lets be real, if a shithole like iran can china would absolutely do it for a unified china thats the maximum goal in the near future

>>63861739 (OP)
I don’t think China would launch ballistic missiles at Taiwan, they’re their fellow Chinese after all. The US bases in Guam, Okinawa, and the Philippines would probably get hit by hundreds of ballistic missiles though.

>>63861739 (OP)
Iran can't, anon, but the circumstances are far different anyways and Taiwan is likely to end up like Iran in this situation re; air and information dominance plus ambitious sabotage efforts

>>63861753
isn't really the case either as the leadup to war shifts American posture and sorties are both generated within and without the range of Chinese MRBMs. It's hard to hit aircraft on the ground with MRBMs as you've got to mass for attack to get through defenses and said massing is visible to ISR, and airfields themselves are not easy to knock out with temp shops and fueling plus runway reparing (alternative expeditionary basing as well) available

>>63861739 (OP)
China can try, but he big question is how the US would respond to the mother of rocket salvos thrown at them and Taiwan. No idea if this is a good idea lol. The yanks chimped out over 2 towers and a few dead bankers. Imagine what they'll do once expensive wargear, soldiers and friendly civvies get turned into paste.

>>63861739 (OP)

Anon, Taiwan also has missiles and the Chinks are so regarded that they built the largest dam in history in the middle of their country without considering the strategic implications, because they are a shit-hole dictatorship were you can't tell your boss that his ideas are regarded or you get killed.

If the Chinks chimp out like you say, Taiwan shoots all his missiles at the Three Gorges Dam and up to 400 million chinks get fucked in the ass, including their most important cities. China collapses after that and the US bombs the ashes, just out of spite.

>>63861739 (OP)
And so would be everything in ching chong land.

>>63861739 (OP)
What would be the win for PRC in this hypothetical? China can't control her shipping, so that would end in a jiffy. They're gonna sell through intermediaries? Not even remotely possible on the scale they operate.
I'm not saying they can't go full Putin, but as far as I've seen from them nothing suggests that.

>>63861739 (OP)
>lets be real, if a shithole like iran can-
They didn't.

>>63861753
they believe that Taiwan is rightful Chinese clay.
and if we try to intervene, they will shut down our electric grid.

>>63861937
>the Chinks are so regarded that they built the largest dam in history in the middle of their country without considering the strategic implications
what the fuck should they have done? not build infrastructure to support their economy?

Say china takes taiwan completely unscathed, with a full US pullout back to japan, with only one in twenty US AShM hitting their boats, and only one in ten TBMs hitting ground targets, with all US launches ceasing one day after D-day due to said US pullout, AND a dead Us carrier just to complete the fantasy. China gets a couple factories and rare earth metals in exchange for tens of thousands of their rapidly dwindling working aged men dead, the entire planet hating their guts except poverty juntas like russia and iran and whatever, mass sanctions on the chips they can now make, a gradually building US hateboner from the alamo-tier loss of the carrier resulting in some kind of american act of violence against them in the near future. Thats the absolute best winning situation in taiwan. Now consider how unlikely an outcome THAT generous is.

>>63862031
Unironically yes. We need to depopulate mother earth before climate change makes our little blue home uninhabitable.

>>63861753
>I don’t think russia would launch ballistic missiles / do mass killings / create child torture chambers at ukraine, they’re their fellow slavs after all.

>>63861753
What's the plan for that, anyway? THAAD might deal with the first 30 or so on a good day, maybe another 20 with a couple of Patriot batteries with PAC-3s, but after that? There's like 15 aircraft shelters in Okinawa air base in total, everything else goes to open air parking

>>63862035
>the entire planet hating their guts
Is that what CNN and Foxnews tells you would happen? Lmao

Why would most of the world care that an American expeditionary fleet lost a few of their carriers trying to stop China from finally ending its civil war?

>the alamo-tier loss of the carrier resulting in some kind of american act of violence against them in the near future.
China isn’t Japan. America dwarfed Japan’s industrial capacity, that was why it lost. China dwarfs America’s industrial capacity, it won’t win a war against China in the Western pacific. Americans can cope and seethe as much as they want.

>>63861778
Right now US won't do shit as they are afflicted with the orange brain tumor. As agent orange is TACO

if changs want to break their teeth on Taiwan these four years are the right time

>>63862035
Nuking Formosa wouldn't aid our PRC boys much further either two or three eventual moves further.
PLA people are not like Putinbots. They can actually do the maths. Which is one of the reasons you're not seeing a normandy times 20x buildup in mainland. We always tell Taiwan to get serious with their defense, but maybe they're right to live large not thinking about defending the island.

>>63861739 (OP)
you should work to understand your enemy before drafting any scenarios. They “could” do it, and US “could” also glass Nato countries before they become a threat since they are no longer fully invested in US MIC

>>63861778
>The yanks chimped out over 2 towers and a few dead bankers.
That took place in the most culturally relevant city in the USA, killed thousands of Americans, and was explicitly an attack on the USA as an entity per Bin Laden. Of course they were pissed. It was an attack on them.
Nobody in America will experience the same level of rage if Taiwan were getting bombed. Expect thoughts and prayers, and 加油台灣! on people's Facebook pages. Joe Public doesn't give a fuck about some dead Asians.

>>63862068
The rest of the word would care to a small degree about that and a much larger degree about the autnonomy and safety of the taiwanese people being crushed by a widely unpopular nation among the “running water” world. There was wide lip service support of the hong kong situation and that was both legal and largely nonviolent on chinas end, this would be a high casualty hot war just to oppress and island with an international presence. America has better planes, better ships, better special forces, ten times as many satillites, many many more allies, if you dont think america is remotely capable of giving china a serious black eye youre delusional.

>>63862063
The plan is the second a ballistic launch is detected out of China aimed at rightful US soil we send our entire nuclear arsenal at them.

>>63862073
why is there a jew in a dunce cap in the corner
are jews responsible for wars

>>63862085
you type like a faggot

>>63862089
>detected out of China aimed at rightful US soil we send our entire nuclear arsenal at them.
The bases in Japan are not extraterrestrial, anon.
An aircraft carrier or the embassy are but the bases are Japanese soil with Japanese laws and immigration applying to them.
There's a lot of red tape to separate the folks stationed there from the realities of Japanese law but ultimately every inch of Okinawa is legally Japanese land.

>>63862103
>The bases in Japan are not extraterrestrial, anon
Ayyy lmao

>>63862063
Realistically, dispersal. Aircraft that are ready are scrambled airborne, ones on the ground are stored far away from each other so the Chinese need near-realtime information on plane location and need to expend a missile per plane, which drains their IRBM arsenal.

>>63861753
>they’re their fellow Chinese after all
The worst enemy a Chinese can face is another Chinese.
t. Chink

The problem with Taiwan are not the cities. It's the fucking mountains (aka 90% of the country). If you think Vietnam was bad, taking this country will be even worse and it will take years.
IF...IF Taiwan wants to fight back. I honestly think that if they face a full ground invasion they will just surrender.

>>63861753
Ah so just like Russia and Ukraine, they would be greeted as liberators. I see. I see.

>>63862080
They bombed the Twin Towers in the early 90's as well. Nobody cared then. Because it didn't do much. But anon's particular scenario is involving US bases being hit by Chinese missiles, which they would care about.

>>63862035
The Europeans will bow to China to retain access to their markets. The global south is already mostly pro-China and if not, a few bribes will keep them on side. China's neighbors might act tough but behind the scenes, they'll also keep their heads down because their biggest protector just lost.

>>63862143
>>63862144
That's the major unknown. It's different than Ukraine. Taiwanese of fighting age grew up in relative comfort and the closest they've gotten to a gun is vidya. Imagine what would happen to a large group of Gen Z if you were cut their internet, water, and power.

>>63862143
yeah, a problem the Taiwanese also gave up on. There’s a reason why everyone is on the sliver of the west coast and don’t bother with the mountains.

>>63862182
>Imagine what would happen to a large group of Gen Z if you were cut their internet, water, and power.
They'd probably try and kill the people who did that. People, even coddled people, tend to riot when you start taking away their creature comforts. Especially when the people who cut you off from internet, water and power also want to put you under an oppressive regime full of "reeducation"

>>63861739 (OP)
>>63861753
If the Philippines took out the Three Gorges Dam in retaliation, would China attempt to double-level Manila?

