Thread 60894916

Unironically what is the state of the United States economy?

UST demand through stablecoins and the massive efficiency increases of the 4IR are going to lock in total US victory at the most precarious moment.

>>60894916 (OP)
Music still playing

>>60894916 (OP)
It’s like a guy with $100k income, $100k a year in living expenses, $100k a year in interest on his $740k credit card debt and with virtually no assets.

>>60894916 (OP)
No one cares about paying off national debt, lol. When has a politician ever talked about paying off the debt? Doesn't happen.

We’re actually fucked if our economy doesn’t grow to outpace the GDP-to-debt. Debt is 100 percent the size of our economy, and it’ll reach 110 percent soon. It’ll be harder to borrow, and the interest payments will soon be half of what we take in annually through taxation.

The last time the debt was this high, it was WWII. We’re in a peacetime economy and we’re racking up $2 trillion dollar deficits. Between this and inflation, we’re beyond fucked. Put your money into assets. The S&P 500, gold, bitcoin, land, anything. As soon as you have a dollar, put it into an asset. The dollar is going to become the new peso.

People are catching on to how fucked we are, so they’re turning far-left or far-right because the establishment was asleep at the wheel. Expect social and economic chaos for the next decade.

>>60895095
> the establishment was asleep at the wheel
It’s intentional. You can’t tell me that full grown adults in positions of power are incapable of seeing where things are going. They just don’t care, or want it to happen.

>>60895095
>Debt is 100 percent the size of our economy, and it’ll reach 110 percent soon
its already 120 percent, anon

>>60895165
Typically, the debt the government owes to itself isn’t counted. So it’s around 100 percent.
>>60895140
It’s less malicious and more about short-termism and kicking the can down the road for someone else to handle.

>>60895095
>Debt is 100 percent the size of our economy,
who cares, we dont have to pay 100% of the debt back today, we pay the interest. Is the the interest payments 100% the size of our economy? No. Every major country is the world is sitting at about this same level. Do you have anything else to say you leddit retard that didnt come from some bullshit headline you have seen in the past decade?

>>60895414
>Every major country is the world is sitting at about this same level
wrong

>>60895425
no you are wrong, do you have any data to backup your retarded claim?

>>60895060
I've seen a couple of youtube videos claiming it would be bad to not be in debt at this point. Like it would kill the economy and jobs and shit

>>60894916 (OP)
Who cares if our debit is high. Who the fuck is going to come to collect?

>>60895492
then noone will buy either

>>60895492
>Who cares if our debit is high. Who the fuck is going to come to collect?
while i agree with the spirit of the meme, the issue will come when nobody offers more credit

>>60895492
demand for US debt will decrease which means they'll have to pay more interest on it to attract buyers. the interest expense will grow, we'll have to print more money to service the interest expense, we'll have to sell more debt to print that money, we'll have to pay more interest to attract buyers, etc.

>>60895498
Not a problem. At that point we need to get our act together, but until then debtmaxing with the largest military in the world is the same as some ghetto bitch with 9 kids declaring bankruptcy. Both untouchable.

Max out debt, to develop our military and infrastructure, then when other third world countries say "fine we'll stop lending you money" then we'll say "ok, I guess we'll stop sending trillions in international aid around the world, also all of those houses and shit that china bought, those are ours now. "

>>60895498
>the issue will come when nobody offers more credit
This.
There's a reason the price of gold is hitting new all-time highs. Nobody wants to lend the US money anymore.

Didn't trump just pay off a bunch of the debt anyways?

>>60895524
foreign countries are only one part of the debt holders
its owned by pension funds, banks etc
you have a simplistic view of the situation

>>60895461
i dont see your point. Other countries have even more debt to gdp than us? Yes this is also my point hence my accusation of the retarded comments by >>60895095
The global average is 120% even if we exclude the US its still 120%, exclude japan its 117% , again this is the entire world average.

>>60895537
>Nobody wants to lend the US money anymore.
say that again but maybe with less hyperbolic language and actual data

Once Ripple replaces SWIFT we'll have our new golden age.

>>60895552
What if we paid our debt off just to the banks and pension funds, but then debt maxed from china and russia and shit. Fucking rugpull the fuck out of the.

