Thread 64382836

How will China's rare earth export restrictions going to affect US military's development of next gen fighters, warships and submarines?

Why are you so butthurt, chink?

>>64382837
>Why are you so butthurt, chink?
t.

>>64382865
Chinese would literally die in droves from starvation in hot war

>>64382836 (OP)
They will have to buy their REM from us instead
word to my seppo brothers, dropping tariffs against us would be a good first step

>>64382865
Do you niggers just not even try to keep up the facade anymore?

>>64382836 (OP)
You know the USGS publishes a report on the US reserves of discovered and recoverable rare earth metals (and every other type of mineral resource you can think of) right? Maybe you should read it.

Its free on their website

>>64382836 (OP)
The rare earth restrictions are more of a short term annoyance than anything, China doesn't have uniquely rich reserves of them or anything they're just able to pursue development without having to placate environmentalists. The DPA is almost certainly going to be invoked here and most all regulations will be waived so long as the resources in question are labeled critical for national security (obviously true). The Democrats likely won't even oppose this, Biden actually took similar steps in 2022, one of the few things I'll give him credit for. China did something kind of retarded here in that they also applied the export restrictions to literally every other country they also don't like as well, giving the US and Trump an excuse to both 1) end the current trade war with the EU and other western aligned nations and 2) incentivize even greater economic partnership among western nations. You'll recall a few months ago some of the Europeans were saying they'd just go be partners with China now after what Trump did with tariffs, that is not happening now. It probably never was going to but China has showed its hand here, for real. I believe Trump's correct when he says they obviously planned this for years.
I'd say the odds of an invasion of Taiwan are now higher than ever. I think Xi is having a realization similar to what Putin had before 2022 in that his time to leave a legacy is running out, and he's hoping to go down in history as the man who got revenge on the West for the Century of Humiliation.

>>64382927
>>64382931
Except that they a dominance in REE refinement. They have the personnel, the facilities, the machinery and the know how.
That's why despite Venezuela having the largest reserves of oil in the world their production is shit

>>64382931
>I'd say the odds of an invasion of Taiwan are now higher than ever. I think Xi is having a realization similar to what Putin had before 2022 in that his time to leave a legacy is running out, and he's hoping to go down in history as the man who got revenge on the West for the Century of Humiliation.
Honestly, we should just "help" Taiwan get the bomb the same way we "helped" Israel and China "helped" North Korea. Put an end to this invasion nonsense once and for all, save a democracy and ensure a continued chip supply. If anything Japan and South Korea should have them too, no 1st world democracy should have live next to a China, at the least they should be properly armed.

>>64382945
Fortunately, you can build refinement capacity. You cannot build reserves.

>>64382945
This is true, but really there isn't a reason the West can't just build more refineries. We know how to do it, we invented 99% of this shit, many of the people who did so in the past are still alive. You don't even really need to do it in the US, though it'd be preferable. Poland stands out as a nation that'd be just about perfect, friendly government, lower labor costs, more permissive business environment, etc. We'll be fine

>>64382960
Easier said than done

>>64382836 (OP)
Why are tomahawks listed for the Virginias but not Burkes? Burkes carry a solid chunk of them.

>>64382945
>That's why despite Venezuela having the largest reserves of oil in the world their production is shit
Venezuela suffers from having the most abysmal dogshit heavy crude on the planet that no one wants to refine.

>>64382968
We retooled our entire hydrocarbon refining and midstream industry in about 6 years after the shale revolution. Maybe it's just hard for you? Sounds like a skill issue

>>64382945
>Except that they a dominance in REE refinement
This isnt hard to do at all. Its mildly inconvenient if you want to be ecologically friendly about it. Thats it.
China chooses to do the quickest, cheapest, and by extension, the most polluting methods. Other arnt willing to do this.
There is a reason why most of china industrial regions have purple rivers and permanent smog that hangs like a silent hill video game

>>64382956
Japan is likely never happening for obvious reasons but SK could maybe be convinced. I think they're worried about retaliation from the North, which is somewhat understandable. The new Japanese PM is extremely receptive to the idea of amending the constitution to remove article 9 and that's where we should start. Japan should be building 5 hulls of something equivalent to size and role of the Nimitz class by the end of next year.

>>64382976
Actually, there happens to be one country nearby that has massive coastal refinery infrastructure specifically meant for that oil. Probably nothing, I wouldn't worry about it.

