Thread 60831982

I don't understand this. So Powell says that there is increased risk in unemployment but also increased risk in inflation.
Well if he starts lowering rates, wouldn't that raise inflation risks? So you may be helping unemployment by lowering rates, but aren't you then increasing inflation risks? (which can end up in unemployment because costs for manufacturers are raised...)

So what the fuck does this mean? Aren't cutting into weakness typically bearish? That is what happened in 2001 and 2008 last time I checked. So how does this all fit in? It cannot be as simple as rate cuts = just moon brooo. The fuck.

>>60831982 (OP)
Stagflation on the horizon. Inflation gets worse, employment gets worse.

Rate cuts should theoretically mean stocks start a bull market, historically it means tho that we start a bear market

>>60831990
And isn't that bearish? so why are gigapumping then? Quick kneejerk reaction? so for how long do we have to hold and dump before the dump?

>>60832014
But if you are cutting because unemployment is kicking in then it means you are cutting into a shitty economy that is why the market crashes on rate cuts. So Powell is admiting unemployment going up and inflation going up, so he chooses to try to help unemployment but ignore inflation.. so we will see what happens. Too many moving parts so I don't fucking know.

Just read his full speech you retarded nigger, he goes through his reasoning for everything in there.
New normal means the baseline for metrics are shifted even if the absolute value is changing

>>60832084
If there's still inflation than prices will still be going up, so while the economy may be getting worse, it would have to get bad enough to start bring prices down. At least this would be my interpretation. I think they're kind of stuck in a tough place and trying to avoid a policy error. Cut and inflation continues to rise, don't cut and employment continues to decline.

>>60831982 (OP)
>I don't understand this. So Powell says that there is increased risk in unemployment but also increased risk in inflation.
therein lies the rub: there's high risk of both mass unemployment and hyperinflation
what this means is: the fed's tools no longer work
i.e. we're fucked
there's no way out of this, and this situation has been predicted DECADES ago
the economy is running on fumes right now but it won't last

I think you're still under the impression that they're supposed to be doing all they can to help.
What they actually do is make things worse and tell you it's good and nobody does anything about it because what are you gonna do? Martyr yourself?
It's not some sick evil on purpose thing they're doing for twisted pleasure, they just know they can get away with lying and saying it's good so they get to keep their jobs at playing some kind of money god.

>>60832878
what exactly do you want them to do? do you even know? lol

They can take everything from you in the cruel market
But they cannot take your soul

>>60831982 (OP)
Jobs and inflation are both bad.
You have no good options at this point.

First, you can do nothing. Maybe the situation will fix itself (lol). But even though things will get worse at least you don't risk accelerating it, or making the wrong decision.
Second, you can rip off the band-aid and do QT right away. You're sacrificing jobs, and slowing the economy, but keeping inflation in check. Bad at first, but potentially healthier in the long run.
Third, you can rev up the money printers, do QE, fuck inflation but save jobs. Maybe you get enough growth to fix everything, but if you don't, you are giga fucked and end up in the same situation but worse.

Anyways, in the 70's the Fed chose option 3. Guess how that turned out.

>>60831982 (OP)
Yes, this is the contradiction of the Fed's "dual mandate".

>>60831982 (OP)
>So what the fuck does this mean?
It means investors have little incentive to open new businesses if they can make money in the markets. So inflation is a result of an overheated market, where people who made money in the markets drove costs higher for houses, cars, and other goods.

Unemployment now is low, but basically they are slaves. Even higher incomes can't achieve financial independence without either starting a business or investment lots of money in the markets. Again we are back to not worth starting a business. So here is the cycle.

>>60831982 (OP)
Once the federal cuts rates it increases inflation by x2 within a couple years. Yes this is the endgame and they were holding off on timing it for a major war. That way American cattle don't notice it all at once and they can blame it on war once they do notice it. Cutting rates is only temporarily good for the stock market but eventually there will be massive bubbles bursting especially in Tech and Real Estate. The Commodities market is also in a major bubble but that will go last and only gold and silver will retain wealth. And don't get me started on crypto. That is going to drop so much it's ridiculous. But why for so many people is this news to them?

>>60833078
no, this is not correct.

>>60832097
hyperinflation will be good for the US. Everyone with stocks/RE/crypto will be very rich and everyone without those things will be the new slave class. The US needs that.

