>>508578906>Who is he worried for?The pacific half of NATO. This includes Japan, SK, Austr, NZ. Most of the oil of the Middle East goes to India, China, Aus, etc. Iran, if it truly wanted to wield untold devastation would, the second a war between them and the US/israel would mine the straits of Hormuz, mine the Bar-el-bas? strait, bomb the shit out of the Suez and bomb every oil refinery/derrick in the middle east from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, etc. Best case scenario is that Iran gets invaded, gov't overthrown, and those places rebuilt. Maybe two years if you didn't give a shit about human life and used slave labor, and that is after hostilities cease. Global oil would drop 40% from its current height. Before the shale revolution that drop would have been closer to 55%.
Most synthetic fertilizer that China, India, Japan, etc, need to grow crops to feed people requires the reserves from the Mid-east. India would definitely, immediately go to war with Pakistan to get land access to Iranian oil reserves to not have millions of people starve, and that would go nuclear. China would go to war with India because India/China are in a soft power regional conflict, and no fucking way is China giving India access to starve its people.
In terms of NATO, the US would have to decide which countries starve. Is SK more important than Japan? Is AUS more important than Japan? You are looking at about, a conservative estimate, 250 million people dying of starvation in a year after the war erupts. Perhaps more.
ANd this is just analyzing oil. Global trade with the Suez is another beast entirely. And Africa. And water. This can shift things dramatically.