Thread 61075005

Futures Edition

>Educational sites:
https://www.investopedia.com/
https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain

>Financial TV Streams:
https://www.newslive.com/american/cnbc.html
https://www.livestreamy.net/bloomberg/

>Charts:
https://www.tradingview.com
https://www.finscreener.com
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com

>Screeners:
https://finviz.com/
https://etfdb.com/

>Gambling
https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/
https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com
https://optionstrat.com/
https://www.optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices

>Pre-Market and Live data:
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
https://finance.yahoo.com/

>Calendars
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/building-permits

>Boomer Investing 101:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started
https://www.sec.gov/search-filings

>Misc smg:
https://www.financialjuice.com/home
https://finance.yahoo.com/trending-tickers
https://market24hclock.com/
https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator
https://brokerchooser.com/
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/us-market-rates

Previously on /SMG/
>>61073034

Convince me to not buy more AMD

Friday and Monday are looking bearish, Tuesday the bull run begins anew.

it's over

I want to slurp something tomorrow

>shorts gold an hour ago
>gold rises
>wait
>give up
>close short
>gold falls within 180 seconds
i want to fucking kill myself

USAR
USAR
USAR

>>61075022
Next level mental gymnastics coping

>>61075051
It's just mafs bro.

>APLD
>CCCX

>>61075022
>nigger opinion
Think of all the products and services people buy. And the amount of those purchases that will be AI expenses for the producer.

>>61075071
>let's imagine some products and services in our mind palaces

Coal bros...

That’s it I’m shorting quantum tomorrow call me Michael Burry

>>61075022
>linear extrapolation on a consumer subscription
This is what they have been demanding your respect for all this time

>>61075078
i only know a couple niche ai markets that arent chatbots, someones gonna have to imagine other products and services to add to it

in NA i only calculated maybe $1 billion TAM annually for ai dashcams.
i also invested in anti-fraud services against increasing ai fraud but hard to put a TAM on that

im looking into concrete later to diversify away from ai too, still have to verify shit before i buy like why does a giant like Lafarge even bother dealing with a microcap

>>61075031
>swapped to longing gold
>really dumps
i need to stop switching up like a fag

ZENA looks like its fixing to break out.

And WWR is the next USAR

PLUG POWER

>>61075005 (OP)
>Futures Edition

I am going to short APLD in 4.5 hours

boomer retards have spent the last six weeks piling their life savings into AI hype with no regard for what the technology can do, the financial situation of the businesses involved, or the market sentiment towards AI

are they about to get rugged? or does wall street have some other trick up its sleeve to keep this mania going

>There was a bubble all along
>It was gold

lol. lmao even.

>>61075022
Yep, that's true. I said it several times. AI will be like current Telcoms. They will throw their AI models at you with discounts. You'll get an AI device (PC or whatever) with it, for a 1-2 year contract, kek. It will be a race to the bottom pricewise.

>>61075022
how is he wrong

robots are gay and retarded, why do you want to be friends with a robot, I can't fuck it

>>61075156
tech shit will get dumped

leaving mcd, ko, walmart, amazon, adm, exxon the top performers

time to come back to reality snowflakes

>>61075120
There's a pretty cool tech that lasers weeds, but with tariff mans dumb fuck approach to global trade being a farmer is a bad bet whether ai or not. Someone else is also going to have to imagine a functional admin running the government.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DeC74YUP2j4

>>61075137
>>61075031

Stop trying to swingtrade minor movements. You are just bored or feel like you got to catch up (with some goal or something, or others).

Also don't go into trades that you are not comfortable with. It might be tempting to short Gold at this level, but if you are stressing out over it and you give up this quick, you're better off not doing it at all.

i need a bigger brain

shill data center stocks that I should buy

>>61075167
It's knocking on $4k
silver knocking on $50
No bubble, just the journey to fair value

Wtf ZCash.. I even thought of buying some, when I started with crypto in July. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

>>61075176
>wmt has a P/E ratio of 38
you learn something new every day

>>61075209
I just realized yesterday that OpenAI has double the Mcap of AMD, and that even after the pump. And AMD actually sells stuff and it still has a PE of +100.

>>61075137
>>61075031
>>61075181
swing trading is a fine thing to do but once you pointed out that anon is
>stressing out
it dawned on me that he's taking too large of positions

if it were me, next time i'd take a position about half as large and see if i could stomach the moves a bit better

>>61075222
Generally yes, but if you look at Gold and the size of the moves, he's trying to trade small swings. That's extreme stress and only profitable with a lot of leverage or a lot of capital. And it's mostly not worth the risk and the stress.

Like, what was he trying to trade there. It bumped $12 and he closed the trade and then went long?

That's just not worth it. At least pick a direction for a few hours or 1-2 days. Doesn't have to be a week or a month. In his defense, Gold is trading more actively during chinese hours than other stuff, so there is more movement.

i swear i'm not the most retarded guy ever, i just like nice and even numbers

>>61075156
>are they about to get rugged?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fphcOSPgHtM

Looking back, it was the most obvious play

>>61075248
i just wanted a quick hundo, stayed watching the damn graph for an hour straight, gave up, it dumped past what would’ve made me $300+ within minutes. i go long. shit dumps. i sell at yet another loss and ended up losing a quick $140.
i am now at my all time lowest point by twelve dollars and have roundtripped the $3k windfall from UVIX in august. down $20k on the year. 4 digit value in account now. thanks for the
>>61075222
thanks for the advice. i told myself earlier today to quit futures but wanted one or three final small wins. ended up fucking myself

Simply incredible that all Rare Earth mining corps have exploded over the last month except LITM.
I'm gonna McFucking kill myself

>>61075167
Bought my first ever share of GLD yesterday. Didn't even bother checking my port today, yet another fumble.

