Thread 509111982

The US already had one quarter of negative GDP. One more (ending right now) and recession is official. Since trump is bragging about $86b in tariffs, that means he deflated the economy by 86b. The tariffs also increased inflation (the CPI is obviously fake and gay) so the Fed can't cut rates. In a recession. Corporate bond holders will run for the exits, triggering a tsunami of selling by Japan and China, which causes corporate interest rates to rise, causing defaults, and down the drain we go. Earnings will go negative, so stocks tank. The government will bail everyone out, and US treasuries will be downgraded, which means the yield must rise, which means prices must fall, which triggers another tsunami of selling by Japan and China. Trump realises the deficit can never be repaid, and does what he has done 9x before...default.

Then there's the Israeli false flag on 4th July. And WW3. And the falling US population. And a hundred other reasons to short stocks.

Kikes pumped the market to new highs Friday so shorts would cover, and everyone would pour back into the market. Now comes the Jewish rug pull

fell for it again award

>>509111982 (OP)
How do corporate bonds and earnings or any of that other shit you're talking about affect me as a NEET shut-in?

you all voted for this, so I can't wait to see you cry when Trump finally tanks the economy

>>509112666
Famine, gas, water and power loss

>>509112367
meh

>>509112746
Only 2 more weeks to go

>>509112666
Nice try Satan. Your allocation of NEET bucks is about to get (((clipped)))

>>509112675
This. Watching MAGAts find out will be glorious.

>>509111982 (OP)
ALL. TIME. HIGH.

>>509111982 (OP)
Based bull trap melt up spotter.

I liquidated my SPY holdings last week a hair under the new ATH... Legit taking the train out of the country and starting elsewhere.

>>509111982 (OP)
No mention of stablecoins. Why do you even own stocks in 2025? shit will be bad but not as catastrophic as you make it out to be.

>>509112666
You vill be kicked out of the house.

>>509112367
>horrendous
it's not horrendous until your banknotes look like pic related for a few years

>>509111982 (OP)
Biden already changed the definition.
Two negative quarters of GDP is no longer a recession.

>>509111982 (OP)
I can't believe I'm saying this but this market is better than the Bidens market. ATHs have been broken.

>>509111982 (OP)
>negative GDP
government spending shouldn't be included in the GDP.

>>509111982 (OP)
one can only hope

>>509111982 (OP)
idc the main people who have the most to lose from the crash that has been put of forever are mostly the big corporations and boomers

>>509112613
Is this some gay way of saying Palantir’s PE ratio won’t hit 1000

>>509113186
Does your car have a front windscreen? Or do you drive forwards looking in the rear view mirror?

>>509111982 (OP)
>the CPI is obviously fake and gay)
ya know why, right? benefits are tied to it. thats why when inflation was going crazy they arbitrarily used bullshit new metrics to keep cpi at half of what it actually was/is. had they been honest about it full zogbux pay would have gone up another 20k easily and it would have threatened israels blood money.

>>509111982 (OP)
>LINE GOES UP
>LINE GOES DOWN
AAAAAAAAHHHHHH

>>509111982 (OP)
Neh

>>509111982 (OP)
At this point the economy is totally decoupled from reality. There's no predicting when it will finally crash. We are in uncharted territory. It's all vibes and memes.

>>509111982 (OP)
part of me doesnt want to be right about this but if everything really is that tits up then they need an out. The obvious out for such an economic fuckup would be war. How big of a war depends how far past our borders it ripples out (Id be shocked if everyone isnt in the nigger piss filled wave pool together). But it couldnt just be a war it would need to be a complete game changer. for that type of war there needs to be a cause or it just wouldnt work. It would need to be the sort of war where enough people are entirely ok with any form of protest being dealt with as sedition. And a war like that needs a major cause. And, the total state of things is so complicated that this cause would need to provide one giant problem (serious enemy bad guys, goy) and also a couple not immediately obvious solutions. Real estate is too expensive and the factors driving those costs up wont disappear because of an economic disaster. prices might go down a little but they wont go down to anywhere near reasonable. Too many people, too few nice (white) neighborhoods.