Is the Taiwan army even big? How is their AA? Anti ship capabilities?
If they just think that "well, US will probably save us" they are fucked under Trump

>>63862031
Maybe dont be retarded chimps to people that can end you if this is the case

>>63862044
good point. Maybe the chinese are not such sick animals. Maybe ?

>>63862085
>that was both legal
It wasn't legal, not under the 1997 Treaty they signed with the UK (under the threat of genocide AND tricking the UN).

>>63861739 (OP)
If they attack Taiwan, they attack Singapore. Singapore has permanent military presence in Taiwan, the only nation to have any military presence at all in Taiwan. This will immediately drag the AUKUS into the war due to super loose terms... muh "strategic partner" muh "immediately consult". This is all strategic ambiguity and was worded that way to give the west the option to fuck Taiwan over and let China have them. China won't risk attacking Taiwan, unless they manage to get Singapore to fuck off from Taiwan. They tried that last time and Singapore basically told them to fuck off. China blocked shipment of armored vehicles en route back to Singapore from Taiwan via Hong Kong in a temper tantrum. I think this was like 15 years ago. Might have changed now but I doubt it.

The moment Singapore announces departure from Taiwan though, thats when you know Taiwan is about to be annexed.

>>63861753
i cant help but agree with anon
remember the Han Chinese regard themselves as extremely civilized even more so than the west
they will find a way to subvert taiwan before they risk destroying it

>>63862247
That would take decades. (Remember HK)
Xi wants a legacy and his time is running out

>>63862255
Xi isn't Trump.

>>63861739 (OP)
>in ping pong ching chong land we ping pong ching chong and cope about an island like 100 miles away we can do nothing about

>>63862230
They only have WW2 guns for anti ship capabilities and no jets. Anti air is literally bofors. China will easily take it anytime it wants.

>>63862007
They did

>>63862271
He's worse. And smarter

>>63862224
So China can take it easily. Nobody wants to fight a war. China is also highly trained and experienced it'll be suicide which the west cheers with their meat wave tactics.

>>63862278
You mock them but they turned a shitty fucking fishing village of 3 run down houses and a half dug well into Shenzhen in a couple of decades the moment Deng Xiaoping decided to stop fucking around and asked Lee Kuan Yew for advice. They are not the same goat herders or street shitter we faced. I wouldn't underestimate them. The MIC and neocons agree with my sentiment. China is only getting stronger and stronger.

>>63862289
Wuh.
They have harpoons and a smattering of other anti-ship missiles, they have guided ballistic missiles, they have torpedoes, they have patriots pac 2 and 3s, Sky Bows, Land Sword 2s, about a billion manpads, etc.

There are many deficiencies in the Taiwanese military but you're either completely ignorant of what they operate or like, some weird chang shill.

>>63862333
China has bootleg f-35. I don't think Taiwan stands a fucking chance.

>>63862094
it's Türkiy ya dingus
The Ottoman Empire, known colloquially as "the sick mam of Europe"

>>63862305
Well said.

>>63862310
>we
>underestimate
>goat herders
You see the same lines enough and you start to noooootice the same chink script

>>63861739 (OP)
Thing is, China wants all the cool infrastructure Taiwan has. They keep stealing their data but it's just not enough.

>>63862368
This. Its so fucking obvious. No one but chinks give a shit about the turdie shithole on the brink of collapse. China is a paper tiger on an even more extreme scale. China will fold like their stupid origami in a real conflict. Their navy are just fishing trawlers and their carriers are cracked and rusted.

>>63862246
It took 2 YEARS for russia to put her troops in place to invade ukraine. That was their fucking NEIGHBOR.
Do you have any idea how much preplanning PLA would need to do anything to Taiwan?

I live on this Island and here nobody agrees to one thing except that :
If the US isn't going to help us. We'll surrender.
Everything else is really dependent on the person you ask but nobody thinks we can 1v1 china

>>63862402
China isn't Russia.

>>63861753
Kino, but not as kino as the US over reaction

>>63862271
Right, Xi actually has power.

>>63861765
>sorties are both generated within and without the range of Chinese MRBMs

MRBMs have ranges of several 1000km, fighter planes several 100km.
That's the entire point: The US is outranged in the pacific since china is going for autistic fucktons of range on all systems.

>It's hard to hit aircraft on the ground with MRBMs as you've got to mass for attack to get through defenses

What defenses? A patriot battery per island? Even the shitty iranian ballistic missiles made it past what, 3 carrier strike groups worth of aegis, 6 US air bases in syria and iraq worth of patriot and THAAD, US carrier aviation, USAF fighters, hell even fucking british and french fighters with even the germans pitching in tankers? And the entire iron dome complex which includes THAAD equivalents, not just cheap shitty interceptors for cheap shitty rockets.

China doesn't have outdated crap like Iran that's 1960's ballistic missile tech, they got hypersonic glide vehicles.

You can maybe decently protect 1 island group, not dozens in 3 island changes 3000km apart. Attacker's advantage here is huge.
Also you do not destroy the planes. You destroy the fuel depot. Airfield without fuel is pretty damn useless.
Ships take days to get there and china has anti-ship ballistic missiles and yeah they'll use one to nuke the tanker trying to resupply the island.

>massing is visible to ISR

MRBM ranges are so high they can be launched from all over china and hit withhin 10 minutes. Too little preparation time to do anything about it.


>and airfields themselves are not easy to knock out with temp shops and fueling plus runway reparing (alternative expeditionary basing as well) available

If your enemy can't see what you're doing and you have the depth of ocean, sure. But china has ISR satellites in orbit and fucking huge HALE drones, they can target any resupplies to the islands and pick them off before they arrive.
You would have to disable hundreds of chinese satellites in LEO.

>>63862410
They are, under the billions spent on propaganda and the culture barrier it's still a soviet regime

>>63862432
>soviet regime
kek. youre a chink shill

>>63862403
>We'll surrender.
Retarded approach. Should instead build thousands of ballistic missiles and nukes.

>>63862123
Might work on Guam where the distances are higher, but Okinawa is within range of basically everything and the flight time is like 5 minutes

>>63862431
Which would induce Kessler Syndrome and might take out starlink and starshield which are in the same orbits.

>inb4 implessive

Look i'm not saying CHINA NUMBER ONE, it's just china has purpose build something to counter US efforts in the pacific and the US hasn't really been doing much about it, but rather procured systems suitable to beat up third world countries with old soviet shit like relatively short ranged F-35 and F-18 multirole planes, meanwhile china has specialised long-range air-to-air plattforms.
The constant statements from the current US administration that china is a huge threat and the mass cancellation of various ongoing procurements should be an indicator that US policy was not suitable to oppose china in the pacific on even footing. Time will tell if they have a viable new approach that is.

>>63862403
If you guys worked a lot harder on fluffing our pols you'd get the (almost) Israel treatment.
Lobbying, trips for lawmakers, big political "wins" for the President to tout. China has none of this because they are so arrogant they don't care what gweilo think. I hate AIPAC but trust me, they'll invite you there first-class, five-star hotel, all expenses paid, 2+ girls waiting for you in your room with BIG KHAZAR MILKERS, a suitcase full of money, etc. Do that and we'll let you have nukes probably.

>>63862437
communist china in inherently soviet in nature and anybody with experience of USSR can easily agree to that, it's just that chinx spent less time under administrative economy and were smart enough to allow some market economy elements to avoid fucking themselves too much

>>63862446
And for the record I'm disgusted by corruption and AIPAC's strangehold on us, but it works and other countries should follow their lead. Taiwan is relatively-rich and developed; if Israel can do it so can you.

>>63862071
>TACO
go.
back.

>>63862447
+1000 social credit score

>>63862439
The US literally made us stop our nuclear program wtf are you talking about. It was the worst mistake of our history.
>>63862446
That's probably what we are doing by giving you the industrial output of tsmc on your soil. Many people in Taiwan suggest that it was a "secret protection deal". We believe that we are too "important" for you and losing us would instantly collapse NVIDA APPLE AMD GOOGLE MICROSOFT ect ect because the Chinese would then control the chip market in majority. Your only hope if you lose Taiwan would be Korea, but if you lose control over the Taiwan straight, Korea will be hard to defend.

