Thread 61071785

The amount of silver mined since 1980 is ~860,000 tons. In 1980, only ~300,000 tons of silver had been mined.

This means the circulating supply of silver has increased nearly 300%. One silver coin in 1980 was as rare as 4 silver coins now.

Gold is even worse -- a ratio of 1:8.

For the dollar, this number is 1:13.

So based on the 1980 peak prices, fair prices are:

Gold: $875*(13/8) = $1422
Silver: $48*(13/4) = $156

Basically Gold is overvalued and Silver is still massively undervalued.

Useless rocks thoughbeit

>>61071785 (OP)
Yeah sure but you're assuming the market makes sense.

>>61071785 (OP)
>For the dollar, this number is 1:13.
Blatant lie.

>>61071785 (OP)
We can refine our model by incorporating demand. Modern consumption of gold is over 5x what it was in 1980. For silver, that number is around 3.5x. So adjusted estimates:

Gold:
$875*(13/8)*5=$7110

Silver:
$48*(13/4)*3.5=$546

This means Gold could still do another ~2x before achieving a fair value, while Silver could do a ~11x before reaching a fair value on the same terms.

>>61071797
>Useless rocks
Gold and silver are needed to run every modern computer. You're just a retard.

>>61071812
What do you think the real number is? Let's use that instead

>>61071797
They SHOULD be useless. That's what makes them work as money. The stability and the uselessness of them. So many people even stackers fail to understand that. I don't give a shit if they use silver in solar panels or gold in space shuttles. I only care about their uses as monetary reserves.

>>61071842
whatever it takes to price out india

>>61071854
You are using M2 but you should be using M3 instead.

>>61071918
>~21T / ~1.5T = 14
Oh dear me. Swap that dreadful 13 out!

>>61071952
And while you are at it think about assets denominated in dollars. The stock market, money market derivatives, housing. You know - book value that is conveniently masking the true money expansion that has happened since 1980.

>>61072000
If you can quantify that, I'm happy to hold your hand and do the calculation for you.

>>61072025
Lets start with
US stock market $62.2 trillion
US housing market $55.1 trillion
I am open to debate if this would be includeable in your calculation.

>>61072082
U.S. stock market in 1980 was around $1.2 trillion
he total value of the U.S. housing market in 1980 would be roughly $4.17 trillion in 1980 dollars
So we would have to add those numbers to the dollar value.

>>61072082
Give me a comparison between 2025 numbers and 1980 numbers. Are you saying the stock market is currently valued at $62.2T? And housing is valued at $55.1T? What were these numbers in 1980?

We can plug it in and see what we get. I think the message will be roughly the same as >>61071840 though.

a millionaire pre gold standard needed 50 million after the gold standard was dropped shekelstein told me

>>61072097
Yes here are the 2025 numbers >>61072082
and here are the 1980 numbers >>61072096

>>61071785 (OP)
>This means the circulating supply of silver has increased nearly 300%. One silver coin in 1980 was as rare as 4 silver coins now.
you say this like it's a good thing. what you're pointing out here is that silver is worth 25% of what it was in 1980, all else equal

Is the 80 peak a rational benchmark? It was formed by the Hunts buying paper on margin, largely localised to American markets, and very temporary, after their actions were legislated against. We don't have a clear picture of what's driving metal prices yet, but it's almost certainly 1. Institutional, 2. Global and therefore, 3. Resistant to legislation from a single country. That makes it markedly different.

>>61072096
Ok so
2025:
($21T M3 + $62T stock + $55T housing) = $138T, size of entire US economy currently

1980:
($1.5T M3 + $1.2T stock + $4.2T housing) = $6.9T total US economy in 1980.

$138T/$6.9T = 20

So you'd swap the 13 out for a 20.

Fair gold price = $10.9K
Fair silver price = $840

Or a 2.72x and a 16.8x, respectively.

>>61071842
You know gold coatings are micron thin right? Its so little that it's hardly even worth recovering.

>>61072139
I am also open to debate on the addition of the derivatve market that was starting to develop in 1980 with a 1 trillion dollar value and epanded to over a quadrillion dollars in 2025.

>>61072139
when will pmg fags learn that there is no such thing as an inflation hedge

>>61072139
At $840/oz, 1kg silver would be $30K.
Funny, I bought my kg for less than $840.

This would probably represent a very high upper limit to fair value, where the OP shows an approximate lower limit

>>61071902
>price out india
Based.
>>61072149
>hardly even worth recovering
But it's still in there, and required for modern computers to function...

>>61072151
That gets dicey, since some of the derivatives are based on gold/silver. But if you insist on including it, just swap out the factor of 20 for 1000/8 = 125 since the quadrillion number will dominate the numerator.

A factor of 5 increase from >>61072139.

But I would consider that really really reaching

>>61072191
>Factor of 6 increase*
Ftfm

>>61071785 (OP)
LMAO, what was the world population in 1980? The number of ounces per person has been only going down. Give me fair valuation, I'll slurp up all the gold I can afford at that price. Never holding piece of shit fiat again.

