Thread 61145550

Gold came close but did not hit the target yet, so we still have higher to go I think. A lot of people also seem convinced the gold top is in, so I think this is a beartrap

>>61145550 (OP)

Most retarded 'TA' i've ever seen

its highly likely the silver top is in

>>61145554
Go ahead and ignore it then. I have multiple examples of how accurate it is in calling tops

>>61145560

Yet the shortage of refined remains. The refiners are bottlenecked. And 54 dollar silver convinced it seems absolutely nobody at the comex to part with even one ton.

Wild volatility ahead but top? Nope.

>>61145550 (OP)
so huh didn't it touch the red line of your pitchfork? what do you consider the top? explain to me like im retarded

>>61145570
I don't care about narrative

>>61145577
No it barely missed on the daily timeframe (by 5 dollars or so) and on the weekly timeframe it still didnt hit. So I don't have high confidence that the top is in yet. When the red line gets hit thats when I think the top is in with very high confidence

>>61145595
>the top isn't in because it was 5 dollars away from my meme line
>when it gets 5 dollars higher i have high confidence it's the top
> 5 dollars

dog....... you are retarded

>>61145628
Always hilarious seeing retards like OP thinking they can unironically time the market, which is run by multi billionaires and financial institutions that view you as less than a speck of dirt. Everyone's desperate to feel important and special I guess, lmao

>>61145644
I can show several examples of how accurate it is, but you can go ahead and disregard it. No problem for me. If anything it is good that people disregard it. That allows me to keep making money from retards. Enjoy holding your bags bro. I will screenshot this and have a good laugh in a few weeks

>>61145550 (OP)
I don't want the dollars and i don't want any other currencies at the moment. I would consider selling the gold to buy maybe a business or real estate or something.
Otherwise i think just keep buying gold until this works itself out.

>>61145711
You do you, but I don't want to hold during a 30% drawdown, especially not gold miners. I am bullish longer term however. I think we can certainly get to 10k gold this decade

>>61145721
Yeah i'll keep buying through that, if the price goes down that would be helpful of course.

>>61145724
I think we go back to the range we traded in during April to August eventually. Will be a very nice area to accumulate

>>61145741
I think this will play out somewhat like in 1970-1980. In 1975 gold saw a big top, but end of 1976 it started to gigamoon

>>61145741
>>61145743
yeah i mean again the price doesnt matter to me, but it doesnt matter to the central banks either, so we'll see if we're able to get a second chance to sell our dollars and euros for more gold but i wouldnt count on it.

>>61145756
It is true that central banks will keep buying, but there is also a lot of speculation involved and the current rally likely cannot be sustained for longer. But who knows, maybe it just smashes through my targets and I will have to eat my words

>>61145550 (OP)
Backtest your TA, use it on the 1970s bull run and show that it accurately predicted the 1980 top, and then show it predicting the 2011 top.

>>61145550 (OP)
>>61145560
>>61145585

Gold and silver easy 2x from here. Silver likely 3x.

They are US gov constitutional money.
Your narrative is retarded, you will be short squeezed .

https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-1/section-10/

I'll help you morons out: It's not hitting the top until you actually do something about inflation, the debt and the constant threats of trade wars. Until then, I'm going to just keep buying gold miners and making a truck load off of this stupidity.

>>61145764
>d and the current rally likely cannot be sustained for longer.
Buddy gold is US gov constitutional money.
And gold is the largest holding of the US gov, and also of a lot of other govs and central banks.
Yet, retarded boomers naked short sold both gold and silver literally for DECADES,
to suppress its price .
>probably to pretend that US dollar is strong vs. gold

If you decided to go short now, that what is likely this FED bank naked short is likely removed
>so that US gov can find actual gold market price and price its holdings
you will squeezed by a mother of all short squeezes that the market has ever known.

>>61145554
its not his first one either
he shits up the board almost daily

>>61146557
I agree that it will do very well, but that will be next year. This is clearly an euphoric push. Look what happened to gold and silver in previous bull cycles: a strong first half, then a 30% shakeout. Next half of the cycle it gigamoons. If you want to hold through the correction be my guest. Wishing you the best

>>61146493
1980 top is not possible, but i also showed an example of the previous silver top in this thread

>>61146804
>>61146870
>my model only works when I want it to

You're just sticking random lines until they meet up with your cognitive biases.

Here's my TA and I don't know fuck all about TA but it's still better than yours.

>>61146887
what are you talking about it? You used a different tool to begin with and the rules for these pitchforks are simple: first pivot is bullmarket bottom, next pivot is bullmarket top, last pivot is next bullmarket bottom.
>I don't know fuck all about TA
I can see that

>>61146905
Now here's the scary version, the crash in 08 was stopped with severe government intervention which created that cup in gold prices from 2012-2021. If you consider that the bull market in gold never ended and that were still in an extension of the run from the year 2000....

