Thread 64418779

It seems Ukraine has started targeting power substations, specifically it seems from plants providing power to the central regions, including Moscow.

If they keep this up, what are the possible consequences beyond pulling an Uno Reverse card and freezing the Russians this winter like they've been trying to do to them over the last few years?
Would this have a big impact on their railway system and industrial base, or is everything more westwards, towards the Urals?

This one was set on fire earlier today in Berezniki, Perm Krai, and has left parts of the city without electricity and water.

>>64418779 (OP)
>would this have any effect on industry or the rail network
Yes.

This strike against the Veshkaima 500 kV substation in the Ulyanovsk region happened yesterday and local authorities are saying that they expect to replace it in a minimum of seven months.

>>64418830
How much of the Russian railway network runs on electric compared to diesel trains?
Or would the loss of power lead them to be unable to co-ordinate their trains properly due to the signalling system going down?

Well, they were warned. Russia does this shit - they'll get it in return.

>>64418779 (OP)
>If they keep this up, what are the possible consequences beyond pulling an Uno Reverse card a
massive, sustation transformers are very expensive and have very limited global supply and short inentory, most of which is outside Russian reach due to sanctions, Grid operators typically only have a handfull of reserve units, none at all in the case of much of the global south, orders take years to fill. Much of that supply has been going to Ukraine for the last couple of years and is escpecially tight. I guess the Russians would have to cannabilise subsatations from their already dying and depopulating stalin era sythetic communist single industry cities .China does make and export them but order time is measured in years and they have steady domestic demand and export customers that expect order fullfillment. They are also quite costly a few million a piece.

>>64418779 (OP)
>If they keep this up, what are the possible consequences beyond pulling an Uno Reverse card and freezing the Russians this winter
well, it's colder in russia, so...

>>64418862
Funniest thing would be them ordering spare parts in China and being told: sorry, first we have to build and deliver the ones Ukraine ordered.

>>64418779 (OP)
It will certainly hinder russian logistics, the human element, well, a russian is a russian, he will use candles if being told to, but you can keep hindering them.

>>64418848
Overwhelmingly diesel.
Russia has always considered that they will never run out of diesel. And building big power network all the way through siberian railways would be very, very costly.

It's not the rail power or diesel running out that they should be worried about. It's the fact that a lot of the modern russian railway equipment were bought from the west and that since the sanctions started, they have had no high quality spares coming in. Things like ball bearings for the wheels, quality electronics and such.

Sure, they can sidestep some of the sanctions by buying lesser quality spares from china, or paying extra to have them transported through Kazakstan or something... But they are certainly starting to have difficulties keeping up the rail car fleet.
So they just run cars until they wear out. And after that? Well, that's tomorrow's problem. But yeah, there is this slowly creeping infrastructural breakdown which keeps increasing, little by little. Car by car, part by part.

At one point, it's going to screech to a halt. All the estimates I have seen have indicated that Russia could probably continue operating normally until "Late 2025 or early 2026".
Which doesn't sound very good for Russia.

>>64418862
Could they bodge one together by using multiple smaller ones to spread the load, or does it not work like that?

>>64418878
It's not just Ukraine, China would take a year to deliver if Russia paid them now. I see them cannabailsing their dying stalin constructed cities infrastructure, which are mainly populated by aging pensioners due to their lower cost of living. The Russian coal industry is currently collapsing and it powers a great proportion of the Russian grid and industrial energy consumption and the thermal plants in Russia are in very poor condition. Their infrastructure has no equivalent to the systems offered by companies like GE for grid management and has multiple stress points already. Russia has less than a thousand substations in th high voltage gruid. If Ukraine starts a capagn against them as with refineries then Russia is in deep shit. The fact is Russia has passed the point of insanity already though both economically and militarily. Russian giverance is pic related. Meanwhile the Ukranian grid is more modern effecient and robust than it was when the war started.

>>64418904
Could the issues they are having with the fuel supplies also have an effect on their rail networks, or will they be the last to be affected because of how important they are for their logistics?

>>64418910
>Could they bodge one together by using multiple smaller ones to spread the load, or does it not work like that?
No, high volate substation tansofrmers are composed of hundre3ds of kilometers of wound wire all of which must be petrefectly insulated from contact with itself. That's why the are slow to make and cost millions. Even high functioning modern states don;t have spares for all their high voltage transormers, they might have them at the ratio of 1 to 50 or less or a drawdown financed via a deal with companies like GE or Siemens

>>64418933
>The fact is Russia has passed the point of insanity already though both economically and militarily. Russian giverance is pic related.

>>64418911
>still taking the orange skid mark's oral flatulence seriously
as irrelevant as pootin's, TZD is all that matters

>>64418910
no
a transformer built for 11Kv to 400v is simply not capable of handling, lets say 200Kv, it'll blow up

>>64418779 (OP)
>If they keep this up,
They will. The telling reason why they haven't bothered to this point is precisely because they presumed their efforts couldn't be sustained, and now they can. Playing your hand too early and too lightly is a terrible thing. I do believe the URK MoD knows that.

>>64418911
That seems a bit unlikely given he's trying to arrange a meeting with Putin in Budapest.

Why bother if you already have 100% buy-in with the Kremlin's goals?

>>64418950
Trump has an easy way of not seeing that frontline again which is just to gib weapons, but that might hurt monke's feelings

>>64418911
I want Russia and Ukraine to annihilate each other, and hopefully kill as many Europeans as possible.

>>64418937
>Could the issues they are having with the fuel supplies also have an effect on their rail networks
unlikley, those disels run on quite low grade fuel and are desidned with loose (and ineffecient) tolerances so they can run on it. until western companies helped them Russia struggled to refine good quality fuels, much of their oil is sulphur rich and requires western expertise to refine into gas suitable for 'petrol' modern vehicles or effecient diesel engines in modern vehicles and the Ukranians have been targeting those refineries, Their diesel trains in freight include a lot of soviet era stuff that is shit but will run on mud. About 80% of it is electric though. The Ukranains can absolutely cripple Russia if they keep hitting a few a day. If Russia was sane it would have packed up and left Ukraine over a year ago though as it is it is just insanity in goveance, infrastructure, economy (which is rapidly reverting to some sort of frankenstein centralised planning abomination) and militarily (they have lost the equivalent of their entire pre invasion ground forces and equipment at this point)

>>64418904
This lad is shitting you, like 80%+ of rail cargo in Russia is transported using electric power.

