>>513652446 (OP)
basically in the US we have zero real interest rates (0% inflation adjusted return on fiat money creation). this is because 'the market' (for money) is highly efficient ever since high frequency algorithmic day trading and dark pools took over stock exchanges. so a new disruptive technology (technically a university paper) called AI (i.e. attention, transformers) comes out and disrupts the entire theoretical basis of capital allocation worldwide (quadrillions of dollars need to be reallocated).
because of the disruptive nature of technological revolution, overallocation of capital is highly likely--because of an inherent human bias in executive leadership which mistakes survivorship with adaptation bias--the mistaken belief that one is in their current role because of ability instead of incompetence. just like tulip bulb mania leads to a capital misallocation crisis (bulbs could buy houses, but making bulbs did not involve making houses), we make AI that can replace human workers, but making good AI does not make good humans.
the mallocation eventually accumulates mostly due to sunk cost and gamblers fallacies. eventually the real return on fiat money creation becomes negative. companies that borrow at 0% and return -1% eventually die out (70 years later), and those than return -2% die out faster (in 35 years). in the ideal capitalist soak event (black swan scale like several tech sector cireses since y2k), most 'legacy' leadership companies return like -5% to -10% and can die out in a decade or less.
the worse the better basically--the more idiot management misallocates into the AI bubble, the quicker we all benefit from replacing idiot management. we need the bubbles, otherwise we dont have a business cycle, and we dont have moral hazard for executive leadership and corporate cultures. meanwhile, inflating the bubble deflates real prices in consumer goods; pizza and beer get a little cheaper since free money is being spent on GPUs instead.