>>63862477
>The US literally made us stop our nuclear program
Yes, and it's time to reverse that decision

>>63862456
sad, but true though

>>63862483
Are you retarded ? Don't you read the news ? That would be a casus belli for China just as it was for Israel. We would lose all the support from white girls from the news because making nukes is le bad. And for your knowledge, our military is full of Chinese spies because we are literally the same exact race. So making it under our mountains isn't even possible
>Captcha PO(o)MAN

>>63862483
History has shown that this is an unwise decision.
see: Ukraine, Libya, South Africa, Taiwan for negative examples
see: Israel, North Korea, Pakistan for positive examples

>>63862505
>That would be a casus belli
That's a cuck construct. Casus bellies don't matter and don't exist in reality. When the aggressor wants to attack they just do it under obvious BS pretenses.

>>63862514
Wrong. It's a good example: those who made nukes aren't invaded, those who did not are.

>>63862505
It's not full of spies and most of the time it's misinformation like their carrier or j 20
The spent trillions on the j 20 unaware it wasn't stealth until it was built

They arent russian level stupid but close.

>>63862342
>bootleg F-35
so its what the reformers wish the F-35 was?

>>63861739 (OP)
China might kill a bunch of civilians, but the world will collectively condemn their actions and a full embargo by EU and America will be the bare minimum.
China could have 30,000 missiles launched at Taiwan, the only way they're taking that island is if they can manage to land 250k pairs of boots on the ground with armor and logistical support.
That's why China isn't in any hurry, if the USA decides to land a MARSOC regiment and a few MEUs on Taiwan they're not going to take it.

>>63861739 (OP)
3000 missiles for one city wouldn't be enough to do lasting damage, let alone spread out over multiple cities.

>>63862237
History suggests otherwise.

>>63862063
Disperse, let them hit the runway an empty hangars, repair as fast as possible, resume operations.

>>63862528
Non stealth, maintenance hog, can only make 2 or 3 a month that work cost 150 million even with slave labor, shakes bad at high speeds and can't turn above 700 kph without wings ripping off.

>>63862085
the rest of the world doesn't give a single fuck about Taiwan, they only cares about benefit

>>63861739 (OP)
>lets be real, if a shithole like iran can

It would appear it can't.

>>63862063
Everything's ready to scramble. If China attacks Okinawa that's an act of war, and we take the leash off Japan and let the Philippines know we're going to be in town for a couple weeks.

>>63862609
>we take the leash off Japan
Lmao, you turned Nips into a slave race and expect them to be your hound once you need them ? That's not how it works. Japan does not have the politics or even the human capital required for war. If China attacks, they'll strike an armistice and imitate the ostrich.

>>63862237
>the chinese are not such sick animals
given how Chinese wars played out historically, they're worse

>>63862305
>smarter
Xi is likely dumber than Trump.

>>63861739 (OP)
Australia, Japan and the rest of the Pacific can fend off China. The USA can go hunting the illegal Chinese fisheries. China will undergo an implessive decisive Tang victory, with their citizens killing each other for longpig during the entire shitshow.

>>63862658
He's already gotten fatter than him.

>>63862674
So Xi is 72. We’re approaching the age where we start to realize that mental acuity is decreasing. Everything will be fine with Xi until it’s not, and then things get interesting, because he has no real heir apparent, only toadies.

And we'll fire 3000 missiles back. Considering the gulf in building safety standards between the two countries the Chinese will suffer more.

You'll see, probably by the end of September all things considered

>>63861753
Targeting military infrastructure isn't same as targeting general public

China cares more about geopolitics than Iran. Indiscriminate action like this would get them blacklisted and shunned worldwide.

>>63862774
Not only would China face an embargo but a blockade through Malacca and Panama. This means their oil and food imports stop.
Chinese people can always eat their kids like the last time this happened but with the one child policy there are fewer kids.

>>63861739 (OP)
>China wastes their whole ballistic missile arsenal bombarding civilian buildings (the people themselves are safe in the massive bunker network)
>USN sails in and sinks the whole chinese fleet because china is now out of the missiles
Excellent plan from chinkies

>>63862073
Puck is great

>>63862073
lmao

>>63862798
still shocked it went out of business
TWICE

>>63861753
>I don’t think China would launch ballistic missiles at Taiwan, they’re their fellow Chinese after all
True, China has no history of civil war.

>>63862182
>and the closest they've gotten to a gun is vidya
most of the people fighting in the ukrainian army are the same

>>63861753

>>63862937
Chinese people are like auxiliary rations.

>>63862456

Trumpie got his fee fees hurt.

>bruh, tf the chinks gonna do against the might of the US army?

>>63862774
>>63862779
You really think anyone but the US is going to blockade China over Taiwan?
Russia is doing a 1900s style war of aggression and only NATO countries actively sanction them. Now imagine if a country that actually matters were to do it over an island most of the world doesn't even know is not a part of China

>>63863074
>its just the us navy

>>63863063
meanwhile, the last time china was in a war they invaded a neighbor literally right next to them that was like 1/50th the size, and still got their asses kicked

>>63863074
Imagine a country that matters getting it's surface ships bodied by long range strike bombers while they wait for fuel that isn't coming.

>>63863131
>imagine the chinese getting the bombers off the ground

>>63861739 (OP)
Any military move China realistically makes towards Taiwan is cost prohibitive. If they launch missiles that hit the civilian populace they end up with a hostile populace which is the opposite of what they want. If they blow up the microchip plants they fuck up the world economy which results in economic losses far exceeding any gains. They have 40 million military aged males without any prospect of reproduction to burn but if Taiwan can just shutter themselves up in the mountains and rain down artillery fire, drones, etc. on the invaders it can inflict mass casualties which are always a demoralizing impact. Like seriously I can’t fathom why they even give a fuck about this island.

>Taiwan this Taiwan that
False premise. Our interest in Taiwan has nothing to do with Taiwan itself, its chip foundries, tech, statehood, etc.
A confrontation with China risks nuclear war which no matter how slight there is a 0% we would do so just for Taiwan.

Yet, we are guaranteed to have an armed conflict with the CCP if they make a move on Taiwan.
>>63863074
>You really think anyone but the US is going to blockade China over Taiwan?
Again a false premise, nobody is doing anything "over Taiwan", least of all the United States. We'll do "jack" and "shit" for Taiwan, as will the rest of the region and world for that matter.

We will, however, do everything to shut the CCP out of the first and second island chains. As will most regional players along side us and aligned to that goal.

Every time, 100% of the time, from now until the end of those states and our own. The CCP will never be permitted as the power of the Pacific. Taiwan is the tripwire to a regional conflict and a signal that the fight has started. Nothing more, and nothing less.

>>63863182
Taiwan isn't about Chips, it's about the Chinese eunuch getting his cock and balls back. China isn't building a massive military to take Taiwan, and their ambitions don't end with Taiwan. China wants the whole of SEA including SK and Japan.

>>63862442
Okinawa is far away enough to warrant IRBM instead of TBM or SRBM usage (meaning DF-21 for the chinese). Operational dispersal works better with early-warning of course, but it can be done in the weeks before the attack if the intelligence is up to date.

In my opinion, there is a naturally asymmetric escalation tree regarding Taiwan. A full on Chinese attack involving BM strikes on US airbases in the region might well be met with a nuclear strike, par that, extreme actions such as mining chinese harbours, declaring an embargo, unrestricted submarine warfare etc. China depends on trade (to the extent of not producing enough calories to feed their population) and has a very weak blue water navy. In an almost-nuclear war the US can leverage their position by threatening to sink every single ship headed to Chinese ports.

>>63862387
total. coping. delusion.
lmao.

>>63861739 (OP)
At 150km range, there's no need for ballistic missiles. China would be able to throw literal millions of drones, rocket artillery and cruise missiles at Taiwan if they wanted to.

>>63863275
Taiwan would just smile and take it like an oversized Iwo Jima.
We threw so much artillery at that island and did nothing but churn the rubble. When the PLARF launches everything it has and fails to degrade the fighting capabilities of the Taiwanese military, it will be a waste of good munitions.