>>64418779 (OP)
>we will bomb you into the ice age, hohols!
>*bomber harris laughter slowly gets louder*

>>64418977
It's going to be bad isn't it?
They won't even have the fuel to run generators as a back-up.

Did they ever fix the heating pipes that blew up last winter?

>>64418950
did monke show trump the secret real army of bears on unicycles?

because the one that the rest of the world is incapable of winning anything at all

>>64418971
>the "facts don't care about your feelings" crowd when actually confronted with facts
i try not to shit on americans but it's so surreal seeing how idiotic trump/maga is man

>>64418977
>europe was going to freeze to death in winter back in 2023
anon, they were saying this just last week after Russia hit some power infrastructure near Kiyv

>>64418848
Signalling, maintenance and repair ifnrastructure, loading areas without power etc. Not gonna stop all activity, but everything gets harder to do.

>>64418911
>off-topic copium
Trump isn't gonna save Russia, no matter how much you seethe about it.

>>64418976
>I want Russia and Ukraine to annihilate each other, and hopefully kill as many Europeans as possible.
Don't worry now we know what you are you can wait your turn nicely. Rest assured you will be dealt with.

>>64418977
Kek I remember. Then it ended up being one of the warmest winter for Europe, wasn't it? Meanwhile, shit was bad in Russia. It's only going to get worse too.

>>64418976
>and hopefully kill as many Europeans as possible.
way to out yourself as a thirdie and a nigger

>>64418937
As far as I understand, the part about Diesel is relatively correct: There is no big lack of diesel, it's just most of it is prioritized for the war effort. Which has led to some places running low for farming needs. Their agricultural output has diminished considerably in the last 2-3 years. But this might also have something to do with periphery people being recruited into the military (with promises of much better pay) so there might not be men to do the farming, rather than lack of fuel.

It's the more refined stuff that's running out. And that is overwhelmingly civillian transportation. regular Cars. With refineries blowing up, Russia has lost like 40% of it's refinery capacity, and can no longer supply enough of the the more refined fuels to gas stations. (I recall seeing a number that they can only produce ~80% of domestic needs, but I have no source for that). This has led them to do some desperate things like 1) selling crude oil to india, which then refines it to high-octane petrol and 2) sells it back to russia with significant mark-up. Also, they prioritize the heartland Russia to have the petrol shipments (gotta keep Moscow and St. Petersburg people happy!) so that's one of the biggest reasonw shy the periphery is left without.

Pictured: a simplified schematic of how oil refinery tower works. You start from the bottom and work your way upwards. Each step gets you more refined product, but with constantly diminishing results. It just takes more crude oil to make petrol than diesel. So if Ukies hit the refineries, it's more likely that some part of the process can be salvaged and diesel production can continue. But petrol production becomes harder and harder.

>>64418983
>This lad is shitting you, like 80%+ of rail cargo in Russia is transported using electric power.
This. Even more for passenger. Especially concentrated in westerm Russia. The remaining old societ and other diesels will be in the mid east of Russia in the poorer regions with weak infrastructure

>>64419002
what makes you think you have the luxury of time on your side?

>>64418983
https://www.railengineer.co.uk/russian-routes-to-zero-carbon-rail/
This site is telling me 85% of passenger and 87% of freight is pulled by electric engines with 50+% of the whole network being electrified which sure is surprising to me, I absolutely assumed Russia stayed on diesel engines.

>>64418779 (OP)
Seems like of focus exactly like allies bombed Germany during WWII, jumping from one target to next without finishing first.
(well fact West cant mass produce Shaheeds like Iran and Russia doesn't help)

>>64419006
>There is no big lack of diesel
kinda-sorta
There is some issue with them swapping over to the winter blend, which is causing shortages not related to Ukrainian strikes (insofar as we know).

>>64418983
What makes the power tho?

>>64419018
Seems more like they ran out of undamaged gasoline refineries in range to bomb, so now they're bombing the next item on the list.

>muh Shasneeds
Meanwhile in reality, the West and Ukraine are producing better munitions than Shasneeds, and in greater numbers.

>>64418993
It's not like it's a secret. Just look at his pattern of behavoir since the late 80s. He's always been a thin-skinned, egotistical, bombastic midwit.

>>64419002
Bhajit dicks are smaller than Charlie Kirk's face

>>64419006
Just out of curiosity, where does Mazut fall on this scale, since Russia uses that as a fuel?
I know it's shit, but just how shit is it?

>>64419006
The fun thing about destroying desalters and AVTs is it completely stops refining operations.

>>64419013
>what makes you think you have the luxury of time on your side?
History and the fact Russia is already collapsing. India and Hinduism picked the anti European side and that has been noted. Considering India with its population over a billion has an economy smaller than Germany alone and that the EU can cause mass starvatuion in India with a nod, you can expect Indian hindus to reap the emnity they have sown in being 'dear friends' to a mudering Russia dicator in a very European effecient and ruthless way. Interesting to see how their low average IQ population will cope with the consequeces of what their leadership has done and their participation on a national and governmental level in Russias immigration as hybrid warfare planning.. Maybe JD Vance can supply international aid when the paid starts (don't hold your poo waiting though). Europe won't.

>>64419043
in the c20 to c70 bracket

>>64419025
According to Google, Natural Gas provides 45% of their power with Nuclear, Coal and Hydropower making up the rest.

>>64419043
ive been told by a guy who works at refiners all over the world that its more a case of russians calling fuel oil mazut (and other referring to russian fuel oil as mazut) than it actually being a specific flavor of fuel

>>64419043
Just above residue/bitumen. It's like only one step up from the worst of the worst. Can't even really use it as a lubricant. It's just gunk. But it burns and that was good enough for soviets.