>>61075248
your assessment seems mostly fair and level-headed to me but i disagree to some extent on one point

>And it's mostly not worth the risk and the stress.

for me swing-trading is specifically a choice that reduces risk. i don't like sleeping on positions or, god forbid, sitting in boomer stocks when they close for 48 hours on the weekend

over the years i've found that alone to be too risk-averse of a stance to actually make money in the markets. so what i do is swing trade really small moves, like stopping myself out at -0.5%. but when i hit a home run and go +2% in a day i let it ride for days or weeks

Video interview with Musk shows although Starlink recently acquired spectrum from EchoStar current cell foams cannot use that spectrum until they are redesigned and manufactured to use that spectrum and Must estimates that is two years out. Also Musk states Starlink needs to manufacture new satellites to use that spectrum, and even when they do the speed will be slower than AST Spacemobile. And AST Spacemobile's are able to communicate with current cell phones. Also, before Musk bought spectrum from EchoStar ATT also bought spectrum from EchoStar one month earlier and AST is partnering with ATT, Verizon, Vodafone and other cell service provides and not competing with them. AST finished two more sats and is shipping them for launch. Looks like AST owns this market by being first, it currently works, they are building out and launching the sats, and they have a substantial patent moat protecting their technology. I think this is why the price is ripping now and will continue to rip unless a rocket launching its sats blows up.

>>61075298
I bought a couple hundred shares of TMQ after the news for fun and its not exploding....WTF?

>>61075311
forgot the link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1McuD7smGU

Yesterday:
>China implements export controls and restrictions on metals

Now:
>US imposes sanctions on China refinery, others for Iran oil purchases

>>61075300
If that works for you, fine.

>>61075296
Forget the quick money. You can't force it. You need another big win like with UVIX. Save your money, mind and time for that.
As I assumed >>61075181
You feel like you have to catch up.

love me smg
simple as

>>61075299
its beautiful. some anon last night literally tanked gold by buying GLD. what a jerk.

>>61075327
yeah i had liquidated everything else but still had 1k locked in futures equity and played around with it rather foolishly. holding out for… until i have enough money i can afford to lose some. or just not buy the century top of gold. last actual stock i flipped was KVUE earlier today at $16.5 ($17 now)

thank you for the calm analysis, i feel better but still like a moron. good night anon

>>61075340
kek

the worst thing is that i was actually shorting gold futures at $4071 but cancelled right before the dump. longed at $4055 thinking it would insta V and doubled down multiple times, exiting at $4044.
glad i cut those losses else i would be down about a thousand, but knowing that doesn’t make me feel any better

>>61075336
This is the worst /smg/ ever

>>61075346
impressive
>>61075352
I love /smg/

>>61075342
I know man, but don't let that destroy you. In the end it still is only money. Others are rich and still miserable. A lot of trading is also about the feeling of success, not just the money. Purpose and pride.

>>61075346
That's what I meant, you don't feel comfortable. I also shorted Gold on an cryptoexchange (trying out the platform, also nice interest payments for holding position) but got out right before the pump started, just because I didn't feel comfortable. You see the rise and think, I'm gonna short it. Later then you realize...
>Why did I even short this? Why should it go down

You probably lost too much to be able to trade without constant fear. You either need to find a market where you don't feel it or take a pause or something.

Sister marriage general bros, are we back?

>AI bubble now 17 times bigger than dot-com boom and four times larger than subprime crisis, analyst warns MarketWatch
>Nvidia valued at $4.7 trillion

Its so over

>>61075361
Don't@me because of the +$0,13. I said I was trying out the platform. The 1hr funding also constanly changes, I wanted to see the effects of it which is why I'm not putting thousands in there.

>>61075361
When you're trading gold properly, what signals do you use?

first billionaires (sek) in applied ai startups showing up, fastest ever

>>61075375
I don't trade Gold at all. I mainly wanted to see how the funding works, as not all crypto platforms are the same. Crypto offers often a lot more interest, even on conventional markets. See picrel, the funding accrued over time but it wasn't added to my position, didn't increase my capital (I think). Other platforms pay you out while you hold and it increases the margin of your position, basically extending your stopout. You can also see that the rate is constantly changing.

If I was to trade Gold, I'd use it as a hedge for the real Gold I have here. And its purpose would be to farm the interest, 1hr funding 0,0012% =10% annualized. You can see on the image that it was also at 0,0131% which translates to an APR of 100%.

>israel's foreign minister is an indian
What does this bode for the negotiations?

>>61075378
>SEK
Europe is not a serious continent

>>61075352
>This is the worst /smg/ ever
This thread is fine. I've seen worse.

>>61075395
India strongest ally of Israel sir

>>61075371
Is it really though? p/e ratios arent even higher and eps across the S&P 500 have only increased.

>>61075361
ok this week has been harrowing
>buy euro futes
>sleep
>french govt collapses, euro shits the bed
>recovers by morning, could exit with $40 profit
>nah let’s get greedy
>dumps
>recovers
>sell at 1.1666 today
>tanks to 1.160 today. not touching it
>do the above gold trades
>lie in bed, wishing i just didn’t touch futures at all
>look at gold
>if i longed gold an hour ago i would have made it back
not falling for that trap again
watch gold do some fuckshit
going to bed with no positions open tonight
good night smg, i will have bad dreams tonight. getting hibachi with the gf tomorrow. at least im not at literally zero from wiping out savings like earlier this year

>>61075395
Nobody had the intention to build a wall.