>>63863302
China has mapped the island for literal decades at this point. They're gonna to be hitting infrastructure like power plants, ports, radars, military bases etc etc first, not level population centers. They got the entire island so infiltrated and well mapped that they will be hitting important targets even if they are blind.

Taiwan is retarded btw, they import like 90% of their fuel, mostly coal and natural gas, but they shut down their nuclear power plants despite their crippling dependence on maritime imports for fuel. Nuclear plants not only free up fuel dependence, but they are also a politically sensitive target to hit, hence why Russia has avoided targeting Ukraine's nuclear plants. Taiwan also imports a lot of their food. A chinese blockade will starve Taiwan out within months and targeted strikes on their energy infrastructure and ports will shut down the entire country for years if they don't get the imports needed to rebuild.

You can't compare an island staffed with hardcore jap soldiers to an island of 98% civilians.

>>63861753
>they’re their fellow Chinese after all
Have you seen what they do to fellow chinese? Absolute retard

>>63861778
Every military target within 400 miles of the coast gets JASSM/Tomahawk spammed.

>>63861739 (OP)
>another china stronk cope thread
50 cents really do buy you a lot

>>63862143
>>63862182
I know a Tawainese dude, we play wargames online together, the hatred he has for mainland China is pure and unyielding, he loves America and democracy more than most americans, he was a M2 gunner during his time in the army (every male has to join for a time), I don't know if he's the average or just an extreme autistic example.
In fact I think I pity him for trusting americans, hopefully they never have to found out how fickle you are.

>>63863355
People really don't understand the scale of China. You're gonna run out of munitions you actually made a difference The sheer amount of targets that you need to hit... There's literal millions of factories in China, thousands of gigawatt scale power plants, tens of thousands of solar/wind farms, hundreds of military bases. You could set up every single HIMARS America has in the middle of China, fire all the ammo ever made for them, and you still would have barely made a dent. Trying to pound China into submission with expensive cruise missiles? Maybe if you had millions of them.

There's a reason why every "realistic" scenario to defeat China is to starve them via a naval blockade and sanctions or by destroying the the 3 gorges dam.

>>63863383
>he loves America
Absolutely pathetic.
>he loves democracy
America isn’t a democratic country
>the hatred he has for mainland China
And the ironic thing is, if he visited America, America would be racist to him, if he visited China, the Chinese will welcome him.

>>63863395
>every "realistic" scenario to defeat China is to starve them via a naval blockade
That’s not possible:
1. In a war time scenario, China can still easily get its fuel supplies overland via Russia, Kazakhstan, and it can still trade with Southeast Asia, Russia, Mongolia, Central Asia.
2. Not only is it not a given that America could successfully keep China out of choke points such as the straits of Malacca, but doing so would severely damage the global economy. Even if America let non-Chinese vessels threw, just the fact that the straits would become a war zone filled with mines and sunken ships would make them to hazardous for merchant vessels to navigate through.
3. Sanctioning China would work even worse than sanctioning Russia would, all it would do is severely damage Western economies.

>>63863431

>>63863452
*Russia did

>>63863431
based

>>63863431
https://desuarchive.org/k/search/image/Ob2OplBny_GqaNCtgMlgBA/
https://archive.4plebs.org/_/search/image/Ob2OplBny_GqaNCtgMlgBA/
Get a life you fucking troglodyte.

>>63863452
>this os what the chinese actually believe
Its gonna be really funny when there's less than a billion of them lol

>>63862182
>The Europeans will bow to China to retain access to their markets
Only retarded MBAs keep giving away trade secrets for short-term gains. Everyone else has realized that chinks cannot be trusted.
At work chink subsidiaries are handled like outsiders or a competitor. Even the drones in india get treated with more cooperation than them.

>>63863383
>>63863431
Pathetic samefagging

>>63862306
>China is highly trained and experienced

Lack of combat experience is one of the biggest weaknesses the Chinese military faces you midwit

>>63862071
...which is why Putin waited until he was out of office to invade Ukraine.

>>63862237
>>63861753
Considering how chinese civil wars go? There is a non zero chance of cannibalism.

>>63862255
>Xi's time is running out
His time has already ran out. Xi has been disappearing from public meetings, phrases attributed to him are getting dropped, personnel appointed by him have been reassigned, he's still in power and will be till 2027 but all the power and positions have been shifted away from him. He fucked up China's handling of Covid and subsequent withdrawal from Covid so the PRC isn't going to let him stay on till 2032 as he wishes, best outcome is he's allowed to die in retirement with all his allies arrested for corruption.

>>63862403
Actually, now that drone swarms are a thing, you have a very real chance to stop any invasion in its tracks. Time to start stockpiling some.

>>63861739 (OP)
>every city and cm2 will be vaporized by 3000 balistic missiles
What's the point in conquering a wasteland?

>>63863668
Mainland China is the largest drone manufacturer on Earth. How are you gonna expect the Taiwanese military which can barely arm its conscripts with ammunition in peace time to build massive drone swarms?
There’s been a severe overestimation of Taiwanese military and industrial capability for decades at this point.

>>63863699
They don't have to build more drones than China; just enough to damage or sink most of the ships and landing craft.

>>63862505
Easy ways around it, and ones the US has done before.
Simply sell taiwan some medium range ballistic missiles, but swear up and down that they're purely conventional like oreshnik and to counter china's medium range missiles.
Then quietly give taiwan nukes and keep it top secret, have nobody know about it.
Then strategically leak some hints to china that make them believe that taiwan has nukes, clear enough that they're scared to attack but nothing too obvious to be actual proof.
Doesn't take much. Some purchase receipts for some radiation detectors or something linked to the missile unit thru 2-3 middleman.
A request for the delivery of tritium for uhh "gun sights" wink wink.
Just vehemently deny publicly.

>>63862526
>The spent trillions on the j 20 unaware it wasn't stealth until it was built

Bro it's 2025 these days nobody builds as much as a toilet roll holder without doing CFD and FEM on it.
There's thousands of chinese research papers on engine tech, stealth coatings, stealth shaping, solver software to simulate radar return of objects, and the chinese did the same thing the americans did: build a scale model and throw it on a radar range bouncing beams off it for years.
First, it is stealth, secondly, they know *exactly* how stealth and knew long before they build it.

>>63862535
>Non stealth

It's probably stealthier given it's slightly newer and had a more streamlined development cycle with less retardation like MUHHHREENS vertical take off.

>maintenance hog

Do you have even a shred of evidence for that?

>can only make 2 or 3 a month that work cost 150 million even with slave labor, shakes bad at high speeds and can't turn above 700 kph without wings ripping off.

They're making 120 fighters a year currently, please troll more subtly.

>>63862531
Are you suggesting china doesn't have manpower? 250k is nothing for them.
Did you not see the landing ships they build to use civilian ships to land troops?
They're gonna land 2 million if they want to and they're all gonna be mechanized by the looks of it lmao.

>>63863203
Taiwan is the anchor of pacific if you’re trying to contain someone in the east, especially missile armed submarines. A Chinese sub base in Taiwan makes it impossible to have real time tracking of Chinese subs leaving base without having to station several hunter-killers inside the territorial limit.

This is why the USA has an interest in contesting Taiwan, not semi-conductors or client state obligations or devotion to anti-communist resistance, etc etc. Taiwan existing simplifies US naval dominance in the Pacific, and Taiwan reclaimed by China complicates it.

>>63863669
Building a naval base in the ruins.

>>63863580
Russia was even less prepared for an invasion in 2018-2021 than they were in 2022. If they had pitched off while Trump was in power, it wouldn’t have mattered, the Ukrainians would probably have had much more success in holding the Donbas.

>>63862403
Stop spending so much on lunch and buy some japanese digital calipers instead of those grandpa ones.
No wonder my socket set was so loose, you work like cavemen.

>>63863955
Taiwanese tools are solid although I have a set of Mitutoyos when I need autistic precision.

>>63862085
>being crushed by a widely unpopular nation among the “running water” world
China isn't that unpopular, even in Europe.Even in Poland, where I live, they have been polls showing people preferring Chinese culture to American one.And Poland is one of the most pro-American countries on the continent.