>>64419051
That's pretty bad. Could things that run on something that unrefined run on unrefined crude oil, or is it just not flammable enough in it's natural state?

>>64419013

if you're implying that White countries are going to collapse before we have time to purge your curry ass, then you're dead wrong.
despite what people thin, White liberals and White conservatives have enough sense to wage a civil war.
and White countries are sensible enough to not wage a destructive nuclear war on each other, low intensity warfare is not the same thing.

White countries won't collapse into civil war or balkanize any time soon.

>>64418952
I don't get it.

>>64419065
it is sulphur rich dirty and hard top refine, the engines in black mariahs had to have cylinders with loose tolerances to run on it without siezing which also made them laughably ineffecient

>>64419013
The reality that you pajeets will literally choke yourselves on your own shit in that overpopulated cesspit you call a country.

>>64419075
They hacked the entirety of Russian messenger service that the government demands must be installed on all phones.

They got EVERYTHING.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1979894593836699753

>>64418911
>>64418950
What is exactly the point of saying that anyway? If the answer is 'give in or be destroyed' then you give in and all you get is a stay of execution for 10-15 years while Russia rebuilds with established pro-Russian Trump Trade Deals and they invade again and finish the job due to the $500bn and no defensive guarantees to protect them and crushing their economy (thus can't buy or rebuild military).

>>64419084
>They got EVERYTHING.

>>64419084
Ah. How does this help anything?

>>64419086
The threat would work a lot better if Russia hadn't spent years utterly failing to destroy Ukraine. Can't really threaten something *after* trying and failing to do it.

>>64419089
Oh, I don't know... maybe backdoors to all phones, probably access to private messages between important people, contact information that can be used to map out contact networks, create sociograms, maybe...

If lucky, they might get some juicy compromat out of that on individual level, even.
Who knows?

>>64419084
Oh my, now we get to see if the SBU can 'make everything bomb' as Russian officers, politicians and goons have active locations
Be a shame if your meeting with your ladyboy at the sodomite hotel got interrupted later

>>64419091
Then why say it? Russia is destroying Ukraine. This doesn't mean advancing, it just means that every single bit of land it 'claims' is burned out, rubble strewn, economically negative territory. It's totally fucking useless outside of Putin's map painting autism. I don't understand why Trump is so fucking schizo. I've said it before, Trump's view is essentially whatever the last person said ti him. He's like a child. Got a child you want to do stuff? Give him some candy. He'll do whatever you want if you give him candy, pat him on the head and go 'good boy'. This is Trump. But if you try and treat the child with a modicum of respect or equality, i.e 'No you shouldn't do that because it hurts the dog' when he pulls the dog's tail, it makes the kid screech and shout and stamp feet. This is Trump. He is like the child of a rich and powerful person who has had no actual intellectual or social training or experience and always expect it to go their way. Trump wants simple solutions (like a child) and doesn't like doing things that require effort (which is to give Ukraine enough weapons and support for them to kick Russia out).

If you believe experts, Russia is planning for this to go on for at least another 8 years.

>>64419071
There are more Europeans of native descent now in Europe than there were just before WW1. India gets no more international aid gobs from the EU after their fucking around but if they don;t fully open their domestic markets to European goods and learn their place then they can find out just how food insecure India really is for fun. The entire Indian economy is barely bigger than the UKs, Its smaller than Germany alone and a nothing compared to the EU or USA. Hindu nationalists fucked around in cozying up to a mudering Russian discator. Thweir participation in Putins immigratio0hn as hybrid warefare madness has been well noted, Now they will get to find out having fucked around. The completion of eliminating Ryussia as a threat to civilisation must forst be completed though and aside from inane US fucking around sucking the anus with a shower of kgb cunts that targeted them with nukes for 50 years that job is just about done. Brazil might be salvaged from the 'global south' mess yet but India is fucked as is south africa. They have effectively burnt their brides with the EU while privking around, seemingly wrapped up in Russia propaganda amout the collapse of capialism/ the decadent west/the EU/The dollar etc etc. They are in for an extremely bad time and they deserve it. I ndon;t think India will exist in 509 years, itb will be broken up and disbursed to conrol by China, the EU and the USA. That's the problem with bad choices and fucking around with asssisting in the muder of Europeans. The bill comes due.

>>64419107
>Then why say it? Russia is destroying Ukraine.
We already know your an idiot from the third worlf with no grasp of reality.

>>64418933
>Meanwhile the Ukranian grid is more modern effecient and robust than it was when the war started.

>>64419107
>Russia is planning for this to go on for at least another 8 years.
that's cute.
i'll give them 10 months tops. probably closer to 8.

>>64419043
It's a "Class 3" bunker fuel ("bunker" as in a ship's fuel bunker), iirc.
There's no technical reason to keep calling it "mazut." It's just a low-grade product that most people would dismiss as a waste byproduct.
Same as calling German Armor "Panzer." Just makes something sound more esoteric, exotic, interesting.

Practically speaking, Mazut's kind of like asphalt that's been warmed up and softened for pouring. Very stable, slow-burning. Hard to pump, very dirty. Very cheap.

>>64419114
Why didn't you read the rest of my post? This is destroying. Fuck off retard.

The irony of your post is you clearly didn't read my entire post, so I assume English is your second language and my big words confused you. That's understandable. I see you just copy and pasted something you've seen replied to you many times and tried to fit in, that's also OK. It's like using 'projection' and not understanding what it means. Again, that's fine. You'll learn English soon enough, keep going with Duolingo lessons.

>>64419107
>If you believe experts, Russia is planning for this to go on for at least another 8 years.
What ecxpertsa are those? The propagandists Russia thows rubles to in the hindustani times or do you mean pic related Russia is bankrupt and utterly fucked.Russia can 'claim' whatever it likes but it has no way to continue except to REDUCE military spending.

