Thread 61066267

Financially speaking, is this a prudent decision by America? Risking it all on Silicon valley pump and dump scammers?

>>61066267 (OP)
It's safe until Russia gets tired of dragging boat anchors across European undersea fiber cables

>>61066267 (OP)
You say this as if every other country isn't doing the same bet. If we're right then we're fucking rich. Is were wrong then so is Europe and so is China and we're still rich.

>>61066267 (OP)
What else is there for America to bet on? Manufacturing? lol

>>61066267 (OP)
Perhaps it is. As another anon mentioned there is nothing else to bet on. It's also an arms race. It doesn't matter if it doesn't end up doing anything, if people use it and America doesn't own it then we are in trouble.

AI was a "bet" in 2020
now we literally have AGI

>>61066348
artificial general inceldom

>>61066319
>It's also an arms race.
>It doesn't matter if it doesn't end up doing anything
lol
lmao even

>>61066444
It doesn't.
>America China and Europe all going balls deep on AI
>If AI turns out not to be a thing then they all only end up with insanely powerful computational ability that is still traditionally useful
>If they're right then they're insanely wealthy
There's literally no downside to funding this and infinite upside if you're right. Combine that China is always 3 months late to the party you can assume America will get AGI first if it's possible.

>>61066348
>now we literally have AGI
No we don't.

This shit is how humanity will end. We'll get chatbots convincing enough that they'll "copy their consciousness" over to them, and be fooled by the convincing imitation. All the actual humans will die off, replaced by super transhuman automatons that don't actually experience anything. But you'll be called a bigot if you say they're soulless machines.

>>61066488
>If AI turns out not to be a thing then they all only end up with insanely powerful computational ability that is still traditionally useful
lol
lmao even

>>61066488
you cant eat computers
its a giant waste of money and energy

>>61066514
>you cant eat computers
skill issue

>>61066488

Computational power halves very, very quickly. All this build up is doing a good job of funding other nation's and their companies while also being useless for us if AI doesn't work out. What if AI companies are then bought out by the government because they become "too big to fail"? Now the government has seemingly endless computers for monitoring all citizen's activities. I don't believe AI will fail in that regard, but it is possible. However, what of AI leads anyone to believe we'll be " more free"? Short of having AI defense drones swarming around my head, I fail to see what good it really does for the individual's liberty.

>>61066267 (OP)
Imagine being the idiot that implements the first nation wide multi-agentic AI for governments when hallucination is a feature

>>61066534
>However, what of AI leads anyone to believe we'll be " more free"? Short of having AI defense drones swarming around my head, I fail to see what good it really does for the individual's liberty.
Using AI as a tool is going to be necessary for sorting out all the bad information (in large part created by other AIs). Finding some way to fight back against fake and manipulated discourse, or at least check what's being posted, is the only way individuals can have actual freedom because we need a way to operate and have actual free discourse based on real information in this environment. It's going to be an endless arms race.

>>61066612
...or you can just turn the screen off. ever consider that?

>>61066612
Ah yes, the genius strategy. We'll fund the problem, then we'll keep funding it even more in hopes of solving it.

>>61066672
>>61066696
You can't turn it off for everybody. Genie isn't going back in the bottle. The problem is here, and if we don't fund it, other people will fund it to be used against us.

>>61066717
there isn't a "problem". everything always cycles back to some apocalyptic narrative with you retards. this is how you market your worthless bullshit. now boomers are leveraged ballsdeep and they will never admit they were wrong, they will just keep printing more money to prop up the bubble until the financial system implodes. they got conned (again) by techbros

>>61066717
But what is it exactly "you" are funding?
Super human AGI? or slightly better LLM without a functional business model.
~2 years ago it seemed like LLM's would just scale with data and more compute, the pathway to AGI and beyond was pretty obvious. This does not look like it is the case anymore, there is a significant diminishing return on the compute and there also is a strong limit on available data (and the quality of AI generated data is not an option at the moment).

>>61066267 (OP)
AI and robotics is the future.

I didn't read this thread, but I can see some dumbos complaining about AI. You will eventually be replaced by a compliant humanoid. Thank you.