>>60895591
Germany has half the debt, are you blind

Sorry you stupid retard FUDD liberals, you lose again.

>>60895591
>data
Look it up yourself, its all public data

>>60895611
you pick one country out of a huge list of them, germany may be at half, but their economy is so fucked they wouldnt be able to afford it if it was higher. so again the global average is still ~120%

>>60895625
>no u
I have, im aware, and you are retarded hyperbolic rent boi. Saying NOBODY wants to buy us bonds is fucking stupid as hell. U.S. Treasuries remain the most liquid and widely held financial instrument in the world.

>>60895667
Germany overtook Japan last year
third biggest economy

>>60895676
What the fuck? What does germany even do nowadays? Is it just exporting alcohol? Germans get so fucking lucky with their bounce back economies

>>60895667
You're arguing semantics like a redditor. I used the word "nobody" to exaggerate my point.

>>60895414
Hey faglord, this was actually my job to research and discuss this so don’t tell us that sitting at Japan’s GDP-to-debt ratio in a few years is ideal. But thanks for exposing your IQ, thinking this ride will never end and that we won’t ever stagnate from totally bonkers spending habits.

>>60895667
Oh wow, you actually are retarded. You genuinely believe that people will want to hold treasuries in another decade.

>>60895685
>What does germany even do nowadays
pretty much everything I think

>>60895676
>>60895685
Germany is in decline and gdp has been contracting, comparing it to Japan thats been fucked for 30 years is cherry picking nonsense.

>>60895709
>thinking this ride will never end and that we won’t ever stagnate
2 more weeks

>>60895696
>"nobody" to exaggerate my point.
yes thats what hyperbolic means and what I accused you of, I am glad we agree you are retarded. please learn english

>>60895760
>gdp
a meme, when the currency is getting stronger
it means Germany got richer, even with a stagnating GDP

>>60895760
So you agree that foreign central banks have less demand for US bonds, you just wanted to throw an online fit over semantics like a gay redditor. Congratulations, here's your (You).

>>60895725
>another decade.
we have at least 3 decades left given current population estimates, and also generally war happens things change and demand is created. the system has always been fake and gay. Fiat money is as old as writing itself. Just because something ends doesnt mean it cant be profitable. Time and space are a hell of a drug.

>>60895760
>recession is going to hit us in a day, a week, month or year from now
>money printers at the ready to save the 401(k)s
>$3 trillion dollar deficits will become the norm
>annual interest payments will reach $1.3 trillion
>no end in sight from elected leaders who cannot even decide what toppings to get on a pizza
Surprised you haven’t suggested pic related yet. Economics must be like magic to you.

>>60895786
>people are going to suffer but it’s all fake broooo
This is all just an abstraction for you. Wait until you get kicked out of your childhood bedroom you haven’t moved out of yet.

>>60895783
language is important if I call you a fagget but then argue I was calling you a retard the whole time youd be confused and angry too.


>>60895780
>a meme, when the currency is getting stronger
>it means Germany got richer, even with a stagnating GDP

I dont understand I thought they were apart of the EU. The DXY is completely fine. sitting above its long term average. looking at euro/usd , the euro still not doing great. Long term looks like an overall decline

>>60895865
here is germany GDP in dollar terms

>>60894916 (OP)
the last leg of the hyperinflation debt cycle. it ends with
>pitchforks and torches at the federal reserve
>or a debt default
>or a new currency regime

>>60895809
>Economics must be like magic to you.
it kinda is, its all just a confidence game. Im just so tired of hearing the collapse is coming and it never does. Yal keep betting on the apocalypse lets see how that works out.

>>60895492
americans are fucking retards holy shit

>>60895894
but isnt their purchasing power gdp worse and puts them behind Russia. which is basically a cpi calculation which who the fuck knows if that is right. tho anything german made is always more expensive but also will last forever if maintained correctly. getting me hard for germany, whats the german play here do I just buy the DAX 40

>>60895897
>the last leg of the hyperinflation debt cycle. it ends with
ya but have we ever in recorded history had a global currency that went tits up? thats like bronze age collapse level of fucked up.