>>64419118
Tend to agree with that. Until midsummer next year, tops, before something radical happens inside Russia that forces them to at least sue for cease fire.

>>64419107
>If you believe experts, Russia is planning for this to go on for at least another 8 years.
Now THAT is bullshit. The Russians know damn well that they need to wrap this shit up before Donny Boy leaves office (whether he gets voted out or dies of old age is neither here nor there).

>>64419123
Germany's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that Putin wants to attack NATO in 5-8 years, so I assumed, at the extreme, Putin plans for the war to last 8 more years at most.

>>64419120
YOu assume wrong. You post was tiddled with laughable nonsense and garbage aboutr a US politician. This is a strategy and warfare and weapons board and strategy says by every measure RUSSIA IS FINISHED.
>>64419107
>If you believe experts, Russia is planning for this to go on for at least another 8 years.
yeah?

>>64419084
>They got EVERYTHING.
So? Everyone already knew everything.

>>64419120
Protip. You can rebuild cities.

>>64419130
>Putin wants to attack NATO in 5-8 years
>wants
Hitler wanted to win WW2.

>>64419126
>sue for cease fire
that would scream 'we lost!' to everyone pretty much

>>64419131
>laughable nonsense and garbage aboutr a US politician
but he's right. go and look up trump. we've seen him flipped from
>nato started this war, leave putin alone
to
>putin has started this stupid war
to
>russia will destroy ukraine
to
>i have stopped russia being destroyed
to
>i won't send any aid to ukraine
to
>i will send air to ukraine
to
>i won't send any long range weapons to ukraine
to
>i will send tomahawks (he didn't but he said)
to
>i won't use usa to protect nato
to
>i will honor obligations to protect nato

this isn't 'art of the deal' or 'keep them guessing' this is insanity and has spooked so many fucking allied states that they're freaking out.

>>64419118
Sort of depends on how deep Russia wants to dig into its Pidor reserves in the western half of the country and how far the double down hole goes. There is some serious problems in terms of employment, cash flow and some pretty fucking nuts amounts of inflation.
Kind of hard to put a time on
More a case of how flogged out that dead horse can take another beating each day after day, because it will only get worse as wars are horrendously expensive

>>64419130
>Germany's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that Putin wants to attack NATO in 5-8 years, so I assumed, at the extreme, Putin plans for the war to last 8 more years at most.
Stay in India and starve there you halfwit. If you think Russia can continue as it is while cutting its military budget you are derranged. Russia attacking NATO would be simply their nutjob 'escalate to descalate' shit not with ANY hope of sucess in doing so. In other words to create such a huge risk of nuclear exchange they get a ceasfire and left to seethe in crimea. That won't work out for them either.You don't even understand what you are reading. The arrival of the third world on mobiles runied this site and the internet. You really are all cretins. Again. Russia is bankrupt and deep in a military and economic quagmire. Its cash reserve is GONE. Its soviet era heavy weapons stockpile is GONE. Its economy is GONE. Its 2022 ground forces are GONE. Its profitable oil and gas exports pre 2022 are GONE. Its coal industry is GONE. Its not leading the global south in a triumpant victory over the decadent west is a turd being flushed down a beautifully made strategic toilet.

>>64418779 (OP)
>targeting power substations
some months ago, in a thread about Ukraine bombing a russian train station I said:
>this is stupid, they should bomb electrical transformers instead
and some genius here said that I was a "retard" who had no idea what he was talking about.
I hope you see this asshole.

>>64419033
>Seems more like they ran out of undamaged gasoline refineries in range to bomb
Get more range duh.


>producing better munitions than Shasneeds, and in greater numbers.
you are making things up

everybody point at him and laugh

>>64419144
So far Trump has had no effect on Russias detrioration other than to keep Putin from quittinng his losses. The EU and Ukraine are not ever going to let Russian annexation be recognised. Russia is one a one way trip to hell no matter what breathing space Trump tries to create with Putin. Russia is doomed. Its in an open state of emity with a massively more powerful block compsed of the EU+UK right next to it that has decided to sxwitch it off. That's not going to change as long as a single Russian remains in Crimea.

>>64419142
Well, if they simply can not continue the war due to logistical reasons they just have to sue for cease fire or risk the total collapse of their army.

That might be even worse than admitting that the war is not working out and that they kinda lost.

>>64419178
at the economist or putin?

>Europe will freeze for real this time!
>ziggers freeze instead
Pottery

>>64419187
>they simply can not continue the war due to logistical reasons
well that's textbook defeat and ceasfire would only be granted if they were willing to surrender. which they won't. so ukies would have to clean up all the trash that is still left or wait for it to go back to russia. either way, what i'm trying to say is russians simply saying 'timeout! pretty please!' won't work.

>>64418779 (OP)
Ukraine is doing this so you know it's the current meta

>>64419191
Monke obviously,

>>64419130
Then you misinterpreted. What he meant was that Russia wants a favourable ceasefire (i.e., getting territory they haven't even conquered yet, neutrality and limits on the Ukrainian military etc) right now and then spend a few years rebuilding their forces before they try to conquer the rest of Ukraine and move on into Eastern Europe (presumably at least as far as the old Iron Curtain).

He most certainly DID NOT mean that Russia could go from 8 more years of war with Ukraine to an attack on NATO. Their military is in tatters right now and needs total reorganisation and rearmament to have any chance of taking on NATO.

Why do you think the Russians haven't struck any of the European factories supplying the Ukrainian war effort beyond low-level plausibly deniable sabotage? Because they are absolutely terrified of NATO/the EU entering the war.

>>64419165
No one expects Russian collapse even when administered with mindbending incompetence and then everyone is shocked when Russia collapses. Same old story.