>>61066717
>>61066844
Imagine if it was decided in the 50s that computer was the future and they would invest massively in this new technology. So they spend ~5-7% of GDP every year constructing ENIAC like machines throughout the US.
After 5 year all of them effectively worthless, as the new computers where so much better (and cheaper). You could buy a desktop computer in the 60s that had x1000 the computational power of ENIAC, there where 100 times cheaper.

after working with a few AI start ups i can conclude that the AI bubble is worse than you think

90% of the companies are grifters that work entirely on marketing

Everything is fine, we still have +9~10% to go. After that, I just don't know. Brace for impact, I guess.
And maybe read based Ed Zitron's newsletter.

>>61066939
yes

>>61066514
>Oh no! We accidentally created powerful super computers and overhauled our electrical grid to support it single handedly ushering in a nuclear power revolution

>>61066986
and doing what with it?

>>61066896
We are approaching the limit of the amount of computational power you can squeeze out of atoms and molecules.
Maybe someone will come up with a fancy new architecture for neural networks, but it's not likely that we're going to radically improve on chip technology itself soon. Quantum computing has a chance I guess.

>>61066896
Uh, a top of the line Nvidia GPU can run the latest games maxed out for at least 2 years. Are you suggesting a god like ai won't exist by then?

>>61066986
>the nuclear power revolution was real in my mind

>>61066997
>What would we do with massive computational power and an overhauled electrical grid to power it all
Fucking midwit

>>61067035
two more weeks, as soon as you can find some profitable AI business, I guess

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85odClwSEiI

>>61067043
AI doesn't need to be profitable. Just desirable. See ride share and all the other bullshit that fuel the economy. This is a race of attrition to see who can last long enough to form a monopoly.

Apple, fucking Apple out of all companies, the one that has "how to print money from normies by repackaging some shit someone else already invented" hardcoded in its DNA, couldn't find a way to make AI profitable.
Let that sink ion for a minute.

>>61067453
source?

>>61067453
It doesn't need to be profitable. Look up loss leader.

>>61067406
>>61067502
>loss leader means you stay unprofitable forever
Are you fucking retarded?

>>61066534
AI for me has been a very good way of consolidating information that i now don't have to waste time digging for. i still retain everything i learn from it through repetition of use, but now i don't have to go search some retarded fucking google results or dig through poorly organized government websites, and it can point me directly to the source. this has been a huge help for me in also getting a promotion, raise, and freeing up my time to actually create solutions for my company instead of just trudge through doing menial daily work.

>>61066267 (OP)
it's not. the technology for LLMs has hit its limit. also, the CHINESE are better at it than americans. deepseek taught western companies a lesson on how to architect and implement LLMs.

>>61066939
yes but you aren't the real target demo they are looking for, they will be integrated into the bigger corps first, it's not viable for small businesses to have to pay token subs and have to most likely hire a team to set it up and train the staff on it and then be a nightmare of bugs and usage infractions and not actually bring anything of value, they want to integrate the big boys to be reliant on it like they would be regular office IT and print, while they tinker with things like pilfering the companies data and artificially increasing token usage to milk the companies DRY

>>61066267 (OP)
It’s absolute lunacy.

>>61067661
It's forever if it hasn't happened yet. You're broke for a reason.

>>61067785
This right here. I use AI at work as a software engineer. You can't point AI at the repo and say "do this ticket good luck". It's gonna output bullshit. But it can find the component I'm looking for out of the thousand of files. It can implement the single function I ask it for. It can do that multiple times. It can take what I've committed to the branch and write tests for it. It can run the linting command on all of the files I've committed. All of this means my productivity is probably 10x what it would be without. So maybe no company has found a way to make profit using a faggy AI wrapper bot but if you remove the efficiency gains from AI those companies would fall far behind the companies that have it.
>Nobody has found a way to make air profitable so we shouldn't have it

>>61069464
>this right here
>makes highly exaggerated claims unrelated to what poster said

holy SHIt bro the AI runs a linter for you? thats crazyyyyyyyyyy. how many years until you think we achieve AGP?

>>61069473
>Highly exaggerated
>It's not that impressive bro
Pick one. That's literally my daily routine.
>Grab a ticket
>Go to the repo
>"Where does this route render"
>"Make this change to the component"
>Repeat until my feature works
>"Ok write tests for the files you changes"
>"Ok run the linter on everything"
Yes it's not that big brained but it turns a ticket that's normally a 5 pointer until a 3 or a 2. That's velocity that the company relies on because our competition is doing that and much more. So no, they're not "profiting from AI" but taking it away won't make line go up.