>>64382931
China has by far the most REO reserves. And in practice, it's how much you can mine + refine. China dominates both. Best the US can do is spend huge amounts of money to develop its own mining for much smaller reserves and it's own refinement capacity.

>>64382979
Since It was easy to make the change in hydrocarbon refinement which the US hasn't stopped investing and developing since the first reserves were discovered vs REE refinement which China has almost complete dominance in personnel and machinery since they were the ones exclusively tasked to do It?

>>64382836 (OP)
Just wait until the chinks drop the Tugsten card

>>64382999
if you sic the army corps of engineers at the problem you can build a nuclear plant in 2 years instead of 20 it takes during peacetime

>>64382997
Not all reserves are known, and there are obviously more efforts to locate reserves in countries that currently do more mining. This doesn't really say much, the US has not done widespread rare earth mining in over 40 years.

>>64383001
Again, identified reserves do not equal total reserves.

>>64382865
if your men aren't fat hunks of shit, you aren't a modern military

>>64383004
>if you sic the army corps of engineers at the problem you can build a nuclear plant in 2 years instead of 20 it takes during peacetime
You sure about that?

>>64383001
Just wait until the world turns to the US and its allies to band together for solutions to cut out and replace china completely.

This whole Chinese tariff thing was such a massive screw up. All it did was make trump stronger and prove him right at a time where counties are largely annoyed with him.

>>64382931
>he's hoping to go down in history as the man who got revenge on the West for the Century of Humiliation.
Getting the "Great Conqueror" achievement is more of a Western ideal. The bug people prefer "Bring of Prosperity and Peace". But just like with the Monkey King, it all depends on how big an echo chamber full of sycophants Xi has built for himself by now

>>64382997
Those graphs always make me laugh. It's like saying I have more coin money than Bill Gates... since I actually ocassionally look in my couch/pockets.

Proven reserves means nothing, only production output + how long is the lead time, does.

>>64383017
You mean the same allies that Trump has sidelined, threated to annex and throw out of NATO since he took office in his second term?

>>64382960
>>64382967
>>64382982
Y'all retarded. Actual situation is
>China has by far the largest reserves in the world
>China has by far the largest refinement capacity in the world
>Chinese rare earth ore is much higher quality
>Averages 6-7% rare earth content, plus assorted more valuable rare earth clays
>The only active US mine is Mountain Pass, which has 6% concentration (also the only reason it is viable)
>Brook Mine, the first rare earth mine opened in the US in 70 years, has an average quality of 0.45%, which is fucking dogshit
>The US can never match the refinement capacity and cost of the US because they can only get their hands on small quantities of high quality ores and a lot of dogshit ore
>Leads to poor economies of scale, making refinement more expensive
>No commerical customer will buy rare Earths that are 10x more experience except the military
>US rare earth production will remain small

>>64383016
This was never a good idea and was a desperate move by the Biden administration to try and placate leftists before the election. Literally no engineers in the world could've made it work with the resources made available to them

>>64383017
Really does seem like they overplayed their hand here unless they're serious about going hot. Trump can also use this as an opportunity to save face and back out of the trade skirmishes with the EU/other allies in the name of uniting against a common enemy. I think he's smart enough to take that, but we'll see

>>64382999
I mean we actually built it out even faster when it was a brand new capability. Same with uranium enrichment, aluminum/bauxite refining, ammonia/ammonium synthesis, and about a billion other things. If motivated by the market the USA is pretty monstrous at acquiring new ways to make money. So the brilliant Chinese decided to make the US market highly motivated to replace one of Chinas only currently unique exports. Great plan Xi

>>64382979
The shale boom was caused by OPEC. Their supply cuts caused oil to reach 100+/barrel, which made investing in shale commercially viable. They then tried to reverse course but it was too late.

>>64383025
>The US can never match the refinement capacity and cost of the US
>10x more experience
Are your hands shaking, chinkshill? Calm down and take some time to write your post out properly. Regardless, the US does not need to even necessarily expand mining capacity all that much so long as it expands refinement capacity, something not limited by local reserves. China is still an export-dependent economy, and this hurts them too. Chinese factories have profit margins of no better than 10% with basically no exceptions. The government has spent untold wealth on industrial subsidies in order to gain leverage in situations like this, sure, but it was never free. The second their pool of customers begins to shrink instead of grow they're totally fucked.

