Thread 508394204

*If* the Iranian Security Council does decide to close the strait how well would a US-led coalition perform in securing the shipping route and preventing attacks?

We've already seen in Yemen that this isn't as easy as it looks and Iran has had decades of prep-time, a lot of additional capabilities in things like mines and a shadow fleet operating across the region and into the Indian Ocean that could cause trouble. Keep in mind we're also talking about international shipping so the prerequisite for victory is really about lowering insurance premiums, ensuring the captains don't puss out and ultimately minimising disruption to global markets.

>>508394204 (OP)
Go ahead Iran, do it, see what happens.

Imagine closing the only trade route you have just because your enemies (aka the world) is using it as well.

usn would likely stay well away. not worth the risk to precious assets.

mines, drones (suicide boat, air, and all the others), cruise missile batteries, asbms, torpedoes rolled off boats, and any other manner of ways to fuck with shipping.

air could attempt to hit radar sites and batteries, but that's not going to diminish the threat by much.

it'd be far worse than the black and red seas.

>>508394204 (OP)
>lol just block the hormuz!
You know that would drag both America and most gulf states into the war right? Iran's already getting raped by Israel's airforce, imagine what it would like if Saudi F-15s, Emirati Rafales, and Kuwaiti F-18s joined in against Iran.

>>508394204 (OP)
Wouldn't this just serve to piss off the other regional powers? Seems like this would just make more enemies rather than pressure the west in anyway

>>508394205
What does this post bring to the discussion?

>>508394207
oh, and the usn mine clearing is just as shit now as it was back when this shit happened last time and several of our ships hit mines.

>>508394210
Highlights the power disparity between Iran and the US and how it is plausible that gap will prevent Iran from performing (or at the least maintaining) that action

>>508394207
>usn would likely stay well away. not worth the risk to precious assets

Why not use it to do operation praying mantis 2

>>508394213
we could wreck their few surface ships, but that's not going to do much for everything i listed.

>>508394207
>usn would likely stay well away. not worth the risk to precious assets.
I'm sure there really isn't much of a threat after seeing Iranian military performance for the past week.

>>508394207
I'm wondering what has been learnt from the Ukraine War to defend against things like drone boats. EW would be the obvious priority and I think the US would be very effective at countering what Iran sends out by way of drones or targeting via missiles - I used to hang out with a retired EW specialist and his view even in the 00s was that the Iranian had tried to target ships in the past but failed every time.

Obviously though the advantage in this situation is always the attacker who just needs to do enough damage to impact a fleet-in-being to push it back and the shipping out.

>>508394208
>>508394209
We're discussing a scenario and the likely weapons and tactics.

>>508394204 (OP)
That's the neat part--they almost *don't*.

In fact, an appropriate response would be to immediately demolish the pumping stations on Kharg Island, reducing Iranian oil exports to mostly just what they can smuggle in trucks through Pakistan. The Saudis have a pipeline to the Red Sea; it can't carry even half of their normal exports, much less those of the GCC, but it *can* keep the global economy afloat for the short-term. Meanwhile, Iran is almost completely dependent upon its oil revenue to prevent decades of tyrannical mismanagement and theft from wrecking its economy overnight.

>>508394216
it's unwise to underestimate groups, and there's been hardly any fighting; iran has just been lobbing ballistic missiles with some success and some failures.

this is how you end up like the saudis or russians who skimmed into the same deal.

>>508394211
Fug, I can't imagine minesweeping capability has gotten any better considering the destroyers fiasco. Maybe China will help out.

>>508394219
That would almost certainly put the global economy into a tailspin. The current cut in Iranian and Israeli exports is already throwing things into chaos in Egypt and Europe.

It would hurt china a lot, so please do it

You just know they're going to REEEE and cry their eyeballs out when this thing gets obliterated.
Might even get a formal UN/ICC petition about being bullied.