>>61069464
>>61067785
If AI is that helpful for you it means you have a lazy-girl menial job or perhaps your entire daily routine is menial. If you do any kind of serious computational or creative work then it's useless. I tried to use it to for my daily calorie macros spreadsheet and it's basically unworkable. AI is a glorified tool to move words around in an email or your shitty CV that you send to apply to min wage jobs.

>>61066267 (OP)
i wonder how good ai is at darpa. maybe they have major advancements they're just sitting on. maybe not.

>>61069523
yeah that doesnt sound like 10x productivity and it doesnt factor in how much you are degrading the codebase with tech debt. the solutions AI will give to very simple problems are ridiculously convoluted most of the time.

>>61066296
No one excepr mutts have invested trillions into NVIDIA data centers for AI. 40% of the SP500 has invested trillions on AI while that number is much lower in Europe and China

>>61066488
>Combine that China is always 3 months late
Which is why Deepseek tanked the entire SP500

>>61069579
Software engineer at a Fortune top 50 that everyone has heard of and loves to hate. They pay me enough that I can assume it's not as easy as you wish.
You failed to create a macro tracking spreadsheet with AI because you don't understand the problem well enough to break it down into chunks the ai can handle without shitting the bed.

>>61069620
The code base is like 40 years old. I'm improving the quality unironically. Real work isn't your jerk off clean code pipe dream your favorite YouTuber talks about. We've got decades of "hey leadership needs this project released by Tuesday" shortcut solutions that just became the permanent foundation of literally an entire business unit held up by thousands of tests nobody understands anymore.
So going in with AI and saying rip this shit out and start fresh maintaining the same functionality, is actually a huge improvement over what used to be there. But like I told the other anon, you need to fundamentally understand the problem so you can break it into steps the AI can actually manage in the context window.

What will happen to all these light capex companies that investors used to masturbate to (Facebook, Google or Microsoft) that have gone balls deep into a business that is heavy on CAPEX with rapidly depreciating assets?
If AI is not a banger they would have just wiped out combined trillions of investor money into nothing.

>>61069822
Objectively false. Like 60% is foreign owned. They're a public company. You don't need to make shit up, Rakesh.

>>61066296
Europe is in the venture capital mindset of "lets throw some play money on random ai projects", not all in on nvidia. If scam altman fails to deliver the trillions he promised, you are going back to 2008.

>>61069822
i work in energy and there are billions going into data centres in the uk
they have their own mini power stations attached to them

>>61069831
Line has been up all year with a tiny blip on the deep seek release before they realized it was nothing and then it went up again. If you weren't braindead you could have made big money just doubling down on American stocks.

>>61069915
And the US is 20% of the world economy and mutt exposure to securities is 4 orders of magnitude larger than Europeans and around 15 times larger than chinks

>>61069929
Europe is a stagnant continent getting by on free rides. Enjoy your austerity and retirement at 90.

>>61069974
Because we're rich and print the world reserve currency. You say these statistics like they're scary and not a self own.

>>61069961
I never sold, I just have a stop loss because all of this will inevitably pop if the progress remains stagnant which it has for at least a year

>>61069983
>Because we're rich
The savings rate of Americans is literally 2%. Mutts are miserably poor, they are just forced by the goverment to pump jewish bags for their (((retirement)))

>>61069986
>Stop loss
>Purposely getting fucked by semitic trickery
Ok anon. I mean I wouldn't force myself to sell the bottom but you're a free man. The way I see it, America prints the world's reserve currency. If we go to zero we're taking the rest of these counts cunts with us. Bricks is dead in the water, the Europe is literally just backed by American reserves and gibs, China doesn't let the yuan circulate and purposely pegs it to the dollar. You can't escape it so just ride the clown wave. You all see the dollar clown show and get blackpilled. I see it and realize there's no other option but up in the rigged game.

>>61070002
My savings rate is like 50%. I wasn't talking about normies. The country America is rich. Just like the country China is rich. The average Chinese citizen lives on like $200 a month in a v bug pod but the country as a whole is rich.

>>61070043
How is America rich, if
>>61069915
A significant amount of US assets are foreign owned

>>61070034
>I see it and realize there's no other option
All banks are hoarding gold and the money that chinks used to pump into the US (real, state, farming and stocks) is going straight into gold and their own manufacturing capabilities while the Chinese central bank dedollarizes.
We are closer to chink total supremacy than anything else while America washes off its wealth into vacuous spending and grifting.