>>61075396
jensen just mentioned loving the swedish startup "lovable", they're looking at a new valuation of 4 billion usd

>>61075408
How do you not kill yourself after wiping savings?

>>61075416
>we'll invest in you for a ridiculous valuation as long as you spend most of it on blackwell gpus
it's all so circular, i'm getting dizzy

I was down 4.6% today and it sucked, but I was also up 5% the day before so maybe my greed is just getting the best of me
I have way too much shit in my portfolio. Once enough turns a profit I'm gonna try to trim the fat and just have bigger positions in a few things, instead of many smaller positions.

>>61075435
Similarly, much of Microsoft's investment in OpenAI was in the form of Azure credits, not dollars in a bank account. Lol. There may have been something similar between Amazon and Anthropic, but it's less clear to me.

>>61075435
>The company was founded in the fall of 2023 and by 2025 had contracted an annual turnover of 100 million US dollars, which according to Forbes made it the fastest growing start-up company in history.

>>61075022
JFC…

>>61075038
I’m up 90% with that lil’ mofo. Thanks to the anon who shilled it and spurred me into doing a bit of research.

AI is the biggest and most obvious bubble ever. Imagine thinking AI generated catgirls would add 100 billion market cap to oracle

>>61075494
what about ai generated futa catgirls

>>61075494
>Imagine thinking AI generated catgirls would add 100 billion market cap to oracle
not hard to imagine. almost to normal valuations for the product.

>futures

>https://youtu.be/nUdEkZKhlC0?si=EST-p_E7ZT9Dtj5z

GRRR sisters, status report?

>>61075494
Wrong buddy. The technology is to generate AI HR girls at every business across the West and replace every outsourced Jeet call center.

But I am pretty sure that as long as there is a prevalent African and Jewish problem in populations AI will never reach its full potential.

Literally shorting ALD in two hours

Is ChatGPT now intelligent enough to handle everything normies do with it? Would normies even notice further improvements?

>futures
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6AVe-Hm8Ew

Nigger

>>61075529
I didn't post this

>>61075494
I wonder what will really happen if the bubble explodes? Could the fallout be much worse, like Dot Com + Savings/loans crisis + Black Monday + GFC 2008 all at once?

>https://youtu.be/v2pPRiUUnOg?si=E3T_NedMBHcTe8EW

>>61075518
How many hundred k do i need to be making a year to get an asian girl to rest her feet on my lap during lunch hour?

>>61075569
350k. I need to make this work.

>>61075527
it'll replace programmers, they're automating their own jobs, making themselves obsolete, the same people who just the other year were preaching for everyone to teach their kids to code. including jensen himself.
it's the first thing coming out the chimney.

if it's as pivotal as everyone says the societal adjustment could be extremely painful.

>>61075565
>Could the fallout be much worse, like Dot Com + Savings/loans crisis + Black Monday + GFC 2008 all at once?
Stop, stop, you're making me too excited.

>looking at historical IVs for UPS to determine how it might impact my options trade, realize my options are actually at historically low IV
>It's a straddle write, options calculator places my max profit slightly above my 85 strike, this is typical for straddles, most are technically strangles because they have a slight bullish outlook unless you use a ratio of call-to-puts or even shares to get it delta neutral (this requires regular rebalancing to keep making it delta neutral)
>IV is supposed to be a reflection of volatility, as in estimating future risk and adding it to the price. In reality for complicated reasons I don't know, IV is the expectation of downward movements. upward movements decrease IV.
>ergo, if the price increases it comes closer to the max profit that is above the strike, if it decreases in price IV increases and the options increase in value
Any options bros wanna chime in?

Little worried silver might collapse the financial system

>>61075625
Post your positions and cost basis

>>61075627
I still maintain a 2026 top via benner cycles. I've taken like profit by shaving 10% of my mining stocks already, and will probably sell half or so around Feb. From there, I'm going to probably just sit on SGOV for most of the year and dca back in

fuck I was secretly hoping APLD tanks and my stop loss fires and I would have to deal with +155% position today
My fren is shilling viking therepeutics and wanted to dip another 200 EUR somewhere, or should I do more APLD and fuck i'm new to this and it's mildly intimidating. Or just trust the 4chan gut and go with LAR

>>61075625
Huh? IV and Delta are not the only factors to consider. How broad is the spread and for how far out? The whole point is to expect a slightly bullish movement with the added downside protection all the while gaining premium on the calls w/o having to give up your shares. If you are going short time period then Delta is very important, if IV is high and you want to go long, then wait for the IV to simmer down.

>>61075639
Honestly, it doesn't matter how fancy the position is, what matters is your net greeks

>>61075632
price is the price i paid for it s little over a month ago.

>Global financial crisis in 2026

>https://youtu.be/OcbrXPdP2w8?si=xjJMUE6n-tiG8qUq
>https://youtu.be/q5FX_rfjqm8?si=X_lY1e0kMeOL8llZ
>https://youtu.be/RmNx5dnM56M?si=MxekJO3hvgUKiCf6
>https://youtu.be/l33eB8bc7IE?si=xOPyFLGjVXX1uRGk
>https://youtu.be/GYUE4KHTtP4?si=OyXMWB6prxemwQlV
>https://youtu.be/BMe0QycHfv0?si=_YFsIyd90Vxg1IUk

This is what I think the chaos would sound like when stock markets crash and burn

>>61075642
>>61075641
Yeah I specifically wrote robinhood when they surveyed me that the biggest thing I wanted was net Greek positions like net deltas and net thetas. Never was interested in Net IV but any are good. Schwab ToS looks like the only brokerage that does this. Toyed with tasty trade but I mean if it can’t broke… not even sure they have it either

>>61075569
You have to talk to them
Not worth it

>>61075639
i dont have any shares

>>61075656
Lmao you're going to get fucked when your buyer exercises early.

