Thread 64205664

Are doorbells /k/ now?

>>64205664 (OP)
Would've gotten me too

>>64205664 (OP)
how long is this war going to gone on for ?

>>64205664 (OP)
I honestly think a DO NOT PRESS text would make it even likelier that someone would press it

Ngl if i was walking in forest and saw a doorbell on a tree i wouldve also test it.

>>64205664 (OP)
This is old, it was pre-Bakhmut iirc. Somewhere north of Soledar? Anyway. It's actually real. Since OP didn't include it, here's the actual doorbell bomb in question, after Ukies set it up. This was photographed by Ukies and uploaded like 2 weeks before the OP video lmao

>>64205764
I wouldn't be surprised if we are looking at another year, but something is going to give soon I think.

>>64205829
But i was told it was a 3 day special military operation?

>>64205764
>>64205829
Russia is most likely too destabilized for Putin to make a peace deal without losing power. Hence why they're still making the same set of demands they first set forth in March 2022, when they were still at Kyiv's gates. So, until Putin croaks, the chances of a peace deal are minimal, even with Russia in this meat grinder of unsupported infantry assaults and their 14:1 casualty ratio.

Ukraine, on the other hand, has no domestic appetite for peace either. A recent poll showed that, for the very first time, less than half of Ukrainians would be opposed to a concession... of 2014 borders Donetsk, which is currently a depopulated and war-ravaged hellhole.

>>64205764
depends if Euro countries get involved i wouldnt count on US forces especially if jeet-d vance takes charge after trump dies

>>64205664 (OP)
>And the "garland" exploded. Well, whoever knows what a garland is knows.
why do slavs always, always, always talk in this obnoxious manner

>>64205862
ukraine can not afford a cease fire and demobilzation now because russians will simply regroup and attack probably with larger north kroean force now

if any cease fire happens ukraine needs to quickly build defense and build a rigid conscription much like the swiss
Euro coalition help would help as well

>>64205832
There never was an oxcart of shit.
>>64205862
Yes, my I think their economy is going to give out. They have already started cutting back on military spending which is saying something. It will be interesting to see what Ukraine gets up to with their new cruise missiles come winter.

>>64205963
>ukraine can not afford a cease fire and demobilzation now because russians will simply regroup and attack probably with larger north kroean force now
Correct, purely from a strategic standpoint. However Russia has dug itself into a hole by ramping up the ultranationalist propaganda and overheating the economy. A few months of ceasefire could be enough to radically destabilize russia, which is probably why they've aggressively resisted US calls for a ceasefire, despite the obvious strategic advantage it would bring.

>>64205958
it's about the same as
>welp, you know what that means

>>64205760
I would have told my battle buddy, "Look, I know thats an IED... but someone has to. Tell my family im a giant retard. Stand back and good luck bro."

>>64205664 (OP)
Intrusive thoughts harvesting device.

>>64205764
Well if it's true that there's 7 flamingos built a day I wouldn't be surprised if the Russian collapse accelerates much faster than I thought it would. I had assumed the war would still be going on for at least another year or two, but if Ukraine can go from "hurting refineries once a week or so" to "absolutely fucking refineries every single day" that will likely end up pushing things beyond the rate that Russia is able to bandaid the issues. And if things go from "gas rationing" to "NO gas" during winter? hehehehehe

>>64205958
I presume "garland" is a wonky translation of slang for blasting cord or some other string of explosives on a long fuse.

>>64205764
>how long is this war going to gone on for ?
Until 1917. Not a revolutionary movement (at most we might see a Clankening with Tiananmen Square Massacre characteristics) but things could get bad enough internally that the leadership gets very antsy about the idea of having hundreds of thousands of soldiers with negative morale deployed far away from Moscow and near poorly-defended critical infrastructure. It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility - if things got bad enough - for some soldiers to seize rail yards and refineries and whatnot and say "we'll leave when you pay us and let us go home". If the Russians collapse it will be abrupt and sharp thanks to their organizational structure. The colonels will bail, which will make the majors bail, which will make the captains bail, and so on until there's nobody left to whip the mobiks and the mobiks flee.