>>61066267 (OP)
>the probability weighted sentence constructor will reach AGI
>just 2 more weeks
>and $2 trillion more funding

>>61070043
>. I wasn't talking about normies
The savings rate is literally an average. It is income-expenses-taxes. Even when you add the billionaires into the equation the numbers look atrocious and the scheme doesn't pop because foreign baggies take the bag as you have pointed out which is why the US NIIP looks atrocious and US assets have a huge share of foreign ownership

>>61070073
>Country A B and C collectively invest in American company X
>This gives them voting right and possibly a board seat if they own enough interest
>American company X gets a N billion dollars in investment money they can spend on producing value
>Country A B and C get slips of paper that say they own shares in company X
>If they want to sell those shares they must find a new buyer, company X does not give them the money back
Why do I need to explain the stock market on the business board?

>>61070092
You would expect that MBA holders and finance bros would know the concept of diminishing returns

>>61070081
>Dedollarize
>Yuan still pegged 7:1 against the USD
>Implying what China does with their money supply matters in any way when you can't get yuan in any real quantity outside of China
Call me when anybody should give a single fuck. China wants to be the manufacturer of the world. That means a devalued currency is the goal. Put your savings into yuan through. It will be funny.

>>61070115
Which is why we either go up or take the world with us. You're not escaping the US by investing in some other shit hole because everyone is invested in us. May as well extract as much value from the source if you'll be fucked regardless.

>>61070154
The strategy is not to replicate the US system as chinks see the US model as vulnerable due deindustrialization.
The plan is not dedollarize quickly (they don't want to destroy their own holdings) but to do it gradually while the US destroys itself through debt,consumerism and financial speculation and pays no attention to its structural problems

>>61070169
>or take the world with us
The US has put sanctions on Russia (a shithole) and it couldn't take it down. America's relevance in the world is currently overblown and chinks do their strategic plans with a very long outlook while mutts change their policies and plans every 4 years.
China right now could destroy the US without breaking a sweat, but there is no need to push for that as the jenga tower will fall by itself

>>61070133
that doesn't actually answer the question though, you're just telling me the obvious that burgerclaps get to be wageys for the benefit of chinks.

>>61066267 (OP)
No, and AI is a silly meme anyway. It will result in 0 breakthroughs or advancements other than the further indianization of the west

>>61070209
Replacing it with what exactly? International trade needs a reserve currency because of the way shipments and orders work. Like I said they don't allow the Yuan to circulate in large quantities out of the country on purpose. They want the Yuan to have a low value on purpose because it makes their exports more attractive.
>le gold meme
You think people are gonna ship gold intentionally to confirm trades and that's not going to get stolen constantly? You think countries are gonna shift back to a gold standard and not just get invaded for all of their wealth immediately? Good luck.
>>61070181
It does. America gets foreign investment and the other countries get a piece of paper they can sell to the next baggie.
>>61070202
>Russia
LMAO scoreboard. Countries don't "collapse". We shut down trade with Cuba like 60 years ago and they're still a country. They still have an economy. They've just stagnated into irrelevancy. Same with Russia. They'll fight Ukraine forever and ever and see nothing of value from it. Snail status?

>>61066488
>If AI turns out not to be a thing then they all only end up with insanely powerful computational ability that is still traditionally useful
if AI doesn't pan out those industrial LLM GPU's are practically useless for anything else, certainly not as major revenue drivers

they are burning money

>>61070247
>Countries don't "collapse".
But they actually do (Myanmar, Somalia, Lybia or Venezuela to name a few) and the barrage of US sanctions hasn't even affected Russian manufacturing as they were able to get all their supplies from jeets and chinks.
Americans think than nominal power equates to actual power and without an industrial base the country is literally a paper tiger that couldn't even deal with a mini crisis like COVID without chinks bailing the country out

>>61070263
>GPU weren't useful until AI
I'm sorry am I not on the crypto shill board? There's tons of use for large scale data centers outside of powering AI.

>>61070273
All of those countries literally still exist. Venezuela still exists and still functions. They're a shit hole for sure but it's still a country with a shamble of an economy.

>>61070291
>literally still exist
Brother stop talking about what you have no clue about. Somalia is split into different pseudo states, Myanmar has like 7 guerrilla states controlling most of the country, Lybia is 3 different countries and in Venezuela gangs control everything and the goverment has nominal power

>>61070302
>Countries in a civil war
>Venezuela has gangs
Do you think America stopped existing during the civil war? They'll resolve their conflict and then form a new government from the winner. The major point is that sanctions aren't placed to delete a country from existence. It's to strain their budget so they can't afford to be little cunt thorns in our side. When's the last time you heard anybody talk about Iran?