>>61075655
how many Ks to not have to talk to them during this act?

>>61075659
why would he exercise early? they have a month of time premium. It's covered anyways with same strike calls.

>Japan’s Komeito Party Plans To Exit Coalition With LDP – NHK

That slide probably was Japan

>>61075665
Cuz fuck you that's why

>>61075642
Am I being retarded?
> buy: $45,300
> write: $38,000

Initial net loss of $7,300 to open the straddle. You are expecting very bullish?

>>61075442
Concentration is the game brother. Dieworseification kills gains

>>61075649
>2026 meltdown
What did he mean by this?

>>61075665
If you don't have the collateral cash or shares your broker will automatically exercise your long positions and you will get fucked out of the extra theta you paid on them

>>61075677
its not a net loss it's the debit to open the position. I can sell the position back and receive a credit, and hopefully for more than I paid. it's the difference between your longs and shorts. sometimes they can be credits too, like selling ITM call with ATM/OTM call so long as it's covered with something. You know how you receive a credit for selling a shares-covered call?

>>61075665
>why would they exercise early
"Why" doesn't matter. Only that it can

>>61075699
You’re mincing words friend. I don’t care if you call buying as a debit. Real money moved from your account to someone else. You don’t get it back. Even if you immediately sold, you still pay the premiums on both sides to your broker. I am not sure if you are trying to convince yourself or me. Don’t be one of those loss porn accounts.

>>61075693
>>61075693
there is literally no reason for them to be exercised, Do you understand parity? They are giving up an entire month of time value. the strike is 85, the ups price is 85.50. each contract has an intrinstic value of .50 per share, or $50 per contract. the market price for the call writes are 4.83, or $483 dollars per contract. theres over 4 dollars of extrinsic value. you would be a fucking retard to pay $483 dollars for the rightto buy 100 shares of ups at 85 to sell it at 85.5 for a 50 cent per share proft on 100 shares, earning you 50 dollars. there is literally no profit in doing this. you paid 483 and gained 50, for a net loss of 433. That is the time value of the contract, 4.33 per share.

but now i have to think about dividends 0_0

Anyone else feel like that one mario party gif where luigi does absolutely nothing and wins
I've been holding NVDA since like 2017. Didn't flinch during 2020, 2022, or earlier this year. I win.

>>61075735
Suppose the guy on the other side of your trade is balls deep with a leveraged short @ 82 and their broker liquidates them if UPS hits 91 next week, the risk exists

>>61075752
>I've been holding NVDA
idgi so you havent been selling the top and buying the bottom? you lose

>>61075757
You're right, It's over, I'm a failure :(

>>61075764
You may be a lover but you ain't no dancer

>>61075625
>In reality for complicated reasons I don't know, IV is the expectation of downward movements. upward movements decrease IV.
Yeah, this is interesting. In the Black-Scholes model, an asset's volatility is a permanent, constant thing, not something that changes day-to-day. But in real equity markets, there's the leverage effect: when a stock's price falls it becomes a more leveraged (and therefore more volatile) investment and when its price rises it becomes a less leveraged (and therefore less volatile) asset. (Imagine that the company considers doing a secondary stock offering every day. As the stock price fluctuates, some days it'll get more new capital for each share it sells and some days it'll get less. But these changes in the stock price have no effect on the company's debt; that stays the same.)

But there are other complicated reasons why the volatility graph curves in real markets. The market is usually more interested in insuring against price falls than price rises, options dealers behave in certain ways, etc.

>>61075752
I bought 9 shares of Amazon in 1998. Its now worth $246,000. Keep holding your Nigvidia. I bet they do another forward spit in a few years.

>>61075686
Wtf saaaaaars want my silver????

>>61075776
The entire village has pooled $50 for an ounce

>>61075773
ok boomer

>>61075772
I had an idea that kinda touches on MM's and quants
Instead of making a vol surface for IV, doing it for each greek, based on net exposure for each contract... kinda like max pain, but for greeks

>>61075732
this isnt a box spread. It also wouldn't matter if it was exercised. I keep the whole premium they gave me
>>61075772
I would have to re-read but I had picked up that the risk/reward profiles for calls and puts are slightly different and this is reflected in same strike options having different prices despite the stikes being exactly ATM and exactly the same time out of date. stocks can go to infinity, but never below zero so this reflects that.
>>61075733
I know what im talking about.

>>61075778
markets are human nature. ponzi schemes have limitations.

>>61075794
The issue is that if your short options are exercised against your long options you lose the extra theta you paid for the long ones because of the further out expirations

>>61075794
I'm using it to illustrate that no matter how confident you are on your trade, the short leg can get assigned at any time and fuck EVERYTHING up

>>61075732
True. If they can, they likely will every once in a while.

I'm fuckin with all kinds of shit, CFD, barriers, CFD-Options (Basically Options of CFD with Margin, worst case is liquidation at -50%, no debt), Crypto, Crypto leveraged>>61075393
but I'm not gonna touch one of those Options-strategies without fully understanding it and even if, there's still the chance I haven't fully understood it and I'm retarded.

>>61075780
Okie dokie Zoomer.