There are genuine retards on here who used to belive Ryussia could invade and defeat the EU states and UK. Yes really. With an economy one 12th the size and less than half the populatuion with grossly inferior weapons both in quality and quanity. Never forget the third world is as it is primarily becaus ethe people who live there in abunant natural resources are in the vast majority barely two generations out of mud huts and child sacrifice (looking at you hindu India and central Aftica). They worship moscow because it seems like their idealised fetish of criminal gang as a state and because moscow tells them nothing is their responsibility and anything wrong is all the evil Europeans and Americans who gave them electricity and trains.

>>64419089
>How does compromising every single phone in Russia help?
...anon.

>>64419187
It's not a matter of if russia is going to suffer an operational collapse, it's a matter of when. The if part is if it's just going to be a general refusal to attack, a full on mutiny with units simply leaving the front, or a full on revolt.

>>64419200
Oh, true.
If Russia simply tries to get a cease fire and call for timeout, it certainly won't work for them. If Russia can't continue fighting, Ukies will just roll over them (might take a while, but they will do it).

What I meant was "If Russian ability to continue waging war stops, their only hope is to 1) Sue for cease fire, 2) try to organize some kind of deal like "Ok, you get donbass, Luhansk and Zaporizza back, but we will keep Crimea" and hope that it would be enough of a deal to get accepted (and that they could then maybe get back into world economic markets).

It would absolutely be a "loss" as they would not gain any of their strategic objectives, but it might be just enough to prevent the collapse of their military and/or state.
And it just might keep the Silovikis in power, which might be enough for them to dump the blame on Putin.

Just go home, tell everyone "This was Putin's fault!" and throw him under the bus. Maybe pretend it had to be done to prevent a nuclear war or some other excuse. Russian state continues, a government changes but the real power players stay in power. Then play nice and hope that you get to return to the world stage.
If that keeps the Siloviki in power, it might be the most they can get out of this shit-show.

Because... what's the alternative, if you can't fight anymore?

>>64419254
I suspect Budanov has a very long list of names and after the war there's going to be Mossad level shenanigans.

>>64419254
>Russian state continues
i'm afraid we can't allow that to happen, sorry

>>64419267
Already, mayors and civil servants in the occupied territories who collaborate a little too hard have tended to have a very kinetic end.

>>64419218
>any chance of taking on NATO.
never happen
Russian economy pre invasion a tiny fraction of the EU or US one.
Russia military technology extremely weak Vs the EU or USA
Even pre invasion the EU alone dwarfed Russia in terms of air power both in quality and quanity equally European standing arnmies are LARGER than Russias entire military and are infintely better being fully professionalised and have vastly superior weapons and training.
Then there is the simple fact that including Ukraine and the UK there are roughly 500 million people Vs Russias collapsing demographic of 144 million, 1/3rd of which are pensioners and the rest of which are riddled with aids, ill health and a massive capial and brain drain.

Any Russian attemps to fuck around with nato are a desperate gamble to 'escalate to descalate' which won't pay off, bourne of the same demented delusions as their invasion of Ukraine.

I see lost, cold and forlorn looking third worlders wandering around in the cold autum winter here on the wet streets in my nice European country. Its interesting watching their delusions of being some sort of triumphant colonisers of a decadent collapsing Europe where they get to rape blondes and harvest gold from the pavement turn into the harsh reality of being a undersized, poorly educated, relatively physicaly weak social reject stuck on a cold wet street desperate to get work delivering food by peddling miles on a push bike for people who's houses are worth more than their entire village back home. These are the same people who think Russia can 'invade' Europe or fight Ukraine for 8 years. They are simpletons with the minds of children who believe whatever shit the kremlin spams to their mobiles which is also how they wound up pennyless and unwanted ona wet cold street clutchiong a student visa. India CEOs my ass..I look forward to the regular winter news reports of their corpses being found in alleys.

>>64419254
If they can't fight anymore there's no reason to take any kind of deal whatsoever, just starve out the trenches and roll them over, same with Crimea and whatever else there is. If they keep struggling - go to Moscow.

Winter is coming.

>>64419267
Oh absolutely.
Even if there is a cease fire and some kind of peace deal, it's in Ukraine's intrest to keep fucking the Russian internal politics as much as they can. Just to keep them from uniting and becoming a new threat in the future.

But they can play that game. If they secure their country from imminent existential threat, and Russia has their own internal problems to sort out, Ukies can play the long term spy games.

>>64419285
>If they can't fight anymore there's no reason to take any kind of deal whatsoever, just starve out the trenches and roll them over, same with Crimea and whatever else there is. If they keep struggling - go to Moscow.
No. Just let their collapsing econmy, militarty and infrastructure take effect. Vastly more destructive, and have it go on for as long as possible undil every singkle one of them curses Putins name and their own stupidity

They have realized that Trump is worthless and are preparing for a possible pyrrhic loss. Next year will become a show of which country folds first from power infrastructure becoming unusable.

>>64418848
The network outside of military Barrett works anymore. The state railway company just got an emergency loan because shipments are down so much.

>>64419315
Ukraines power grid is vastly more resilent and modern than it was just before Russia invaded. That's right. Its BETTER than it was pre invasion. Keep believing your kremlin bullshit for retarded third worlders. The Ukranians fully deserve their victory. They are Europeans.

>>64419315
Considering the stated goal of russia is the destruction of Ukraine, not just as a sovreign nation but as a culture and people, I doubt the Ukranians are going to surrender.

>>64419107
>Russia is destroying Ukraine.
And Ukraine is destroying Russia, and doing it faster than the other way around.

>If you believe experts, Russia is planning for this to go on for at least another 8 years.
[citation needed]

I would like to add to this conversation by saying that Moldova is completely rebuilding their grid RIGHT NOW to cuck Transnistria.

>>64419330
I sometimes wonder who is more deluded about the propects of the EU or Ukraine backing down to a vastly weaker power headed by a war criminal, the KGB or MAGA

>>64419315
That would be a damn stupid plan, as Ukraine has constant supply of new infrastructure material flowing in from the rest of the Europe.
They can most likely keep repairing their systems a lot longer than Russia can.

