Oregon State University study on Israel-Iran war - /pol/ (#509651792) [Archived: 548 hours ago]

Anonymous ID: 74KPInXFUnited States
7/6/2025, 2:21:47 PM No.509651792
IMG_1824
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md5: e016e50331a6380d678baf7c9713f000🔍
Iran fired 545 MRBM/IRBMs, costing Iran between $4.3-$13.4 billion depending on the types of missiles used (estimated price tag between $8 million and $25 million). 28 Iranian missiles fell in other countries due to failure or interception.

Unknown number of Israeli AD interceptors fired, but 36 missiles impacted inside Israeli populated areas giving Israeli missile defense a success rate of 93.39%.

Light damage to 5 military bases based on satellite photos. Heavy damage to Haifa oil refinery, hospital, and University research building. All other damage were civilian dwellings or businesses.

1,100 drones fired by Iran, all but 1 intercepted or fell in other countries.

Iranian missile fire rate decreased drastically by day 5, Israeli interception rates began decrease by day 8 dropping to 80% effectiveness by day 12

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/07/05/iran-struck-five-israeli-military-bases-12-day-war/

Thoughts?
Replies: >>509652075 >>509652199 >>509652263 >>509652291 >>509652930 >>509654823
Anonymous ID: m4eLo0b5
7/6/2025, 2:25:28 PM No.509651945
I dont think dictatorships care about the costs, i also think that US costs for weapons is ridiculously corrupt through lobbyists.
Anonymous ID: xSpYbcESCanada
7/6/2025, 2:28:06 PM No.509652075
>>509651792 (OP)
Seems extemely optimistic on israel's side. What university was it? Can we see the study?
Replies: >>509652192 >>509653190
Anonymous ID: FBEMSp55United States
7/6/2025, 2:30:42 PM No.509652192
>>509652075
Oregon State University. Not famous for any sort of military or intelligence analysis-type programs. It's barely more than an agriculture school.
>t. Oregonfag
Replies: >>509654547 >>509654820
Anonymous ID: NjOOkfoEIsrael
7/6/2025, 2:30:51 PM No.509652199
>>509651792 (OP)
You gonna pay for all of it tho Bubba. BB got shekels out of your Healthcare for some reason kek
Anonymous ID: BgrZp92fItaly
7/6/2025, 2:32:02 PM No.509652263
>>509651792 (OP)
jewish university jewish propaganda, simple as
Anonymous ID: Wf9Vy1VLNetherlands
7/6/2025, 2:32:41 PM No.509652291
>>509651792 (OP)
Seems consistent with my own observations and the observations of my sources.
Anonymous ID: gwLGsacD
7/6/2025, 2:46:45 PM No.509652930
>>509651792 (OP)
>virtually all Iranian drones were intercepted
Yeah, this is entirely expected. The point of the drone attacks is to force Israel to divert aircraft from offensive use to defensive use, thus reducing the intensity of Israeli air attacks

>estimated price tag between $8 million and $25 million per missile
Serious doubt [X].
Iran doesn't buy missiles from Lockheed Martin. Furthermore, it must be kept in mind that prices are 5 times cheaper on average in Iran than in the US

>independent researchers got access to unmodified, complete high resolution SAR satellite data of Israel from this period
Also serious doubt [X].
These satellite operators' most important customer is the US government. They aren't likely to hand out data that embarrasses the US or Israel. It can be assumed the data will be highly selective or fabricated.

>independent researchers know the real exact number of missiles and drones Iran fired
Do I even need to say it?
Not even the Israeli government can know this, because some missiles will contain decoys. The US might know, because SBIRS will likely see the launch exhaust.
Replies: >>509653110
Anonymous ID: l9MlspemUnited States
7/6/2025, 2:50:31 PM No.509653110
>>509652930
>Yeah, this is entirely expected. The point of the drone attacks is to force Israel to divert aircraft from offensive use to defensive use, thus reducing the intensity of Israeli air attacks

Most drones were intercepted by aircraft or iron dome, neither of which are used to intercept ballistic missiles

> Serious doubt [X].
Iran doesn't buy missiles from Lockheed Martin. Furthermore, it must be kept in mind that prices are 5 times cheaper on average in Iran than in the US

Those missile estimations are for Chinese and North Korean equivalents, not American. The cost of the Chinese DF-21 MRBM for instance is $26 million
Replies: >>509653477
Anonymous ID: l9MlspemUnited States
7/6/2025, 2:51:58 PM No.509653190
>>509652075
It’s not to seem optimistic for the israeli size when you have people like McGregor claiming 1/3rd of Tel Aviv was destroyed
Anonymous ID: gwLGsacD
7/6/2025, 2:57:12 PM No.509653477
>>509653110
>Most drones were intercepted by aircraft or iron dome, neither of which are used to intercept ballistic missiles
The very same aircraft being used to shoot down drones could otherwise have been used to attack Iran. That is the point

