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A ceasefire will be agreed upon in the coming weeks, note that I say CEASEFIRE, not peace. The conflict will essentially be put on pause as both sides arm up. Ukraine will continue to receive aid, mainly EU and will have no security guarantees, nor will they need to concede land. Putin will accept a ceasefire to keep playing Trump and delay tariffs. The ceasefire will likely hold for a few months to a year at most.