← Home ← Back to /k/

Thread 64062900

86 posts 24 images /k/
Anonymous No.64062900 >>64062906 >>64062908 >>64062917 >>64062919 >>64062927 >>64064430 >>64064443 >>64072266 >>64074503 >>64078047 >>64078095
Can the Aegis system shoot down nukes launched at us by Russia? Do we have anything else to protect us from nukes?
Anonymous No.64062906
>>64062900 (OP)
yes
yes
google anti-ballistic missiles
Anonymous No.64062908 >>64074422
>>64062900 (OP)
Russian incompetence.
Anonymous No.64062917 >>64078120
>>64062900 (OP)
Russia's vulnerability to nukes.
Anonymous No.64062919 >>64063993 >>64066735
>>64062900 (OP)
SM-3 IIA has a solid shot of intercepting ICBMs in-orbit, but it requires an Aegis BMD ship (not just regular Aegis) to be in the right place at the right time.

Also they only deploy ~8 SM-3's per boat, and not all of them will be the IIA variant, so you're only really going to have a shot of intercepting a rogue ICBM or two, not a full salvo from china/russia.

There is also the GMD system, though we only have 44 interceptors and they only have a probability of intercept of 97% when using 4 interceptors per target, so that can only cover ~11 ICBMs.
Anonymous No.64062927 >>64062950 >>64063003 >>64074431
>>64062900 (OP)
SM3s have a 25%/50% success rate in field tests. Against live targets those numbers drop to about a tenth though.
Anonymous No.64062950
>>64062927
>SM3s have a 25%/50% success rate in field tests
source: vatnigger cope delusions
Anonymous No.64063003
>>64062927
Lol
Anonymous No.64063993 >>64064075 >>64064090 >>64066615
>>64062919
I wonder if the golden dome funding means we are gonna purchase a lot more of these interceptor missiles
Anonymous No.64064075
>>64063993
Maybe, but realistically the money would need to go into expanding production capabilities first.

Right now for example the US has only bought 30 SM-3 IIA and both orders were placed in 2018/2019, and the final missile was delivered in June of 2025.

The most recent budget documents I can find say the US decided to purchase 12 SM-3 IIA's in FY25, so not exactly the production pace needed for a continental ICBM shield.

Beyond that, the GMD interceptors (GBI) are even more expensive and has even more limited production capability. And the new interceptor for GMD (NGI) is going to be even more expensive with some estimates putting them at over $200m per interceptor.
Anonymous No.64064090 >>64065189
>>64063993
Based on the lockheed martin website, these are the missiles and technologies that will be part of the Golden Dome

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/missile-defense/golden-dome-missile-defense.html

As for funding
>A significant portion of the funding is included in the 2025 budget reconciliation legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (P.L. 119-21), which provides $24.4 billion in mandatory funding for the Department of Defense until September 30, 2029. This funding is allocated for enhancing integrated air and missile defense and supports the Golden Dome initiative. Specific allocations include $18.8 billion for next-generation missile defense technologies and $5.9 billion for layered homeland defense
Anonymous No.64064101
Reminder that like ten years ago when the US suddenly declassified everything to do with orbital kill vehicles, several replacement devices were openly mentioned.
Anonymous No.64064124 >>64065966
Anonymous No.64064430
>>64062900 (OP)
US has anti-nooks but doesn't flaunt it because the US doesn't want to dare rogue shitholes into launching their arsenal.
Anonymous No.64064443
>>64062900 (OP)
Hi /pol/, I see you aren't taking the news Trump has turned on Russia well.
Anonymous No.64065189 >>64065914
>>64064090
The first part of GD will be the sensors. We've discussed in other threads the possibility that we're really close to having accurate, reliable MTI from space, which means StarShield and its follow-ons could theoretically handle all of the tracking and targeting and data relay between the HQs and the various ground and sea launchers, which would make intercepts *far* easier to pull off. If SpaceX's existing high-volume satellite assembly line could be used, then theoretically a rudimentary level of 24/7 coverage could be available within 2-3 years of authorization being given. The limiting factor would be the ability of subcontractors to manufacture the military-grade AESAs (I don't know who builds StarLink's TRMs).

