>>512738788 (OP)
>Possibility A:
Peace deal with territorial concessions, the war ends, russia keeps current territory, ukraine continues to receive a flood of military aid from europe and becomes the largest military in europe while still being the poorest country.
This kind of end would be a shattering blow to the prestige of the current government and would likely open the door to a relapse towards auhoritarian oligarchy, which would inevitably become a crony state to russia again.
>Possibility B:
Peace negotiations fail, war continues as a grinding contest of attrition. Ukraine loses this war of attrition through compounding manpower shortages, its fronts eventually collapse, creating encirclements, breakthroughs and a rapid deterioration of the front, moscow takes a maximalist approach and the European security environment is fundamentally altered by its potential front with Russia doubling in size via a new russia-controlled puppet regime. Ukrainian resistance will likely be prolonged for years and the amount of devastation in the country combined with the incumbent depopulation would severely limit russia's ability to profit from war-spoils. Russia's economy will likely never fully recover, especially with its low birthrates and it may be compelled to make further attempts at conquest to keep its ailing economy afloat.
>Possibility C:
Same as B except Ukraine ultimately wins the war of attrition as Russia's economy runs out of road. In this scenario rather than a grueling counteroffensive to retake territory, Russia will likely sue for some kind of peace once it becomes clear that a humiliating battlefield reversal is unavoidable, and territory will be exchanged in the peace process. Russia has a vested interest in maintaining a credible military because Ukraine and NATO are not its only strategic threats. It can't afford a military defeat in Ukraine and would accept a diplomatic defeat to avert one.