>>61075810
>barriers
How do you even trade those? They're too binary for my tastes
I have a CFD and option margin account on various platforms ... I might do futures at one point, but my CFDs are usually fine

>>61075794
>I know what I’m talking about

RIP

AAAAAAAAAAAA FREE ME FROM THESE BAGS

>>61075794
Also not sure if you are aware but UPS reports earnings Oct 28 before the open, betting on a literal flat line at basically a three year low through that screams bad idea to me

>>61075815
What do you mean by "binary"? I trade them on IG (broker). You can combine it with CFD or CFD-options, regular options likely as well as a countertrade.
>Sell puts on options
>Go short on barriers.

I mean, you could short AAPL with barriers and sell puts. Or do the reverse, buy AAPL on leverage and sell calls. I see barriers just as "more leverage than CFD" since CFD is mostly restricted in EU. If you have some Mauritius CFD broker, yeah you can go 1:200 and more, but I think CFD with too high leverage becomes too unpredictable and hard to manage. If it's a barrier with high leverage you know
>Ok, here's the K.O.
No calculations needed.

>>61075807
>>61075808
Im certain because I had this same thought when i read about this if it forced me to purchase from my longs and sell to my shorts, but it doesnt. it passes the contract to the buyers or instantenously exercises and sells them to the buyer on your behalf. You do the inverse of what opened the position, buy the short back and sell the longs for the prevailing market price, which the shorts lost more time value than the long so are cheaper to purchase back. Not to mention only one side would ever be exercised because no one would exercise the put side if the stock rallied.

Lets take a step back, They paid me 5.08 for the right to buy my calls. The market price for this contract is now much lower. I can buy the long contract and give it to the buyer for 4.83. I keep the difference because I am entitled to their premium. my long calls have lost .12 worth of time value premium while my short calls have lost .25, It's basic math.
>>61075810
they always can, just like a bank can sell all it's spy shares for 1 dollar. there is no reason for that to happen. It's like saying what happens when spy opens at $0, I don't know dude, what happens when the sun doesnt fucking rise in the morning? If your arguement is just planning around unlikely incredibly scenarios in the 0.01% you are in the wrong game.

>>61075842
I am thinking about closing the position before then, I already know retard. I opened this shit one month ago, i've already ate someone's lunch.

>>61075772
betting against price increases via options is probably the second fastest way to make cash with derivatives when it does the first being bets on vix numbers

sirs please make the silver available

>>61075649
>pic
damn I love that slut so much

>>61075031
He bought?

I’ve literally done this strategy like 3 times already on SPY, I don’t know what to tell you people. You think the price will stay around an area for a while, you buy calls and puts 3-6 months away, sell the same strike calls and puts 1-3 months away from expiration, and close or let it expire. You profit if it does not move significantly between now and the short expirations. You can even close it early to lock it in.

As far as I’m concerned I’ve already won this trade. I could sell it tomorrow for probably 5-7.5% profit since I bought them 30 days ago. Now it’s just do I risk what I’ve already made?

thought of this one myself. thoughts?

>>61075853
You're risking your upfront debit to claw back a bit of theta. If your short positions are exercised your long options will be automatically exercised to cover this, the long options will no longer be yours to sell if this happens

>>61075873
You know the top is in when Indian villagers are piling in.

So is this the crab before the rip before the dump?

>>61075884
>you people

Check out the antisemite in the chat.

Did you mention which stock you are currently doing this strat with or are you exclusively sticking to SPY? This thread is currently giving me AIDS so I may have read over that detail. IMO, SPY is a pretty safe one to use. MSFT also.

>>61075873
>>61075907
Exactly, poojeets rush to buy right at the top. Surely, /smg/ is smarter than that.

>>61075884
My statement >>61075810
was rather general. In regards to >>61075732

If somebody can fuck you over somehow, you have to expect it. I also think Shkreli is an idiot for telling people he's shorting memestocks as this only increases the risk they'll intentionally pump it.

Don't know if your strategy is comparible or not. I'm not reading everything and when it's about options I also check out as they don't interest me, because of those risks that I don't want to fully understand because I know there's the chance I don't fully understand them.

>>61075884
>literally
>Now it's just do

>>61075893
> If your short positions are exercised
0% chance of happening

Since U.S. stock options are American‐style, holders can exercise them any time before expiration. However, early exercise is uncommon because it destroys the option’s remaining time value. In practice, in-the-money calls are only exercised early to capture an upcoming dividend, and in-the-money puts almost never are (unless they’re extremely deep ITM with negligible time value or for tax/timing reasons). In other words, a short call is usually only assigned early if it’s deep ITM right before a dividend.a short put might be assigned early only if it’s deep ITM and the dividend arbitrage condition is met.

Because your plan is to close the short-leg before expiration, you will avoid most assignment risk. In fact, early assignment is rare unless a dividend or extreme stock move makes it optimal. To be safe, simply monitor upcoming dividends and be ready to close or roll the short options before they become deep ITM. That way the scenario of early exercise need not actually occur.

you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how options pricing works. It is more likely your favorite stock drops 25% before an option is exercised early with so much time value premium.

>>61075937
Are you replying or is ChatGPTigger replying?

>>61075941
Oh lawd…

>>61075942
it is chatgpt

>Italy Industrial Production (M/M) Aug: -2.4% (est -0.4%; prev 0.4%)
>- Industrial Production WDA (Y/Y): -2.7% (est 0.6%; prev 0.9%)
>- Industrial Production NSA (Y/Y): -5.7% (prev 0.9%)

Pasta la vista

>>61075937
See >>61075754
People hedge with options, if they are leveraged and liquidated their broker will exercise any ITM options to offset losses as part of the liquidation process. You never know what position the other party is in

Ferrari has the best ticker of in context of their business

I invested in 3 stock so far and always with 100% my net worth. First one was FMCC(recommended by smg), sold for 3x and moved to ABB(my own research) lost 5-10% and missed out on fmcc gains. Then i went into cash for a few months. And now i am 100% in PLUG(recommended by smg)

>>61075298
What anime is this semen demon from?