That just leaves the interceptors, which ain't cheap. GBI is the best, but there are <50 of them. SM-3 is unproven against ICBMs in testing, and its performance may be marginal; however, the aforementioned orbital MTI could dramatically reduce the rocket performance requirements to conduct a successful intercept. THAAD is less capable, and would mostly be used for terminal defense, along with PAC-3s which would be last-ditch rolls of the dice. Spaceborne weapons would most likely be something akin to Brilliant Pebbles, taking advantage again of SpaceX's launch cadence, but that would probably be several years away even if prioritized tomorrow.
Anonymous No.64065283 >>64065299 >>64065929
no. ever since topol, russia uses marvs for their warhead buses that are designed to defeat mid-course interceptors.
Anonymous No.64065299 >>64065929
>>64065283
getting them in their boost phase is the only way, which golden dome is designed for. but russia is deploying ipbvs in the near future, which will defeat that. and terminal interceptors don't work against icbms, since they have no need to slow down to acquire the target. they impact at mach 13.

china will be most effected by golden dome.
Anonymous No.64065914 >>64065925
>>64065189
>SM-3 is unproven against ICBMs in testing
Not fully accurate, it successfully completed an intercept of a simulated ICBM target in late 2020. Specifically the ICBM-T2 threat-representative target.
Anonymous No.64065925 >>64065940
>>64065914
sm-3 can hit stuff that doesn't maneuver during mid-course just fine. satellites to icbms all moving at orbital velocities.

it just can't when there's an appreciable velocity change of the object, as the kkv doesn't have much delta-v of its own.
Anonymous No.64065929
>>64065299
>>64065283
The only solution would be a preemptive strike against silo, ssbn bases, tel bases. I’ll say that’s pretty doable with the b21 being available in a far larger number is compare to b2.
If the f-47 range without refueling can be increased to 3000-4000km, they can coordinate a huge swarm of ultra long range version of x-47 carrying these, loitering above russian or Chinese airspace at any given moment
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_Centric_Airborne_Defense_Element
A b21 can easily carry at least a dozen if not more of those
Anonymous No.64065940 >>64065953
>>64065925
I mean you're speculating, the ICBM-T2 target is designed to be "threat-representative," meaning it emulates the speed, trajectory, and other flight characteristics of a long range ballistic missile. It's a multistage rocket that uses components from decommissioned U.S. missiles like the Trident I C4 and Peacekeeper ICBM, modified to simulate the flight profile of a modern ICBM. The target is specifically designed to be a "complex separating" ballistic missile, which means it can release decoys or other countermeasures to challenge the interceptor's ability to identify and hit the actual warhead.

It might not have a high delta-v for drastic in atmosphere maneuvering, but it can clearly manage complex target discrimination in a cluttered environment.

The 2020 test wasn't the equivalent of hitting a satellite as you imply.
Anonymous No.64065953 >>64065960
>>64065940
not really speculating, rather just how it works. the rocket stages get it up to space and then the kkv releases and heads towards to intercept point. if the threat changes velocity that exceeds the delta-v of the kkv, it won't be able to hit. for something with a maneuverable bus, there's an appreciable change in velocity during bus separation from the second stage because its rocket motor can give it more delta-v than the sm-3's kkv; this is assuming the sm-3 platform waits until after the 1st stage separation change in course of the icbm (this was one of the earlier methods to defeat mid-course interceptors).

to have a chance at something like this, you need a ground-based interceptor, since that has quite a bit more delta-v than a sm-3.
Anonymous No.64065960
>>64065953
Yes what you're doing is literally speculating

>well if the warhead happens to change velocity after the interceptor separates it'll miss
With no actual knowledge if Russian/Chinese ICBMs even CAN do that, let alone actually do it at the right time to dodge an SM-3.

What you're essentially saying is the SM-3 needs to be fired at the right time, which, no shit, is obvious.

You acting like it CAN'T hit any ICBMs because of this is just braindead retard tier thinking.

Is it a 100% guarantee that it'll intercept? Of course not. But that's far from what you're saying which is essentially it WILL miss.
Anonymous No.64065966
>>64064124
boaner inducing
Anonymous No.64065967 >>64065990 >>64067194
Is Aegis Ashore more effective than THAAD?
I'm wondering why the Koreans and Japanese don't want both now that Kimmy is being stupid. Fuck the Chinese and what they think, if they cant reign in their dog.
Anonymous No.64065990 >>64066537 >>64067194
>>64065967
Japan didn't want AEGIS Ashore because they couldn't agree where it should go

Like 70-80% of Japanese people approve of getting AEGIS ashore, but when asked if they wanted it in their prefecture it dropped to like 10-20% approval.