>>508394218
low profile suicide boats are still hard to detect by surface search and having helos up with flir and eyes out the side is still the best way to go about it.

identifying forward observers is key to stopping missiles fired on you without radar (so little warning if eaw shits itself), which can be done by a few ways (they're often in boats). observation drones can do this too obviously, but they're easy to detect.

sea mines.... hope someone has good eyesight on watch or they aren't the moored or bottom mines.

aerial drones aren't that big a threat out to sea and are easy to detect via air search and shot down many ways.

torpedoes.... lol.

>>508394204 (OP)
I really want to see their meme carriers in action.

>>508394224
I can see it being a navigation hazard if it gets anchored in the shallows. You can sink it but then you end up with tons of wreckage you need to move.

>Iranaway declare Operation Satan's Taint Smited by Muhammad's Fist
>entire Iranian navy spontaneously combusts
>5 gorillion boghammars and their child crews sunk
>Khameni sits on the bottle on live TV.
>straits open for business as usual

>>508394204 (OP)
>*If* the Iranian Security Council does decide to close the strait how well would a US-led coalition perform in securing the shipping route and preventing attacks?
It’s quite unlikely Iran would try to Blockade Hormuz because they would drag all of Europe and the Gulf states into war

>>508394230
And China.

>>508394226
>>508394228

Jane's Fleet Command bros, we're so back

Shippingbros... you watching this?

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:57.4/centery:26.8/zoom:7

>>508394230
>>508394231
Read the thread. This is a scenario.

Iran has no capabilities to maintain the Houthis now, all the Houthis can do is be annoying until they get bombed to oblivion after Iran has been rendered fully toothless.

All it would invite is Praying Mantis 2.0

>>508394204 (OP)
Since 2012 I've been told it would be the event that would trigger the end.

>>508394232
bullshit, Holden Bloodfeast has at least two more terms in him

>>508394232
>>508394228
>>508394226
>>508394238
He is just getting started.

>>508394205
How many shekels per post?

>>508394234
A realistic scenario would be using drones to damage American shipping while using proxy forces to force the American fleet to disperse

>>508394240
One hundred thousand.

>>508394204 (OP)
>*If* the Iranian Security Council does decide to close the strait
My mate Webbo would just munt Khomeini with a claw hammer

>>508394231
>the US-Euro-China Carrier taskforce vs Iran

>>508394204 (OP)
So another tanker war? That didn't go too well for them last time and the power gap between us and them was way smaller and they hadn't spent decades pissing in everyone's cheerios to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if the Saudis and Egyptians overlook the Jewish involvement just to be rid of the Houthis and get more boats flowing through the Red Sea and by extention more money in their pockets

>>508394204 (OP)
You know 90% of that oil goes to Asia, right? They'd only be pissing off China and cutting off their only source of forex.

>>508394239
He's literally me!

>>508394239
Should be a canonised Saint, but of what?

>>508394247
That's not how oil markets work. If there's a shortage then it becomes a bidding war with ships literlly changing course and going to wherever they think they can get the best price even if it means queuing at the terminal.

>Iran closes the Strait
>Saudi-Arabia, Gulf states and Iraq form a coalition against Iran
just lol

>>508394241
what proxy forces?

>>508394205
>yeah, then the antisemits can't blame isreal for escalations

>>508394210
>discussion
Wtf Hans Blick? You had your chance. Time for "discussion" (stalling while Iran developed the bomb UNDER YOUR NOSE WITH YOUR TACIT APPROVAL is over

>>508394250
>That's not how oil markets work.
That's exactly how oil markets work though, at least until the current round of delivery contracts expire.

>>508394251
>ARABS PLZ SAVE ME
pathetic

>>508394239
I've never voted R but I can respect his no-nonsense positions, even if I disagree with some of them

>>508394205
They'd piss off china something fierce if they did

>>508394256
>le i'm not dying for israel xd
you never were going to in the first place you fucking retard

Now that Iran’s air defenses have been heavily degraded by Israel, couldn’t we just have the gulf countries bomb Iran’s power plants and stuff until they capitulate? The gulf states are mostly retarded and incompetent, but they should still be able to bomb stationary and defenseless targets, and having them do it reduces the amount of international whining at us. Iran might fire back with missiles, but if they have to fire million dollar missiles and we use $21-36k JDAMs, it’s not a winning proposition for them.