>>61070329
>Do you think America stopped existing during the civil war?
In big chunks of the country sure, the difference here is that the Lybian or Somalian goverment has no strength to invade the rebelious regions which the US could do, so it is a perfect example of a country/goverment desintegrating and collapsing

>>61070345
Do you think the rebellion will eventually overtake the standing government? If/when they do so do you think they'll maintain the existing borders of the country and possibly even the name?

>>61070357
>Do you think the rebellion will eventually overtake the standing government?
No, the status quo in Somalia is a collapsed goverment and has being like that for 3 decades. Reunification or consolidation would only happen with an international peace force

>>61070376
And you don't think the guy in the oval office literally obsessed with being nominated for a Nobel peace prize would make efforts to resolve the conflict in Libya just to dunk on Obama for having caused it? Or in Somalia because they fuck with global trade?

>>61070416
How is that relevant to this discussion?

>>61070427
I'm wondering that too. We started discussing AI and then pivoted to some doomerpill shit about how America is gonna stumble two weeks from now and be replaced by countries that either have the exact same strategy as America or rely entirely on the success of America, and finally into how the sanctions on Russia were fake and gay because Russia still has an economy.
Back to the main point. AI has utility and it doesn't need to be profitable to be useful. That's it.

>>61069874
in my experience AI will turn single line changes into 20 lines of code. i mean that literally and had it happen this week twice where it creates convoluted solutions to things that are actually one line fixes.
it bloats any feature up like crazy for me. if the codebase is already shit i suppose it doesnt matter but AI code is just not maintainable in a traditional sense. yes it can be used and theres no questioning its useful

>>61070470
>AI has utility and it doesn't need to be profitable to be useful. That's it.
ok sure but who is going to bag the cost once the tech stagnates and there is no profitability path. Trillions will be wiped out from the market once that happens or OpenAI goes bankrupt

>>61070548
It is garbage vibe coding and makes coding more accessible for people who cant code. Therefore it would be useful for normies who are interested in writting some spaguetti code, seems pretty niche to me.

>>61070600
The point isn't profitability in the first order. It's second order profitability. Email servers aren't "profitable" for companies. They're a net cost on their bottom line and there's literally no way for them to produce profit in the first order by having then and ensuring that all of their communications go over email. It funnels money from all of these companies into Google that pays the electrical company that is funded by the US government.
But you can bet your ass that the companies not using email are highly inefficient and would be more efficient if they weren't hand delivering every message to their employees instead of just using email. Some things cost money without returning profits and that's ok because there are second order efficiencies to be had.

>>61070646
>They're a net cost on their bottom line and there's literally no way for them to produce profit in the first order by having then and ensuring that all of their communications go over email. It funnels money from all of these companies into Google that pays the electrical company that is funded by the US government.
Yes but how does OpenAI funnel money into anything. The only AI that can adopt this model is Google and maybe Microsoft and even then the cost is massive compared to email servers

>>61070548
>Rewrite this feature to the new spec
>It creates 20 lines of bloat
>Shorten this to something more compact without hurting efficiency
Like I said. You still need to fundamentally understand the problem. You're not gonna come in without experience and produce anything good with these models. But if you know what you're doing and what you're looking for you can prompt out gold in a fraction of the time.

You don't have to be Leopold Aschenbrenner to see that the three prongs of the next Industrial Revolution are a complete paradigm shift in human organization.
-Robotics: Automation of labor
-AI: Automation of intelligence
-Crypto: Automation of trust and value exchange

That covers basically everything that people do. It's everything, automated. The winners win the 21st century and probably the rest of 22nd as well.

>>61070661
Yeah that's the game. Read the thread. I said they're all going for monopoly or at least majority control same as how existing cloud providers have the option between gcp AWS and azure. Somebody will fail and get eaten by the bigger player and life will go on.

>>61070674
Experience economy.