So they're doing ASEV (Aegis system equipped vessels) instead using the AEGIS ashore radars they already purchased (SPY-7(V)1)

Japan likely hasn't considered THAAD for similar reasons.

South Korea already has a THAAD battery deployed, though owned and operated by the US. And AEGIS Ashore is politically dead in the water for South Korea due to China.

Though Guam's AEGIS ashore installation is supposedly operational now, with enhanced capability slated for 2029.
Anonymous No.64066537
>>64065990
they should put it up in the mountains at a holy site or something
Anonymous No.64066615 >>64066714 >>64069694
>>64063993
Golden Dome is economically impossible, we will never have the ability to intercept a true salvo of modern ICBMs because it would be so horrendously expensive that we would bankrupt the country. It would cost trillions of dollars to buy the missiles, buy the actual X band radars needed and buy the land and develop it for missile launches. The orbital interceptor idea is even worse arguably. The physics for this problem simply do not work.
Anonymous No.64066714 >>64066775
>>64066615
>this nigga doesn't believe in Brilliant Pebbles
kill yourself
Anonymous No.64066735 >>64066746
>>64062919
>There is also the GMD system, though we only have 44 interceptors and they only have a probability of intercept of 97% when using 4 interceptors per target, so that can only cover ~11 ICBMs.

Isnt GMD terminal point defense? Then it would be 4 interceptors per warhead, meaning that all of them would be able to take down 1 multi warhead icbm launch.
Anonymous No.64066746 >>64066766
>>64066735
>Is Terminal Point Defense?
Anonymous No.64066766 >>64066772
>>64066746
>>Is Terminal Point Defense?

Yeah but what is the official range on this thing? You have to be able to get the bus before it starts to drop warheads and decoys meaning that you have to launch within minutes of the ICBM being launched.
Anonymous No.64066772
>>64066766
m8, do you know what "midcourse" means?
Anonymous No.64066775 >>64066843 >>64067638
>>64066714
Satellites in LEO are a shitty ass way of intercepting ICBMs because of how many you need to put into orbit for good coverage
Anonymous No.64066843 >>64067185
>>64066775
the math is simple and easy and already done in a big paper
serial satellite production isn't as expensive as they thought it was and Low earth orbit launch is orders of magnitude cheaper than they thought it was
Anonymous No.64067185 >>64067201 >>64071457
>>64066843
and ? China and Russia also has asat missile
so what you gonna do to stop them from swatting those out of the sky preemptively ?
Anonymous No.64067194
>>64065967
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_anti-ballistic_missile_systems
SM-3 IIA has a 21" motor and a max altitude of ~600 miles (all the way into the bottom end of MEO).
THAAD has a 13" motor and a max altitude of 90 miles (just below LEO).

That's a pretty big difference in delta-v. Think of IIA as exo-atmospheric, and THAAD as endo-atmospheric. That means SM-3 can hit mid-course targets, while THAAD can only hit terminal targets within a much smaller radius.

So, why not replace the THAAD with IIA? Well, look at the estimated prices: $12M for THAAD, vs. $28M for IIA (or $70M for GBI). You need more fuel to reach longer ranges. You need more thrust (and hence more fuel) to reach the greater speeds needed to get to those longer ranges before the inbounds can pass by. You need more structure and better materials to handle the extra speed and acceleration. It all snowballs.