>>508394259
So true, the arabs are going to save us. Go Saudi arabia, go Iraq!

>>508394261
you are spiritually brown

>>508394260
>arabs will save us
Please keep these copes coming. This is hilarious

>>508394256
Russia, China and the Almighty Ummah right now, lol.

>>508394262
Arabs will save us braddarrr
>>508394264
The left can't meme

>>508394260
They want to try and avoid Iran shooting at their refinery equipment, while the US doesn't have anything important they can hit. The fact that none of them are even lifting a finger in protest, much less to stop Israel and the US, is as much support as you can expect from them and really goes to show how badly Iran has pissed off the entire region.

>>508394263
Do you even read? I’m saying that the US should have the Arabs bomb Iran.

>>508394218
>EW
Nah, that shit is a bandaid at best against active development

>>508394265
>t-the left!

>>508394267
Exactly. The mighty arab coalition will save us, go Saudi arabia

>>508394220
>and there's been hardly any fighting; iran has just been lobbing ballistic missiles
That's because that's all they can do you retard. They aren't holding back. That's literally the best they got. They got completely btfo so hard that israel was freely flying their F35's over tehran, their fucking capital.

>>508394265
The left supports Iran.

>>508394259
Yeah because he would have shot his commisar and not been a cuck.

>>508394256
>carries an uzi
The irony

>>508394272
Everyone supports Iran actually, except for jeets Nigerians and evangelicucks

>>508394274
That's a Mac 10. Kek /k/ can't into weapons

>>508394274
>uzi
That is incorrect.

>>508394275
>Dislike for Israel means they like Iran
Retard.

>>508394218
>I'm wondering what has been learnt from the Ukraine War to defend against things like drone boats.
Using computer targeted cannons rather than relying on manually aimed HMGs like the Russians is a good start. APKWS launchers would probably work really well too.

>>508394266
If the strait is closed, they won’t be able to sell much oil anyways, so they can fix damaged refineries while waiting for the war to end. I read that they fixed damage to their refineries in the past drone strike in a few weeks.

>>508394204 (OP)
>a US-led coalition
0 chance of that happening. Nafo has no interest. The Brits wont get burnt a second time. You'll have to sort yourselves out this time.

It's Trump, Netanyahu, Abdullah II and
Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud against Putin, Khamenei, Lula da Silva, Modi and Xi Jinping.

>>508394274
Saving your post to laugh at later btw

>>508394281
>Putin, Khamenei, Lula da Silva, Modi and Xi Jinping.
Sounds like a third world street shitter supergroup.
Best of luck getting the Changs and Jeets to cooperate, lmao.

>>508394280
Conversely, they add nothing to the bombing that Israel isn't already capable of, much less the US, so outside of the propaganda value of them joining in, which doesn't hold that much value given the Sunni Shiite split, there's no reason for them to go further and risk anything.

>>508394275
>not liking israel == liking iran
based retard

>>508394232
>John Fetterman
kek

Why wouldn't they have already made that determination when Mr. T was huffing and puffing? What's there to deliberate? They aren't going to do it.

>>508394219
>In fact, an appropriate response would be to immediately demolish the pumping stations on Kharg Island, reducing Iranian oil exports to mostly just what they can smuggle in trucks through Pakistan.
what are the odds that if this happens, iran attacks saudi arabia's oil supply in retaliation?
That would just fuck iran geopolitically even more but, what would saudi do about it? Air defense I guess, but iran would be able to do some damage at least

That would immediately bring saudi fully into the war, which would not be worth it to iran in my view.

>>508394288
it's amazing how cucked the Gulf countries are when it comes to a bellicose neighbor who stockpiles offensive missiles and drones.

>>508394285
I mean that's basically why I like iran, I'm sick of kikes and I enjoy watching them get blown up by HYPERSONICS

>>508394288
>what would saudi do about it?
They'd basically be attacking America's gas station, so they wouldn't have to do much, the U.S. would likely go full Desert Storm.