>>60831982 (OP)
What Powell meant was that if the FOMC doesn't lower rates soon, the members of the FOMC will soon be out of a job and possibly in prison

>>60832084
Investors expect more inflation = asset prices go up

>>60833229
That's not how that works. Are you retarded? Is Zimbabwe rich? How about Turkey and Venezuela? You're clueless, kid. Go take an economics course. As the dollar devalues a millionaire will mean less and less.

>>60833280
>Go take an economics course
lmao talk about worthless advice

>dude just go rack up debt reading textbooks with old graphs before qe even existed

do you even hear yourself

>As the dollar devalues a millionaire will mean less and less.

that already happened

nobody gives worse investing advice than economists
remember all the retard tariff experts earlier this year

this is clown world nigga, everything goes up

>>60833263
This. If they don't Trump WI get someone that will and that person will bask in the glory of maybe a year of good feelings while powel and the rest will have a tarnished reputation. Powel is going to leave in 2028 and was fucked by both Trump and Biden, so he is just doing what they say instead of fighting anymore

>>60833280
Huh? Wealthy people in Turkey & Venezuela and especially Zimbabwe literally live like kings. Very comfy.

>>60831982 (OP)
>So what the fuck does this mean?
The ultimate price discovery may soon begin. The weighing of hearts and souls.

>>60832765
kys
>>60832798
>>60832843
Yeah, that has been my conclusion. How do we profit from this?

>>60832921
nice turtle pic

>It cannot be as simple as rate cuts = just moon brooo.
literally all it is. trust me brooo.
>>60832736
i hold bitcoin, AND son, AND doge, AND ethereum.

wouldn't a rate cut expectation cause inflation in itself, giving enough data for powell to say nah we cant cut

>>60833742
but if powell says nah we don't cut then unemployment goes up and they have to cut but if they cut inflation goes up but if inflation goes up people can't afford shit and expenses go up even for manufacturers so unemployment go up so wtfjfiojasjfdsuifhuisaaaaaaaaa

>>60833855
ai bubble popping
mass deportations
have you considered these two factors in your thesis?

>>60831982 (OP)
If he raises rates to control inflation he will crash the economy
If the economy weakens the inflation should go down anyway

>>60831982 (OP)
>It cannot be as simple as rate cuts = just moon brooo.
you midwits are fucking hilarious

>>60833280
you're the one that's retarded
go look up what the Cantillion effect is
you don't even understand how inflation (price raises) even works
>Go take an economics course
holy fucking irony

Same guy as the OP tweet, but this might be more relevant how to view things going forward

Why are people pretending like this is anything other than a response to orangenigger pressure. Powell will keep cuts to a minimum because he knows if he doesn't cut, he's fired and they're cutting full percentages every month.

>>60831982 (OP)
>Inflation still lower than current fed rate
>Jobs numbers stinky after all the cooked BLS data has been cut
That's all you need to understand for why we're getting a cut. People will whine and cry that Trump did it by embarrassing Powell by exposing his 2 billion dollar fed pleasure palace fuck and suck boondoggle and forcing him to do the hardhat humiliation ritual, but the real answer is that any sensible fed would cut right now due to their dual mandate.

>>60834776
A sensible fed would look at fartcoin market cap, say "you clearly have enough money in circulation" and double the rates.

>>60834792
There's literally nothing in the feds dual mandate that says anything about market caps. Sorry you sold in April after the leftypol raid here spooked you and now you're sidelined. That's literally not me or Jerome's fault, that's on you buddy.

>>60831982 (OP)
inflation can't increase the cost of goods if everyone is unemployed and can't buy said goods leading to deflation

>>60834833
Nah he has a point, sticky inflation is a 100% due to current markets.
Consumers look at their portfolio before they go out and buy shit. Fed knows this but don't really care

>>60832014
It depends *why* they are cutting. In our case, the CPI is around 2.4-2.7 annualized, the FFR is 4.25-4.5, and the labor market is weakening a bit. No reason not to cut, and in fact Trump was right to want to cut awhile ago.

>>60834339
Inflation would go down and unemployment will go up

>>60834792
facts

>>60832765
no one read the white papers in 2017 bro. this is bare minimum shit and people dont wanna do it

>>60834792
Most sensible post ITT.

>>60834792
>and double the rates.
and then the FDIC goes bankrupt and guess who's buying the bonds to finance it back up?

>>60834739
>anything other than a response
maybe because he said he would do it in January?
but goldfish memory is a bitch

>>60832097
>>60832798
But couldn't they just encourage local hiring and not renew workers on Visas to address the unemployment issue?

Why sink the economy over Rajesh?