>>63862431
Satellites are not as useful as you're stating, you only get partial feeds as they pass over a specific part of the Earth. They will not be able to keep 24/7 feeds of the waters around Taiwan for thousands of km. This is exactly why anti ship ballistic missiles are not as useful as they sound, you have to have some kind of sensor detecting and giving target track quality data to your launchers. Satellites are not at all reliable for this and ships entering the area around Taiwan will be zig zagging which makes ballistic missile kills on ships a lot harder. You also can't just use drones as there will be radars everywhere, nothing will stay in the air for very long if it's non stealthy and flying in the waters around coastal China or Taiwan in a war scenario

>>63862246
Singapore is a city state, and China likes them. If needed though, they’re literally a pebble to be kicked aside. The Hong Kong shit was Singapore shipping military vehicles through without declaration after a joint exercise elsewhere. They didn’t care about Singapore demanding immediate release, but released it after clearing up the facts. The temper tantrum would be from the Singapore lol

>>63863452
>In a war time scenario, China can still easily get its fuel supplies overland via Russia, Kazakhstan
My autistic friend, life is not a binary yes or no thing. Just because there are transport routes doesn't mean you could use them as a substitute.
1. Land transport sucks donkey dick when compared to ocean in terms of cost, efficiency and available bandwidth.
2. Existing transport routes are small, long and clogged as it is with shit.
Chinks would be able to replace the maritime trade with land based trade routes.

>>63862071
>orange brain tumor
>TACO
>agent orange
wew lad thats a lot of gay buzz words. i definitely believe you are american

>>63863452
Holy fuck you retard, who told you this cope scenario. When the shit kicks off we’re going to liquidate your Navy, Air force, and your military high command before getting you to sign whatever treaty we wish. Tiny-dick yellow retard go fuck yourself.

How does the US win a naval war against China when we have so much trouble pumping out ships nowadays? I worry about us being in Japan's position in a second Pacific War.

>>63864037
>1. Land transport sucks donkey dick when compared to ocean in terms of cost, efficiency and available bandwidth.

That doesn't apply to gas/oil that is transported via pipeline. Just check the price of natural gas via Nordstream vs LNG tankers. LNG tankers are anywhere from 30-70% more expensive. You have a point with large scale cargo haulers.

>2. Existing transport routes are small, long and clogged as it is with shit.

While of course not as cheap and efficient as ships, there have been multiple new railways that have opened up in the last 2 years, with even more currently under construction. Your info is vastly out of date.

>>63862182
>The Europeans will bow to China to retain access to their markets
Nigger, China wants European markets, not the other way around. Guess what happens to an economy geared for getting revenue from international demand when international demand dries up

>>63862182
>Europeans will bow to China to retain access to their markets
Europe isn't selling much to China. But with how Zion Don has called a continuation of the previous relationship into question, it might be changing. Especially in the long term.
Europe has no stake in the Pacific game.

>>63864547
>gas/oil that is transported via pipeline
what pipeline?

>>63862031
Did you know you can build dams in locations that a catastrophic failure won't cause the largest loss of "human" life by a single event in human history?
Shocking, I know.

China invading Taiwan is the new Russia going through the Fulda gap, change my mind.

>>63864641
probably but rusia didnt has crossing the fulda gap as a national policy.

>>63864624
There's more still under construction

>>63862402
I'm not going to suggest that China is competent or anything, but Russia isn't just incompetent they're, like, anti-competent. Like some kind of bizzaro inverse world where things are explicitly as incompetent and ass backwards as physically possible. (Because it's easier to embezzle that way).
Personally I think China would end up with their own traffic jam of death like Monke's Monkeys had, but there's always the very slim chance Pooh Bear saw that happen and realized his own military would do the exact same thing.
Problem is, the clock is ticking for China to actually do something with all this new military kit before they get kicked in the balls with demographic consequences for retarded commie choices years ago, so he may be forced to just take a gamble and hope his serfs are at least less shit than Russians, (usually a low bar but I'm not fully convinced.)

>>63862182
The average European doesn't have an interest in mountains of Chinese plastic. There's enough nukes in Europe not controlled by the US to flatten all Chinese population centers as well if the Chinese tried to influence Europe.

>>63864663
it would require an unprecedented effort to perform Normandy 2.0 with no operational surprise, no (guaranteed) naval superiority against a modern military defending pre-sighted beaches.
I have my doubts on if even the US navy would be able to pull it off without massive casualties and/or a several month long bombing campaign ahead of the first landings. China can't do it

>>63862044
>create child torture chambers
Made up by NAFO who probably have child abuse material on their computers

>>63862520
They absolutely exist, especially in modern times. Nowadays the single most important thing for keeping a war going is keeping your civilian population convinced that it's necessary. How do you think the Vietnam War would have gone if instead of constant protests and massive public sentiment to end, not WIN but END, the war every single American was convinced that utterly annihilating the commies and crushing them to an unconditional surrender was the only acceptable outcome? Instead of IT AINT ME and hippie protest, pop culture shifted fully into BUY WAR BONDS, ENLIST TODAY mode? What if there was no draft because recruitment offices had lines of young men AND women clamoring for a chance to go fight for Uncle Sam?
In the past, it was much easier for a state to keep it's people convinced of this simply because information was in a bubble by default due to technology restrictions, in the modern age not only is it hard for any state to control the narrative because of the Internet allowing for instant news of whatever happens to reach home, it means your enemy can broadcast their own propaganda, (which alone has become FAR more advanced and pervasive), directly into the hands of your citizens. Hell, just look at /k/ lately, half of any given thread is zigger shills yelling at chink shills yelling at mudslime shills yelling at like shills yelling at CIA glowies while people who just want to use the board normally are forced to ask themselves "what's the agenda?" for literally every single post.

>>63864704
Americas first amendment create a glaring attack vector in the English speaking internet, forcing partners like the USGIV to fill in the gap by running active counter narrative measures on US hosted sites, to confront Russian rhetoric before it can take advantage of a lack of oversight to propagate.

Americas first amendment create a glaring attack vector in the English speaking internet, forcing partners like the UKGOV to fill in the gap by running active counter narrative measures on US hosted sites, to confront Russian rhetoric before it can take advantage of a lack of oversight to propagate.

>>63864661
>Myanmar
Good luck, that pipeline doesn't work because locals kept destroying it before the civil war and its inoperable during it and as that map says China is reliant on overseas imports like most countries are.

>>63862937
>>63862945
An Lushan was not Han you retard.

An Lushan (Yan dynasty) and a big part of his army were ethnic minorities under China's rule and they rebelled against the Han rulers.

Zhang Xun killed over 120,000 barbarians serving An Lushan, that wasn't an internal Han civil war.

An Lushan's ethnicity was massacred in Fanyang by Gao Juren during the war since they didn't look East Asian.

>>63862785
Anti ship missles are different from regular ballistic missiles.

>>63862143

The "Taiwanese" (98% of the population) don't live in the mountains.

Mountain Aboriginals (2% if the population) are the only people who live there.

>>63862774
>>63862779
>>63863203

Muslim insurgents in Mindanao will attack the Philippine military the movement the US tries to use Philippines as a base against China.

It's funny how China hawk Amerimutts who preach about leaving the Middle East so the US won't face Muslim insurgency keep forgetting how Muslim Moros fought centuries of war against Spain, US, Japan and the Philippines.

US will NEVER escape Islam or be able to use Islam as a tool, Muslims will still be opponents of the US when the US uses Philippines in its anti-China plans.
https://web.archive.org/web/20141026095549/http://mnlfnet.com/Articles/Editorial_11August2012_Impact%20of%20Possible%20China-Phil%20War%20Within%20Filipino-Moro%20War%20in%20Mindanao.htm

http://web.archive.org/web/20130307170159/http://mnlfnet.com/Articles/BYC_08Oct2012_Historical%20&%20Human%20Wrong%20of%20Phil%20Colonialism.htm


The Moro Muslims massacred the Japanese during World War II and they have close relations with Chinese for centuries.

Chinese supplied the Moros against the Spanish and Moros permit their women to intermarry with non-Muslim Chinese men and multiple Moros are of Chinese descent.