>>64205862
>Ukraine, on the other hand, has no domestic appetite for peace either. A recent poll showed that, for the very first time, less than half of Ukrainians would be opposed to a concession... of 2014 borders Donetsk, which is currently a depopulated and war-ravaged hellhole.
Yeah, I think they're smelling the blood in the water at this point. If they sue for peace then Russia will almost certainly get to keep most or all of what it already has just because they already have it. Putin has staked his legitimacy and legacy on the annexation of Donbabwe and Luganda so he would rather mulch every fighting-age male in the country than give them up but if Ukraine can out-last Russia to the point where Russia is incapable of prosecuting the war then there's a non-zero chance of not only pushing the Russians back to the '14 borders but even the '91 borders. It's still very much building castles in the sky at this point but if, for example, the Russian forces in the southeast collapse hard enough and the Ukrainians finally destroy the bridge then the clock starts ticking for ALL of Crimea.

>>64206054
It's literally "a decoration of rope or cord hung on a tree" so yeah, you could absolutely make a Christmas tree with det cord

>>64206044
The winter is going to be interesting, that's for sure. I think a major wild card is going to be if the government will let tsar monke push the big red button instead of admitting defeat because things might legitimately get to that point sooner or later. Everything that Putin has is currently riding on some sort of finalized Russian success in Ukraine and I think he might be willing and dumb enough to detonate a nuke as a "warning" and at that point all bets are off.

>>64206054
it's not a wonky translation; a common ambush tactic of laying mines along a trail to catch many groups in one coordinated series of blasts has been referred to as a "string", "garland", or "necklace" of mines
quite common in Cold War books

there's a webm somewhere of a Russian column getting hit by one such ambush

This was the most recent best 3 days of the internet I remember

>>64206103
Even if they are ziggers Russians are still, allegedly, humans. Just because monke is delusional enough to push the red button instead of accepting defeat it doesn't mean that his underlings will be willing to die for it, because the ones who actually have to launch the nook will KNOW that the retaliation will be absolute and unstoppable.
There's plenty of historical precedence for authoritarian leaders learning the hard way that their "loyal" underlings are fully capable of flipping the second they are personally threatened, the cronies monke surrounds him with are not the peasants he sends to die, they are oligarchs who have things they stand to lose if he goes full retard.
And when Monke is the one to commit suicide by bullet to the back of his head while falling out a window, the whiplash from "Putin is national hero and savior of puccia!" to "Putin was a wrecker and probably CIA plant, he should be fed to pigs" will be fast enough it'll make Stalin spin in his grave fast enough you could wrap him in copper and power the entire country.

>>64205958
>why do slavs always talk in this obnoxious manner
>simple IYKYK

>>64206180
As a reminder for everyone, here is how Russian Dear Leaders and Heroes of the People are remembered.

>Lenin alive “Lenin is a hero, the wise leader of the people.”
>Lenin dead “Lenin was a wrecker and Western agent.”

>Stalin alive “Stalin is a hero, the wise leader of the people.”
>Stalin dead “Stalin was a wrecker and Western agent.”

>Khrushchev alive “Khrushchev is a hero, the wise leader of the people.”
>Khrushchev dead “Khrushchev was a wrecker and Western agent.”

>Brezhnev alive “Brezhnev is a hero, the wise leader of the people.”
>Brezhnev dead “Brezhnev was a wrecker and Western agent.”

>Andropov alive “Andropov is a hero, the wise leader of the people.”
>Andropov dead “Andropov was a wrecker and Western agent.”

>Chernenko alive “Chernenko is a hero, the wise leader of the people.”
>Chernenko dead “Chernenko was a wrecker and Western agent.”

>Gorbachev alive “Gorbachev is a hero, the wise leader of the people.”
>Gorbachev dead “Gorbachev was a wrecker and Western agent.”

