>>512693112What choice does Ukraine have? If you don't see the echo of history chugging down the line, I don't know what to tell you. The Chechens made the mistake of accepting a false white peace. They're now a part of Russia. Putin's designs on Ukraine go further than what they'll get from any peace deal and those designs must be accounted for in what comes next. If Russia is allowed any kind of end it can spin as victory at home, it's just going to rest, learn the lessons, and try again. It'll probably succeed once it gets the breathing room.
The scary part is that even NATO membership might be insufficient. America under Trump shows no interest in world stability. Where previously it tried to be the guarantor of systemic stability, guarding it from parties who seek opportunity in chaos... Trump seeks himself to destabilize the world so he can join the ranks of the destabilizers. All of this from the position as the most-powerful nation in the history of the world.
I don't think Ukraine has a choice. Europe will keep supplying it with what arms it can because Russia is economically and geopolitically rabid. The results of its war are an overheated economy, a populace accustomed to conflict, and very little opportunity to stabilize in peacetime. War is cheaper than peace for Russia right now and for the foreseeable future this is going to be true. When you combine an ultrahot Russia, a reclining America, and a critical period of European vulnerability before it's able to remilitarize and fully stand on its own two legs... we're looking at a very plausible start to WWIII once you realize that China is just waiting in the wings to enact its own autocratic designs.
I'm not trying to be alarmist and none of this is locked in yet, but it's eminently plausible.