I just can't see any way out of this for Russia that would be easier, cheaper and less painless than just CALL IT QUITS AND GO HOME.
Yes, their government might fall, but their state would survive. Their army, despite badly mangled and only a rump of it's former self, would at least still exist and could be maybe hopefully restructured.
Their infrastructure would stop blowing up and if they would just throw Putin under the bus, blame everything on him, and promise to play nicely in the future ...then MAYBE the rest of the world might start to think doing business with them again.

Maybe.
That's the LEAST painful way out of this.

>>64419173
>you are making things up
Nice projection, dalit.

>>64419342
>That would be a damn stupid plan, as Ukraine has constant supply of new infrastructure material flowing in from the rest of the Europe.
>They can most likely keep repairing their systems a lot longer than Russia can.
>>64419329
>Ukraines power grid is vastly more resilent and modern than it was just before Russia invaded. That's right. Its BETTER than it was pre invasion.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraines-energy-sector-resilience-after-three-years-full-scale-war
"Despite concerns in Ukraine and the West, and contrary to Russia’s expectations, Ukraine’s energy sector is still standing strong after three years of war and continuous military strikes. Ukraine has responded to damage and destruction with rapid repairs, upgrades, and the construction of new facilities. From the very first day Russia launched its full-scale invasion, Ukraine has accelerated its integration into the European energy market and implemented key reforms. Rather than being Ukraine’s Achilles’ heel, the energy sector has, after three years of war, proven to be a vital line of its defense. "

This retard could have the easiest and greatest win for the US since ww2 but for some reason he doesn't want it.

>>64419342
Except that ends with Putin and friends at best losing power and going into comfortable exile (until their car mysteriously explodes), falling out a window after shooting themselves in the back of the head twice, or (if rumors about Monke's fears are to be believed) getting dragged through the streets and tortured to death by an angry mob. The government is the state. Russia as we know it ceases to exist without the current power structure. I don't know what would fill the vacuum but I do know the chaos would make the 90s look like a minor economic slump and there's enough russians terrified at that thought to keep their heads down and mouths shut.

>>64419267
No need to suspect, they've been very open about it for a long time.

>>64419359
Among the top foreign policy blunders in US history

>>64419107
>Russia is planning for this to go on for at least another 8 years.
Which would be pretty much a win for NATO, even if sucked for Ukraine the whole time.
Tying Russia into Ukraine for 8 more years, while NATO keeps cutting off the russian pieces from the global board one by one and improving the military industry and technology. And in the end NATO gets a freeroam on collapsing russia in guise of "securing" russian nuclear assets before "non-state actors" can get them.

>>64419359
I bet it was Vance and Hegset feeding this retardation to him after he asked opinions about Putins phonecall.

>>64419359
rumors say he's a kgb asset

>>64419362
No it ends up with mass protests by miners and pensioners and FSB being thrown off rooftops by bitter veterans and the young chidren of oligarchs mudered wholesale as they prance around in larpy cadet uniforms . History repeats and that's especially true of Russia. The Romanovs were considered absolutely secure in their grip on power until they were not. Russia is breaking up NOW as we atch, the caucasus first and then siberia and the ethnic enclaves in the east along with siberia which has been milked dry and utterly neglected and pillaged by moscow for a generation. Putin has done more to completely end Russia as it exists today than based Reagan could ever have hioped for in his wildest dreams. It was always an IMperialist construct since Catherine the Great (a prussian...) and empires either expand or die. Russia is over, it's in the terminal stage of a decline that began in the 1860s because its built on a vicious authoritarian state and belligerance utterly incompatible with civilisation or peace, yet not much good at war either.

>>64419377
He's just a wishy-washy senile who woke up grumpy that day. Watch him Invite Stub golfing again in two weeks and suddenly he is the biggest fan of Ukraine.

>>64419376
Fox Newsroom = Kremlin asset. As tuicker how good bread smells in moscow, is it as sweet as putins anus?

>>64419375
I've said this before and I'll say it again, just buy the warheads for more than terrorists can afford to pay. It might cost trillions to get them all but it's still more cost effective than one going off in a major city.
>but what about disposal
Dump them all in the middle of the Pacific. Water is an excellent radiation shield and they can sit down there and quietly turn to lead.

>>64419107
>>If you believe experts, Russia is planning for this to go on for at least another 8 years.
They are not very good at planning then.

Note: Pic related only covers what is visible.
Preferential loans that the government forced banks to issue to the defense industry companies/mortgage holder/etc to prop those up are not covered.
Note 2: Budget revenues are not growing. They're contracting.

Ooops

>>64419384
i don;t think Trump himself is even if they have eipstein kompromat onn him or his bride but I've a high degree of certainly that several of the people standing close to him are.

>>64419390
>Dump them all in the middle of the Pacific.
NO. NUKE THE MOON.

>>64419283
>I see lost, cold and forlorn looking third worlders wandering around in the cold autum winter here on the wet streets in my nice European country. Its interesting watching their delusions of being some sort of triumphant colonisers of a decadent collapsing Europe where they get to rape blondes and harvest gold from the pavement turn into the harsh reality of being a undersized, poorly educated, relatively physicaly weak social reject stuck on a cold wet street desperate to get work delivering food by peddling miles on a push bike for people who's houses are worth more than their entire village back home. These are the same people who think Russia can 'invade' Europe or fight Ukraine for 8 years. They are simpletons with the minds of children who believe whatever shit the kremlin spams to their mobiles which is also how they wound up pennyless and unwanted ona wet cold street clutchiong a student visa. India CEOs my ass..I look forward to the regular winter news reports of their corpses being found in alleys.
goddam son, you fucking hit them harder than the Bengal Famine

>>64419392
And the loans the government has taken during war have huge interest rates they can't afford to pay. And the rate of smaller oligarchs having armed IRS agents come in to arrest them with corruption charges and taking their assets is increasing.

>>64419390
Well, duh. But the point is to secure the northern sea route, which is easiest done by taking over more or less direct.y, which makes it convenient that quite large part of russian nuclear assets are in the northern parts of russia.
Southern russian nuclear assets can be just be bought off from warlords, that is true enough.