And >>64065990 is correct; there was so much NIMBY that Japan gave up and decided to put all their eggs in the naval basket; this has the advantage of being mobile, but of course the disadvantage of being far easier for the enemy to suppress or destroy. It does also have a bit of an advantage in that the ships can probably be deployed off Japan's east coast and still defend the west coast from ballistic missiles, making attempts to find or kill them more difficult for the PLA.
Anonymous No.64067201
>>64067185
That's a *lot* of satellites that they have to shoot down before they can "safely" launch their ICBMs... and we'd kinda notice if they started doing that.
Anonymous No.64067638 >>64071510
>>64066775
Damn good thing the US can crank and launch LEOs then
Anonymous No.64068087 >>64068365
Russian nukes are more dangerous for Russians themselves
Anonymous No.64068365
>>64068087
>almost hit the pedestrian on crossing instead of yielding
typical third world behavior
Anonymous No.64069694 >>64073357
>>64066615
>The orbital interceptor idea is even worse arguably
How can a system meant to hit missiles in boost phase possibly be worse than one that has to cope with far more targets?
Anonymous No.64071457 >>64071496 >>64071510
>>64067185
it is simply cheaper to launch more brilliant pebbles than it is to launch asat missiles to knock them down
you can see this playing out with Starlink right now, where SpaceX have more production and launch capacity for their commsats than the rest of the world has anti-satellite missile production combined
Anonymous No.64071496 >>64071508
>>64071457
SM-3 production is only ~40-60 units per year and that includes the older variant that can only intercept a satellite at ~400-500km (and that's assuming you're directly under the orbital path of the satellite). You need the BLK IIA variant for higher orbit intercepts, and even that can only hit targets up to around 1200km. GEO satellites at 20,000km+ are likely far outside the possibility for current ASAT missiles.

Even if we include russia/chinese missiles we're probably looking at less than 100 interceptors produced per year and spaceX can launch hundreds per month.
Anonymous No.64071508 >>64071514
>>64071496
yeah, exactly
brilliant pebbles would be orbiting very low, circa 300 km, to be within the atmosphere and make them immune to orbit-denying kessler effects, so you don't actually need that big of a missile to hit them, but there's simply too many to knock down with even the most optimistic anti-sat missile production estimates
Anonymous No.64071510 >>64071531 >>64072195 >>64072232
>>64067638
If you can afford hundreds if not thousands of satellites in low orbit just to guarantee that 1 of them is in position to intercept one (1) ICBM in the boost phase, then you can afford 100 mid course interceptors to destroy that ICBM's submunitions after it separates.

Boost phase interception using orbital assets is so incredibly demanding in terms of time window before the target's boost phase ends (2-4 minutes from launch) that it is even more wildly impractical than conventional mid course or terminal interception is.

>>64071457
An orbital missile that can dive into atmo to hit an ICBM in the boost phase within a couple of minutes is a lot more complex and expensive than a small mass with a bit of maneuvering capability for course correction to complete terminal interception of a satellite. But that isn't even the biggest issue. The biggest issue is that the ASATs don't need to kill the hundreds or thousands of brilliant pebbles lotering in orbit - they just need to kill the handful that will be in position when the silos open. Being able to punch a hole and force some ICBMs through is enough to render golden dome irrelevant as a strategic game changer.
Anonymous No.64071514 >>64071531 >>64071536
>>64071508
That's a bold thing to assume china wouldn't be able to simply ramp up production
Anonymous No.64071531 >>64071856
>>64071510
you are extremely retarded because the ASAT missile and the brilliant pebble are the same basic technology lol, and bulk rideshare orbital launch is cheaper than bespoke sounding rockets in this new paradigm
>>64071514
it's a losing proposition, every ASAT missile built is a GMLRS or anti-ship missile that doesn't
brilliant pebbles is interesting because it leverages parts of the economy that typically don't get flexed in this sort of exchange
Anonymous No.64071536
>>64071514
They'd need to ramp up by a factor of 100x while also somehow managing to position their ASAT launchers near enough to the orbital path of enough satellites to make whatever attack worthwhile, which means highly distributed MASS simultaneous launches from all over the world, or slower more concentrated launches over a longer period of time which allows the US to respond (either by launching more satellites or nuking you).
Anonymous No.64071856 >>64071871
>>64071531
An ASAT needs to be launched at a target on a known predictable trajectory, then tolerate space conditions for a few minutes, and finally do a little bit of terminal guidance and course correction until it impacts the target. It doesn't need any external data link, and it doesn't need to generate power.

A brilliant pebbles style interceptor needs to be a fully self sufficient satellite with an endurance of years, attached to an orbit-to-surface rocket with huge amounts of DV to intercept a target quickly that also has all of the sensor and terminal guidance capability that the ASAT missile has. The satellite itself isn't likely to be that much cheaper than something like a Starlink satellite, and those are already over 1 million bucks a piece for semi-disposable civilian tech. Given that an SM-3 is very roughly 10 million USD and you will need roughly similar capabilities for a boost phase interceptor (plus space hardening), you are like looking at 20 million USD or more for a complete brilliant pebbles interceptor satellite. This isn't even considering the cost to get the things into orbit (which, to be fair, is relatively cheap now).