>Yeltsin alive “Yeltsin is a hero, the wise leader of the people.”
>Yeltsin dead “Yeltsin was a wrecker and Western agent.”

>Putin alive “Putin is a hero, the wise leader of the people.”
Hmmmmmmmmmm

>>64206212
With how deep in the shitters Russia and its reputation are thanks to Putin, I almost find that narrative believable

>>64206221
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

>>64206103
>>64206180
I think Putin will press the button and the rocket will fly, sadly.
What most people still don't understand and I had a hard timei understanding it as well, is that Putin is the most lucid mandman there is. He is not Adolf, who told Mussolini that he's possesed by some aryan spirit or some petty congo war criminal eating kids.
He in all honesty KNOWS he is going to save Russia, because he's the main character. He's like some medieval king in an heroic epic, doing what needs to be done to make Russia great.
Siegfried killed a Dragon, robbed a dwarf, raped the queen of iceland for his pal and then roflstomped the enemies of burgund.
Putin is someone like that, in his head. The mobiks getting raped, blown up or robbed? All part of the story. The misery in russia, the smoking accidents, the lost stockpiles, all part of the story.
Once the narrative reaches the point where the nukes have to fly, they will. And all the silovik retards will clap happily.

>>64206221
>Narrative
All politicians pass the buck as far back as they can but, as with many things, the Soviets did it with unique zeal.

>>64206103
He won't do shit

>>64206054
>>64206071
>>64206122
>I presume "garland" is a wonky translation of slang for blasting cord or some other string of explosives on a long fuse.
Wait, couldn't it be a wonky translation for 'daisy chain'?

>>64206014
That should be in some MW specops mission.

>>64206314
Being delusional does not make you bulletproof, and monke is not going to be the one who is physically launching the nukes.
Not only that, but I honestly and truly believe that Russia does not have any working nukes left simply because nooks are literally the perfect target for Russian style neglect and corruption.
>Things with absurdly huge budgets that will never actually be used and are top secret so most people will never actually even look at them to know what kind of condition they are in with a large chain of command that can take little nibbles out of the budget every step of the way until you have nukes being maintained by Ziggers being paid pennies for their work with inadequate tools, training, and education on how to even maintain it anyways
>Commander in charge of nukes? He thinks "well it's not like we are actually ever going to use these things, so I think I can justify this new yacht using the budget!"
>Engineer in charge under the commander thinks "well I know my boss already embezzled some of the funds for it, so it's fine if I skim a bit more off the top so I can upgrade to a nicer dacha. Besides we have thousands of nooks, one skipping some non critical maintenance won't hurt"
>Officer at the actual nuke facility say "well this is a top secret facility, there won't be any inspectors or anything and I heard my boss say skipping a bit of maintenance won't hurt, so I think it's fine if I use a bit of the budget to get a new lada"
>Soldiers at the facility know the place is a dump and nobody cares about maintenance anyways, so surely nobody will mind if they take a bit of gasoline from the maintenance vehicles to trade in town for some vodka
>Janitors at the base see the place is a dump and the soldiers are siphoning gas from those old abandoned maintenance vehicles, so I guess they must not need them. It won't hurt if I strip the copper wires from them to sell for some heroin

And then we get a webm of the missile exploding on launch lmao

>>64205764
Well, let’s see here. They’re Slavs, so even literal chimpanzees are more capable of waging a competent war than either side here. Not factoring in outside help, carry the 2… how long did the Yugoslav wars last, again?

>>64206054
It was literally just a bomb strapped to a tree >>64205815 and he pressed the detonator out of sheer curiosity

>>64207464
Yes, a big ass pile of det cord would in fact be a bomb.

>>64206014
You would be the first soldier to win the Special Olympics version of the Medal of the Honor

>>64207067
I have legit thought about taking an electrical box and carving it in some mountain face one day. Imagine trekking through the middle of nowhere and finding that shit.