>>64419376
>I bet it was Vance and Hegset
Neither has ever voiced a thought that they did not hear Trump say first.
Trump is retarded, there is no 5d chess, WYSIWYG.

Kek, seeing you westoids go from "Moscow in 3 months" to "Russia will collapse from Ukraine terror bombing" is real funny.
Next year by this time we will have ground their army down and we will probably be on the Dnipro preparing for the big Kiev siege. The butthurt belters wails of horror will be hilarious just as your westerners thoughts and prayers.

>>64419396
REVENGE FOR BOSTON! REMEMBER 2007!

>>64419410
Too obvious, you need to lay it less thick

>>64419410
>laying it this thick
cmon mate put in some effort

>>64418911
Does he just switch stances every fucking day now?

>>64419397
It's the truth anon, no harm in them reading it. They live in acute poverty and die like flies during winter, here the teenagers beat them up (they are bigger than them) and at this time of year throw fireworks as them. I have no sympathy because I see their mindset towards my nation on dispay on this site daily. They are an expendible component in Russias immigration as hybrid warfare strategy and it does not end well when they sell everything they have to buy a student visa. It ends in poverty, cold, death by exposure and miserable pooly paid menial work that won't even cover their own food let alone rent and they are primarily exploited by their own expatriates. They have to 'rent' push bikes and mobiles on a daily rate and hope someone will order food and they waddle around in old worn coats to big for them desperately trying to pedal pushbikes to big for them in driving rain. Clowns. All telling their relativees they work in tech and are datinng a playboy model. Droves of them are found dead every winter or little rats nests of them dead of carbon monoxide poisioning packed into one room illegally sublet to 20 of them. The great Indian CEOs.

Should have done it like Japan (SOVL) by having all your transformers on shitload of pilons. Can't knock out the network if the network is decentralized.

I want a warlord era for russia.

>>64418911
Can't he just go back to prompt literal shit tier AI video like the good thirdie he is?

>>64419359
some of his closest cultists are definitely ziggers, but the real problem is that orange julius 100% believes he'll win some sort of prize if he can just bully zelenskyy into taking a deal. he doesn't give a shit about anybody in ukraine or russia, all he wants is to get a shiny medal and cement his legacy

>>64419463
You'll nearly defnitely get one, most of the oligachs still operate PMCs

>>64419471
None of that will stop a vastly larger power that Russia decided to make an enemy that is right next to most of its more propserous bits choking Russia to death and keeping both arms and money flowing into Ukraine.

>>64418779 (OP)
For me the big question is whether the substation campaign is an expansion of Ukraines existing strategic bombing effort against the oil infrastructure or a switch of targets in response to the russians concentrating air defences around the oil stuff
if its the former then the Russians could be in serious trouble

>>64419471
Tho I'd like to see his threats to Europe if they won't support his botched peace deal.

>>64419483
The Russiams are facing armed insurgerts popping up in the caucuses as well. Russia is covered in cracks it is just a mttere of when, not if, it shatters.

Odd that there has been no Russian chimpout bombing yet.

>>64419485
>Tho I'd like to see his threats to Europe if they won't support his botched peace deal.
He has three years. The EU and Ukraine has forever. Russia is fucked and right now it is hamorraging daily.

>>64419490
>Odd that there has been no Russian chimpout bombing yet.
They don't have the capability anymore. Ukraine blew up a bag of the factories making drone and missile components

Opinions on Netherlands openly saying that they have stopped sharing all intelligence with USA due to fears that someone there is leaking information to Russia?

>>64419490
They are pretty much living from hand to mouth when it comes to chimpouts, and they already had couple of big ones recently, so they probably have not stocked up enough yet to penetrate the air defence.
I'd estimate next saturday the next chimpout day

>>64419496
I don't blame them, our current administration is definitely compromised

>>64419496
>Opinions on Netherlands openly saying that they have stopped sharing all intelligence with USA due to fears that someone there is leaking information to Russia?
They are correct. It may be unfair on Trump himself or even the broader US population but he has russian assets standing next to him and that's something the US public have the sole right to deal with..They even shut down the FBI in case it fingered them. If it comes to conflict with China the US is in a very dangerously vcompromised condition. IN the end of the day the EU and UK can go it alone and still crush Russia and support Ukraine. Only a tiny percent of Russian trade was ever with the US and the Europeans can just switch from spening on US weapons to spending on their own production which has ramped up massively as has the Ukranians precisely becaus ethe US president has compromised Russian assets standing next to him. Its an open secret who they are as well..

>>64419149
Damn, Putin is looking rough. Has his cancer gotten any better? Is it just war stress? Either way he at least looks his age instead of like a weird bloated homunculus.

>>64419165
This is Russia we're talking about, you need to understand they are retards.
>Bomb everything but power
>Winter approaches
>Because power has not been targeted, there is zero defenses in place around it
>Power is now targeted at the worst possible time
>O blyad we must of defendings power
>After 40% of power infrastructure is destroyed, there is finally defenses in place
>....Just in time for a new target to be selected
>The cycle of total infrastructure death continues

>>64419483
I'd say it is a bit of both. Turning russian size against it is pretty solid strategy when it is simply impossible for russia to cover all of its important assets with anti-air.
Which is kinda funny when putins summer villa has supposedly 12 anti-air systems dedicated to it, in comparison to just 68 that are around moscow.

>>64418937
the map is misleading but I wouldn't expect anything better from an oshit propaganda outlet
the correct title should be "regions where we snapped a single photo of one gas station not selling diesel or gasoline any time from august to october"
the real indicator would be widespread fuel rationing by the military and the industry

>>64419545
>the real indicator would be widespread fuel rationing by the military and the industry
Both things that russia would try to keep quiet as long as possible. If we actually had heard of those, it would basically mean that russia is already in full collapse mode.