Given that you can easily require hundreds if not thousands of brilliant pebbles per ICBM just so that you will have one interceptor in position per ICBM, and the enemy only needs to destroy that one interceptor to punch a hole in your ballistic shield, the economics are incredibly against boost phase interception to a degree that makes it even more impractical than post-boost phase interception.

As for the economics, that cuts both ways. Every boost phase interceptor is one less useful weapon. What matters the most is whether it costs the enemy more than it costs you, and nuclear ballistic missile defense is incredibly in favor of the attacker.
Anonymous No.64071871 >>64071917
>>64071856
>Given that an SM-3 is very roughly 10 million USD
Anonymous No.64071917 >>64071949
>>64071871
The numbers I found from a quick search were around 10-12 mil. But hey, if it is 50 million per interceptor instead, then that price also applies to your orbit to surface interceptor that you need 1000 of per silo and that requires similar capabilities as an SM-3. Which makes the situation worse, because at that kind of price it is even more economical for the enemy to just build more ICBMs instead.
Anonymous No.64071949
>>64071917
The $10-12m figure is the price when buying the SM-3 IB in large quantities (40+ per year).

but as of FY25, production has shifted in favor of the IIA, which are ~$30M a pop, even when bought in bulk (at the moment).


Also I'm not the anon you're arguing with, just providing information.
Anonymous No.64072195 >>64072388
>>64071510
Doesn't quite work that way. A surface-based interceptor requires a solid-rocket motor with insanely high reliability, because if you need it, it absolutely *has* to work, that very instant. That's expensive.

Meanwhile, a F9 launch, because the first stage and fairings are reusable and it uses a cheaper propellant, costs the same or less than a single GBI missile. Sure, it's not 99.9999% likely to launch on command--scrubs are not all that uncommon, and are usually fixed within an hour, or at most within a week--but it doesn't *have* to be.

That means you can cheap out on the launches, and focus your money on a megaconstellation of sensors and space-based interceptors, each of which should be substantially lighter, smaller, and cheaper than a surface-based one.
Anonymous No.64072232 >>64072388
>>64071510
I should add that your last concern is complicated by the fact that they'd have to shoot down a bunch of Pebbles that were thousands of miles away from their shores in order for a hole to open up over your silos. Or, are you envisioning the anti-Pebble missiles launching just a few seconds ahead of the ICBMs and trying to clear a path just in front of them? I can see how that might theoretically work, but it seems fraught with chances for failure, and your ASAT missiles have to have the same reliability (and therefore cost) as a surface-based ABM... which means it's cheaper to launch and maintain a megaconstellation of Pebbles.
Anonymous No.64072266
>>64062900 (OP)
I am entering the thread without reading it.
I am going to greentext

>uhuhuhu secret nukes
>The RFR got the funny end of the stick during an ongoing conflict, concerning the topic of defense.

Never ever going to read the thread, because it's full of
>haha
and
>ehehe

This is a troll post.
Anonymous No.64072388 >>64072887 >>64074624
>>64072195
I treated the cost of payload to orbit as negligible. Compared to the cost of any form of satellite, it basically is nothing nowadays.

A high performance rocket capable of loitering in space for 5 years then diving onto an ICBM and within a couple of minutes on remote command is going to be really expensive. Depending on how much delta-v it needs and how sophisticated its sensors are, it might be more or less expensive than a ground based launcher that doesn't require any of that (but that requires a radar based sensor and maybe more fuel), but it isn't going to be dramatically less when satellites are basically always in the millions of dollars. With how many interceptors are required to have one in the interception envelope, this is a serious problem with the economic viability of space based interceptors.

Reliability wise, boost phase interception requires at best the same reliability compared to non-boost phase interception, because you only get one shot at the boost phase. The engine on your orbital interceptor rocket suffers from all the same stringent "has to work" requirements as a ground based one.