>>61072191
Lets say i wouldn't include the bond market completely because most of it is also not included in M3. I'll would take a safe bet and take the derivative market in full in exchange for this.

>>61071785 (OP)
she's actually so pretty

>>61072208
Fair addition.
>>61072191
So we would have to adjust all numbers for pupulation size.

>>61071785 (OP)
I want to have sex with her if you know what I mean

>>61072208
Population has done a 1.85x since 1980, so no, actually, oz / person has increased, not decreased.

>>61072235
I know what you mean... look at those a10s

>>61072240
Give me 1400/oz gold again. I lost 60% of the value of my cash while saving for a house. Fuck your paper dollars.

>>61072244
Those are senpaku a10s, a rare and highly dangerous combination

>>61072240
4.44 billion in 1980
8.19 billion in 2025

>>61072261
>8.19/4.44=1.8445
There's a calculator on your device, y'know.

>>61072253
I'd transfer her 100% of my cold wallets if she asked me irl

These calculations have all used peak 1980 panic prices for gold/silver btw. If we use a more conservative estimate of "normal" 1980 prices, we'd use say $5 silver and $500 gold. That would bring all silver estimates down by a factor of 10 and gold estimates down by nearly a factor of 2. So the most egregious "fair prices" in this scenario would be:
Gold $5.45K
Silver $84
(Using >>61072139 math)

>>61072300
Although you could make the argument that when peak 1980s style panics set in we can expect to see peak 1980s style panic prices (adjusted to 2025 as we did above).

>>61072300
There's always a panic bonus. We will see. I can live with those numbers. Thank you OP and sorry for my harsh introduction.

>>61072316
>sorry for my harsh introduction
This is 4chan nigger. Harsh introductions are like polite "hello"s.

>>61072300
those seem like fairly reasonable prices.
The question is, what happens to all the other shit. Houses, energy, the stock market.
You can see the huge inflation on all of those assets. So we are either in a "everything" bubble, or we are hard core losing trust in fiat.
Will they be able to make the public trust fiat again, or will it run away this time. And if it falls, what will be next?

Can we get back to talking about how beautiful, sexy, pretty, and hot the woman in OP's picrel is

>>61072419
she looks crazy she would probably trans my kids to try to fit in

>>61072489
I would accept this deal to cum inside of her once

>>61072414
>what will be next
He asked, on the board that shills chainlink morning, noon, and night

>>61072504
I am not expecting infinite wisdom on here.
Just different ideas, that might give me new ideas.
I am not looking for THE truth but for as many possibilitys as ,well, possible.

>>61072538
I was saying that to point out that the answer to
>what replaces fiat?
is painfully obvious to people on this board. Even if you don't follow the chainlink cult, it's clear crypto is the next big thing as far as money systems go. It's simply a question of "which crypto gets adopted?" and "how fast?"

>>61072414
The only way they can get anyone to trust FIAT again is if they don't intervene and let the market crash play out for real into a prolonged depression.

>>61071785 (OP)
Still better then avalanche

>>61071840
Is the consumption of gold even relevant?

>>61071797
the only useless shit is Crypto

>>61072185
>required for modern computers to function...

dunning-kruger strikes again

>>61071785 (OP)
Silver has been undervalued since 1873 so that jews could usurp more power and quality of life for themselves. Anyways, close to 2/3 mined silver is used up in industry or unavailable. The COMEX and LBMA have less than 3 billion ounces (much less)

>>61071785 (OP)
>markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain alive

Is anyone taking into account the 4 billion people in south and east Asia - most of whom were living in abject poverty in 1980 - now comprise the largest and growing consumers of gold and silver?

>>61075366
Fair numbers are not always real numbers. It's just to get a guess. I made my own calculations based on this thread and i like what i'm seeing. You should adjust for your beliefs, too.

>>61075388
checked but incorrect

>Dollar to Silver Ratio $1,228 per ounce
>Paper to Silver Ratio 359.95:1

>>61072208
>the world has been flooded with chinks and jeets so my shiny metals must be worth more.

>>61071785 (OP)
All three are inflationary. BTC>gold>silver>fiat. It's not complicated dawg.

>>61071785 (OP)
>school for 10 years
The type of person who makes this decision is terrible with money to begin with.

>>61075032
You can pass your silver down to your kids

silver will crash, down to $8, that is much more feasible, a great reset brought you by WEF, and the Big Banks who had hoard all the Hunt's brothers silver since 1980s. SELL SELL SELL!

>>61071785 (OP)
this analysis completely ignores all economic growth that took place between 1980 and now.

>>61071785 (OP)
This thread is bait. All they have to do is mine more silver. There's literally no shortage of silver- Latin America is sitting on a ton of it. There is however a finite supply of gold.

>>61071785 (OP)
I can save her

So what you're saying is that Silver has room to run.

>>61079419
>>61080132
Read the thread