>>508394217
Iran didnt have to launch missiles in solidarity, y'know

>>508394256
>>ARABS PLZ SAVE ME
>pathetic
that's the abraham accords though
it's a arab-jew alliance. If iran fucks with saudi, then they are cementing the abraham accords into reality
it would be really stupid
I mean they're trying to mess up the abraham accords, ultimately. That's what the hamas shit was about
Now that they're attacking directly, without their proxies, they are fucking it up. bigly!
Iran is so shit at direct attack.

>>508394260
>but they should still be able to bomb stationary and defenseless targets, and having them do it reduces the amount of international whining at us.
good point
And yes, that is true on both counts. They can attack them, and also it would be less blame on us
maybe getting iran to chimp out even more and close the straits of hormuz would be the best thing to happen
you know those mid east types don't give a shit about rules of engagement. they're going to be a bit more "loose" with their target selection

>>508394205
Iran has a right to defend itself.

>>508394295
But has little left to do it.

>>508394217
Maybe don't fund proxy forces and command them to strike if you can't take the return heat? Just a thought.

>>508394275
>Everyone supports Iran actually, except for jeets Nigerians and evangelicucks
hating israel doesn't mean they don't also hate iran, or tell you who they would support in a contest between the two
more importantly, if iran fully chimps out and tries to close the straits of hormuz, a whole lot of countries that don't give a shit either way suddenly WILL care, and very much.

>>508394281
>0 chance of that happening. Nafo has no interest. The Brits wont get burnt a second time. You'll have to sort yourselves out this time.
why wouldn't the euros get involved
They at least sent a part of their puny navies to help out with operation PROSPERITY GUARDIAN
I think they'll care a lot more if iran chimps out on the hormuz compared to houthis being cheeky bois in the red sea
so I'd expect a british and french response at least, from the euros
and probably other countries too from elsewhere

>>508394284
>Conversely, they add nothing to the bombing that Israel isn't already capable of, much less the US, so outside of the propaganda value of them joining in, which doesn't hold that much value given the Sunni Shiite split, there's no reason for them to go further and risk anything.
good point
What do you think about them adding things secretly?
or perhaps america demanding they join in, if saudi whines and cries for big daddy USA to help them. I think it's likely we demand they run joint missions with us, if they whine for us to help them

>>508394295
By firing on random cargo ships loaded with filipinos?

>>508394291
>>what would saudi do about it?
>They'd basically be attacking America's gas station, so they wouldn't have to do much, the U.S. would likely go full Desert Storm.
you know what, I didn't even think about that. USA attacked iraq, because iraq invaded kuwait and threatened (possibly) to also invade saudi arabia
So if iran chimps out on the hormuz, so the response will likely be somewhere in between operation praying mantis and desert storm
I think that summarizes it nicely

>>508394206
yes, and... ?

>>508394295
>Iran has a right to defend itself.
only people have the rights, in this case the right to self defense. Animals don't have rights my friend
well they have animal rights I suppose

>>508394303
don't question it
it's an ancient persian strategy that we uneducated western folx can't comprehend. Cutting off your nose to spite your face
or wait, was it shooting yourself in the foot?
something like that

>>508394297

What's odd is why didn't Iran and its proxies go all in back on October 7th?

Why allow Israel to take apart Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria one at a time?

Iran seriously has to have the dumbest fucking leadership in history. I thought the Russians were retards, but allowing your alliance to casually be defeated in detail takes the cake.

>>508394275
>disliking Israel=liking Iran
Is this logic on 80IQ?

>>508394290
based and cute but she'll still have to live in Jordan

>>508394305
>don't question it
i can't, they're between iraq and a hard place
they're damned if they do, damned if they don't lmao

>>508394299
honestly no one I know in Europe is eager for this war. There isn't the Israel fetish and in turn no hatred for Iran. Sure it's a dictatorship but they deal with other dictatorships. They where quite keen to work with them on energy and the like and the US kindly had ask them to fuck it of because of the US's Israel fetish.
All the goodwill oct. 7 gave Israel has been well and truly spent and then taken a massive loan against it.
If any west European country appears to back Israel in any way there will be massive protest from the lefties and brown. Frankly I can't blame them and I've been fined trice for throwing paint bombs at lefty and union protests.
The Eastern Europeans might want to but a) they aren't naval "powers" so they can't contribute much. Plus diverting any military force away while russia is still invading Ukraine will be seen as a weakening of the their own defenses. Saying that you are helping the US so they will help you won't really sooth public opinion after the white house melt down and Trump not giving a hard yes on art.5
The Italians and Spanish might maybe be more willing to help a bit. But their native lefty population is also some of the more radical and would go into overdrive.
Europe's political elite can survive higher oil prices. They can't survive getting sucked into some ME slogfest on the behest of the kikes, well bibi.