>>61075967
how much did you make that you'll not spend on hookers though?

>>61075976
not gonna spend anything until I get to at least 7 digits

>>61075120
>im looking into concrete later to diversify away from ai too, still have to verify shit before i buy like why does a giant like Lafarge even bother dealing with a microcap
WYNN looks counter intuitively cheap to me. The market seems to have already priced in a recession.

>https://youtu.be/K3fKpOZ4Itc?si=CpouWkZB3mOfMf6E

AI bubble will explode when normies realize its only good for slop content while their electric and water bills keep rising to the point of no return

>>61075177
For a company like that tariffs would just affect capex, you can probably ignore them.

>>61075990
*yawns*
very orginal, havent heard that 1,000 times already.

>>61075156
I want to short coreweave again.
>>61075187
Trading is the first time in a decade I feel legitimately challenged daily. CS and software engineering was never enough. Man it feels great.

>>61075990
ok the helicopter cam with mario kart made me laugh

>>61075980
actually based. ganbatte kudasai

>>61075984
nuclearenergy
u
c
l
e
a
r
e
n
e
r
g
y

>Futures
>https://youtu.be/tVh9aMXW7-o?si=wJx-fZUhETg-jUZL

>>61075569
I had this at 90k a year straight out of college after inviting her to my studio apartment to listen to me playing ukulele. You just need charisma.

I am naked short nvidia

>>61076012
send nudes

>>61076010
>charisma
It's over

im naked without shorts on the couch

Repent.

>>61075965
the only criticisms of this strategy this thread has been, "What if pigs fly?" and not something reasonable like, "why would you ever think UPS stays around 85 for two months?" you never see this level of mental gymnastics for just tickers. Yeah, what if the stock tanks and you lose 50% of your investment? What then fucking loser? I see a lot of sneed when i've won every time. My max loss is defined as my debit, and that max loss is only obtainable via early exercise which is not a risk this far out. like, orders of magnitude lower than the stock simply moving too far away from the strikes. Such an odd fucking crowd of psedues. pic rel is my textbook I use for this. This position is just a call calendar spread and a put calendar spread.

all the ego posting about selling covered calls is free money and your are chad if you do it but
>oh nooo don't simulate owning 100 shares with a literal tool used to simulate owning 100 shares nooo it's like not even the same thing

it's just the average options bad crowd fear mongering things they don't know about.

>>61075772
This is why I like just writing vertical put spreads instead of straddles when I trade options.

My benis is uncircumcised naked resting on my balls and short on APLD

>>61076023
Why do you hate money?

Should I dump these at open or continue to be a greedy retard

>>61075980
I got laid off the other month from my job at a fortune 100 company. I'm loving it. FUCK corporate employment.

Although I've almost finished some ML SAAS app so I'm not really unemployed.

>>61075976
You guys don't do hookers? I was legit going to kill myself before I got into those.

>>61076049
>paying for sex
ugly, overweight, or both?

>>61076051
Neither it's just faster and easier and women never really love you anyway.

>>61076051
All women are whores

>>61076035
Why do you, buying the top of a massive bubble

God I can’t wait to open a bottle of good vodka. Nothing like boozetrading. By far my best moves this year has been smashed on a Friday night

>>61075972
>And now i am 100% in PLUG(recommended by smg)
I think you're making a number of mistakes here.

just live in Thailand. They got the best women. The most amazing women. Bigly.

>>61076082
this except w/ scotch

>>61075371
If it was they wouldn't be telling you this they just don't want you to have any equity in ai

>>61076024
>This position is just a call calendar spread and a put calendar spread
it is not without sense

>>61076100
I lived in Thailand. Even Brazilian and Columbian whores will lurk and seek you out.

reminder the new Chinese regulations on rare earth will kill the west, we are so fucking fucked, if you wanna make some money until the collapse invest into strayan/NA mining or every western mining corpo that does something in the sphere

>>61076024
If you factor in potential assignment the risk reward is heavily against you is all
Also if you sell an option and don't buy to close before 4PM on the expiration date the other party still has until 5:30PM ET to make the decision to excercise, so if you sold a naked option and it becomes ITM in that window of time you can get fucked that way

>>61076094
Its /smg/ fault then

>>61076037
take the loss mane

>>61076115
were trade partners though?
https://en.people.cn/

>>61076051
all women are whores

what 0DTEs are we buying on open fellow goyim? i havent degen gambled in a while and i want to drop $20 or less on something tomorrow. usually i just do SPY and flip a coin for put or call but checking if you guys have any insider jewish knowledge for me

>>61076132
NBIS 140C should print

>>61076117
thanks

>>61076117
I dont sell naked options, and that risk is equivalent to the risk nvda drops 20% in a day
>If you factor in potential assignment the risk reward is heavily against you is all
first of all, it's already factored in. second of all, no it isn't. there is not a meaningful assignment risk for another fucking month. like, a 0.001% probability, and unlikely to affect all of my 35 call calendar spreads at once.

AAAAAAH

>>61076115
$AREC American Resources - Rare earths
$IDR Idaho Strategic Resources - Rare earths
$UUUU Energy Fuels - Rare earths
$PPTA Perpetua Resources - Antimony
$UAMY United States Antimony - Antimony
$IPX IperionX - Titanium
$NB NioCorp Developments - Niobium & Scandium
$METC Ramaco Resources - Rare earths
$MTRN Materion Corporation - Beryllium
$CC Chemours Company - Titanium & Zirconium
$NICU Canada Nickel Company - Nickel & Cobalt
$TUNGF American Tungsten Corp - Tungsten
$WWR Westwater Resources - Graphite
$HGRAF Hydrograph Clean Power - Graphene

Is it a surprise that these are all either pumping or consolidating for another big pump?