>>60895492
See how fast the US sinks when the USD stops being used for world trade and for buying oil.

>>60895594
I'm curious, i thought ripple was to make shit cheaper, wouldnt that mean less fees overall

>>60895938
kind of, e.g. FDR taking away the gold standard; Nixon taking away the dollar's gold backing; european countries ditching sovereign currencies for the euro; the soviet ruble; the german papiermark.

severe inflation basically translates into much higher bond yields that continue to stack. you don't want to hold government debt in such a situation. it's best to hold commodities.

>>60895901
I’m not a bear, I’m up to my eyeballs in VOO and bitcoin, but to not believe that some huge downturn is coming is some ant and the grasshopper type shit. We’re not talking a collapse, we’re talking stagnation. You know what comes from that? Increased polarization. Crime. Degeneracy. High unemployment. Inflation. All of these really bad things that you almost wish for the collapse and wanting to be a concubine for the local warlord who used to be the Popeye’s daytime shift manager because it’s better to see the system get erased than deteriorate into entropy.

>>60895938
germany could also benefit from the latest mercosur free trade deal with south america
but I dont which individual stock

>>60895940
this would fuck the people who hold usd debt so hard. which would be china. If you loan me tons of dollars the last thing you want to do is devalue my currency. so you can then be paid back in worthless currency? No you cant just say pay me in brazilian russian indian china spain trash coin. China can not retroactively ask to be paid in different currency on current debt. how would this play out exactly in your head?

>>60895964
>huge downturn is coming
nothing is a hedge against that, well cash is because as we have seen time and time again when shit crashes everything crashes because of lack of liquidity. You could then buy the dip of anything. BTC crashes, gold crashes, every god damn thing crashes because the speculative risk implied in all these assets gets vaporized. The only way you dont lose money is you bought all your gold or btc when it was cheap . You lose your 5 years of gains but at least you break some what even. Oil went negative, gold crashed, btc, crashed, the only thing that was up in march 2020 was the VIX. Whats your plan, to time the market just before the crash and sell then buy it again? From what you are saying it sounds like you should sell right now and buy the dip thats coming.

>>60896022
I know better than to time a dip. I’m buying, and then when shit crashes I’m buying more. I’m more concerned about everyone else, because even if they’re dumb they shouldn’t suffer because our leaders cannot handle basic accounting principles.

>>60895938
>purchasing power gdp
purchasing power is an incredibly gay vanity metric that was psyopped* in and needs to be shown the door
as a per capita measure it kind of explains what kind of quality of life you might enjoy as an expat
when you multiply this by population size you get a cuckoo for cocoa puffs measure because the international economy doesn't work like this....PPP dollars can't buy and don't make iPhones......the real measure is.....wait for it.......nominal gdp
it you de-gayify the measure you basically get "population" and yeah russia is 75% larger than DE which means they are a threat with rifles
*possibly to exaggerate China, possibly to make 3rd world feel better

The USD "IS" the debt. A dollar is created out of a digital ledger going "poof, there's a new dollar." There's no difference. It's just about who holds the receipt. When debt is created, there is interest owed on the debt. The interest is the danger on both sides. You need interest rates high enough that banks and other nations will want to invest in the dollar, but low enough that it still allows for economic growth. Right now the fed is stuck between the walls closing in on both sides. They need to lower rates to stop unemployment from ramping up and they need to raise rates to fight inflation at the same time. The options are getting increasingly worse on both sides. Eventually the fed will give in and be forced to cut because of the political outcry and inflation will just run fucking rampant again.

>>60896046
>purchasing power is an incredibly gay vanity metric that was psyopped* in and needs to be shown the door
agreed

>>60896032
so whats the top then? I was thinking ~1k SPY by summer 2026-2027 is what my model I started on 5 years ago and my meme lines go all the way back to the 1993. If things get as bad as you say they are, they can just take your money out of the bank or limit how much you withdraw. BTC not safe unless you are in custody of it. Cash not even really that safe if they suddenly say anyone paying for stuff in large sums of cash is a terrorist pedophile. Gold, same deal they claim its illegal to hold you must turn in for your neet bux. Democracy has led to laws constantly changing to favor whomever has the most lobbying power. Being a criminal is becoming the only way to survive.