>>508394306
>Iran seriously has to have the dumbest fucking leadership in history.
It's what happens when your country's masquerade as a regional power is entirely posturing.
They have never had any legitimate military coordination or power, just the ability to fuel regional conflicts through terror funding and boogeyman threats.

The truly stupid decision is continuing to issue vague threats of doom and retaliation out of a sense of pride and resentment even though they're obviously beaten.
They could at least save their own people and infrastructure more destruction, but they won't, because muzzies just have to play the tough guy card.

>>508394307
>you have to hate the Iranians!
Because..? Iran never harmed me, they provide us with TKD kino so why shouldn't I like them?

>>508394306
the entire iranian strategy hinged on their enemies being less willing to up tge ladder of escalation than they were. once they got complacent and pushed it too far, they had nothing. people in the regime probably understood this, but it seems like most of the decision makers had been believing their own propaganda for a while

>>508394204 (OP)
Putin is laughing his ass right now, with the prices of oil ad gas rising it will feed the Kremlin's coffers for the war

>>508394295
Actually under the international law it doesn't. You can't deny ships innocent passage.

>>508394315
under international right you don't get to bomb a country because you feel like it
international law has been abandoned for quite some time now

>>508394316
>international law has been abandoned for quite some time now
You're a fool for thinking it existed to begin with.
"International law" just means "permitted by the U.S."

>>508394317
it was more "the rules we all agreed on if you break them we might do something about it if we feel like it"

>>508394225
all of these are memes

>>508394204 (OP)
>Saul
Shalom

>>508394290
>I like [mudslimes] because they hate kikes just like me!
I mean this sincerely, you're a fucking retard and they would never differentiate between you and a kikelover next to you
>HYPERSONICS
Iran doesn't have any hypersonic weapons, retard

>>508394312
Their actions are just helping Israel by this point

>>508394204 (OP)
>escalate when your opponents already have total air superiority
Bold strategy. Let's see if the Iranian military's pension fund will be up to it.

>>508394204 (OP)
The axis of resistance will continue no matter what.

>>508394317
Presumptuousness is the first step to have your empire crashing, Joe. Ask the Romans.

>>508394324
Continue producing crappy AI images?

>>508394324
At about 10% pre-October 7th strength, sure

>>508394324
nothing against them, but what's the point?

why not make peace with Israel and sell oil to the West?

>>508394239
ILold

>>508394300
Tacit support by allowing the usage of their airspace and US bases on their land, not kvetching too hard about Gaza, as well as sharing any intelligence that they have that Mossad and the American glowniggers somehow missed and maybe supplying some weapons to the inevitable rebels that are going to pop up, is probably more then enough while being readily deniable.

>>508394316
war is not an international right, and neither is supporting proxy forces to wage war, so here we are.

>>63881603
>all the fever dreams of a schizo in one crayon drawing

>>508394332
been a while since he posted it, too

>>508394333
I was about to say, pretty sure Easter has been and gone, even in the Orthodox religious calendar.

>>508394204 (OP)
Iranian fishing boats + sea mines hitting oil tankers. US minelayers can sweep/detonate them effectively, but guaranteeing shipping lanes is expensive.
This is a job for the Puller ESB, they should park it in the strait.

>>508394316

Fuck around->Find out.jpg

>>508394211
I dunno, man. Looking at wikipedia, it seems like only two ships hit Iranian mines after the USN showed up, and one of those happened on the first day of our involvement. Admittedly, the second was more of a fuckup (being the USS Samuel B. Roberts) but we got lucky and there weren't any fatalities and the ship returned to service the next year.
It's not obviously a great job, but "shit"?