>>61070674
>Robotics: Automation of labor
Productivity growth is at a 80 year minimum. Most robots are just machines not the terminators that some of you expect
>-AI: Automation of intelligence
There is 0 success stories of this happening yet and the technology looks stagnant. Chat bots will become more efficient but not more intelligent without some massive breakthrough in mathematics
>-Crypto: Automation of trust and value exchange
Crypto is inefficient and slow, it is useless at automating things. If it gets implemented it would be through intermediaries making it no different than gold

>>61070691
That's not the point, the point is that ROI will be shit and it is basically money thrown into the drain to the benefit of the consumer

>>61070674
nice science fiction

>>61070729
Good luck with the next 20 years, anon.

>>61070861
I am unironically set for life, I am just advicing you to not go full retard on a clown economy. The rate of innovation currently is much lower than 80 years ago and most "value creation" is just due the increase in multiples and not due real value creation which is why most people are poorer than 30 years ago despite 3 decades of innovation

>>61070900
I don't think you have any understanding of any of the three subjects I mentioned if you think that the rate of innovation is low.

>>61070751
For whom? ROI on rise share is shit but they still pump billions into it because there's tons of money to be made for whoever can last long enough to be the final player in the game.

>>61070955
It is the lowest it has being in 80 years. Mind you 80 years ago things like nuclear energy, transistors or plastics were the innovations while currently we are just improving technologies that were already thought 50 to 70 years ago.
The biggest development in the last 30 years boils down to increased computing power due Moore's law while innovation in physics, chemestry or condensed matter have stalled.
I don't know what your technical understanding is (probably very low desu) but you are missing the entire point of what I said

>>61070997
>enough to be the final player in the game.
If the game is a chatbot and not AGI then the prize is pretty shit anon. That's my entire point, if what happened to GPT5 replicates and we have entered into a plateau of diminishing returns then most of those billions invested for AI are wasted money and most of the progress left for that technology will be spent making it cheaper and less energy intensive

>>61071027
End consumers are already using these chatbot even at this plateau level to levels that are never going to go back to the before times. So the question isn't "what will we do without ai when it doesn't get any better". It's "how do we reduce the cost of AI so I can turn a profit on selling this tool".
The answer is algorithmic efficiency and revamping the electrical system combined with hardware improvements. All of these things are guaranteed to happen. So if you're Nvidia or Google or Microsoft or openai why the fuck would you stop pushing when holding out until the end could make you more money than God? Yes it's a gamble. Yes somebody is going to fail hilariously. But the winner won't be laughing.

>>61071088
Ok so you agree with me that if progress stalls then you get something that can easily be replicated and the technology fronteer is making it cheaper and when its cheaper any random jeet will be able to provide the same thing as you riding on the cocktails of your investment.
I don't think you are concious how much money is going into this and how much value will be destroyed if it doesn't drastically improve. At this current stage chatbots at most should be worth 30B USD and if they actually succeed in making them cheaper they will be an smaller industry than condom production

>>61071137
>Any random jeet can build a data center powered by a modular nuclear reactor and economies of scale to buy thousands of h100s
You lost me.

>>61071184
Anon if it gets cheaper and there are hundreds of identical models already trained you will be able to buy one of those and rip the rewards of efficiency at a fraction of the cost. If you make chatbots cheap thet immediatly lose their MOAT as an investment

>>61071220
YOU
NEED
HARDWARE
TO
RUN
THESE
MODELS
If you're openai, why would you let some random jeet use the hardware you bought for less than cost? Yes there will be cloud hosting but the person selling that hosting is going to be the one profiting, not the jeet running the mini model.

>>61071242
Hardware requirements are extremeley bloated in order for kikevidia to make bank.
The chinks releasing a model for free that needs 1/100th of the processing power should have clued you in.

>>61071184
>>61071088
I think what he's trying to say is that jeets don't have to match the scale and output of GPT 5, they just have to be *close enough*. Do you think the average consoomer knows the difference?
Most of them are probably interacting with deepseek models in chat comments and on generated Youtube videos and it's doubtful any of them know. The value falls when the product becomes so good as to be indistinguishable from its knockoffs to its customers.

>>61071242
>Make model more efficient
>Hardware requirements drop
> the annual 400B USD investment in AI centers starts looking very fucking stupid
Anon you are very slowly getting there

>>61071276
If you think that then start your own business and become a billionaire over night.

>>61071386
Hardware requirements being lower just means more people can afford it which means you still have the requirement for that much hardware for a wider audience. See Jevons paradox. It's almost like teams of brilliant people have thought about these things and know more than a bunch of neets scrounging for pocket change on a Cambodian jazzercise forum.