GRRR IS MOONING

>>61076122
I'm +50% on SLV, check premarket
The question is do I dump this manipulated dogshit rock at open or be greedy

what's going to be more painful the financial crash from the ai bubble or society's adaptation of ai?

>>61076101
I like single malt scotch but it’s too heavy on me the next day desu

>>61076128
No bro, you missed the news. China are adding tariffs.

Its actually incredible how many people on /smg//got fudded out of options
Again
>in the money
>above or at support
>at least 30 days
>volume and OI in the hundreds
>have a strict profit goal and sell when you reach it no matter what
If its something shooting up you can just buy slightly out of the money but dont do 0tde unless theres massive volume like spy or spx.
Remember its not magic, you need someone to buy the bag so you can be up massively but forced to sell at bid if theres no liquidity.

I fink it's about that time bazra's

>>61076179
interesting. maybe drop it on account of it being peaked for too long so you'd do something else with your time?

>>61075155
R.I.P then.

>Trump didn't get the peace prize
>A Venezuelan did
Rip Venezuela. Trump ain't going to like this

Don't look now but silver is $51

Check silver spot price. China just woke up.

>>61075022
He's not 100% right but not 100% wrong either, as it assumes on top of this that 100% of the AI revenue will go to a single actor.
It won't.
Which makes the current valuations even more retarded.

>>61076230
Never seen backwardation like this. Comex December futures are still at $48.25

>>61075406
They are not higher, but we're only 10% away from them being at internet bubble valuations. I'm still expecting a SPY target to 7300-7500.

>>61076240
>Maybe the mythical short squeeze will occur
Just kidding, I'm only pretending to be a retarded person

witnessed

>>61076240
jeets buying the picotop

I just realized it's impossible to lose money in the market. All you have to do is not sell. Stocks only go up. The big short and related FUDs were made by Wall Street to increase the premium they receive from selling puts.

Silver 52 USD today?

>>61076251
I've been calling it the perpetual debt system for years. No one listens.

Especially now with bots and automation, it will take something catastrophic to really crash the market. We will get pull backs and bad sentiment yadda yadda. But the market can only go up because debt is going up.

>>61076255
I've been waiting to see $50 since I started buying silver 20 years ago. I'm in the future.

>>61076255
Only if futures goes above $50, otherwise we're going to get slammed back down on NY open.

the stop posting anon is back in this thread

>>61076261
Add literally EVERYONE in the planet investing / trading, mostly US equities. Hedgies must be really scared to short the last years, since billions of jeets/ europoors buying the dip can fuck them.

Spot GSR is at 78, but futures GSR still at 83. Crazy divergence.

>>61075022
>>61075176
>how is he wrong
He's assuming the only use case for AI is gooners generating porn in the privacy of their own basements.

The real money is going to be in licencing AI models to businesses. Replace a hundred tech support workers with an AI chatbot, how much is that worth per month? Probably more than $30. In fact it's probably more than $30k, and maybe even more than $300k.

>>61076274
>>61076261
Pajeets don't buy the dip, they buy 0dte options

>>61076204
I just buy 60-70 delta with 60-120 dte when it looks like price is starting to trend up

>>61075296
You cannot predict market movements on an intraday basis. It's mathematically impossible. You don't have any edge.

>>61076274
Wild. Wonder what it will take to really crash it....

Would china's economy really tanking affect the west that much? Sure we would correct down but would we also crash, I doubt it.

How about war. Ukraine and Gaza aren't affecting us at all. What kind of scale would it take?

>china clamps down on nvda chips
>this causes not only nvda to spike
>but also hood

seriously
what the fuck?

FIXING ME, NOT YOU
October 10
If somebody hurts us and we are sore, we are in the wrong also.

TWELVE STEPS AND TWELVE TRADITIONS, p. 90

What a freedom I felt when this passage was pointed out to me! Suddenly I saw that I could do something about my anger, I could fix me, instead of trying to fix them. I believe that there are no exceptions to the axiom. When I am angry, my anger is always self-centered. I must keep reminding myself that I am human, that I am doing the best I can, even when that best is sometimes poor. So I ask God to remove my anger and truly set me free.

Nobody is perfect anon. We all have emotions that can swing depending on market moves. When you are caused to anger, think how you can use the opportunity to fix yourself. How were you wrong? I exceeded my day trading margIn balance yesterday locking me out of trades. I got angry. But my anger stemmed from my own greed. Really, I needed to better understand my broker's rules before I made greedy trades. I paid and I learned and with God's help turned my anger into a teachable moment. See how He can help you in your trades today, anon.

Retarded question, anyone know of sites that estimate options prices premarket?
I'm gonna dump these SLV calls this price action is spooking me and I shouldn't be greedy

>>61076315
Just use an option calculator for your contracts at whatever premarket is
www.barchart.com/options/options-calculator

I have a new strategy for this retarded market. Just behave like a retard and make retarded decisions. When the market goes full retard you have to go with it.
>>61076100
SEA women are ugly

>>61076179
I'm thinking about switching to gold. It actually looks like it's still underpriced.

>>61076332
>SEA women are ugly
Eh. It depends on which ones. I'd say most are pretty than Chinese women.