The Moros slaughtered US, Japanese and Filipino soldiers in multiple occasions with Kris and bolo daggers

>>63862742
>>63864663
>>63864690
Taiwan is also corrupt, gutter oil was first used in Taiwan.

>>63862779
Japan, Taiwan and South Korea all had forced population control in the 1950s and 1960s (forced on them by the US).

South Korea literally had a proto two child policy and forced sterilisations.

Most children in Taiwan and South Korea are only childs, their fertility is LOWER than mainland China.

>>63863107
Vietnam ceded land on the border to China around Friendship gate and lost Johnson South reef.

>>63863203
Indonesia has West Papua insurgency and Philippines has Moro Muslim insurgency.

France also faces renewed insurgency in New Caledonia.

Indonesia and Philippines will end up balkanised in the next war. Indonesia already lost East Timor.

>>63863217
>>63863203

If China wanted to fuck the US over and take over the Pacific, China would support Muslim insurgents against the Philippines in Mindanao, and spam social media with pictures of Filipino atrocities against Muslims like the mass rapes at Mamasapano and Manili.

The US would have zero retort or response to this propaganda (because its all factual and all leftists and Muslims would support China against Philippines)

China hasn't done anything like that. So called "communist leftists" in the US haven't done anything like that (because they are controlled opposition shills by the US government)

If the Philippines got fucked, the US would receive a massive blow materially, psychologically and in propaganda.

The fact is, unfortunately China isn't doing that, because its not interested in conquest of the Pacific, the communist party of China actually believes in their own dumb principles and ideology, about non-interference militarily in other countries, they genuinely claim Taiwan only because it was officially part of the Republic of China and the KMT government fled there.

>>63864903
Oh those Muslim Moros? The ones we defeated before?

>>63864937
It's because Xi Jinping is a CIA asset. The rhetoric is just to save face with his own people, but the PRC might one day have a premier more aligned with the old ways.
China also claims outer Manchuria, and I won't be surprised if absent American influence in the region they find some way to justify Korea and Japan as well. China wants puppet states along its borders.

>>63864937
Nah China already funds the communist rebels in the Philippines

>>63862505
Just do what Switzerland did

>>63863924
Have you seen the size of the Taiwan straight and the effectiveness of USV swarms in the black sea?
The days of being around to just park a fleet off someone else's beach while at war with them are long gone, but the days of needing to do so to pull off an amphibious invasion are not

>>63862271
Xi took over China and promptly undid all the social and economic progress of the 90s-00s. Bro wants to be Mao 2.0 so bad he made his own little red book. Just like Mao, he's gonna talk about invading Taiwan and then do nothing.

>>63862387
>>63862368
THAT'S RIGHT SON
ANYONE THAT BRINGS UP LOSING A 20 YEAR WAR IS A CHINAMAN
MY SON GOT 3 KILLS OVER THERE BACK DURING THE BUSH ADMIN, SOUNDS LIKE A WIN TO ME
PLUS THE OL' PORTFOLIO DEFINITELY SAW A NICE BOOST

-Bill "Hoss" Wilson
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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2015 Ford Mustang "Executive Package" For Sale, DM for info, no lowballers
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>>63864547
>While of course not as cheap and efficient as ships, there have been multiple new railways that have opened up in the last 2 years, with even more currently under construction. Your info is vastly out of date.
You'd need like 20x the amount of currently available rail routes to cover even a part of the maritime traffic. There's a reason that there are barely two rail routes across russia (trans-siberian railway + BAM) and both are clogged with shit.

>>63864693
They were confirmed by locals in the region and documented by investigators my brown friend

>>63862071
Speak English you faggot.

>>63866003

You had me at the part about locals, but it was documented by investigators too? We must hold Russia accountable for this grave transgression against the rules based international order at once.

>>63862041
damn Char calm down

>>63864370
cope cuck white boy

>>63862071
Go back to your dying Blueshit platform.

>>63866576
>half-life: blue shit

why do you retards think it's going to start with some massive missile barrage or a massive landing? china for sure has plenty of agents inside and sneaked in plenty of specops inside. it will be more like little green man in crimea. one night the internet and electricity will be cut. a chunk of the leadership will be assassinated. government buildings will be taken over. a formal surrender will be released. troops will be ordered to lay down arms. only after all this they will start to land. in the chaos nobody will do shit about it. how good are the security services in taiwan? they should be more concerned about things like this.

>>63864015
>They will not be able to keep 24/7 feeds of the waters around Taiwan for thousands of km
of course they will be. you just need enough satellites. we are in the age of mega constellations. chinese has been launching a lot of satellites. nothing compared to starlink, but it doesn't need to be.

>>63864937
lmao chink shill who is more pro-chinese than the chinese state

>>63865922
>20 years of uncontested occupation

>>63866628
>it will be more like little green man in crimea
Unironically, how much of a chance does China have of pulling off something like this? I feel like this is the only way China can win and not regret the consequences afterwards.

>>63862456
You need to leave.

>>63866701
Zero, the only chance China has to pull something like this off is by winning the propaganda war, installing some pro-China KMT candidate, who will implement reforms and cut ties with the west.

>>63866707
Go back to bluesky troon

>>63861739 (OP)
Hasn’t the whole Iran thing and all the stuff with the Houthis spent that ballistic missile spam just isn’t viable? China should be rethinking their entire strategy being based solely on missiles seeing just how much of a failure the concept of that is.

>>63863021
>>63866707
go back, redditard

>>63865572
>Have you seen the size of the Taiwan straight and the effectiveness of USV swarms in the black sea?

You think taiwan's side will have more USVs than china? Lmao.

>The days of being around to just park a fleet off someone else's beach while at war with them are long gone, but the days of needing to do so to pull off an amphibious invasion are not

China will kill all of the weapon systems taiwan has with missiles and airstrikes and create total air superiority before moving close with any big asset.
Do you think they just roll up with a ship at the coast and get sunk or what?

Fucking nonce board i swear.

>>63864015
Entirely wrong post. China has 24/7 satellite coverage of every centimeter of the south china sea.
China is live-tracking every single US naval asset 24/7.
You seem to have no clue about chinese drones, they have ones with over 50m wing span cruising at 18km altitude for 36 hours straight with 1000km sensor range. It's called HALE, you probably never even heard of it.

>china finally gets around to launching the mother of all alpha strikes on taiwan
>thousands of hypersonic missiles are fired by hundreds of aircraft
>thousands more are fired from warships
>yet thousands more are fired from stationary installations
>this happens (the biggest craft depicted here represents taiwan)
https://youtu.be/EMqy_v2Y21A
>super secret amellican technorogy rins again! uwu

china will just evaporate all that high tech industry, yep

Bump

why

do

motherfuckers

type

like

this???

>>63868329
reality: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rY7v21Zy1yE

>>63866686
>"Our goal all along was to occupy uncontested"

>>63868124
this is baby's first wargame with Taiwan
if it was that easy, Taiwan would belong to China already
china's going to lose half of its surface fleet, over a dozen submarines, a bunch of "fishing boats" and get humiliated by the west if they try
taiwan is a trap

>>63861739 (OP)
>every city and cm2 will be vaporized by 3000 balistic missiles
those cities are why its worth capturing in the first place..

>>63870183
>those cities are why its worth capturing in the first place
you're honestly a midwit
you should be in a bar right now watching a sports game

Good thread

>>63865922
>Assad: Gone
>Iran: btfo
>Russian military: Dead
>Thirdie Air Defenses: Fraudulent
Who gives a fuck about Afghanistan. Brownoids and the whole Brics alliance has been exposed as more pathetic than anyone could have imagined. And now with Europe and the Middle East cleaning itself up nicely the US can now focused everything on China.

Any Chinese aggression against taiwan must necessarily start with an (attempted) decapitation strike on US assets in the region. Assuming the slants decide military action is the way of course. They'd be much better off attempting to soft power their way to unification, and buying up all taiwanese industry prior. But that needs a non-retarded non-demagogue in charge. Unfortunately they have XJP

Either Taiwan surrenders, or China slams it with missiles but fails to invade successfully. Those are the only two results. Once the missiles start flying China has given up on taking Taiwan and is only flattening it out of cuckold spite.