>The cost of the Chinese DF-21 MRBM for instance is $26 million
Based on what?
Replies: >>509654289 >>509654607
Anonymous ID: gwLGsacD
7/6/2025, 3:11:47 PM No.509654289
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md5: d9f8bc791e0bd27bd1aa91a7822c6ceb🔍
>>509653477
I found the cost of Chinese OrienSpace's Gravity-1 orbital launch vehicle. The quoted cost is <$6k/kg, which becomes <$39m for the whole rocket. Gravity-1 weighs 400 tonnes, has 5x 2.65m diameter SRBs and an additional 2x 2.65m upper stage SRBs. I think it is safe to say that a DF-21, which weighs <15 tonnes and has one 1.4m diameter SRB and one upper stage SRB, does not cost 64% of Gravity-1. Especially since DF-21 has vastly superior economies of scale.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-01-11/VHJhbnNjcmlwdDc2ODQ3/index.html
Replies: >>509654579
Anonymous ID: yttjYci1United States
7/6/2025, 3:16:38 PM No.509654547
>>509652192
This basically. How do they have any better information than I do? Unless you have clandestine access you're just collating news reports that are probably propaganda to begin with
Anonymous ID: FLg+Z9VeUnited States
7/6/2025, 3:17:11 PM No.509654579
>>509654289
This gives $10-15 million per DF-21

https://news.usni.org/2021/01/27/u-s-admiral-china-can-keep-pouring-money-into-anti-ship-ballistic-missiles


New Chinese IRBM DF-26 is $20 million

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/navy-freaked-china-wants-more-df-26-aircraft-killer-missiles-213409

Ballistic missiles are very expensive, much more than any interceptor missile. They bankrupted the Soviet Union. It’s not like a Qassam rocket
Replies: >>509655038
Anonymous ID: gwLGsacD
7/6/2025, 3:17:36 PM No.509654607
GAqo5SwbIAACjS2
GAqo5SwbIAACjS2
md5: f7b9cc85288a692ccbbda1f9b962e786🔍
>>509653477
I found the cost of Chinese OrienSpace's Gravity-1 orbital launch vehicle. The quoted cost is <$6k/kg, which becomes <$39m for the whole rocket. Gravity-1 weighs 400 tonnes, has 5x 2.65m diameter SRBs and an additional 2x 2.65m upper stage SRBs. I think it is safe to say that a DF-21, which weighs <15 tonnes and has one 1.4m diameter SRB and one upper stage SRB, does not cost 67% of Gravity-1. Especially since DF-21 has vastly superior economies of scale.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-01-11/VHJhbnNjcmlwdDc2ODQ3/index.html
Anonymous ID: Q+qd/1Z8
7/6/2025, 3:21:35 PM No.509654820
>>509652192
Corvallis and Eugene are two of the most Jewish cities in the entire United States.
Anonymous ID: cQukusX/United States
7/6/2025, 3:21:38 PM No.509654823
iran tel aviv attack_thumb.jpg
iran tel aviv attack_thumb.jpg
md5: 6a5ebadf1a8c7b0f34daee0a233295fb🔍
>>509651792 (OP)
>36 missiles impacted inside Israeli populated areas giving Israeli missile defense a success rate of 93.39%.
according to who? Israel? Because they are lying out their ass. Like 20 hit in this one salvo alone

you cant tell me that all these videos only recorded 36 strikes:
https://files.catbox.moe/7z5rjy.mp4
Anonymous ID: gwLGsacD
7/6/2025, 3:25:51 PM No.509655038
>>509654579
I don't find any cost figure mentioned in the USNI article. A poster in the comment section assumed a DF-21 costs $10m, is that were you got the figure from?

The cost estimate for the DF-26 in the National Interest article is based on a guess by some think tank CNAS guy called Tom Shugart

>Ballistic missiles are very expensive
Relatively speaking, yes, but what the American military would pay for item X is not what the Chinese or Iranian military pay

>They bankrupted the Soviet Union
The USSR never went "bankrupt". It collapsed because of Gorbachev's botched political reforms.
Anonymous ID: z21RVCOaUnited States
7/6/2025, 3:27:18 PM No.509655108
Iran is a medium-sized economy that has been under extreme sanctions for 40 years.

The US would sell California to China before they let Israel run out of missles.