>>212670530china already has a bulge in the alpha pipeline that is a bigger generation than zoomers. and by 2050 the number of retirees per 100 will still be less than what japan has in the current year.
if you look at china's degree of urbanization, it was 29% in 2000 and 66% in 2023. comparatively in the US it's 82% and in japan it's 91%, so china's urban population still has a ways to go. urban workers are also 4 times more productive than rural workers to the economy.
china could have run into some problems like japan in the 1990s however Japan started growing old when AI wasn't a thing.
the most brvtal trvthnvke is that everything aligned perfectly for China. Its demographic dividend (large young population) swept up the manufacturing on the planet in the 90s-2000s. it's now beginning to reap the intellectual dividend from millenials and zoomers who are much more educated than their parents, who have better access to nutrition and healthcare, who are now driving the innovation for BYD, DJI, Huawei, Deepseek, Unitree, etc, companies guided in industrial policty and strategic long term planning by the CPC.
the more advance industrialization and intellectual dividend of today will facilitate their fourth industrial revolution of automation as their blue collar force is retiring over the next decades. the 2030s and 2040s is when they will begin to reap the benefit of the AI/automation dividend. goldman sachs predicts up that to 50% of jobs could be fully automated by 2045, driven by generative AI and robotics.
the ML state structure also gives China a unique position to transition peacefully and strategically towards the realization of a mature socialism (2049) and toward the material foundation necessary for realizing communism. common prosperity will be achieved!