>>63871951
Fortunately there is no way to stage an invasion without the entire 5 eyes watching every single move, and they'll likely have intel down to the house when the initial attack is going to kick off. But, institutional inertia coupled with idiot politicians will cause initial inaction and the slants will be able to launch a massive first strike. Americans will die, probably some Japs too.

Two weeks later, 5 carrier groups will begin levelling Taiwan and the Chinese coast. XJP probably geta a gbu dropped on his head

>>63871968
Down to the hour

>>63871968
>Americans will die, probably some Japs too.
Not probably. Tens of thousands will die in missile attacks. Nearly all US facilities are in heavily populated areas. Japan will take more casualties than the US. My cynical side says that's by design: Japan can be the missile sponge in our place.

>>63871962
Imaging missiles flying back from Taiwan into the shitty paper towers of mainland? into super dense cities... there will be flood of millions of new chigna disaster vids

>>63871975
True but I wasn't even considered that. I think they'll hit any jap surface vessels in the initial strike. And when you consider your point; of course they'll do that

I would also expect the Indians to attempt a land invasion once the us starts hammering the mainland, which the pakis will take umbrage with and then we get a massive shitflinging contest around Kashmir, yet again

There is also a greater than 0 chance that Thailand and Vietnam will be 'persuaded' to contribute to a land offensive when the time comes. In a china vs us scenario, north Vietnam is the most valuable staging area possible

AshM spam will be used by the chinks, and it will work; once. They might even mission kill a carrier. Once. After that, USN will wise up and stay outside range until the boomers (nuke subs) have tomahawk'd every land based launch platform, and the air based platforms have been knocked out the sky. We'll also get to see the first ever ASat missiles launched at another country. Both sides will do this I suspect. If china has any sense, it's day 1 for them. Tooo bad there are so many keyholes flying about up there: they'll never get them all. They will temporarily degrade in-theater satellite surveillance though, at least initially.

There will be a battle for the Pacific, as the retarded slants desperately attempt to interdict supply convoys. They'll have initial success but at massive cost. The us will functionally obliterate the PLAN sub force in the first month, allowing us convoys basically unimpeded access to the first island chain

If china was smart, and they are not; they'd do a terrorism on the Panama canal as part of the initial strike. Hell, just send one of their flagged merchant ships in and evergrande it into the canal

>>63872113
Ever given* the ship that blocked the suez

If the US has any balls, they'll be making a call on the first day, telling Russia if they so much as blink that Moscow and st Petersburg will be getting to see their final (artificial) sunrise. There is too much at stake to allow their typical fuckery

>>63861739 (OP)
>missiles
Taiwan is close enough for artillery strikes...

>>63864690
>no (guaranteed) naval superiority
That would assume that US wouldn't cuck out

>>63864690
Its be retarded to even attempt it. US goes through north Vietnam

>>63872170
Just so we're clear; assuming the slants do gain a foothold on Taiwan, there is no point attempting to counter invade. The game plan would be chink regime change, which means a land invasion of the mainland. The strategic thinking is that once the people see that the ccp is actually weak as fuck and has allowed the us to invade, they'll lose the mandate of heaven and the Chinese people will remove the ccp. This won't happen though, slants are too buckbroken

>>63861739 (OP)
now that its been a week we actually have some numbers to work with regarding ballistics missiles so lets do the maths
>Iranian missiles fired: ~500
>total Israelis killed (civillian + military): ~25
This leads to an average of around 20 ballistic missiles expended per kill (250% more efficient than bullets on a per unit basis!) which, when scaled for Taiwan. works out to approximately 3 million missiles required to kill the 150k active duty personnel plus an additional 30 million missiles for the reserves
Of course, the Chinese will also need to build up a separate, even larger stockpile of missiles to deal with anyone who might intervene such as the US

>>63872203
Israel isn't telling the truth and neither is Iran. Missiles fired is less and casualties are higher. Remind me again; what's always the first casualty in war?

>>63872209
You think israel is hiding civillian casualties instead of playing them up as much as possible to garner international sympathy?

>>63872209
what numbers would you suggest I use for the calculation?

>>63872223
No they are hiding military casualties

>>63872232
I just wouldn't bother at all. The simplistic equation you're trying to formulate doesn't hold in the real world, and is utterly irrelevant in a china vs Taiwan (+US) scenario. Chinese missiles are better, and I would expect Chinese to be capable of sead/dead, and actually do it 10 minutes before the ballistic barrage hits. Don't underestimate your enemies

One thing that would be interesting is GPS. The Americans will instantly do what they were doing up to the 90's, and reintroduce the gps offset error. But the chinks have a couple of their own GPS says, which will have to go. Russia will need to be persuaded to deactivate or degrade glonass, and the euros will naturally do the same without asking to Galileo. Losing gps will be devastating for the slants but surely surely their planners know that will definitely happen

>>63872339
Oh bugger they have 56. Not going to be realistic to knock them all out, and the media will go mental over nonsense Kessler syndrome

I'd also say a greater than evens chance we get to see the first ever mass (I mean 100k+) mini drone attacks; probably in the first week. They'll set up a drone swarm autonomously flying aroun, with slants on the other end manually triggering attacks on targets of opportunity. Will be absolute kino and absolutely horrifying for the taiwanese

>>63872251
It doesnt need to be perfectly accurate to make its point
Terror bombing doesn't work. Terror bombing with ballistic missiles doesn't work either
The number of ballistic missiles required to effectively degrade Taiwanese resistance to the point where a Chinese invasion becomes feasible is vastly in excess of the amount of ballistic missiles China can ever produce and always will be.

>>63872251
>Chinese missiles are better
who do you think was selling the Iranians missile components? Russia?

>>63872235
What do you think is the actual ratio of missiles expended per kill?
15?
10?

>>63872405
Fortunately, our planning guys don't agree with you. Its expected that within 48 hours all aa will be destroyed or mission-killed, along with 80% of all airfields along with ammo and supply depots

>>63872418
What's a 'kill'. Forget Iran. China won't do terror bombing until they realize they are fucked. They will 'kill' every piece of taiwanese and american military hardware they can see. Or they'll try to. The have more missiles than Taiwan has AA

>>63872421
Fortunate, because the guy I'm replying to is for some reason displaying the worst possible trait for anyone to have during a war. Hubris. The Pentagon doesn't do that

This has been wargamed to death, and will continue to be as chinas capabilities develop. In every scenario regardless of whether the slants can make landfall or not, the military damage to Taiwan from the initial mass attack is exceptional, with the bulk coming from standoff missile attacks. The bomber/missile ALWAYS gets through. To think otherwise is to lose, and lose hard.

>>63862609
KEK the JIDF and Korean forces were both intentionally made weaker by forcing their organization & communication to defer to America (after all the US would be the backbone of logistics)

let off the leash? why would you even bother leashing an emaciated dog that hasn't eaten anything in over 50 years?

>>63872454
Which is why it's funny that the military is claiming that they really care about Taiwan and will defend them etc. There is no way we can stop the Chinese from taking Taiwan unless they take 30,000 casualties and decide that they don't think it's worth it anymore, which is funny given their willingness to lose 2x this number of men back in 1979 in the conflict with Vietnam. There is no realistic way to defend Taiwan given that we are expected to run out of missiles for the navy in 10-14 days and we have to try to contest Chinese stealth assets (which will be a problem even if they're not as LO as F-35s) with outnumbered 4th gen naval air wings. All of this and we will still have our land bases hammered with every ballistic missile they can get their hands on. It's simply unrealistic to believe that we can do anything but bloody the PLA's noses, especially given the absolute clusterfuck of USN procurement and the status of our shipbuilding. Combine that with Congress dragging their feet on funding massive munitions production increases over the last 20 years and only doing so when it's way too late (last 5 years) and there is not really a whole lot we can do. Our government fucked us

>China will vaporize infraestructure and people they want to incorporate into their country
Dumb take, Karkiv is in artillery range of Russia and they dont dare flatten it because its like 10% Russian, Taiwan is 100% Chinese

>>63863917
>It's probably stealthier given it's slightly newer and had a more streamlined development cycle with less retardation
Are chink shills actually this stupid or are you trolling us right now

>>63863377
>Americans busy deepthoating Israel and getting ready to waste another presidency dying in the middle east

Victory by default more like.