>>64072232
Intercepting them as the ICBMs fly is likely a bit too ambitious for a couple of reasons, but it is relatively trivial to work out which interceptors will be able to intercept at what times at weeks in advance, making it practical to coordinate an ASAT attack either 90 minutes or 1 day in advance of the intended launch time. This would give obvious advance warning so a successful counter-force first strike is off the cards, but frankly those aren't winnable anyway for any first or second rate nuclear power even if they have complete surprise so it doesn't really matter - the point is that the US likely won't be able to stop a hostile nuclear power from getting at least a few nukes through its shield even during a second strike, which makes the political value of such a shield over existing BMD extremely dubious.
Anonymous No.64072887
>>64072388
>This would give obvious advance warning so a successful counter-force first strike is off the cards
US could guarantee a successful counterforce strike since the early 2000s at the latest.
>but frankly those aren't winnable anyway
lmao
Anonymous No.64073357 >>64073376
>>64069694
because it would encourage the enemy to spam cruise missiles or suitcase nukes instead, so you get 0 protection instead of 30% or whatever.
Anonymous No.64073376
>>64073357
>spam cruise missiles
are even easier to defend against
>suitcase nukes
completely retarded on many levels

ICBMs are a thing in the first place because they are the most surefire way to deliver nukes anywhere on earth reliably in meaningful numbers.
Anonymous No.64074310
The United States spends a bit over 50 million a year maintaining it's nukes
the entire Russian military budget is about 145 million
I'd bet money they're scared as shit at the possibility of finding out how many of their nukes actually still work
Anonymous No.64074314 >>64074384
The United States spends a bit over 50 billion a year maintaining it's nukes
the entire Russian military budget is about 145 billion
I'd bet money they're scared as shit at the possibility of finding out how many of their nukes actually still work
Anonymous No.64074384 >>64074527
>>64074314
Much of the US budget goes to pedophilic billionaires who live in Tel Aviv. I have questions as to how much is spent on "maintenance".
Anonymous No.64074416 >>64074442
>64074384
This is what is called a cope post from a zigger that can't handle any criticism of mother russia.
Anonymous No.64074422
>>64062908
Been looking for this, forgot to save it the first time around.
Would you happen to have videos of all the other recent russian missile test failures?
Anonymous No.64074431 >>64075537
>>64062927
>Against live targets those numbers drop to about a tenth though.
Considering no one has ever used an ICBM "live" that figure is 10000% an asspull
Anonymous No.64074442
>>64074416
He fucked kids on that island
Anonymous No.64074503
>>64062900 (OP)
The US has had all of Russia's launch silo's tagged years ago and has multiple assets watching around the clock for a launch. Not only will they know when a launch happens before the missile leaves the silo, they can track and eliminate within 2 mins of it taking off. This can be done with anything from traditional missile platforms, Leonidas, Anduril drones, and finally Surprise mousekatools installed on old converted satellites.
Anonymous No.64074527
>>64074384
Oh, just shut the fuck up, you can't even mount a proper dissinformation campaign despite all the money retards such as Merkel threw at you.
Anonymous No.64074624 >>64075526 >>64078032
>>64072388
A Pebble already has 8km/s of velocity. You just need to issue orders to some that happen to be in the right place at the right time (which is why you need a megaconstellation). You don't have to hit the ICBM as it comes out of the silo; wait for it to reach the edge of the atmosphere and hit it near end of boost-phase or during mid-course.

All of this reduces the size of the motor required. Instead of a GBI, you can get away with something maybe closer to the KKV on top of it. At least, that's my speculation based on what Pebbles were supposed to be like back in the '80s. I am willing to be corrected on this point if anybody knows the hard math on this.

Now, a massive ASAT attack 90 minutes or 1 day in advance is a good way to get preempted, as you mention. I'm not sure what you gain if you eat a bunch of Tridents and maybe even some conventional TLAMs or JASSMs all over your silos while you're waiting for the hole you blew open to reach your silos.

Finally, I wouldn't argue for Pebbles as the only system. Multiple options is good. IIA looks particularly good, as there should be a few ships in the major ports most of the time, and if they can all talk to the Dome's sensor/comms network, that should dramatically reduce some of their targeting and tracking limitations (e.g., the need for a second ship over the horizon). I still expect ground-based interceptors to have a much higher purchase price than Pebbles, though.
Anonymous No.64075526
>>64074624
you understand
Anonymous No.64075537
>>64074431
Even his test intercept figures are a fantasy.
Anonymous No.64078032 >>64078039 >>64078070
>>64074624
Pebbles is pure fantasy. Realistically speaking it couldn't intercept maneuverable targets whether they are going up or down. That would need a constellation closer to 160k than 1.6k.
It could only intercept unmaneuvering ballistic projectiles slowly falling back to Earth from MEO altitudes.