>>60896063
rates do not determine any of this, they are symptom of the economy. I invent anti gravity ai sexbots made out of sand and dog labor. You are gonna loan me money, im gonna hire people , im gonna make a fuck ton of money. The fuckery that happens with money is downstream of the economy, it isnt the economy in of itself. ya you can do dumbshit with money to fuck up the economy, but why would you if the economy is good. No you fuck up the money once the economy is fucked. I generally dont go into debt when I make a lot of money. Sure its possible but not likely.

>>60896098
Larger companies are generally looking forward multiple quarters, borrow big, and then fund their operations on the assumption of projections that they'll hopefully outperform tomorrow's numbers with today's loan.

>>60896084
The top? I called five of the last two recessions. Fuck knows. Unless you keep a cold wallet, gold in your closet and cash in your mattress, then anything is fair game. If the government seizes my bitcoin like they did with gold, I can’t do much because it’s in my Roth.

>>60896164
>The top?
ya i know you are all about being a bottom

>>60894916 (OP)
>31
it's at 37T as hopefully others pointed out already.

The dollar is not money. It is monopoly money. The average somali will be orders of magnitude richer than the average american in a couple weeks

>>60894916 (OP)
It's really simple and classic budgeting:

Spend less, save more. Anyone telling you otherwise is grifting and should be ignored.

>>60894916 (OP)
it's doing really well
deficient spending works and is good economic policy :)
usa is the only country in the world where it works btw

>>60895060
What do you suppose happens when interest on the debt alone exceeds all revenue? That's coning in fast.

>>60896063
>You need interest rates high enough that banks and other nations will want to invest in the dollar, but low enough that it still allows for economic growth
no
the only place where interest rates "need" to be at is the market rate which would likely be in the double digits
goyim will never accept this because "muh usury" (as if anyone fucking forces them to borrow) or other pro intervention pseudo-scientific frameworks that currently dominate economics, so constant inflation is the price of not being able to come to terms with reality

>>60896949
>What do you suppose happens when interest on the debt alone exceeds all revenue?
wtf you smoking, we've been here before it was called the 80s then by some kind of jew magic rates dropped and economy was amazing. I was born in 80s and took me until now to have a decent job and income to even be able to invest without gambling. So of course it would all start to collapse now.

>>60895938

Linegoupmetal

>>60894916 (OP)
This could be a good thing to capitalize on. The GDP has to go up or the dollar dies at this level of debt (~120% of gdp). That's why there is such an obsession about GDP growth. More GDP= more taxes= more debt ceiling. I think the strat is to pump the economy with a big crypto run but maybe that is just hopium.

Im hoping rate cuts -> ETF approvals -> holiday spending drive the next big wave here.

>>60895060
Republicans pretend to care about debt when the Democrats are in power.

>>60894916 (OP)
Absolutely fucked and taking everyone down with it.
The reason for all the bad decisions in Europe, the Anglosphere and possibly China is to keep America propped up as the global hegemon. It started in the early 2000's with global banks buying toxic American debt which led to the GFC. Then they engineered COVID-19 and used it to shut down the entire global economy and control who was and wasn't allowed to benefit from the shutdown. Then they began the war in Ukraine and started funneling billions to the American MIC.
America is a zombie empire, completely leaderless and just a bunch of parasites fighting over the corpse. That's why Israel are doing what they're doing, they see their golem dying and are trying to get as much as they can as fast as they can before the corpse is completely cold.

>>60895414
Retards like you are the reason the social contract has broke down.

>>60896022
>well cash is because as we have seen time and time again when shit crashes everything crashes..
Say for instance that gold didn't crash, or Japanese stocks didn't crash, what would you do if the DOW goes -30%? -50%? -70%? Sell your fucking things to buy the firesale, rivers of blood in the street and you are staying on the sideline with your hedge??
In big market crashes everything that can be sold, will be sold, people will raise cash out of opportunity or necessity. Cash is the only real protection, that is what everyone is trying to get, nothing else is protection.

>>60894916 (OP)
best economy on earth