts soon.

didn't trumpa just put his guy on the statistics

>>60776718
yes, as long the guy that Trump nominated does as he's told it's 100% guaranteed that we will have cut rates in September, but the problem is that everyone already expects that to happen so it may be priced in

>>60776718
Nominated, not yet confirmed by congress. Yes the GOP will just rubber stamp it but it will still take time.

>>60776795
ah, so it's probably over then?

>>60776817
New guy isn't rigging the statistics yet but give it time and he likely will.

>>60776709 (OP)
>if July inflation stays high
As it stands with current inflation, fedwatch says we got more than a 80 percent chance of one in september. And it's not like anybody is expecting inflation to go down. Soo......

>>60776709 (OP)
Markets are front running rate cuts for next year. Big institutions don't care about September.
The question is whether inflation runs out of control which could mess up Trump's rate cut plans.
However, anything below 3% isn't enough to make institutions and hedge funds go risk off or panic since this spike in inflation was expected.

>>60776746
Fucking kek. 0.1 incoming

>>60776881
Inflation is a lagging indicator. CPI measures inflation now relative to inflation from a whole year back. Inflation has been persistent at 3% this year because Biden printed $1.2T in 2024 in a bid to buy the presidency with a stimulated economy. Now Trump gets to ride low inflation numbers until his own spending shows in the CPI numbers next year.
If he plays his cards good he can win the midterms before shit hits the fan and the bear market affects normal americans.

>>60776709 (OP)
If it's lower or stable they'll cut. Only higher would make them stay give the enormous jobs downgrading that occurred.

>>60777209
>If it's lower or stable they'll cut.
i hope so

i want to hold hands with pam

>>60776718
Yes and contrary to the tds impulse, he will post accurate stats with smaller average revisions.

I predict it will be 0.1 above forecast.

Screenshit this.

>>60776709 (OP)
time for TOO SLOW POWELL to step aside and resign from his position as it is FAR too late now to lower rates. his MORONIC incompetence has been the cause of the 38 TRILLION in debt to blow out under "SCHMOE" Biden's administration. rates should be multiple percentage points LOWER than they are currently and with lower rates the People of the great USA would be able to afford many homes and drive the economy like never before! THANKFULLY we have BILLIONS of income being generated from our wonderful tariffs. no longer will the rest of the world take advantage of our generosity. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

The USD is a ponzi. Trump just fired the BLS head because accurate inflation data will make US debt interest payments impossible. This isn't rocket science.

Bullshit will bring ups and downs, but BTC will be 1M in less than three years, no matter what today's numbers bring.

>>60776709 (OP)
>Everything turning green an hour ahead of market open
Hmmm.

>>60776709 (OP)
2 minutes

>0.0% food inflation
>-0.1% electricity inflation
these niggers are smoking crack. groceries are still going up and half of the country is getting obliterated by PJM price hikes.

>>60777424
0.1 below forecast.
Now what, bear troon?

> 10% MoM

wtf sell

>>60777566
They can manipulate the data however they want to get a politically motivated result. If Trump wants rate cuts then by golly the CPI will justify it.

>>60777566
Ground beef is almost 10 dollars a pound where i live
These numbers are so cooked lol

>>60777566
Now you know why Trump pushed DOGE so hard, only to drop Musk like a bad habit after he was done gutting goverment agencies.

>News headline implies inflation is higher than expected
>It's lower than expected
Why do they do this?

>>60776718
The government started fucking with CPI data already back in April, by selectively cutting resources from data collection and replacing it with imputation i.e. guesswork

>>60777811
That main reason was probably to misdirect/reduce the guilt of fiscal conservatives over the debt being increased. "big but vague spending cut promise" is a known tactic going back to Reagan

>>60777566
You idiots clearly haven't figured out how inflation is calculated yet, this is pretty fun to watch/read. It's going to be some lovely 4 years watching leftwing mongoloids sperging because they don't know why data isn't conforming to their world views and limited knowledge lmao

>>60776709 (OP)
Haha inflation trend remains over the fed's 2% target despite their best efforts. Stagflation is here to stay.