>>61145550 (OP)
whats the volume profile look like for between 2019 and now. That will tell you what the market movers are doing with there money and where. I dont care enough for bring up my charts kek.

>>61146927
*their

>>61146909
And where does the slope of your channel come from? That 50% line makes no sense in your analysis of 2020. And if 2020 was a trend reversal then your fork is not even applicable anyways.

>>61146927
The trading volume profile is irrelevant,
when the largest gold holders are governments and central banks,
and they buy in tons, and not retail who buys in ounces.

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/status-report-government-gold-reserve/u-s-treasury-owned-gold

>>61146493
I can show multiple examples for local tops too, but I have a feeling you will reject it anyway and act like there are no rules too it. You should at least do some research on a tool before you criticize me

>>61146939
the 2020 was the schiff pitchfork: this is usually the most conservative target and is an important top but usually not a bullcycle top. Once price breaks through you switch to modified schiff whcih will give higher targets and usually predicts a bullmarket top. If we go through that the original is in play, but usually it gives unrealistic targets on these multidecade pitchforks

>>61146947
You just said your tool doesn't work in the most important runs for gold, if you can't predict 1980 then you're saying that the market has fundamentally changed and this time is different.

This is the chart of dow jones VS gold. Severe government intervention in 2008 is what halted the crash from fully playing out like it did in all previous times and created that new trend line that were on. Notice how it took 4 years for their intervention to take effect.

>>61146493
the last thing I will say is just do a backtest of this tool yourself on multiple assets and on multiple timeframes and you will see how accurate it is. Just look up a tutorial on youtube or something

>>61146993
Just looked at the volume and order profiles. Yeah, everything is clustered below 4000. There is literally nothing holding it up past that except boomer fomo.

>>61146944
>thinks volume delta and order blocks are retail
sure thing patel.

>>61146993
I will, I'm testing everything before putting my money in. But look at this.

Same DJI/GOLD chart with trends and resistance bars and moving averages.

Whenever there is a death cross you get one of those epic runs like from 1970-1980. We didn't get one in 2020, the helicopter money they put out stopped the death cross from happening and put us into this trend channel. We've just broken below the trend channel because the tech bubble hid the real problems with the economy and the government didn't respond in time.

That's not to say they can't still reverse it and put us back into the trend channel, but what that means is that they MUST give helicopter money out again and that will cause inflation to keep skyrocketing.

There is no way out of this, either they go BRRRR which causes slow inflation of gold prices followed by sudden interest rate hikes which cause gold to skyrocket. Or they let it play out which causes gold to skyrocket as people flee to risk off assets.

>>61147023
So you are bullish on gold on the higher timeframe? I am too, but I think we are going to have a shakeout first caused by a stock market dump. I think this will play out like the previous bullcycles and its not going to be different: few years of upside, 30% or more shakeout and then gigamoon. But we will have to wait before we see which one of us right about the timing

>>61147007
Right, thats what I mean. This run is not sustainable, we will have a nasty shakeout to the april-august range at least

>>61145560
>File: Schermafbeelding 2025-10-(...).png

Holy kek what language is that

>>61147137
Dutch

>>61147087
I think so too, the last bubble peaked in october of 07 and gold kept running until february of 08 before a 25% selloff. The thing is though the S&P bottomed out exactly one year later and afterwards you might as well have put your money in the S&P because government intervention prevented a true crash from happening and a few years later it quickly outperformed gold.

It's interesting how similar the chart for gold from back then looks compared to now. We should have a small correction from now to end of the year if were on the same timeline, I'm guessing people got cold feet after the massive run up and they waited to see if the S&P really had topped before jumping into gold.

>>61146919
Where does gold open and close on monday?

>>61148275
Wait a minute, this time looks different.

I think gold already had its 5% november sell off... last year. If you take out the tech bubble then the real economy should have peaked last year which would explain why gold has been running up since 2024 and we would've seen gold do a 30% selloff this year, but then trump caused a panic selloff of stocks which propped up the gold price...

I need data of the SPX with the MAG 7 removed to confirm. I think we already had our first leg of the bullrun and this time is going to be different from 2008.

>>61145550 (OP)
The top is the same as then fren

>>61148395
Yeah but then where do people flee to when the stock market fails to go higher? The dollar?

Fuck what a scary thought.

>>61148407
>the dollar will forever depreciate away
>the stock market is at all time highs
>the precious metal market is at all time highs
>the crypto market is at all time highs
There isn't an asset to flee to, the end of the everything bull market is the everything bear market.