The orbital velocity which enables the whole system is also a huge problem. Any maneuvering target has a huge advantage against LEO satellites bound to extremely fast orbital velocity vector. It's a game of reaction speed and when you're moving 8 meters every millisecond, you automatically lose without magical instant impulse thrusters. Or a crystal ball to see the future.
Anonymous No.64078039 >>64078050
>>64078032
skill issue
Anonymous No.64078047
>>64062900 (OP)
I'mma, *deep inhale* NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOK!
Anonymous No.64078050 >>64078053
>>64078039
Pebbles was cancelled because of said "skill issue"
Anonymous No.64078053 >>64078116
>>64078050
it was cancelled because the MIC didn't know how to launch or produce shit for cheap
Anonymous No.64078070 >>64078116
>>64078032
>maneuverable targets
>unmaneuvering ballistic projectiles
does this coping nigger know what ICBMs carry or did being scared shitless of pebbles fry his brain?
Anonymous No.64078095
>>64062900 (OP)
>Can the Aegis system shoot down nukes launched at us by Russia?
depends what part of the trajectory but a simple answer is yes they have decent chance of destrying them
Anonymous No.64078116 >>64078359
>>64078053
Exactly, and a constellation of 160k remains firmly in the realm of "way too fucking expensive".
Besides, the whole program was pure science fantasy. They were supposed to eventually be an autonomous network deciding what to intercept on their own. Good luck with that, surely nothing can go wrong and result in kessler syndrome rofl

>>64078070
Brilliant pebbles was designed to be a boost phase interceptor. Any booster rocket that can stay on course can also maneuver enough by necessity. It would be just a matter of tweaking the guidance software and adding sensors. Very cheap counter for an expensive constellation. Not a favorable outcome in an arms race.
Like I said, even a small constellation like the initially planned 1600 could feasibly intercept limited numbers of RVs slowly falling down (which would have been a more realistic design goal) but not MaRVs if they have exoatmospheric maneuvering thrusters rather than just fins.
Anonymous No.64078120
>>64062917
Go get a liast of Russian towns with apopulatoion of more than 50000 and add up the population, its about 85% and can be eliminated by just two salvos from a french and briish nuclear submarine.

The Russians forgot. They lost the cold war because they could not match the wests nuclear weaponry, innovation or economy. It's not a game of equals and has not been since about 1986m headig towards 50 years ago. Your infographic sums up what I am saying nicely. The really hilarious part is the russians for tehir own retarded reason have situated every barracks, airfield, command centre and logistics hum and port on a map overlapping the target list that wipes out 85% of their population.
Anonymous No.64078359 >>64078439
>>64078116
>result in kessler syndrome rofl
Kessler syndrome is completely fake at low enough altitudes (below 400 km) due to the cleaning effects of the upper atmosphere
to avoid misfires just don't maneuver to hit any signatures that don't have a fuck-huge infrared signature, plus screen for known spaceflight launches that are all communicated way ahead of time
>1600 interceptors
a reasonable buildout considering Starship's capabilities (near future capabilities) would be 8000 interceptors with maybe a few hundred sensing and communications satellites embedded in with the interceptors
Anonymous No.64078439 >>64079234 >>64079333
>>64078359
1. Nobody's saying kessler syndrome is permanent.
2. Again, PB was estimated to actually need 160000 pebbles, not the initially planned 1600.

Every argument about fast orbital decay just makes the constellation more expensive to maintain. It's a compromise starlink already explored and set a real-life precedent. Autonomous swarm constellation two orders of magnitude denser than starlink would be a nightmare in and of itself. And imagine the political fallout when it decides to target a sussy civilian launch lol

It's a quite unfeasible system when looked at from first principles, the orbital mechanics of it, even in a vacuum. Then you factor in it actually existing around earth with other human space activity and it's lol, just lol
Anonymous No.64079234
>>64078439
>sussy civilian launch
those don't exist, at worst you'd blow up some Chinese military launch that they didn't tell anybody about ahead of time and, honestly, good job
Anonymous No.64079333
>>64078439
>Again, PB was estimated to actually need 160000 pebbles,
Proof?