>>508394217
>Memory-holes 45 years of IRGC fuckery which killed many hundreds of Americans.

>>508394337
We have better minesweepers now. The Navy ESB carries a bunch of MH-53Es and Mk 105 sleds and all they do is pull up mines.

>>508394208
The Gulf states don't have the Iron Dome to protect their refineries and oil infrastructure, and they are closer to Iran than Israel, so more missiles are in range. Oil prices surge and cause massive inflation. Powell would not cut rates, and the instability could further fracture the MAGA coalition. Iran would get fucked either way, I don't think arab 5head pilots would make much of a difference.

>>508394218
Hardkill = best kill

>>508394291
>America's gas station
Not so much anymore, not for decades. But Chyna will care a very great deal.

>>508394316
there is more of an argument to be made for bombing iran's MILITARY installations than for blocking trade and civilan ships flagged by other countries than israel

>>508394338
While we're at it let's not memory-hole the USS Liberty "Incident".

>>508394204 (OP)
>But that would be political suicide for Iran
Yes, and? I mean, sure, you'd anger not just the US but the neighbors and even Europe. You can expect an Iraq 3.0.
But that's as much political suicide for Iran as it is for the US. See how the public opinion will go with yet another forever war in the middle east. Because that Iraq 3.0 won't be solvee with just lobbing missiles and B2 deliveries. Boots on tje ground will be needed, same as it always was, and always will.
See how those midterms will go when American soldiers die. This is the trap Iran is setting up. It's obvious to everyone, from Iran to the US. This is why there are desperate calls for making DEALS. But why would Iran take it, when they have the perfectly functional trap that worked again and again and will work again. See Vietnam, see Afghanistan. All you have to do is work the opinion of the Americans, and god knows they're fickle like an easy bitch, then you just get back in power. Taliban says hi.

>>508394343
If they aren't firing upon US ships our justification for carte blanche firing upon their military installations isn't justified. This isn't a war, and we're not in a war. If it becomes apparent that Iran's going to be a bunch of shitheads, we can start testing our our JASSM-ER missile delivery systems. I'd love to see a US Air Force video showing the rotary rack being used on a B-52H

>>508394347
>If they aren't firing upon US ships our justification for carte blanche firing upon their military installations isn't justified.
It would be. Freedom of navigation and all that.

Revolvers: 357 vs 44?
I have the revolver bug. My brain tells me that a 357 is the right choice for it being economical as well as leaving the option of firing 38 spl, but my heart tells me that that's cope and that 44 is the real deal. What do you guys think?

>>508394346
Please tell me a Russian wrote this?

>>508394348
We can just sit tight and wait for them to make that mistake, optics and all that. They will FAFO, we will respond by kicking their teeth in just like last time.

>>508394316
>break one of the most sacrosanct of world treaties, the NPT
>have your nuclear industry and military command crippled as a result
>"b-b-but international law! This is illegal!"
Thank G-d you people are too stupid to be a real threat.

>>508394344
>liberty was memory holed
I get that you learned about the USS libert through le based nigress candace owens but even the kikes owned up to it and paid reparations for years after it

>>508394338
i can't believe we let them get away with bombing america

>>508394338
>Americans squatting in a Muslim country uninvited
>get killed
>"OMG wtf"
dumb jew

>>508394204 (OP)
>Operation Preying Mantis
About 1 day and then Iran will seethe about it but do nothing.

>>508394204 (OP)
it will mostly affect the asian market
plus, saudi/uae already have the means to go around it, so it will be a temp impact, and by that time usa will level all the mullas in iran and change the regime in a week, they know it and that's why they won't do it.
The clear fact is iran turned out to be a paper tiger big mouth threat that can't even secure its airspace, they won't do shit

>>508394346
>10. General bullshit
war never changes

>>508394204 (OP)
why bother? let it rot.

Does nobody have flags or is it just JIDF?

>>508396608
worthless thread from worthless mod moving it here. probably /k/ - baffled they wouldn't keep their sucking off kikes propaganda around.