Thread 513253341

Janitor deleted this thread from /k/. Let's see what opinion can /pol/ give on the matter.

There’s a real chance that a country which gave up its nukes for “security guarantees” will lose a fifth of its land to a nuclear power. For any sane regional power, the only real insurance policy left will be building their own nukes.

1) How fast and easy would it be to obtain nukes for an industrialized country, like Vietnam?
2) What would be the response of existing nuclear powers? What can they do if ten countries in different parts of the world start nuclear programs at once?
3) Does the U.S. plan to just hand out nukes to frens (Poland, Estonia, Taiwan) before they get Ukraine'd, or keep pretending paper guarantees mean something?
4) Russia already gave nukes to Belarus. Which other russian allies get armed next?
5) Are we heading back to a 1960s-style world of grim stability under MAD, or is this the prelude to nuclear free-for-all and collapse?
6) What, if anything, could “international community” actually do to stop the outcomes of the war from rewriting the rules for good?

>be nuclear power
>try conventional invasion
>get conventional response
>you get even minor gains -> push for peace
>you get broomed -> retreat and threaten nukes
>rinse
>repeat
How would you counter that?

Total nuclear proliferation bump 1

>>513253521
What are you smoking

>>513253341 (OP)
>1) How fast and easy would it be to obtain nukes for an industrialized country, like Vietnam?
Something like this doesn't happen in a vacuum. If you've got time I would advise looking up how Pakistan and India got their nukes, the role of espionage, and geopolitical interests from both North Korea and China at the time.

>>513253709
Why? We are at stage 3:
>you get even minor gains -> push for peace
right now.

>>513253341 (OP)
I reckon it not hard for an industrialized country to make a nuke. If impoverished, backward china can do it in the 60s then modern days Nam can do it.
But no way in hell china will let them do it. No super powers want their neighbors have nukes. None. Nada. Russia and China is special case cause both are powerful and they can't strong arm each other.

>>513253709
Look at that map you fucking retard

>>513254197
This is a war of attrition. Lines barely move just like WW1 because every square km is extremely heavily entreched/fortified. Then everything collapses overnight. If you want to know what happens when you try rapid maneuver warfare, you need only look at the endless columns of destroyed American-supplied vehicles during the counterattack towards Crimea.

>>513253341 (OP)
>3) Does the U.S. plan to just hand out nukes to frens (Poland, Estonia, Taiwan) before they get Ukraine'd, or keep pretending paper guarantees mean something?
What does that even mean if the launch codes and everything are still in American hands? Moving nukes here or to the baltics or to finland is only there for first strike capabilities. Don't bother entering discussion with me just show me where do you get your information from because you're too stupid to come up with the bs yourself.

>>513254345
It's a frozen conflict, russia can't advance, Ukraine cant advance. It will end like north Korea/south korea.

>>513254345
Maybe yes, maybe no, maybe sex, i don't know.
Current frontlines are stable for 3 years and its enough for Ukraine to not recapture even 1 oblast for argument pro-proliferation to stand. Fuck, even if Ukraine achieves borders of 1991 the fact it had to fight a defensive war instead of waving a nuclear dick Kim-style is already a pro-proliferation argument. And outcomes may be much worse than that.

Tragedy of commodities bump 2
Give a country the option to toss treaties for land and nukes, and they’ll take it every time.

>>513253341 (OP)
ukraine never had nukes

>>513253341 (OP)
you start your post on a wrong premise. Ukraine never owned nukes, they never in all of history ever had any means to use any, no matter how much they would have wanted to.
They had soviet nukes with their means to use exclusively within russia.
But nobody wants to have, even unusable, nukes parked in an unstable country with irresponsible people, hence why everyone pressures them to return them.
Can you retards stop repeating the myth as if that was a reason for anything?

>>513254613
you say that while Russia is advancing. You probably would say that too about ww1, just a frozen conflict, eh? it's called attritional warfare you dumb mutt

>>513256564
Yeah, they just need 3 times their population to secure the donbass retard.

>>513253341 (OP)
Nukes aren't real.

>>513254613
There is no such thing as a frozen conflict if your birthrate is below replacement level, regardless of how low your casualties are.

>>513256309
>>513256456
Budapest memorandum was real, security guarantees were real. And even if they never had nukes, do you think they regret not obtaining it now? Don't forget Ukraine has a lot of Uranium and basically created soviet space/nuclear program. So they are still the perfect reason for any nation to pursue nuclear program at all cost, if it wants to survive next 30 years.

>>513253341 (OP)
>country which gave up its nukes

This is the misconception which causes the rest of your ligical fallacies.

Ukraine gave up nothing. In the 1991 they were gifted freedom and land to call their own. Nukes were only taken back by their rightful owner and the successor to the USSR. Without USSR Ukraine would not really exist, at least not in the form it is today.

>>513256692
Why does Russia still exist then?

>>513256694
Are you describing yourself or Ukraine? OK you're both equally losing, congrats i stand corrected.

>>513256906
>country which gave up its nukes
It doesn't matter if it has no nukes in a critical moment to protect herself. Each country wants own nukes to not get Ukraine'd by existing nuclear powers.