>>64206178
I've been off, what else happened in the last three days

>>64205764
Russia has spent the last year gearing the economy for the long haul and Ukrainians aren't about to surrender so this could be 10+ years if we keep being little bitches putting conditions on the little aid we give.

>>64205815
Anyone that says they wouldn't press this is lying to themselves.

I really want to give people the benefit of doubt but, nah. How many would this actually get.

>>64208190
>10 year forever war of retards getting droned
Do it again FPV Fedir

>>64205764
Longer than WW1 and 2 just for the sake of Russian embarrassment.

>>64208190
>Russia has spent the last year gearing the economy for the long haul
lol

>>64208466
I hate ziggers but I'll give them credit, installing Trump was a master stroke.

>>64207260
Don't act so superior, Addie. I seem to remember a little trolling going on in the East.

>>64206212
In fairness Gorbachev was a wrecker and Western agent.

>>64208495
Gorbachyov was the only sane man in the asylum.
Unfortunately, the inmates had long taken over by the time he decided to implement reforms.
Brejnev's era set in the rot, and The (metaphorical) Year Of The Two Emperors sealed its fate.

>>64208742
There was also Yeltsin, whose entire worldview shattered after visiting a grocery store in a random Texas suburb and realizing the average American eats better than the soviet elites. Unfortunately, the ziggery around him turned him to alcohol to cope

>>64208742
>Gorbachyov was the only sane man in the asylum.
Nah, he wanted to keep things going, just with a little less censorship and gulag. Problem was, once people could see how shit the USSR was, nobody wanted to keep it any more, and without the threat of gulag for noooooticing, it was all doomed.
>>64209530
>There was also Yeltsin
He was an alcoholic long before he saw those well-stocked cooler cases full of frozen dinners. He was also the one who put Putin into a position to take over.

>>64206069
>It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility - if things got bad enough - for some soldiers to seize rail yards and refineries and whatnot and say "we'll leave when you pay us and let us go home"
The thing I wonder about this kind of 1918 German Revolution style insurrection, is
1) could this be used as an offramp out of the war like it ended up being for Germany in the Great War, and
2) who would be scapegoating who? in 1918 the German High Command threaded a fine needle and managed to dump the blame onto both the (at this point powerless civilian gov't) and the "revolutionaries" in what was admittedly a slick move, with things timed in a way where it looked like they were the ones making the treaty. How could you do this in Russia though? It'd require giving power, even if a little, even if only temporarily, to someone else, and even then- Putin IS the gov't.
>inb4 Russian Cognitive Dissonance kicks in and everyone just repeats "The Good Tsar" myth.

>>64211675
>Nah, he wanted to keep things going, just with a little less censorship and gulag. Problem was, once people could see how shit the USSR was, nobody wanted to keep it any more, and without the threat of gulag for noooooticing, it was all doomed.
The point is that Gorby did actually have the idea of trying to slowly, incrementally fix things. Unfortunately for him it couldn't be fixed at that point; everything only worked because people pretended it worked.

>>64211731
It seems to me that all you'd need to do to spark it is find some disgruntled but ambitious middle management type officer who's in a position to bully his slaves into obeying, then psyop him into thinking he's gonna make it big if he can be the one that's "hero of the Russian people" by ending the war.
After all if some poor mobiks who don't even want to be there are told to surrender, or hell just not told there is an enemy battalion coming to occupy their base and they don't have access to any of their weapons, "I was ordered to" is all the justification they will need to surrender. Once again the Russian system of top down military command shows a critical flaw.

I'd be willing to bet that if you found some mid-level officer who hates his job and life and told him that if he works together with the west and doesn't fuck them over he'd get 100% full amnesty, citizenship in whatever Western nation he wanted for him and his family, and I dunno 10 pounds of gold he would jump at the opportunity... As soon as he is convinced it's not a FSB Honeypot anyway. That last bit is the hard part, even as someone in America I generally think that if something seems too good to be true it probably is, and that's without FSB glowies vanning people left and right using honeypots the sound exactly like this deal.