>>63872477
You are almost 100% correct but perhaps overly pessimistic? The expectation is that Taiwan falls. That's always been the way. However as tike goes on and more US assets are shipped to the region, it's inevitable that the USN will gain control of the Pacific first then eventually the SCS, and will be constantly hammering anything the can from their bases around the first island chain. Its not all doom and gloom.

That bring said, there is no expectation that Taiwan can be retaken if it falls. The only military recourse then is a land invasion and regime change. That could escalate to a nuclear exchange or threats from the chinks to do that. At that point military planning kinda goes out the window as the politicians come to play

>>63872427
>What's a 'kill'
A person who was alive is no longer alive due to a ballistic missile strike

>>63872487
Yes, that's absurd. They will hit military targets, not infrastructure. Unless they are losing of course. They'll definitely flatten the semiconductor fabs if they are forced to withdraw

>>63872487
Oh yeah just like all the russian speaking cities they captured previously, that didn't get flattened by artillery or anything

Daily reminder that russia caused tens of thousands of civilian deaths bombarding mariupol, then also fired artillery on the civilian convoys that tried to leave toward Ukrainian-held territory.

>>63872500
And because of this thinking, it's inevitable that the taiwanese move their AA gear to these sites in the hope the slants won't strike them. That will massively complicate things

>>63872507
They only get flattened during fighting, they dont randomly empty their stocks in the directions of cities like Iran does with Israel, you dont actually believe this is true you're virtue signalling or else why would Ukraine's 2nd city still be functional when its in range even of small mortar systems ?you're an anonymous poster you wont lose reputation by speaking the truth

>>63872496
Yeah and as I keep saying, china won't waste a missile to maybe kill sole civilians. They'll attack valuable military targets because they want to win. Iran is scared shitless of actually really hurting Israel unfortunately. They know the wrath of god (us) will instantly rain down on them if they were to actually fuck up the Israeli military. Also iron dome and David's sling do actually work. Israel has a LOT of anti missile defense. Taiwan doesn't

>>63872527
If Iran really really was serious about anything, they would have sent those dubious 500 missiles directly into Israeli c&c infrastructure. If I was in charge of Iran, the knesset wouldn't be there anymore

>>63872520
Random apartment blocks in Kyiv and Lviv get hit with missiles on a daily basis, anon. Anyone with access to Google and 5 seconds of time can see you're totally wrong.

>>63872571
Something something ascribing malice when stupidity. 1213 days into the 3 day SMO.

(The probably do it on purpose)

Just playing devil's advocate. I fully agree with you. The Russians are terror bombing

>>63872203

Bad metric.

I launch 100 missiles at an airbase and destroy 40 aircraft, 10 billion goes up in smoke, 10 die in the fires

I launch 100 missiles and kill 10000 civvies.

Your metric rewards the second. Clearly not a very useful measure old chap

>>63872571
Thats just shitty accuracy or interceptions, Russia absolutely has the capability of turning Karkiv, Kherson and Zaporozya to rubble with tube artillery alone

>>63872025
>Indians to attempt a land invasion

India borders uninhabitable freezing wasteland (Aksai Chin and Tibet).

There's nothing for India to invade.

>>63872068
Thailand has zero borders and disputes with China.

Vietnam has Montagnard ethnic insurgents in the Central Highlands who killed Vietnamese police in 2023. They will rise up in insurgency against Vietnam, they hate the Vietnamese settlers.

Cambodians hate Vietnamese dor occupying their land and lynch them in elections.

>>63872477
>unless they take 30,000 casualties and decide that they don't think it's worth it anymore, which is funny given their willingness to lose 2x this number of men back in 1979 in the conflict with Vietnam. There

China didn't lose 60,000 dead in 1979 dimbass.

Not even Vietnamese claim that.

Vietnamese sneakily claim 25,000 dead and 35,000 wounded, and then idiots read it as 60,000 dead.

Western governments estimate military deaths at 20,000-25,000 dead for both China and Vietnam

>>63872494
Moro Muslims are going to slaughter the Philippine military in Mindanao and the Philippines will collapse as a state.

Moros singlehandedly fucked the US pivot to Asia in 2013 when they attacked Zamboanga.

Anti-China media in US were shrieking and screaming about how Moros are Muslim terrorists and fucking up US war plans against China.

>>63873103
India has very strong reasons to go north, mainly securing the sources of most of their fresh water. If they get a whiff that it's possible I can easily them taking their chances.

>>63864663
>something with all this new military kit before they get kicked in the balls with demographic consequences for retarded commie choices years ago,

Population control was forced on entire East Asia by the US, dumbass, the US forced Taiwan and South Korea to sterilise and abort their own people in the 1950s and 1960s.

Taiwan and South Korea are near population collapse because of the US

>>63864917

They did that with Japan and South Korea and Taiwan in the 1950s-1970s.

The US forced Taiwan, South Korea and Japan to implement mass forced population control and sterilisations in the 1950s-1970s including forced sterilisations and abortion.

Taiwan and South Korea have lower TFR than China.

Japan has below replacement TFR.
https://archive.is/P8GUb

https://archive.is/sXlQo

https://archive.is/h94ph

USAID was directly involved in sterilising Indians under Indira Gandhi and they sterilised South Koreans, Taiwanese and Japanese.

The US even threatened India with throttling food aid off if USAID and Rockefeller foundation weren't allowed to snip Indian testicles.

Rockefeller foundation on their websites openly brag about their role in sterilising Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and India.

The one child policy was implemented after Rockefeller pressured China to follow South Korea, Japan and India's policies in exchange for lifting diplomatic relations and sanctions.

>>63872170
The part of China next to Vietnam is entirely mountainous. (Guangxi province)

Vietnam's densely populated capital region in Hanoi is on the entitely flat Red River delta.

There's a reason why China ruled Vietnam for 1000 years.

>>63872190
>This won't happen though, slants are too buckbroken

The governments in Taiwan and South Korea and Japan force sterilised their people on demand of the US.

South Korean men had vasectomies in exchange for skipping military service from the 1960s to the 1990s.

Taiwan, South Korea and Japan all ban private gun ownership.

South Korea and Japan forced their own girls into prostitution on US military bases.

>>63873125
There's no food or civilians in that entire area for Indians to rape ahypothermia. Endless rocks, freezing cold and mountains. They have to motivation to fight in mountainous freezing wasteland where they will die of exposure and hyppthermia.

>>63873136
>>63864663
>>63864917
South Korea and Taiwan both rely on conscript armies while China's army is volunteer. Almost all of the children in South Korea and Taiwan are single childs.

There are more two child families in China, than the entire population of Taiwan

South Korea and Taiwan are the ones that will be demographically devastated in a war with China.

South Korea had a brutal two child policy in the 1960s-1980s, sterilising and aborting women.

Vietnam has the world's highest abortion rate

>>63873125
There's no food or civilians in that entire area for Indians to rape. Endless rocks, freezing cold and mountains. They have no motivation to fight in mountainous freezing wasteland where they will die of exposure and hypothermia.

>>63873136
>>63864663
>>63864917
South Korea and Taiwan both rely on conscript armies while China's army is volunteer. Almost all of the children in South Korea and Taiwan are single childs.

There are more two child families in China, than the entire population of Taiwan

South Korea and Taiwan are the ones that will be demographically devastated in a war with China.

South Korea had a brutal two child policy in the 1960s-1980s, sterilising and aborting women.

Vietnam has the world's highest abortion rate

>>63861998
>China can't control her shipping
China produces infinitely more warships than america and its western allies. You're really misjudging the relative strength of the two sides.

>>63863395
>destroying the the 3 gorges dam
lol America would hardly come out on top from the resulting nuclear armageddon.

>>63864370
lmao America's military is majority spic. There are hardly any white men or people with 90+ iq left in your armed forces. You won't even be able to get your barbarian conscripts to fight for you, neo-Rome.

>>63864663
>before they get kicked in the balls with demographic consequences
How can you say this as a white person in the west? Are you completely immune to irony, npc?