>>513253341 (OP)
Representing less than 50% of your supposed population isnt a country. Nuke proliferation that threatens the interests of any large nuclear country will be dealt with as Iran was.

>>513256932
Assuming the casualties, birthrate, mortality rate, migration and population are identical, then yes, we would be equally losing, you retard.

>>513256906
The lesson here is, that a large empire shouldn't give up a big region for nothing... Just a few short decades later the big region is working with the enemy against the original empire.
Russia shouldn't have given up Ukraine (without a war) in 1991, that was the big mistake.
It would be the same scenario if California wants independence some day. 20 years later they would be a China proxy killing real americans

>>513256794
and let's not forget that they completely fucked up and begged to be hit. Maybe don't go trying to join hostile military alliances, repressing the majority of the country, re-educating them to set the population on some hate-filled nonsense vendetta and just fucking think for even once in all of those years.
If anything, Russia should be commended for being so patient with these retards

Can you fuckers shut up about whose winning is stronger, its not the topic of the thread.

nukes are fake

>>513257359
Lesson here is everybody should get nukes asap to survive next 30 years. Imagine having a war on your territory because a couple of mutts decided the events they never witnessed are unjust. Nah, let warmongers find better reasons, the reasons that would justify turning their own country to a parking lot. 70 years and still looking for them? Well-well.

>>513257555
Checked.
>>513256914

>cached arguments
>no original thoughts
>some dick measure contest
>focusing on who is guilty or right instead of predicting behavior of actors and results
/pol/ is dead. It's time for my boring ass to fuck off. Everybody take care.

>>513258013
I think in order to ppl understand your point you should point out how nuclear diplomacy works.
It happened with north korea when even US forced to make concessions for starving country. USSR always like that in diplomacy, for example when France and UK tried to get back their rightful suez stuff USSR reee'd at them saying that they will gonna nuke. Basically if you have nuke you can ask for any bs and every other country forced to listen. Example with iran is just shows that you should get nukes fast and do not negotiate with retards. If Iran got real nukes they wouldn't have their facilities penetrated by 500 kilo bombs.
I think there already secret nuclear programs that one day country announces that they successfully tested it.

>>513258517
But my main fear that when people find out that nukes aren't powerful that they thought. Nuclear winter and fallout stuff it's just bullshit made up with retards who didn't calculate the rate of nuclear dust settling correctly and kept been repeating. Once when people learn that nukes aren't so harmful they gonna use it to left and right. Imagine world when some african dictator just does nuclear genocide and it will not be big deal. I think it just lead to nuclear normalisation and nukes will turn to conventional weapon like soviet generals intended.
Soviet nuclear plan was bombing cities and fortifications with nukes and quickly seizing them with motorised infantry and both US and Russian high comand knows that nukes aren't so dangerous.

My main talking point is that MAD is myth it's impossible to obliterate country sized like USA and RF, China with all nukes in the world combined. So nukes will just be another metric where big and strong countries win. US can tank LA and NY or other top ten cities bombed, Russia can survive nuclear obliteration of Moscow and Saint Petersburg bombed, same with china with it's Peking and Nanjing bombed, however Netherlands can't survive Hague and Amsterdam destroyed. Anyway nukes will bot be used to target cities rather military bases or high priority targets like US carriers.

>>513253341 (OP)
It's not even about making nukes, you gotta make a missile that would deliver the nuke. A dumb bomb that has nuclear warhead would be useless

>>513255311
>Maybe yes, maybe no, maybe sex, i don't know
Lmao, need to write it down

>>513259337
Thank you captain, without your effort we had to miss out such crucial detail.

>>513259337
There's a theory that megaton warheads are stored in big TV towers or other locations and if an enemy army takes the city, they will be detonated.

>>513253521
Build nukes. What are they gonna do about it?

>>513254613
The Korean War wasn’t a frozen conflict. American troops entered the war and so did Chinese which made the frontline shift rapidly.

The closest war we have that resembles Ukraine is Iran vs Iraq or the western front during WW1.

>>513253341 (OP)
Vietnam already has the knowledge base for it, the issue would be getting fissile material.
Probably Russia would be the only supplier, or maybe NK.

First step would be restarting the civilian nuclear programme which was put on hiatus years ago.

>>513259337
That is why the UK and Israel are not serious nuclear powers btw.

>>513259789
In theory you can use neutrino to force activate or spoil nuclear warhead, from other side of earth.
>>513260173
You can buy nuclear waste, it's decent for production of warhead and many civilian plants are proxy for military production. Or you can ask France.

>>513256456
They had reactors, civilian scientists, and (inactive) Soviet Nukes, it would have been trivial to reverse engineer them and start producing native ones.

Making a missile or warhead is not the hard part, it’s getting the material and having the scientists with the skills to assemble the bomb.

>>513260288
For a time Vietnam was partnered with Russia for creating a civilian nuclear programme, but it was put on hold (not cancelled)

I wonder if it is a Swiss scenario where they just built up the knowledge but left the final steps unfinished so if necessary they can be rushed quickly in an emergency situation.

