>>41347308 (OP)
I'm gonna try to argue truthfully with you.
>any medical treatment for trannies is banned
hard to do, since technically HRT is used for biological women for menopause, hirsutism (excessive beardgrowth) and numerous other ailments that require bioidentical female hormones. Even babypills and stuff that makes you stop your period. You COULD ban it specifically for biological males, but then it would once again open a can of worms and you would have to add specific exemptions for intersex people or maybe even women that were born without a uterus, depending on how much you uppend the current definitions of biological male and female.
Lets also assume pharmacies and everything in regards to HRT access needs DNA access aswell as visual inspection.
The fact that the menopause market is so huge would make it extremely easy to get estrogen by the kilo from china. You only have to look towards peptides to see that shit like that will never be stopped. There are even peptides that are GnRH analogues which are basically puberty blockers ie they shutdown the HPG Axis, or even better, bicalutamide which you technically could transition on without exogonous estradiol since testosterone converts to e2 on its own in excess, so taking bica would be like -> blocking androgen receptors -> body producing more t -> T can't bind anywhere because of bica -> turns T to E2
And at the very bottom of things, you could just synthesize E2 yourself quite frankly.