Now that that is out of the way, I think the cause, their "perfect" cause, would be to clear out an entire metropolitan area. Some sort of nasty chemical agent that would simply eradicate everyone within say 20 miles of a major city. all of a sudden there would be a new industry, crazy hazardous decontamination of chicago, with several years worth of decent paying jobs. Then once its cleaned, sheeit we got a whole extra city now for you goy to live in. And, it would make all the plebs in burgerstan and europe blood thirsty for total war against iran, china, russia and india.
>india
yea watch lel. they are as stupid as they are untrustworthy, theyll plant their flag next to chinas.

>>509114154
>At this point the economy is totally decoupled from reality
been that way since the shit that lead up to 2008. well over 20 years.

>>509114154
Greenspan killed fundamental analysis a long time ago. Now we smoke rocks and stare at triangles.

>>509113555
I sold my car five years ago for booze money.

>>509111982 (OP)
You retards said this three months ago, now we're at ATH. Sorry /pol/ but your always going to be wrong on the stock market. It's how Jews stay rich

>>509112793
mine shows a current dip, yours shows till jan2025

>>509114704
nvm, im wronbg

>>509114581
So do you think they'll just keep raising the debt ceiling, going further and further into debt, printing more money into existence, and somehow hyperinflation won't occur? Is it because you just think it'll happen so gradually that it won't happen within our lifetime? Or do you think somehow a course correction back toward solvency is still possible?

>>509111982 (OP)
Government spending is part of GeeDeePee

>>509111982 (OP)
They redefined what recession means sweetie. Sorry there will NOT be ant negative growth on this day

>>509111982 (OP)
America's Debt/GDP ratio is like 124%, China's is 303%, let that sink in.

>>509111982 (OP)
Nothing is going to happen on July 4. Screenshot this.

>>509114915
Oh no we get hyper inflation. That's why jews use the stock market and it's so expensive normalfags can't even enter it anymore. It's the one of the most Jewish things on earth. It's why Hitler hated it.

>>509115133
2 more weeks?

>>509111982 (OP)
>Two more weeks!
Post screencaps of your short positions.

>>509114915
The money supply was increased by around 4-500% during covid, but we "only" got around 200% inflation from it. Cryptocurrency has been remarkably effective at absorbing printed dollars and retarding inflation.

>>509112793
Anon, thanks for being a voice of reason here. Most people think that all the noise they see on the news is going to give them an edge in investing, when in fact it’s precisely the opposite. Every investor’s thinks the same, so all of the news is priced in. Yes everyone thinks the economy is going to crash, so they act accordingly, therefore avoiding a crash. What people don’t understand is that a crash is mostly unpredictable. The 1987 crash for example, had no real external world event that caused it. It was completely random

>>509114335
I think 9/11's aftermath really showed what a nothing economy America really was. Despite people complaining about how they miss the 1990's, real wages in 1999 were basically the same they had been in 1979.

Literally, the American standard of living in 2000 was basically the same it had been in 1980. It was then lower than 1980 in 2010, and so on.

>>509111982 (OP)
>The government will bail everyone out, and US treasuries will be downgraded, which means the yield must rise, which means prices must fall, which triggers another tsunami of selling by Japan and China.

>>509119058
Central banks are now acquiring gold to back their own currencies, NOT to convert from gold to digital, but to give them a seat at the NYFed/BIS/IMF TOKENIZED ASSET table
the global pie is getting bigger for these classists, as they sell each of their own nation's future productivity, making the domestic pie much smaller for each citizen.

>>509111982 (OP)
Crash has been imminent for 18 years, but hasn't occurred, cause when you use fiat meme for money, you have infinite amount of bullshit tricks to pull more of them out of your ass and pretend that's how economy works and everyone will go along with it, cause their lives depend on this system, even if they get fucked in the ass by it too.
I say the economy will crash, when one of the critical resources runs out to fuel datacenters hosting videos with dancing genz boss in a mini and not a day sooner.

>>509119264
>you have infinite amount of bullshit tricks to pull more of them out of your ass
lol, this
Russia is already ahead of everyone else, as Russians use rubles issued by their own treasury and they give their own currency value

>>509119264
was that a datacenter they were at?