There are still some plants active, but for “research” primarily.

This is a good solution for small countries, because it means you can rapidly roll out warhead production if necessary but don’t have the political baggage of actually having nukes.

nukes are fake and gay
the premise of "Ukraine has access to magic scifi weapon but decided to give it away because, uh, access code or something ok?" is beyond retarded. You need to be actually stupid to fall for it.
>>513259182
hey don't forget that our made up scifi weapons also cause emps, nuclear winter, hellfire, earthquakes and sharknados, you HAVE to pay taxes to pedos otherwise Russia will use this magic weapon to kill all of existence ok?
>>513260302
damn, Ukraine who has access to thousands of nukes couldn't replicate hyper advanced tech of *checks* 1945 USSR to make ultimate super weapon
damn that's crazy bro

>>513259337
Ukraine has missile production abilities and has/had lots of civilian rocketry expertise.

If they wanted I think a nuke would be very easy for them to rapidly produce.

>>513260522
Not didn’t want to, but pressured not to.
They could arguably make one now within a few months, but the global pressure would be overwhelming, and Russia might likely just nuke them first if they did.

Again this is the issue for minor powers who want a nuclear programme, either you become a global pariah like NK, you get invaded/threatened like Ukraine, or you do like the Swiss and get 90% of the way there then stop so all your knowledge base and industry is already built and it would take maybe weeks to go from that level to a bomb in an emergency.

Other solution is simply be Israel and have the global hegemon your lapdog.

>>513260522
Damn I forgot that nukes also causes AIDS!!! Trillion dollars for Israel, like roght now!!!
>>513260523
Ukraine was USSR arms production powerhouse and HAD capability to make warheads, but in 30 years they wasted it all industry for... what?

>>513260659
jeets and jeets 2.0: arab edition both supposedly have nukes yet somehow no one gives a shitg

>>513260878
> but in 30 years they wasted it all industry for... what?
American lies

>>513253341 (OP)
>There’s a real chance that a country which gave up its nukes for “security guarantees” will lose a fifth of its land to a nuclear power
Except that literally never happened in human history. In the example you think you're implying, the country in question never possessed the nuclear weapons, they were just stored on its territory by central government same as the US nukes are stored in California. So your premise is retarded to begin with.
>4) Russia already gave nukes to Belarus.
No, dispshit. Russia didn't give its nukes to Belarus. Russia is stationing its nukes in Belarus, with Russian personnel operating them and Russia having the launch codes. That's like saying the US gave its nukes to Germany and Turkey
5) Are we heading back to a 1960s-style world of grim stability
This is a far worse situation than 1960s.
>6) What, if anything, could “international community” actually do to stop the outcomes of the war from rewriting the rules for good?
Banning the expansion of NATO.

>year 2025 a.d
>still believing in jewish fairytales
the real question is why are people complete chattel when it comes to subscribing to fake&gay propaganda that was made during the same time as the holocaust? it's been largely proven that the so called nukes are theoretically impossible to produce.

>>513254345
Don't they call this the "lava flow" or something? But yeah, you're right.

>>513256631
Do you honestly not see how much of a cope that is? Even if it was true, they are still advancing and holding territory, so obviously, all those casualties aren't slowing them down. In which case, what's the point of constantly repeating this meme other than seethe and propaganda? I don't see videos of volunteer vans in Russia. We do in Ukraine. Do you really think people don't notice that you're just projecting the state of Ukraine onto Russia? When do all the headlines from the Kyiv Independent start becoming reality?
It's crazy the shit people will say, man. The level of delusions.

>>513259789
Swedish embassies all over the world have nukes in the basement.

>>513260878
>for what?
For the west european faggots smelling of imperialism.
Same shit fucked up my country as well after 89 revolution all the traitors sold the people s industry for money to western companies and we were left with nothing but a high debt while the debt was zero during last moments of ceausescu. This is how you end up with no industry and depending on imports of resources which you already have in the country but unable to exploit due to retarded leaders.

>>513261591
It s all international theater. All thise faggot leaders you see on tv already know between themselves. I dont think anything major will happen. They already know the plot line and what will follow. They just wont tell the public.

>>513253341 (OP)
>rewriting the rules
>implying

>>513253521
>destroy entire male population
>???
>third party talks shit about you on 4chan

damn...i guess you really won

>>513253341 (OP)
Ukraine obtaining nukes won’t save it. The war is existential for Russia, so it will nuke Kyiv into space the very first moment it spots functional nukes in Ukraine.
Same goes for other neighbour countries like Baltics or Taiwan.

The current geopolitical map of the world is a meme enabled by the Cold War. But if west continues trying to push post-cold war dominance, many borders will change to rebalance power to its natural stasis and nukes won’t prevent this natural process

> another kike nigger trying to paint ZOG-orchestrated genocide as a "war"
do not let him subvert! they did it to us, they'll try to do it to (you)!

>>513253521
Spray the borders with coupple dozen tons of multiresistant b.antracis lyophilisate.