>>61148395
Nice chart, thanks for showing this
Out of curiosity, does 1980 look similar?

>>61148444
Hell no, 1980 is way higher, but I can't see it doing that again.

it's the gold rush of the century, gold isn't going down any time soon as QE and rate cuts are ahead, not to mention the uncertainty around the market and the crypto FUD.

>>61148415
That doesn't make any sense. Something has to soak up the dollars they keep printing.

>>61148395
This makes sense when you look at DJI/GOLD >>61146979
, we're at the same LOG trendline as from the 2012 bottom, but the government hasn't intervened yet and the stock market hasn't started crashing yet. This looks like we're headed towards the 1970's.

>>61148407
I think so yeah, because we might see a short period of deflation. Probably not a popular narrative, but thats what I think

>>61148454
>Something has to soak up the dollars they keep printing.
Over the long term yes, over the short term this is not necessarily true. If everyone sells to the dollar/treasuries in a everything bear market, then everything except the dollar/treasuries will fall even if long term they will rise back up.

>>61148454
bonds

>>61148464
Demand for treasury bonds is on the decline

>>61148472
It will outperform in a market crash and deflation

>>61148485
Then why is Morgan Stanley switching their investment narrative from 60/40 equities & bonds to 60/20/20 equities, bonds & gold?

If there's a massive equities crash, why would everyone flood into bonds if they see gold is outperforming the bond returns?

If they wanted to attract investors into bonds again, they would need to raise rates. But raising rates would just cause further economic depression. This is a Chinese finger trap.

>>61148505
In the initial phase of a crash it will all fall. Investors may be forced to sell gold as they need liquidity

Something is not right here, the end outcome they want is a CBDC. They need to cause a panic away from physical things, maybe they'll do a 1980 and crash it like they did to boomers to scare the new generations away from gold for the rest of their lives?

>>61148526
They'd mostly be selling electronic leveraged positions of gold, not physical gold. Physical buying pressure from the east is something present now that wasn't present in the 80s & 2011 crashes.

>>61148528
That will probably be at the end of the decade then, or beginning of next decade

>>61148539
That is true, and it could soften the blow

>>61148555
If you consider that the ETFs are just electronic shorts against physical gold, and those "shorts" are sold off, that removes resistance on upward price direction afterward for the real product.

>>61148528
the jews know that a major CME capable of breaking down all the electonics and data centers in the world they just don't know when it gonna happen exactly, in my estimate they're not trying to time it but instead they're waiting for it to pass and then rebuild everything according to their preconceived agenda and start the CBCD.

I think what you'll end up seeing is a gradual decoupling of physical gold and silver prices away from New York and London's price structuring. London might end up losing control completely and you're left in a world where New York and Shanghai are controlling metals prices in their own spheres of influence in a bipolar world.

If you've been paying any attention to London's free-float silver market these last few weeks, they had a little heart attack moment where 1 month lease rates skyrocketed to 40% for a bit and the future/spot prices were not in contango, off by as much as $3/oz. It's like watching a legendary athlete jogging along and clutching his chest all of a sudden. He's still alive, but you know he's not an athlete anymore and probably doesn't have much longer.

>>61148395
Thanks for the idea m8, I did the same thing with the spx............................................................................................................................

So stocks have officially topped. Gold has topped. Digital tulips have topped, houses have topped, women have topped....

I guess I'm going to be sitting in cash.

>>61145550 (OP)
it's reversing

>>61145554
he said bitcoin to 200k

USD is being devalued. This is like saying gold is about to top in 1920s germany

>>61146493
Backtesting is fucking stupid.
TA is an art or technique not a hard set of rules.

>>61148732
That was another anon. I am a little bit more bearish on bitcoin myself. First I need to see it break 130k convincingly to believe 200k is in play

>>61145560
>could have bought at $12 spot around 2020 but didnt
REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE DELET THIS!!!!

if TA works, why aren't you guys billionaires?

>>61150221
Its probably going back to 25-30 next year. After that it will moonshot to 100 dollars and beyond

>>61150250
Was gonna get my family some 1oz rounds for Christmas. Should I hold off or is now likely the best time before early December to buy?

>>61150277
I would say you can get it for less if you wait a month, because I think silver has topped. I am very confident about this. However, there is always a small chance I am wrong about it. So keep an eye on the price. If silver closes a weekly candle at 60 or higher the top is not in

>>61145550 (OP)
Are banks dumping gold? That's all the "TA" I need.

>>61145550 (OP)
down 3% its nothing.

>>61146887
Thats a nice 10 year bull run.