>>150307293 (OP)
Zootopia 2 is the default frontrunner for now. It's Disney, so that's an automatic contender unless it faceplants and it won an Oscar before. There are also two films from the Annecy Festival that could comfortably be nominated: ARCO and Little Amélie.
Netflix, which has become a regular contender in this category every year, has the film In Your Dreams, or it might be nominated for KPop Demon Hunters. The music branch of the Academy is notoriously cliquey, but a certified Billboard hit gives them no excuse to ignore you.
Pixar has a long history with the Academy, so I think Elio has a comfortable spot for nomination.
If there IS a Japanese anime film that *might* get nominated, it would still be Scarlet. It was met with mixed reception in Venice, but Venice was also booing Fight Club and it still got nominated. It just needs better reception from TIFF and NYFF. It also drops on December so it's still fresh in voters' minds and eligible for major awards. Additionally, Hosoda has clout, being nominated for Mirai.
Shounenshit never had any chance there, because they're not standalone and their format are not built got theaters. They're really just TV episodes.
I think for the ones who'll be nominated for Best Animated Feature are:
>Zootopia 2
>KPop Demon Hunters
>ARCO
>Little Amélie
>Elio
Sequel movies rarely ever win the Oscars because the Academy generally prefers original, standalone films rather than follow-ups. So for that, I think KPop Demon Hunters will win this even though Zootopia 2 looks to be the favorite.