>>509111982 (OP)
>the fed can't cut rates

LOL

>>509119447
>russia is ahead of everyone else
lmfao i cant with you people

>>509113247
kys
>cope
>obsessed

>>509113784
fix the flag.

>>509111982 (OP)
Pajeet manlet thread

>>509120734
Too much effort bro, you do it pls

>>509111982 (OP)
The US stock market is entirely fraudulent.
It runs on hot air.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/lF7MR9hM0EE

>>509111982 (OP)
Post your phone number and address so you can live with the fate of your prediction.

>>509117434
There is no "priced in."

>>509112675
I assumed the economy was going to tank completely right after the election. In fact I am a bit disappointed that I was so wrong..

>>509111982 (OP)
Whenever I see a post like this I am comforted in the fact that this shit never happens

>>509119764
All they had to do was pay people to clean the streets to fix their own economy.

>>509111982 (OP)
Explain how my portfolio is more green than it's ever been then, nigger

IDK doesn't look too bad to me, but one wrong tweet could tank everything.

>>509111982 (OP)
>two more weeks until Economy crash/WW3/ayy lmaos fake invasion/Jesus Return etc

>>509111982 (OP)
Society is collapsing but I still have to pay taxes.

>>509111982 (OP)
it's an inevitability
unfortunately it's not even Trump's or Biden's or Obama's fault, it's build into our monetary system. Sure, they're evil shitheads for not calling it out, but so is literally everyone else in the government.
There's no one person to blame, but this one's gonna be really bad.

the only way out of it without blowing up the currency is most likely war economy against China

>>509123969
forgot picrel

>>509111982 (OP)
There won't be any "crash" there won't be any "collapse". You cling to these scenarios because they make you feel excited. The reality is you will live in this slow tedious social decline for the rest of your life until one day you get sick and die. That's not so exciting is it?

>>509122761
Didn't he say he was going to Tariff China AND India 500% for buying Russian gas?

>>509111982 (OP)
>Some retarded Bobo
Sorry idiot. The market has recovered totally.

>>509111982 (OP)
noone is literally projecting another negative quarter of growth. Its not the base case tardo.

Polymarkets arent even valuing it in over 27% - not that its the end all be all forward looking instrument, but its pretty telling...

Maybe youre right - I doubt it , but maybe you are. You shouldnt be so sure of yourself is all.

https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025

>>509111982 (OP)
>The tariffs also increased inflation (the CPI is obviously fake and gay)
financially illiterate moron

>>509111982 (OP)
>The government will bail everyone out

This negates everything else you said in your post and is bullish as fuck. And it's not the government that bails everyone out, but the Federal Reserve. A stock market crash, should one ever happen, will just trigger a Federal Reserve intervention to spike inflation again, with QE money printing and slashed interest rates, and it will be a V-shaped recovery into new all-time-highs, regardless of the economic realities occurring behind the scenes.

>>509114915
You say "hyperinflation" like its a bad thing. Post-2008, and especially post-2020, this country loves hyperinflation and not only is this country absolutely addicted to it, it needs it to continue to function (eg make line go up for as long as possible).

The British Empire took 150 years to collapse. The Roman Empire took 300.

In the 1960's the US had a space program where they did the math with pencil, paper and slide rules. Now math be racist n shit. We're halfway through the collapse already.

>>509124561
Hyperinflation is a bad thing. This drains your purchasing power. Most average people get completely fucked by hyperinflation.

>>509125040
What if I want to sell my used car to pay off my house?

>>509125040
>This drains your purchasing power. Most average people get completely fucked by hyperinflation.

You think I don't already know this? Do you really think the market cares about "average people"?

>>509111982 (OP)

We have been in a recession for years since they redefined it under Biden. Nothing is changing.

Sweden Yes
> https://www.youtube.com/shorts/gfSzMfwZ77Y
> https://www.youtube.com/shorts/lF7MR9hM0EE
> https://www.youtube.com/shorts/vxo96tbzIs8
> https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Hlvs7BRMkH8

The arabs are protesting their people being under occupation and genocide.
While the whites are dispossessed in their own land with absolutely nothing to fight for.

You can't have a borderless economic zone and a patriotic military force these things are mutually exclusive.