>>64419493
I wish that was the case Eurobro, but alas, his hybrid warfare, if nothing else, does work. I'm frightened to see in my own family and coworkers many zigger talking points being spouted. I see the exact same/pol/brainrot being spouted by normalfags, all from Xitter algos. I see votes going towards what will be the MAGA equivalent.
His hybrid warfare does work. The current government structure are doing their job, but I wouldn't be so sure about the next governments that will act like the US' one. Romania was close to switch, Germany has to compromise too much and will switch one day, France will definitely switch with MAGA-like ziggers cum slurpers, Belgium next, Hungary and Slovakia are full blown traitors. Fucking HECK, the next round of Trump Putin meeting is in fucking Budapest. In fucking EU while Putin has a mandate on his ass. From a country that's supposed to enforce the Rome treaty.
I know EU enough to know it can't supercede those particular national prerogatives, it's not a Federation and doesn't have the structure nor the means to act against that, but for fucks sake I still wish EU would say that faggot won't land anywhere and hise plane will be shot down upon entering EU space.
Alas, nothing will happen, and that infamous meeting will take place.

>>64419471
>all he wants is to get a shiny medal and cement his legacy
The fucking insane part about this, is he could so easily cement his legacy by just helping Ukraine and bringing NATO together. Instead of having tantrums and flipflopping on his position literally daily.

>>64419596
he lacks the balls to do it and the many wormtongues in his administration make the problem even worse.

>>64419606
Back during the Cold War someone in the US administration donning a red necktie alongside a hammer+sickle pin would've been preposterous, but I guess in 2025 coming across as pandering to one's geopolitical opponents is based.

>>64419638
Perceived enemy side got angry therefore it good.

>>64419130
Anon, Russia after this is going to be a regional power at best. There's a 0% chance he engages in open warfare with NATO, especially 8 years from now when the situation is even worse economically and demographically.

>>64419018
Russia doesn't have nearly enough AD assets to defend every target in the country, but they'd have enough to defend every remaining refinery IF they didn't have to defend anything else. So if the Ukrainians were to hyper-fixate on any one category of target, they'd run into diminishing returns as Russia concentrated its air defense systems more and more around a shrinking number of facilities.
But Russia is a big place and Ukraine has a limited capacity for long-range strikes, so if the Ukrainians were to completely disperse their efforts across every category of target, Russia would be able to absorb the blow without suffering too much of a disruption. Sure, their losses would add up over time, but there wouldn't be a sudden shock to the system (a leaking tire is a problem, but it's easier than dealing with a blown tire).
The reason why Ukrainian strikes on specific types of targets come in waves is because when they hit a bunch of refineries in a row, Russia will understandably move air defense assets to protect their other refineries but they can only do that by robbing Peter to pay Paul so which means somewhere in Russia, there's an ammo dump or an airfield or a transformer or chemical plant that's left undefended. So Ukraine switches to targeting ammo dumps, and Russia will move in AD assets from elsewhere. And when the damaged refineries finally get repaired, there won't be an AD system there to defend them, because they've been moved to guard ammo dumps.
Russia's being forced to play a game of whac-a-mole as their AD branch gets attritted fighting in Ukraine. And it's not a game they can win.

>>64419359
he wants that bobo peace prize by any means necessary. i doubt he really cares what the terms are as long as he can say he made it happen.

>Siberia is starting to openly discuss secession
wew lad didn't have that one on my bingo card.

>>64419685
sauce?

>>64419267
>>64419368
No expiry date on war crimes, next year, 50 years, 100 years- all still valid until the end of days
Personally I'm up for the TZD of 3 generations being responsible being held to account

>>64419519
Yeah he's a bit haggard when you see the real Monke, the cloned Monkes are much more lively, have facial expressions, can string cohesive thoughts together and don't have the coof coff that the real Monke has

>>64418779 (OP)
>strategic bombing
Awww maaan. Anytime I hear that term, I want to see 4 engined bombers flying in box formation. Please, ukies. At least send your drones in "1000 bomber raids".

>>64419685
You have not been paying attention then. Siberia has had an secession undercurrent for long time now, all the way back to soviet times.
Monke just has had that suppressed, but when the oppression machine is dying in ukraine and focusing to keep moscow from going into flames, the voices will inevitably get louder again.
Another part that you should keep eye on is Kaliningrad, that one is going to declare independence and plead NATO/EU assistance as soon as Russia is forced to move more of their military assets from there.

>>64419696
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/10/19/frontline-report-russias-empire-starts-to-crack-as-separatist-fires-quietly-begin-flickering-from-siberia-to-the-caucasus/

Disclaimer- this is just the first Google result, I did not bother to fact check it so do your own homework if you don't think it's a valid source.

>>64419579
Yeah, nah. If at all, Romania was the high water mark. Germany isn't gonna switch anytime soon, and France? LMAO; LePen can't even run in the 2027 elections because she's a convicted criminal now. Hell, the next big one is HUNGARY; and it ain't looking too hot for Orban.

>>64419685
>>64419712
>>64419713
CIA/HATO color revolutions? In Puccia itself?
Will the bum touching Anglo-Saxons ever stop their scheming?

>>64419698
>expiry date
Dude, Budanov isn't doing this the legalistic way. Him and his boys are straight car-bombing the fuckers on their daily commute.

>>64419756
Personally I'm a fan of the Scooter Bomb, that'll get a nigga every time

>>64419713
Shit Don't Occur and all that but interesting article anon

>>64419713
Gonna be interesting times ahead when those war-trained and generally disillusioned people return from ukraine.

>>64418952
>Cидopoвa
Sidorovich confirmed.

>>64419015
>I absolutely assumed Russia stayed on diesel engines.
Staying on Diesel would have been a good idea in Russia for the same reason it's a good idea in the Untied States, but since it's a good idea it's safe to assume they didn't do it.

>>64419798
>Return
Good thing 5d chess giga brain tsar Monke makes sure 99% of them die! Surely this will prevent insurrection?

>>64418809
>parts of the city without electricity and water
But what happened after the bombing?

>>64419187
Collapse is better because then you can blame internal enemies instead of having to admit you failed.