>>64383005
Even if it's found, the only way production increases is if the government kicks in tens of billions to prop up the industry.
>>64383020
Production in the US is also dogshit. The argument that you pray 10x more reserves exist, and China finds no new ones, is retarded. And that also doesn't fix the refinement problem.

>>64383023
Yes, those the very same.
Those are also the same people who will now gladly work with the US for solutions now that china is proving itself to be even more unstable and unreliable. No one HAS to buy from rare earths from China, its just been the cheapest and easiest way to do it thus far. The market will adapt and new players will fill the void. The US will gladly help counties cut their reliance on china lmao
Crazy to me that people think the US doesnt understand whats going on kek. Didnt Ukraine just sign over its rare earth rights over to the US?

>>64383027
>common enemy
The first step in persuading people someone else is your common enemy is to not hit them over the head and threaten them to fall in line "or else".

All Trump did was convince other countries to start backing away and take an "uninvolved/third party" approach to any future conflict between the US and China. No one ever got better by driving their friends away.

>>64382836 (OP)
Isn't this literally the plot to Black Ops 2?

>>64382867
With 1.5 billion other chinsects to eat as emergency rations they are effectively guaranteed a decisive Tang victory.

>>64383033
Partially yes. That was the market motivation. But it was Mitchell who actually figured out how to couple horizontal drilling with hydraulic fracturing. They probably would have just stayed a niche player if OPEC hadn't set their rates so high though. As soon as he proved you could do it at a break even price well below Brent or WTI spot price, it was pretty inevitable.

There is also a weird second or third order effect that due to the great financial crisis of 2008 there was a lot of loose capital looking for safe harbor so the small unconventional operators got a massive infusion of capital very early on

>>64383030
No, the market for rare earths is dogshit. Chinese producers sell rare earths at a far lower cost. What Xi is doing is making it commercially unviable to use rare earths in the US. The US is only a minority consumer globally. Because it's upstream of a ton of electronics, it's done so production moves out of the US. And Cheeto man is ironically helping Xi because he is closing off imports with tariffs.

>>64382836 (OP)
Not rare enough to have signifigant impacts on production, the costs, however much more they may be, will get dwarved by the potential costs savings from the use of rare elemental metals & etc...

Many new deposits are actively being discovered, so even if China shuts down exports, they will have everything to lose and very little to gain. Especially long term.

Copy and pasting something I wrote earlier

You chinks really shot yourselves in the foot by trying to use something that isn't even rare as a bargaining chip and now they've spooked the whole world into ramping production away from China as fast as possible.
Hell, even the euros including the frogs are getting into it. You'd think that they wouldn't use REEs card without the imminent threat of war, y'know, stop selling them so people can't stockpile, considering that refining isn't constrained to something like sulfides taking 3 years with heap leaching, but nope, it's something that can be infinitely ramped up, scaled and parallelized.
So now you've got countries with stockpiles and dozens of new plants coming online in 2026 and 2027. To be fair, it's not something new either. The US has invested something like half a billion directly into refining since 2020.

>>64383036
And whose ore will be refined? China produces the significance majority of it. And Trump has started trade wars with most of the world, which makes the very low margin business worse.

>Chinkshill
Lol this is a hilarious American cope. You can't even use 4chan in china.

I like how the cope is just basically
>y-you shouldn't pursuit your own rare earth industry because w-I meant china makes it not viable! Don't even try! Stop please!

>>64383025
>The only active US mine is Mountain Pass

Notice how he doesn't mention the one (1) US mine is the single largest proven reserve of rare earth's on the planet and this one (1) mine provides like 16% of the entire global supply. Alone.

I've seen this argument where niggers say China can cut off rare earth minerals and tungsten therefore they win. But get pissed when you point out that the US could just do it on their own.

>>64383053
So you're acting as if it's prohibitively expensive like helium mining or something. REE ores are not rare. Just look at the profit margins for Malaysian and US refining and final costs per ton. Not much difference.