The west is in a controlled collapse, a controlled demolition of identity.
Islam, Judaism, Christianity, the ideas of Kings and Governments, Popes, Priests, transexuals with their 1 million different pro nouns, its all the same shit really.

At the core of all of these things is a transexual just crying to get out, some people have King or Kang as their pro noun as some President, but its all the same.

>>509111982 (OP)
>Fed can't cut rates. In a recession.
stupid nigger

>>509111982 (OP)
>CRASH IMMINENT
they'll be expecting at least one of us to be in the wreckage, brother

>>509111982 (OP)
Bad economy is good for the stock market because it will force the fed to lower interest rates. Also everything is already priced in. Numbers will continue to go up.

>>509111982 (OP)
>THE HAPPENINGS ARE HAPPENING
>THE REAL ESTATES ARE OVERWHELMING
>THE AI IS TAKING OVER
>THE BANKS ARE COLLAPSING
>THE YIELDS ARE SPIKING
>THE RATES ARE CUTTING
>THE PETRODOLLARS ARE DYING
>THE BONDS ARE DEFAULTING
>THE INSIDERS ARE SHORTING
>THE MONEYS ARE INFLATING
>THE PENSIONS ARE PONZYING
>THE FAMINES ARE COMING
>THE MARKETS ARE CRASHING
>THE JOBS ARE RECEEDING
>THE UBI'S ARE DROPPING
>THE DEBTS ARE PILING UP
>THE CYBERCRIMINALS ARE HACKING
>THE BLACKOUTS ARE COMING
>THE WORLD WARS ARE STARTING
>THE WEST HAS FALLEN
It's over but I still have to go to work tomorrow morning. I'm tired bros, I'm tired of this world. When will it finally be my turn to be on top?

>>509111982 (OP)
>foreigner thinks tariffs are bad for the bond market
Tell me you are obsessed and butthurt without actually telling me.

>>509119264
>>509119447
It's harder to see the crash when everything is perma going up due to inflation, but there must still be the same boom bust cycles.
Look at right now, everyone got "rich" during covid, and yet everyone is still poor.
There's many problems with the money printer, the biggest I see is that money is just going to be passed back and forth between reserve banks and commercial banks, and then just between the reserve bank and the government. Right now it's fucking small businesses but imagine when big business and commercial banks are doing nothing but interacting with the fed repo facilities. I think we're closer than people realize. I think we're also way closer than people realize to a debt jubilee and currency reset.

>>509111982 (OP)
14 more days mark my words. Stock up on ammo, fuel, bic lighters and band aids.

>>509112793
not a single dip in that chart in 3 years. it might not be a "meh." should be asking, what changed?

>>509117434
>so all of the news is priced in
this is obviously false. efficient markets hypothesis is well beyond debunked at this point.

>>509122730
Because you lost money even if stocks go up. US Dollar lost 10% of it's value in 6 months.

>>509111982 (OP)
Dude i fucking wish.
I dont usually say this but
"Nothing ever happens" is an accurate statement for markets.
Kikes are really good at keeping this shit afloat.

>>509111982 (OP)
oh fuck! an economic crash!
and this time is for real!
the other thousand times did not happen but this is the one guys! two more weeks!

>>509126878
damn, nu-pol can't get that picture.

>>509112746
Stop reading doomer headlines.
Every past stock market crash was an intentional rug pull.
Nothing indicates (((they))) want that yet.

>>509111982 (OP)
Great timing for that work/volunteer medicaid commitment in the Big Beautiful Boondoggle

>>509114463
Obama removed Mark to Market accounting, rendering balance sheets meaningless.
ONLY if that is rescinded will there be a crash.
Or the government comes out and bans Bitcoin or some shit.
Like I said, crashes are INTENTIONAL.

>>509111982 (OP)
2 more weeks!!!!!!

>>509134918
Maybe they know nobody will support their war in the middle east 4.0 and the only way they'll get recruits is to fuck the economy so hard people are pressed into service. Or something.