>>61076274
>muh hedgies
end yourself, redditor

>>61076345
Nah while it think it would go up you're buying the picotop
Normies are waiting in line at JEWlery stores and GLD options are expensive.
All boomer rocks are manipulated to fuck, silver most of all

>>61076349
>Most dung beetles are prettier than cockroaches

>>61076357
>All boomer rocks are manipulated to fuck, silver most of all
If they're manipulated then there's arbitrage. I think silver is a little overpriced though. Also if silver is bad wtf is going on with platinum?

>>61076349
ladyboys

>>61076360
Yeah if you don't like Asians in general going to Thailand for sex is probably a bad idea. I grew up around a number of them and my first crush was this really lovely Filipino girl.

This 100 year old silver story rings true today

Please tell me a war with venezuela is going to pump my oil

>>61075172
>They will throw their AI models at you with discounts.
AI models are free *today.* Even Google will *host* theirs with an API for free.

>>61076378
Oil isn't going above $70 for a long time.

>>61076378
oil is a substantial part of my portfolio but dont expect wti to run up big in the next months

Spot Silver just hit $51 again

>>61076377
ill read it later thanks

APLD stop loss executed, now I am concerned I would miss price action on opening

>>61076383
YouTube used to be entirely free as well. Now you're routinely bombarded with cuckverts and "premium (sub)scriptions".

Google web services also aren't free if you're using their commercial services. Gotta pay the cuck fee for the back end.

Whats the plan today anon?
Im getting cold feet with the AI craze lately. I might take some profits soon and wait a few months or something.

>priced in
is it? I dont believe anything is priced in.

>>61076414
It’s crabbing

>>61075811
wtf based boomer kek

>>61076411
>YouTube used to be entirely free as well. Now you're routinely bombarded with cuckverts and "premium (sub)scriptions".
Are you watching youtube without adblock?
Also unless language suddenly gets orders of magnitude more complex we already have all the weights. It doesn't matter if they decide to start charging.

>>61076414
You will get left behind then FOMO into something retarded.

GM. This is the day.

>>61076430
You're arguing that a service that intrinsically consumes large amounts of electricity and high tech silicon is going to be given away free of charge.

Have a little think about how realistic that is in a world where you're now being served cardboard (microcrystalline cellulose) enhanced cereal, sandwiches and pies.

>>61076442
Where have you been? I thought you may have called out sick.

News on BMW has been net negative. Still no Porsche. Is Porsche the sacred cow?

Lmao I hate jews so fucking much

>>61076448
>You're arguing that a service that intrinsically consumes large amounts of electricity and high tech silicon is
Training does but that only has to be done once. Inference can be done on your phone. I run entire agents locally on my UMPC.

>>61076405
...but at least secured 1000 EUR after taxes 8-)

>>61076452
lol, lmao

i am here once again to remind you to buy intel, it's clearly going to 45

Uh, so when Israel gets their hostages back what stops them from just razing Gaza to the ground?

>>61076501
Nothing changed about their dogshit moneypit foundry though

>>61076508
I trade on vibes
>>61076506
nothing

>>61076512
>I trade on vibes
do the world and yourself a huge favor and from now on keep your dogshit opinions to yourself

I am once again losing money

>>61076517
stfu i fucked your mum last night and im your stepdad now and you are grounded

>>61076517
>not being a vibe trader in 2025
I am getting ick from this anon

>>61076484
wonder where to put it - re-enter APLD if it goes below 30EUR? BTGD also tempting, is it a good time to enter?

>>61076501
Indeed. The imminent release of panther lake could mark a very large turning point for US silicon in general.

>>61076539
BTGD should have a divvy coming up IIRC.

>>61076537
and and and stfu retard

>>61076512
>>61076501
based
>>61076508
>>61076517
discordant resonance

>>61076544
don't care about dividends desu

>>61076551
listen to me and youll make it
>>60795875

> xi decided to fuck my $KC play

stupid chinaman

>>61076539
I'm pretty sure any APLD sells today will immediately get slurped up. So I wouldn't risk trying to swing. If you want to enter, enter as soon as the market opens.

>>61076452
it won't matter
buyers in control today

getting good vibes from wkey and laes btw

How long until PLUG rugs again? Should i just get out while it's up and rebuy later when it looks like it's going somewhere?

>>61075494
...catgirls? https://youtu.be/1oZ4aKydbIY

>>61076611
>Pink ID
>Owning buttplugs
gay and nigger

>>61076574
thanks, was not thinking about swinging just about the possibility of a pump, which is I guess as probable as a dump and sideways motion. So not worth it

>>61076611
God damnit I just zoomed out on the chart for plug, this scam company has been around since the dot com bubble where it went from 1400 down to 0.

>>61076506
not a kike but its surprising how well their stocks are doing considering all the shit thats going on, even when the whole thing with iran was going on and everyone was talking about embargos

>>61076572
>my play
why do you spergs call it this? its called a bet
because youre just gambling

>>61076449
I'm working from home today so i can't bother checking biz much. I figure Porsche will post after market today. Amerifats could probably still trade.

yeah i truly see no way how this is not doing to be disastrous.

>>61076506
I thought they were gonna build hotels with Tony Blair

One of my breakfast nuggies fell on the ground.
Recession indicator?

>>61076702
>he has to buy more nuggies
Bullish

>>61076702
>>61076712
grow the fuck up.

where new smg

>>61076566
Then BTGD isn’t for you.

>>61076639
Tried warning you PLUGs for weeks. Enjoy your bags.

>>61076757
fine
i bake

Why does it ALWAYS dump during burger hours?

embarrassing bake

>>61076780

>>61076780

>>61076780

>>61076781
shameful

>>61076378
>>61076387
I just cut bait on around $20k of oil stocks in my folio yesterday.

So expect that shit to pump any second now