Thread 60826916

DEBOONK the efficient market hypothesis and the random walk hypothesis.

>>60826916 (OP)
whats the random walk hypothesis

>>60826920
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk

>>60826933
i know what a random walk is

>>60826920
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk_hypothesis

>>60826916 (OP)
>random walk
Well if you mean a Wiener process with possibly some drift, that includes pretty much everything. So sure.

>efficient markets
Market crashes and booms pretty much reflect inefficient markets (wrong, too late) rather than new information (info generally is not new).

I'd say being early (HFT), insider information and control of markets matter way more.

>>60826938
>Whether financial data can be considered a random walk is a venerable and challenging question.
Kek who wrote this?
LMAO

>>60826916 (OP)
"Market efficiency" is an assumption as "free trade is the best" and "socialism works".

Genesis 1-1 to Revelation 22-21

>EMH
Simple: the market is largely decided by large holding companies managing pensions (Vanguard, Blackrock, etc) and the people making the calls on buying and selling are typically fat boomers who don't know shit. The next largest segment is degenerate gamblers like Goldman Sachs and hedge funds, who abuse insider info and market manipulation.
There's too much information for market participants to be even close to efficient. The hypothesis assumes all actors have perfect information at all times, which just isn't true. There's always some dumbass with a large leveraged position who's high or passed out when news hits, wakes up, and has to eat a big loss. There's often some wackjob with better analysis and an autistic ability to ignore losses in the short term who eventually profits big (Burry, Buffett, me).
>random walk
To some extent moment to moment movements can look like a random walk but they aren't, they're driven by rational actors acting on imperfect information. Unironically read Fooled by Randomness.

>>60826916 (OP)
The existence of the Federal Reserve

>>60826916 (OP)
the thing about memecoin on dextools is that once you make it, the dopamine never hits the same. you start chasing ghosts, but nothing feels like that first moon mission

>>60826916 (OP)
I still believe in the bull market every three years
in the last one, I almost made it with memecoins, and now things like note.fun are giving me enough cash to stay away from ATMs for a couple of months, the best strategy is still to wait

>>60826916 (OP)
That's just a minigame within the larger game.