>>509111982 (OP)
It was inedibibble

>>509117434
>completely random
They always say this, but it isn't true.
I can remember in 08, the media were saying nobody could've seen this coming, when there were people who saw it coming a mile away. One guy named Reinhardt specified a date even, and he was right.
In 1987 a tax proposal would've made it harder for all the mergers and acquisitions that dominated that era
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0304405X89900718#

Market crashes come about when the biggest investment banks and hedge funds - the bond vigilantes - get mad at the government and throw a tantrum.
Want to predict the next crash to the day? Watch and see if Trump or the SEC or the Federal Reserve does something that makes them mad.
(the 2020 crash wasn't about covid btw but an SEC investigation into JPMs silver manipulation that triggered a spike in overnight lending rates and wrecked credit markets).

>>509134473
>>509134239
>>509134918
>>509135525
>>509135269

So what you're saying is that the entire field of economics is fake and gay and basically an illusion masquerading as math, because, in the end, all that really matters is psychology, which is what keeps men showing up to those jobs that keep society running. And men will continue to do so no matter how bad the math gets. No matter how bad the quality of life gets. His mind is pacified with drugs, entertainment, and hopelessness.

>>509136180
You seem very knowledgeable. Isn't there an investor with a semi-famous investing website who made a killing for his clients during 2008? I just forget his name. IIRC he made people hundred of millions on his advice.

>>509136840
Michael Burry

>>509135525
servicing the rich will be their only option

>>509136757
>So what you're saying is that the entire field of economics is fake and gay and basically an illusion masquerading as math,
Right
>because, in the end, all that really matters is psychology,
Wrong, reality matters. reality IS
>which is what keeps men showing up to those jobs that keep society running.
Necesity does this.
>And men will continue to do so no matter how bad the math gets. No matter how bad the quality of life gets.
They sell that there's no alternative, we say "mas vale lo malo conocido que lo bueno por conocer"
>His mind is pacified with drugs, entertainment, and hopelessness.
yes

>>509135525
The economy is already fucked for young people.
I don't think they'll get their war in the middle east anytime soon because they went overboard with covid and now too many will call bullshit on anything the government tries.
You can't have mass immigration to where even redditors notice and then whip up nationalism. It doesn't work that way.
What those at the top DO want is to max out what they grab from dying baby boomers so they can't pass wealth down to their kids. So far boomers seem content to spend it all on cruises and restaurants.
And Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme but now US states are buying up 'reserves' of it.
Watch for regulatory changes at any rate, that is all you can do. Or if an actual trade war with China kicks off.

>>509136757
>all that really matters is psychology
Yes.
The book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds was written in 1841.
Consider what all these think tanks have discovered since about manipulating the herd.

>>509136757
Also, read the Gospels. Yes everything is fake and gay in this world which is why we must look Above.

I really don't give a fuck about the economy or whatever other gay faggot shit the government is doing anymore. I just want to be left the fuck alone. I'm self sufficient and own my home. Literally not my problem if the world goes to hell. I just want the government, the council, and everybody else to fuck off and leave me alone. That's why I put a sign on my front gate that says NO TRESPASSING - TRESPASSERS WILL BE RAPED AND KILLED. The Police removed it without my consent and frankly I'm very upset. Anyway you can all take your CPIs, interest rates and treasury bonds and shove them right up your fucking ass, niggers.

>>509136840
Michael Burry.
And in 2001 it was Jim Chanos who famously shorted Enron.
I'm not knowledgeable however. Just recognized patterns. I saw the rallies beforehand too. Have I capitalized on any of it? Nope.

>>509137374
>I just want to be left the fuck alone
>That's why I put a sign on my front gate that says NO TRESPASSING - TRESPASSERS WILL BE RAPED AND KILLED

I like it but unfortunately I think you achieved the opposite effect with this one. Now you are undoubtedly marked on your local police's watch list

>>509137633
Fantastic. I hope they send a brunette over.

>>509111982 (OP)
Haven't you heard, a recession is no longer two negative quarters. It's whatever the Fed say it is when they feel like it.

>>509111982 (OP)
they'll probably release fake numbers, inflated by the April-May increased orders by companies seeking to frontrun tariffs, and then those numbers will be revised back down a month or two later. by that time, a geopolitical crisis can be manufactured to divert attention from the crumbling economy.

everything is under control.