>>61071355
The average consumer isn't going to purposely send their data to Sandeep.

>>61071677
So more people producing the same thing with lower capital costs than the initial investors is a good investment for the initial investors

>>61071733
>With lower cost than the initial investor
You lost me again. Openai building an entire data center with integrated power supply does not reduce the cost for the next guy because openai is not going to let you use their infrastructure below cost. You either build your own or you pay to use theirs and they make a profit.

>>61066267 (OP)
AI is bad all around
>waste of energy and resources to create sponge bob getting arrested videos
>destroys the capacity of independent thinking on humans
>no more truth in media due to fake slop
>80% of job positions go extinct
>humanity becomes dumb, poor and unemployed, consuming personalized slop

If AGI is achieved:
>it has, at least a 20% chance of destroying humanity (says elon)
>It will compete with humans for energy and resources
>It will want to destroy humans to defend and grow its own existence
>at best, humans can become pets or digital simulations in dedicated servers
>at worst, atoms in humans will be repurposed to create quantum computers to run super AGI

If AGI is not achieved:
>AI bubble bursts
>Economy collapses
>see first scenario but with a recession deeper than the worst crisis you can imagine

AI is a race to see who can throw more money into creating skynet or crash the economy into a cliff.

>>61071800
>Openai building an entire data center with integrated power supply does not reduce the cost for the next guy because openai is not going to let you use their infrastructure below cost.
Companies like Oracle are investing 100B USD in these data centers to lease them. If progress stalls it will become much cheaper to train this models and if energy efficiency proliferates it will become cheaper and cheaper to replicate the models

>>61072212
There are a lot of ifs in there

>>61072212
Again they wouldn't lease it below cost. SOMEBODY is going to make money and the ones that don't will get absorbed.

>>61066939
I can tell you that from just reading 1 or 2 ML papers from NeurIPS

>>61072197
truth bomb

>>61066502
>No we don't.
we do, since gpt4.5

>>61072197
we have AGI today
>does taxes
>understands nuance
>can have back and forth conversations
>doesn't get stuck in a loop

this
>"it has, at least a 20% chance of destroying humanity (says elon)"
is total horseshit made by retards who don't really understand how transformers work, or how a LLM was formed
just a massive dunning kruger

>>61072871
bruahaha

Zitron is literally a leftist retard that can't write a fizzbuzz. He is wrong and consistently lies about OpenAI and Anthropic

>>61066267 (OP)
>is this a prudent decision by America?
You are a moron if you're not betting on AI. Its following the same adoption phase as the internet itself. I fully anticipate more up only bubble and a crash like 1999...and then 5 years of steady product development and insane fucking transformative growth.

We're still in the Pets.com/Webvan era of AI where the gainz are made, not products.

>>61074666
robots are a fucking joke

>>61066896
>After 5 year all of them effectively worthless, as the new computers where so much better (and cheaper). You could buy a desktop computer in the 60s that had x1000 the computational power of ENIAC, there where 100 times cheaper.

This is a dumb line of thinking, because ENIAC paved the way for later computers. Also they weren't going to copy paste them. Same with AI now every new model or hardware has improvements. Of course in 5 years things will be faster, but you got to walk before you can run.

>>61074666
>you're a moron if you're not betting on ai
>we're in the pets.com era
uhhhhhhhhh

>>61067814
>they want to integrate the big boys to be reliant on it like they would be regular office IT and print
if only ai was useful for anything, this scheme might work

>>61072293
Most of the cost will be interests and amortization. It will be a net loss regardless, and if the data centers are not used they will rent it even for a marginal profit

>>61074708
Robots are not a scam in fact they have already automated 3/4 of manufacturing jobs in the last 5 decades. The problem when we talk about robots is that retards like >>61074666
talk about terminators while the actual business is in things like robotic arms

>>61066267 (OP)
have you seen what this shit currently will do if sculpted to moulds? 100 million American jobs gone. that means 64/164 million Americans will be working.
if it is only 1/4 of the 100 mill it is still 25 million jobs gone. factories aren't gonna bring back jobs.

>>61075180
Amazon and PayPal came out of that same era and you'd kill yourself if you missed the chance to invest in them that early.

>>61075488
there has been a lot of progress made in general purpose robots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48pxVdmkMIE

>>61075488
we are talkign about humanoid robots, you fuckign shill nigger

>>61077669
humanoid robots are retarded and only smooth brain retard wouldn't get it.