>>64383020
>Getting the "Great Conqueror" achievement is more of a Western ideal. The bug people prefer "Bring of Prosperity and Peace"
I don't think this is really that true, Wolf Warrior style ideology is relatively popular. They're like that when it comes to domestic politics and history sure, but the Chinese are pretty nationalistic and hawkish when it comes to foreign policy at the current moment.
>But just like with the Monkey King, it all depends on how big an echo chamber full of sycophants Xi has built for himself by now
He's done a lot of purges, some for ostensibly anti-corruption purposes, but I find it hard to believe the corrupt generals and officials were replaced by anyone other than sycophants. If you wanted to be cynical, you could say it was the entire point given the seemingly selective nature of which parts got purged.

>>64383037
>the only way production increases is if the government kicks in tens of billions to prop up the industry
The DPA exists solely for this purpose and could be easily invoked by the end of the day Monday if progress isn't made behind the scenes. Biden already started the process in 2022.
>The argument that you pray 10x more reserves exist, and China finds no new ones, is retarded.
Even if they do have greater reserves in the end, it doesn't matter, demand will not increase linearly with increases in the global reserve pool. All the US and western allies really need to do in the short term is set up enough to meet demand for defense and other critical industries, a relatively small share of the current demand.

>>64383053
>And whose ore will be refined? China produces the significance majority of it. And Trump has started trade wars with most of the world, which makes the very low margin business worse.
Holy ESL
>Lol this is a hilarious American cope. You can't even use 4chan in china.
One needn't be a chinaman to fellate them, we see this with Russia and India.

>>64382836 (OP)
We just use our own instead of the chink shit. The US has deposits of everything that we choose not to use. Americans are fucking crazy on a level that cannot be explained. I'm not even meme-ing, give them a righteous cause and they will find a way to kill god. Chinks will survive for a bit because there are too many of them, but Americans will go full crazy and delete a continent given enough of a reason.

>>64383051
Lol
>Rare earths aren't rare
This is used by quippy redditors who don't understand the mining industry. In an absolute sense, yes. In a practical sense, extractable rare earths are very rare. Mining is all about concentration and extraction. Venezuela has more oil than Saudi Arabia, but the reason the latter is vastly richer is Saudi oil is extremely easy to refine and extract, making it very valuable. The shit that comes from Venezuela no one wants to refine. So Saudis shit in Instagram whores mouths and wipe their asses with Rembrandt, while Venezuelans chew on chicken bones. Quality of reserves is everything

>>64383056
They never really respond to the contention that China needs to continue to export in order to stay afloat either

>>64383051
This has convinced me more than anything they really are gearing up for Taiwan. I can't think of another reason to burn bridges with the rest of the developed world over something relatively trivial unless you're going to do something that'd have the same effect anyway shortly. This gives them more time to prepare for economic sanctions if Western nations are slow to react.

>>64383061
This but unironically. Considering how it's infinitely scalable, all we'd have to do is set up rows and rows of parallel SX cascades like we did during the Manhattan project. It's not some engineering or logistics feat.

>>64383068
I'm sure those rem will be tasty enough to eat when food imports stop.

>>64383069
Nah, it was directly in retaliation to the tariffs as that's really they only thing they have immediate influence over.

What I find funny about all of this is that Chinese government has already sanctioned most US defense contractors.

Guess what? Its stopped nothing lol

>>64383055
No, it's not. The bayan obo mine is. Not that it matters if your reserves are in one place or in several. Yes it produces about 15% of global rare earth ore. Bayan obo produces half.

>>64383079
Why then also include every other country in the world they're at odds with? All this is doing then is pushing those countries closer to the US and providing the conditions for new trade relationships excluding China to form.

>>64383059
>REE ores are not rare
Reddit tier understanding. Rare earths as a percent of the crust are no relatively rare. Extractable ores are rare. Sure you can find a massive amount of ore with 0.001% concentration but what's the point?

>>64383043
I highly doubt there's 1.5 billion people in china. It's probably a very closely guarded secret within the closed doors in the halls of the politburo that the population is below 1 billion. And the leak of that info would send the country into a complete spiral.

>>64382867
The alive ones will just eat the dead ones, In China, your comrades are a convenient snack for when the food runs out.

>>64383066
Read, nigger.
Australian and US REOs (avg 8% TREO) are higher quality than China's (avg 6% TREO), and available in quantities well excess of refining by many multiples. What's your next cope?
https://www.csiro.au/-/media/Science-Connect/Futures/Minerals-to-materials/CMRDD_Rare-Earths_FINAL.pdf
https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001801368/51640eb1-af07-4aa1-8d53-9760f2cfcce1.pdf